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January 16, 2013

Transaction Analysis

Soriano Finally Gets Paid

by R.J. Anderson

IN THIS ISSUE

American League

Texas Rangers

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
Washington Nationals

TEXAS RANGERS
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Signed RHP Kyle McClellan to a minor-league deal. [1/14]

McClellan underwent shoulder surgery last July, but he should be ready for spring training. That’s good news for the Rangers, who reportedly intend for McClellan, Justin Grimm, Martin Perez, and Robbie Ross to compete for the fifth starter’s job. If McClellan fails to win the rotation spot, he could find a home in the Rangers bullpen. Despite an arsenal heavier on depth than power, McClellan’s best years came in relief. At one point, he was mentioned alongside Jason Motte as potential heirs to Ryan Franklin’s throne. He’s never going to close games, yet he could serve as decent bullpen depth.

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Related Content: Jeff Karstens, Rafael Soriano, Cesar Izturis, JJ Putz

23 comments have been left for this article.

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lmarighi

I appreciate the context on the Nationals deal, R.J., as I started scratching my head about it as soon as I saw the headline. Put in context, it makes some sort of sense. It made the Nationals better, even if the cost was high. And a better ball-club is the real goal of the winter, right?

Jan 16, 2013 05:36 AM

rating: 2

Lindemann

I think the keys for the Nats were:

1. In addition to Storen's injury to start the season, Clippard was clearly gassed at the end of last season. The training wheels will be off Jordan Zimmermann this year, but Strasburg is still going to be babied a little to get through the year. Many bullpen hands will make lighter work.

2. Ted Lerner is 87 years old and worth nearly #4 billion. He was a Senators fan during their tenure in D.C. He's a businessman, and he knows about cycles. If he smells a championship, clearly he can find a way to shake loose a few nickles.

Jan 16, 2013 06:18 AM

rating: 5

Lindemann

edit: $4 billion

Jan 16, 2013 06:18 AM

rating: 0

DetroitDale

I have to agree "in context" (which is always the proper way to analyze anything) this is a good deal for the Nationals. The team is loaded with youth under control at every position, so if any team can afford to lose a draft pick, even under these draconian terms where you lose the signing money too, it's this one. Plus, if your first draft pick turned out as well as Soriano, you'd be happy. Lastly

I point to the other Nationals news item, Golden Boy Steven Strasberg's limit has been raised to 200 innings. 6 innings a start over 33 starts is 198 innings. Strasberg may fullfill the traditional ace role of putting his team in a position to win most of his starts, he's not fullfilling the other traditional role of giving the bullpen a night off. This makes the need for the elite reliever that much more urgent, and well worth the loss of the pick.

Jan 16, 2013 07:03 AM

rating: 2

comish4lif

Just wanted to point out that last year was Jordan Zimmermann's second season after the Tommy John surgery, and Zimmermann threw 195 2/3 innings and made 32 starts.

I'd expect them to treat Strasburg pretty much the same way in 2013.

Jan 16, 2013 07:43 AM

rating: 3

Doug Thorburn

BP staff

Just for fun, check out Gio Gonzalez's GS/IP for the past three seasons:

2012: 32 / 199.3
2011: 32 / 202.0
2010: 33 / 200.7

The guy is a solid six and out - the variation of IP's on his 2012 game log is remarkably low.

Looks like the Nats will be running the 6+1+1+1 pitcher strategy on a regular basis, with their light-workload starters and a trio of shutdown relievers.

Jan 17, 2013 00:24 AM

Richard Bergstrom

David Schoenfield said there was a tweet that Soriano has the third lowest WHIP among pitchers who threw at least 500 innings since 1920. Not sure if that's true, though I did find Mariano Rivera and Billy Wagner with lower WHIPs.

Jan 16, 2013 08:03 AM

rating: 0

jcjohnson

I think Bowden's report, which I assume to be accurate, erases any hedging on the cost aspect of this deal. Essentially, the Nats are paying Soriano $7 million/year in '14 and '15, and then a bit more than $2 million/year from 2018-'25. By then I won't be surprised if $2m is less than 1% of their player payroll.

Jan 16, 2013 08:12 AM

rating: 0

Robotey

so what does Lerner care about that, he'll be dead by then--gives new meaning to the term 'deferred'.

Jan 16, 2013 22:02 PM

rating: 0

prs130

Still not clear who's coming out of the bullpen to face the likes of Freeman, Heyward, Howard, and Utley.

Soriano is the kind of luxury the Nats can afford for the next two years, but they've still got a LOOGy-free bullpen. A playoff team should have two LOOGys, not zero.

Jan 16, 2013 08:35 AM

rating: 1

bobbygrace

Agreed -- this article changed my view of the Soriano signing, but one piece of missing context is the Nationals' decision in December not to re-sign Sean Burnett, saying that he "was not a fit financially." Burnett is a solid lefty reliever (caveat: he recently had a bone spur removed) at a lower price point. How does signing Soriano make more sense for the Nats than re-signing Burnett?

Jan 16, 2013 08:48 AM

rating: 3

bobbygrace

P.S. I should cite my source:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals-journal/wp/2012/12/12/the-details-of-sean-burnetts-contract-with-the-angels/

Jan 16, 2013 08:49 AM

rating: 0

Matthew Avery

If the playoffs are where your worries lie, a LOOGY is probably the easiest piece for a contending team to add around the trade deadline. If no internal option distinguishes itself, I don't think the Nats will trouble too hard finding someone come July.

That said, you'd still rather be sitting where Atlanta is in this regard, with O'Flaherty, Venters, and Avilan.

Jan 16, 2013 09:48 AM

rating: 2

NattyFan

Career OPS+ versus left-handed hitters:

Tyler Clippard - 85
Drew Storen - 95
Craig Stammen - 94
Zach Duke - 85
Bill Bray - 79

If Bray is healthy and makes the team, there's your LOOGY. Otherwise, it's a pretty well-rounded bullpen that gets both right-handed and left-handed batters sufficiently.

Jan 16, 2013 10:19 AM

rating: 4

BarryR

Additionally, Clippard actually is more effective vs. lefties, both last season and over his career.

Jan 16, 2013 11:35 AM

rating: 1

BPKevin

Concerning Rafael Soriano, I wonder if anyone is happier than the Yankees? By Soriano/Boras refusing the qualifying offer; New York didn't owe any buy out money, they don't have to pay a ridiculous salary to two closers and they now get Washington's first round 2013 draft pick. Please correct me if I am wrong on any of that.

Jan 16, 2013 09:46 AM

rating: 1

Kevin Ebert

The Yankees don't get the Nationals 1st round pick. They get a compensatory pick after the 1st round. The Nats pick is eliminated from the draft order.

Jan 16, 2013 10:37 AM

rating: 0

drmorris

Yeah, but that's a difference of three picks. Nats surrender 1-29, Yankees gain 1-32 (supplemental). That's a huge score for Cashman.

Jan 16, 2013 22:14 PM

rating: 0

drmorris

Correction: Nats surrender 1-30. It's a difference of two picks.

Jan 16, 2013 22:15 PM

rating: 0

NJTomatoes

What about Soriano's supposed strong preference to be THE closer and not the setup guy? Admittedly, I've never seen him quoted on this and am basing this on what I believe has been reported. If true, will there be a disruption to team love, peace and understanding?

Jan 16, 2013 10:22 AM

rating: 0

Rage of Snider

The best case scenario is that Soriano is worth 2 wins, maybe a little more, over the next two seasons. Even considering the marginal value of wins to a team like Washington, it doesn't seem like $28 million (or $24 million if Bowden is correct) is worth it, especially when you factor in the value of the lost draft pick as well. I get that Soriano is one of the more "reliable" relievers... but he's still a reliever. This wreaks of another Boras swindling

Jan 16, 2013 10:27 AM

rating: 0

BarryR

This was probably an easy sell. Let's write the scenario, shall we?

Boras: If you had Soriano last year, you would have been in the World Series. And you will be in the NLDS this year and if it's game one and you go into the ninth inning with a one run lead, who would you rather send out there, Drew Storen or Rafael Soriano? If you have to use Storen and it's a repeat of last year..well, you can buy something nice with money you saved, but it won't be a pennant.

Lerner looks at Rizzo. Rizzo shrugs.

Rizzo: It's your money.
Lerner: Yep. Make this happen.

***********
For all of Mariano's greatness, what makes him the best reliever ever, no questions asked, is his spectacular greatness in the postseason. That's where the pressure is highest. That's why Billy Wagner, for all his career numbers, wasn't a really great pitcher. Now Soriano doesn't have that much closer experience in the postseason, but he has gone through two pennant races and been pretty effective in October. When you're as rich as Lerner, there's no need to be cheap. He can't take it with him.

Jan 16, 2013 11:58 AM

rating: 3

davinhbrown

in other news.... the Pirates found a way to get out from under the Liriano contract that was never official, and shockingly save money.

Jan 16, 2013 14:41 PM

rating: 0

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Transaction Analysis: ... (01/09)

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