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November 23, 2009 So You NeedHelp Up the Middle
The up-the-middle positions are known as the skill positions for a good reason. Catchers, shortstops, second basemen, and center fielders are hard to find. And the ones who play the positions well defensively? They're even harder yet to find. And if you find one that hits well enough to make you forget he's "just" an up-the-middle guy, I'm sure there are some inquiring minds who would like to know how you found him. The plural of anecdote is not data, but let's consider the eight playoff teams of 2009. Of those eight, all but one (the Dodgers, whom I'll get to in a minute) developed at least three starters at their up-the-middle positions internally. The Yankees and Phillies, the two World Series teams, both developed all four positions internally (we'll assume for the sake of this exercise that being Rule 5'd twice, as Shane Victorino was, effectively restarts the story of your development). It bears noting that the Twins' center fielder was Carlos Gomez, who was signed and developed by the Mets, so in addition to Orlando Cabrera, there appear to have been two hired guns up their middle. But even Gomez was acquired as an unproven prospect, and his superior alternate, Denard Span, had been a Twin since he was drafted in 2002. The Dodgers are the notable exception, as they acquired both Rafael Furcal via free agency and Joe Torre's Orlando Hudson/Ronnie Belliard Wheel of Arbitrariness™ via a combination of free agency and trade. Nevertheless, all of these teams essentially built their defensive cores internally. The lesson to be drawn is that if you're looking to add more than one of these players on the open market, you might want to take seriously the possibility that you're not going to be competitive this year. This point holds especially true in this offseason, as the crop of defensive-minded players is thin and old. Add in a GM desperate to impress ownership, and baby, you got a stew goin'. However, as the Dodgers proved by adding Hudson last year, if all you need is a guy to give you a little boost, add a few wins, or perhaps provide extra depth, you can do very well with an up-the-middle free agent. With that in mind, here are the guys that are most likely to help their new teams. They may not be pretty, but they're good. 1. Mike Cameron: By UZR, Cameron has been worth a full win above average defensively in each of the last two seasons. His bat isn't depleted by age, either. If you look past the strikeouts and low batting average, you see a guy who gets on base at a league-average rate (.342 last year), but who adds enough raw power to make him an above-average offensive threat. Any team looking for a right-handed batter to hit in the six hole and track down fly balls would be wise to retain Cameron's services. Perhaps the best part? His low batting average and the fact that much of his value is tied up in his defense means he is only a Type B free agent, meaning that a potential suitor wouldn't be forced to give up any draft picks. 2. Mark DeRosa: He was one of those guys that provided almost no surplus value to the Braves while he was under team control. His stubborn refusal to dance with the one who brought him may make him a bad Sadie Hawkins date, but it has made him a very helpful role player in his 30s. Since leaving Atlanta, DeRosa has put up a .279/.354/.447 line while playing at least 10 games at every infield position plus both corner outfield spots. Though the Indians and Cardinals mostly deployed him at the hot corner in 2009, DeRosa is still at least a fair defender at the keystone. Like Cameron, DeRosa is a Type B free agent, meaning there will be several teams asking him to sign their dance cards.
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You mention Polanco's Type A status, but how likely is it that Dombrowski offers arbitration to a guy who stands to make between 5 and 6 million? I think the chance is very low.
To follow that up, Polanco has "Surprise!" accepted arbitration before on Ed Wade's watch in Philly.
When Polanco surprised Ed Wade in Philly, he did so when the plan was to install Utley, so he essentially became a $5M backup. In Detroit, there is no immediate replacement and I'm not sure Polanco wouldn't be worth what he would make in arbitration. He's been making around $5M a year, and given his age he probably wouldn't get a huge raise. He would probably get more money (or at least more years) on the open market. If I'm Dombrowski, and I don't purport to know his thinking, I offer him arbitration in a heartbeat.