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He's probably very handsome. Jonathan Arencibia
Toronto Blue Jays [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 22
6' 1"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 AUB 1A 249 31 17 1 3 25 14 56 0 0 -0.4 .254 .309 .377 .011 .209 .245 .319 .191 -27.9 54-C 0 0.6


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 5:54 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 475 47 27 2 10 48 28 129 4 2 -0.1 .238 .288 .379 -.169 .237 .289 .383 .236 -1.8 112-C 1 2.7
75o 458 42 26 2 9 45 25 126 4 2 0.0 .230 .278 .364 -.212 .229 .279 .367 .227 -6.4 109-C 0 2.2
60o 444 38 24 2 8 42 23 124 4 2 0.0 .224 .270 .351 -.247 .223 .271 .354 .219 -9.9 105-C 0 1.8
50o 433 35 23 2 7 40 22 122 4 2 0.0 .219 .264 .341 -.272 .218 .265 .345 .213 -12.3 103-C 0 1.5
40o 409 30 21 2 6 36 19 118 3 2 0.0 .210 .251 .321 -.326 .209 .253 .325 .199 -16.9 98-C 0 1.0
25o 378 24 19 2 4 32 16 112 3 2 0.0 .198 .236 .298 -.390 .197 .237 .301 .182 -21.4 91-C 0 0.4
10o 343 18 16 2 3 26 13 105 2 1 0.0 .187 .221 .274 -.454 .186 .222 .277 .162 -24.7 83-C -1 -0.2
Weighted Mean 430 33 23 2 7 40 21 122 3 2 0.0 .215 .259 .333 -.295 .214 .260 .336 .207 -14.4 102-C 1 1.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

58%

68%

19%

15%

1.01

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 22) 430 33 23 2 7 40 21 122 3 2 0.0 .215 .259 .333 -.295 .214 .260 .336 .207 -14.4 102-C 1 1.7
2009 (age 23) 444 38 26 2 7 43 22 119 4 2 -0.1 .226 .269 .353 -.243 .229 .275 .364 .219 -8.3 105-C 0 1.8
2010 (age 24) 433 40 25 2 9 45 24 109 4 2 -0.1 .237 .285 .374 -.181 .240 .291 .386 .233 -1.9 103-C 0 1.9
2011 (age 25) 422 38 23 2 9 44 23 108 3 2 -0.1 .231 .278 .368 -.205 .234 .284 .379 .227 -3.5 100-C -2 1.4
2012 (age 26) 391 36 21 2 10 42 22 99 3 2 -0.1 .238 .286 .387 -.161 .241 .292 .399 .237 -0.4 93-C -4 1.2
2013 (age 27) 307 27 18 2 7 33 19 70 2 1 -0.1 .249 .299 .395 -.122 .251 .305 .407 .245 1.4 75-C -2 1.2
2014 (age 28) 349 31 19 2 8 38 19 87 2 1 -0.1 .242 .288 .389 -.153 .244 .294 .401 .238 0.1 84-C -2 1.1

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .231 .277 .359
vs RHP .211 .253 .321
Split +.020 +.024 +.038
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -0.8 2.4 1.7 $1,825,000 -13.0 0.3
2009 -0.3 2.1 1.8 $2,100,000 -7.4 2.4
2010 0.2 1.7 1.9 $2,425,000 -0.6 3.6
2011 0.0 1.5 1.4 $1,875,000 -3.7 2.5
2012 0.2 1.0 1.2 $1,625,000 -1.0 3.2
2013 0.3 0.9 1.2 $2,050,000 1.3 3.8
2014 0.2 0.9 1.1 $1,850,000 0.5 3.6
Peak 9.3 $7,900,000 1.3 19.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .227 .213 .182 .207
2009 .230 .209 .186 .219
2010 .245 .225 .201 .233
2011 .245 .219 .203 .227
2012 .255 .229 .216 .237
2013 .258 .233 .219 .245
2014 .258 .224 .201 .238


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 15% 0% 58%
2009 19% 8% 63%
2010 36% 21% 69%
2011 44% 31% 68%
2012 64% 45% 73%
2013 62% 43% 70%
2014 54% 52% 65%

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