Kyle Drabek

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 6:21 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	6	9	0	24	24	131.0	144	75	61	19	50%	.284	-2	1.67	6.00	-1	6.28	9.8	4.5	3.6	1.3	-9.3	0.1	0.2
75^o	5	10	0	24	24	121.7	146	73	52	21	50%	.295	-8	1.79	6.86	-1	7.14	10.7	4.7	3.3	1.5	-20.8	-1.1	-1.1
60^o	5	10	0	23	23	115.0	146	72	45	23	50%	.303	-12	1.90	7.56	-1	7.83	11.3	4.9	3.1	1.8	-28.8	-2.0	-2.0
50^o	4	10	0	23	23	111.0	147	71	42	24	50%	.308	-15	1.96	7.99	-1	8.26	11.8	5.0	2.9	1.9	-33.2	-2.4	-2.5
40^o	4	10	0	22	22	105.0	146	70	37	25	50%	.315	-19	2.05	8.62	-1	8.87	12.4	5.2	2.7	2.1	-38.9	-3.0	-3.2
25^o	3	9	0	28	19	98.0	145	68	31	26	50%	.323	-27	2.17	9.42	0	9.65	13.2	5.5	2.4	2.3	-45.2	-3.7	-3.8
10^o	2	8	0	28	17	86.0	140	64	22	27	49%	.337	-37	2.37	10.92	0	11.12	14.5	5.8	2.0	2.8	-54.2	-4.7	-4.8
Weighted Mean	4	10	0	24	24	116.3	153	75	44	25	50%	.308	-15	1.95	7.95	-1	8.22	11.7	5.0	2.9	1.9	-31.5	-2.5	-2.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
2%	15%	48%	13%	1.37

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 21)	4	10	0	24	24	116.3	153	75	44	25	50%	.308	-15	1.95	7.95	-1	8.22	11.7	5.0	2.9	1.9	-31.5	-2.5	-2.6
2010 (age 22)	5	9	0	33	19	114.3	141	61	49	21	49%	.301	-14	1.77	7.03	-1	7.30	11.0	4.2	3.3	1.6	-16.5	-1.4	-1.1
2011 (age 23)	5	7	0	30	15	98.7	112	50	46	16	49%	.288	-10	1.64	6.33	0	6.61	10.1	4.0	3.6	1.4	-7.8	-0.5	-0.3
2012 (age 24)	4	6	0	29	12	86.7	101	41	47	16	49%	.296	-8	1.64	6.30	0	6.52	10.4	3.7	4.2	1.6	-6.4	-0.4	-0.2
2013 (age 25)	4	6	0	34	11	89.0	98	41	48	14	50%	.285	-7	1.56	5.76	0	6.01	9.8	3.7	4.2	1.4	-2.0	0.1	0.1
2014 (age 26)	5	6	0	39	9	90.3	100	41	47	14	50%	.288	-8	1.56	5.69	0	5.92	9.9	3.6	4.0	1.4	-1.3	0.1	0.1
2015 (age 27)	4	4	0	30	7	69.3	73	29	37	9	51%	.281	-5	1.47	5.17	0	5.42	9.4	3.3	4.1	1.2	1.1	0.4	0.4

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.279	.411	.480
vs RHB	.270	.372	.432
Split	+.008	+.039	+.048
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	-2.6	$400,000	-33.8	0.0
2010	-1.1	$400,000	-18.2	1.0
2011	-0.3	$400,000	-8.9	1.5
2012	-0.2	$400,000	-7.5	1.3
2013	0.1	$475,000	-2.7	1.7
2014	0.1	$650,000	-1.9	1.2
2015	0.4	$1,125,000	0.6	2.3
Peak	1.0	$575,000	0.6	10.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	7.14	8.26	9.65	8.22
2010	6.42	7.97	8.86	7.30
2011	5.83	6.80	7.85	6.61
2012	5.57	6.83	8.38	6.52
2013	5.27	6.47	8.27	6.01
2014	5.24	5.92	7.87	5.92
2015	4.84	5.83	6.16	5.42

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	13%	0%	2%
2010	35%	14%	9%
2011	46%	31%	12%
2012	51%	34%	14%
2013	65%	48%	13%
2014	68%	60%	11%
2015	74%	66%	9%

14

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Jeff Perry	1984	42		11	Paul McClellan	1987	22
2	Richard Rice	1984	31		12	Johnny Abrego	1984	21
3	Rob Wishnevski	1988	29		13	Jason Standridge	2000	19
4	Randy O'Neal	1982	28		14	Joe Mays	1997	19
5	Aaron Akin	1999	27		15	Mike Munoz	1987	19
6	Jim Hunter	1986	26		16	Michael Parisi	1995	18
7	Wayne Wilson	1987	23		17	Radhames Peguero	2000	18
8	Kevin Brown	1987	23		18	Rick Rodriguez	1982	17
9	Brandy Vann	1988	23		19	Mark Ratekin	1992	17
10	Tim Maki	1983	23		20	Ramon Taveras	1990	17

Player Comments

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2008

Doug's son and the Phils' 2006 first-round pick, Kyle Drabek underwent Tommy John surgery last June, which helped explain his poor performance up to that point.

2007

Kyle Drabek slipped to eighteenth in last year`s draft on the basis of personal issues, not baseball talent or pedigree (he`s Doug`s son). His fastball can run into the upper-90s, his curve was one the of the best in the draft, and he could have been drafted as a shortstop if he wasn`t such a good pitcher. Some of his off-field behavior can be explained by more or less normal adolescent immaturity. He got his butt kicked in the GCL, and didn`t handle failure well at all; how he responds in the coming year will tell whether he`s got the attitude to match his aptitude.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	PHL	Ind	1	3	0	6	6	23.1	33	11	14	2	55%	.408	-59	1.90	7.79	0	17.67	19.6	7.4	1.5	3.9	-24.5	0.0	-3.6
2007	LWD	A	5	1	0	11	10	54.0	50	23	46	9	56%	.266	-33	1.35	4.33	7	9.44	11.9	5.5	3.6	3.4	-20.4	0.0	-1.7
2008	PHL	Rk	0	1	0	4	4	12.0	6	6	6	0	59%	.176	-32	1.00	2.25	0	5.23	6.1	7.0	0.9	0.9	0.4	0.0	0.2
2008	WPT	A-	1	2	0	4	4	20.3	11	6	10	1	56%	.172	-29	0.84	2.22	5	7.58	5.7	3.8	0.9	1.4	-4.2	0.0	-0.2

Historical Stats