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November 19, 2009

Prospectus Today

The Opening Bell

by Joe Sheehan

Come the morning, all six-year players who have declared free agency can sign with new teams. This isn’t likely to trigger a wave of transactions—the players and their agents are technically not allowed to even talk to new teams until tomorrow—but it does begin the off-season feeding frenzy that will see hundreds of millions of dollars guaranteed to a group of players that, collectively, has nowhere to go but down.

Does that sound overly pessimistic? Perhaps, but gazing out upon a field of free agents led by two left fielders who are done with their twenties and a starting pitcher whose made 51 starts total the last two seasons, I’m reminded of what I wrote two years ago in advance of the Winter of Overpaid Outfielders:

There are no superstars in this market, none of the top 50 or even 75 players in baseball, and yet we’ll see top 30 contracts signed, because these players are the ones available, and the money is available, and the two finding each other is as inevitable as strained metaphors at the end of a too-long paragraph.

[As more teams prevent their superstars from hitting the market] the gap between the players who do become available and the true superstars grows, and the desperation of the teams who lack these talents to buy facsimiles grows, and the free-agent market goes from a tool to a trap.

Joshua had it right: the only way to win is not to play.

All of that applies this year, with the possible exception of the "top 50" line, as I suppose Matt Holliday squeezes in under that line based on his peak, one that is likely behind him. Again, that may be pessimistic, because a glance at Holliday’s three seasons leading up to free agency would seem to comfortably place him among the game’s better players.

Year     AVG  OBP  SLG   EqA   EqR  +/-    UZR
2007    .340 .405 .607  .317   121   +4   14.2
2008    .321 .409 .538  .316   104   +9    9.1
2009    .313 .394 .515  .311   112  +19    5.7

Since his MVP-caliber campaign of 2007, Holliday has remained one of the top 20 hitters in the game while playing above-average defense in left field. As Jay Jaffe wrote, it’s Holliday’s defense that makes him a better investment than Jason Bay, elevating him to the top ranking among this winter’s free agents.

I mean, how much difference is there between Holliday and this guy?

Year     AVG  OBP  SLG   EqA   EqR  +/-    UZR
2006    .282 .371 .514  .286   100   +2   -2.1
2007    .306 .400 .563  .322   101   -4   10.6
2008    .308 .410 .552  .328   124  +23   -3.7