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Albert Pujols
St. Louis Cardinals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
First Base
Bats R
Age 29
6' 3"
230 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

2009 Player Comment

It was perhaps Pujols’ finest season. He set career highs in OBP and OPS, and was over two wins of WARP more valuable than any other position player despite a June stint on the DL with a calf injury. The two-time MVP is simply the best player in baseball, and the finest first-base defender in the game. The tear in the ulnar collateral ligament of Pujols’ right elbow, first sustained while playing the outfield in 2003, grew severe enough during the season to necessitate serious discussion of a Tommy John procedure at year’s end. Pujols instead opted for an ulnar nerve transposition, typically a surgery performed on pitchers (Chris Carpenter had it done last winter as well), and not one that will keep Pujols from being ready for spring training. The need for an elbow reconstruction is potentially still present, but the troublesome joint has not kept Pujols from producing some of the best numbers in baseball history to this point.

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Projected Playing Time

Cardinals Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
1B 3 Albert Pujols 90 221 .325 40 15 44 3 .441 .634 24.0
1   2009 Total 90 221 .325 40 15 44 3 .441 .634 24.0

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 SLN MLB 634 119 33 1 49 137 92 50 7 2 3.2 .331 .431 .671 .486 .327 .431 .662 .352 85.1 140-1B 14 9.7
2007 SLN MLB 679 99 38 1 32 103 99 58 2 6 -1.3 .327 .429 .568 .398 .331 .436 .585 .336 74.9 150-1B 20 9.5
2008 SLN MLB 641 100 44 0 37 116 104 54 7 3 -0.2 .357 .462 .653 .600 .363 .468 .678 .371 98.7 135-1B 15 11.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 11:37 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 650 134 41 1 37 119 106 54 9 2 -2.3 .359 .467 .650 .609 .362 .470 .683 .376 103.8 152-1B 10 11.4
75o 641 125 40 1 35 115 101 55 8 2 -2.3 .347 .452 .625 .540 .350 .455 .657 .364 92.0 150-1B 10 10.4
60o 636 119 39 1 34 112 97 55 7 2 -2.2 .339 .443 .609 .496 .342 .445 .641 .357 84.8 149-1B 9 9.7
50o 635 117 38 1 34 111 96 55 7 2 -2.2 .337 .440 .605 .483 .340 .443 .636 .354 82.6 148-1B 9 9.5
40o 633 115 38 1 33 110 95 55 7 2 -2.2 .333 .436 .599 .466 .336 .439 .629 .351 79.8 148-1B 9 9.3
25o 627 109 37 1 32 107 91 56 6 2 -2.1 .324 .425 .581 .416 .327 .428 .611 .343 71.6 146-1B 9 8.5
10o 622 105 36 1 31 104 88 56 6 2 -2.0 .318 .417 .568 .379 .321 .419 .597 .337 65.6 145-1B 9 7.9
Weighted Mean 663 127 40 1 35 117 101 57 7 2 -2.2 .339 .443 .609 .456 .342 .445 .641 .352 87.8 155-1B 10 9.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

10%

42%

6%

3%

0.78

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 29) 663 127 40 1 35 117 101 57 7 2 -2.2 .339 .443 .609 .456 .342 .445 .641 .352 87.8 155-1B 10 9.7
2010 (age 30) 642 115 38 1 33 110 93 57 8 2 -2.0 .332 .430 .588 .416 .330 .427 .610 .343 72.0 150-1B 7 8.2
2011 (age 31) 655 119 40 1 31 108 99 58 7 2 -1.9 .335 .437 .581 .420 .333 .433 .603 .344 73.5 153-1B 7 8.4
2012 (age 32) 643 111 38 1 30 103 94 59 5 2 -1.7 .325 .426 .563 .370 .323 .423 .585 .336 63.3 150-1B 7 7.4
2013 (age 33) 614 100 36 1 28 104 86 57 4 2 -1.4 .320 .416 .553 .337 .318 .413 .574 .330 52.0 144-1B 7 6.2
2014 (age 34) 597 94 33 1 26 91 85 56 5 1 -1.2 .318 .414 .541 .314 .316 .410 .561 .326 43.9 140-1B 4 5.1
2015 (age 35) 604 92 33 1 26 92 81 57 5 1 -1.0 .309 .403 .528 .272 .308 .399 .548 .319 37.1 141-1B 3 4.2

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .351 .460 .626
vs RHP .332 .429 .586
Split +.019 +.031 +.040
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 62.7 10.0 9.7 $36,475,000 91.5 124.4
2010 54.4 7.0 8.2 $29,075,000 72.5 99.0
2011 55.8 7.0 8.4 $32,600,000 74.5 102.6
2012 47.9 7.0 7.4 $28,825,000 64.0 83.7
2013 41.3 7.0 6.2 $24,450,000 53.2 67.5
2014 37.7 4.0 5.1 $19,925,000 42.9 51.6
2015 32.9 3.0 4.2 $16,625,000 34.9 39.8
Peak 45.0 $143,350,000 398.6 528.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .364 .354 .343 .352
2010 .361 .350 .333 .343
2011 .359 .347 .326 .344
2012 .349 .334 .327 .336
2013 .353 .327 .310 .330
2014 .347 .327 .307 .326
2015 .333 .319 .305 .319


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 3% 0% 10%
2010 9% 0% 7%
2011 4% 1% 10%
2012 7% 2% 6%
2013 19% 9% 3%
2014 27% 12% 2%
2015 30% 17% 0%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

13

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Frank Thomas 1997 46 11 Dave Winfield 1981 24
2 Jeff Bagwell 1997 42 12 Barry Bonds 1994 22
3 Boog Powell 1971 39 13 Carl Yastrzemski 1969 22
4 Mike Piazza 1998 36 14 Jack Clark 1985 21
5 Albert Belle 1996 34 15 Kevin Mitchell 1991 21
6 Vladimir Guerrero 2005 34 16 Reggie Jackson 1975 21
7 Eddie Murray 1985 32 17 Todd Helton 2003 18
8 Fred McGriff 1993 31 18 Bobby Bonilla 1992 18
9 Stan Musial 1950 25 19 Glenn Davis 1990 18
10 Frank Robinson 1965 24 20 Manny Ramirez 2001 18

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Speaking of tarnished awards, Pujols was jobbed out of last year's NL MVP honors. He led the NL in WARP, thanks in part to his Gold Glove-caliber defense at first base. When September dawned, the Cardinals were stronger contenders than the Rockies and right there with the Phillies. Pujols hit .386/.486/.625 that month, as clutch a performance as you'll find. So why wasn't he a candidate in the voters' eyes? Because his teammates played terribly, while those of Matt Holliday and Jimmy Rollins played well. When the Cards were losing 12 of 13, Pujols was trying to carry them, batting .372/.453/.628. He was every bit the September player the other two were, but he didn't have the Phillies' bullpen or the Rockies' defense on his side. That, and not the performance of the players involved, is why Pujols was an afterthought and why the current thinking of the voting pool on the major awards is so flawed as to completely invalidate them.

2007

Very few players burst on the majors as fully-formed Hall of Famers. As this book was being written, Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn were elected to the Hall of Fame. While it`s possible there were some observers who felt certain by, say, 1983 or 1984 that they were looking at Hall of Famers in the making, there were undoubtedly just as many who saw Gwynn as a singles hitter with a bad body and Ripken as a guy who was too big for shortstop and would almost certainly be kicked over to third base as soon as someone better like Juan Bell came along. With Pujols it was clear almost right away what kind of player he was, which is why so many people expressed disbelief: They were seeing a player who, if he never grew, if he never peaked, if he just stayed right where he was, was going to be an annual MVP candidate. That`s almost exactly what happened, except that Pujols has been improving slightly each season. He had his best year yet in 2006, posting a career high WARP (12.9) despite missing 19 games with an oblique strain and other minor scrapes. That total is boosted by his stellar defense at first, an underrated aspect of his skill set. Perhaps the only question left to answer is whether or not he can take one more step forward and have a couple of otherworldly, inner-circle Hall of Fame seasons like those enjoyed by Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx. If it`s going to happen, it will be in the next few years.

2006

Absurdly great, and signed to a very favorable deal for the Cardinals. On the statistical anomaly front, check out Pujols` ABs for the last five years: 590, 590, 591, 592, 591. Only on a Tony LaRussa team could things be so rigidly organized. In terms of performance, only Barry Bonds compares. Pujols` line of .330/.430/.609 for the season is truly remarkable because he was suffering through plantar fasciitis for a good chunk of the season, and hitting a baseball without being able to plant your foot properly is exceptionally difficult. Even if there`s truth to the old rumor that he may be two years older than his listed age, Pujols is still capable of putting up Bonds-like numbers. He`s Mozart with a bat, a very smart baserunner, a plus defender at first base, and well-liked and respected in the community. For the city and the franchise, he`s the perfect superstar.

2005

I suppose writing the Barry Bonds comment would be more taxing in terms of the use of superlatives, but what do you say about this guy? In terms of career numbers compiled before age 25, Pujols ranks eighth in home runs, ninth in doubles and sixth in extra-base hits. Additionally, among those who logged at least 2,000 plate appearances before age 25, Pujols places third in SLG and ninth in OBP. In other words, stay tuned: he's a luminary in the making.

2003

If there’s something unfair, it’s that Pujols was labeled a defensive liability at third. He wasn’t Terry Pendleton (or Scott Rolen for that matter), but he was effective enough. The point isn’t particularly relevant now, of course. Assuming anyone still believes that Pujols is 23 and not around 27, you should have seen an attractive if mature-looking Mrs. Pujols in last year’s Sports Illustrated swimsuit edition. Whatever his actual age, Pujols will be an asset with the Cardinals for the next four years, whether he divulges his age to the organization and signs a multiyear deal or not. He should achieve that projection handily.

2002

He's older than advertised, by at least three years according to some estimates. It was apparently a not-so-open secret in his college program, but the party line is that he “graduated early” from high school in the Dominican Republic. From a practical standpoint, who really cares? His age is most germane to issues such as his likely career totals, not whether he can help the Cardinals. Pujols can mash the ball and will continue to do so into the foreseeable future. If he plays third base, he'll be the best third baseman in the National League in 2002.

2001

Albert Pujols is a very promising third-base prospect. It's probably early to call him grade-A, but he has one great year under his belt, a .324/.389/.585 performance at Peoria followed by a brief stint at Potomac in which he wasn't overmatched. He finished the season with three games in Memphis and will likely start the 2001 season at Double-A Arkansas. Pujols is not going to be a fast guy; he's already big at 205 pounds and has the frame of a power hitter. His defense is good enough that he can probably avoid the dreaded corner migration from third base to first base. This is someone to watch; he could be starting at a Cardinal corner sooner than anyone realizes.


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