Minor League Update: N... (11/10)
27 comments have been left for this article.BP Comment Quick Links
| Home | Unfiltered | Articles | Newsletter | Statistics | Fantasy | Events | Radio | Glossary | Search |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
November 11, 2009 Minor League UpdateNovember 11
Open Thread Experiment Grant Desme, OF, Athletics (AFL: Phoenix)Yesterday's stats: Did not play After pounding out 10 homers in his first 12 games, Desme hasn't hit a home run in his last eight games. He's still hitting .370/.457/.802, and I'm not sure there's a prospect generating more debate in baseball right now. I've talked to three scouts this week who saw him at various stages of the season. One saw him at Low-A Kane County, one saw him at High-A Stockton, and one saw him in Arizona. All three had wildly varying opinions on Desme, with projections ranging from never getting to the big leagues to hitting 30 home runs there. We know he has power, we know he has speed, we know he strikes out at a disturbingly high rate, and he's also incredibly streaky. Throw in the age factor because of all the injuries and there are just so many big positives and glaring negatives that it's just plain hard to figure him out. So how about an open thread on the subject? What is Grant Desme four years from now, an All-Star or in Triple-A?
Bonus round: Are we even sure he's better than the similarly skilled/tooled
Corey Brown?
BP Comment Quick Links oira61 (27086) I'm very interested in this thread, but I'm merely a fan with no professional experience or talent in evaluating minor-league players. Nov 11, 2009 09:42 AM alskor (39403) I have to agree with you - its just too early to tell. There are many possible outcomes for Desme and even the wild extremes wouldn't shock me. I feel like I just don't have enough information to even make an educated guess at this point. Should be very interesting to see what he does in 2010. Nov 11, 2009 10:31 AM mattseward (30445) I think that as with any prospect we are looking as outsiders at the possibilities of what he could become. He could be a minor league slugger, a Japanese All Star, a bench player, an every day regular or a star you really could point to evidence of any of them with him based on what he's done. Nov 11, 2009 10:59 AM IvanGrushenko (45528) The strikeouts seem to be mostly vs RHP. Maybe he can be at least a lefty masher. He hasn't been durable anyway...maybe he can't play 155 games annually. I wouldn't mind a Bobby Kielty outcome. Nov 11, 2009 11:16 AM JKiersky (40340) When reading about desme I always come back to rob deer. Or Mickey tettleton. Take out deers/ tettletons walk rates and add in good defense and speed and they seem to be similar players at the plate. My question is is there value in that kind of player in todays MLB? Of course I could be completely off.... Nov 11, 2009 11:25 AM ramjam36 (48297) Was that meant to be a joke? You're essentially stating that Desme, like Rob Deer and Tettleton, has power. Sorry to be a dick, I just don't see how they are comparable at all. Nov 11, 2009 11:39 AM ashitaka (32413) So if you swap walk rates with defense and speed and you have the same player? Sorry, but you could pick almost any two players and pull off this exercise. Nov 19, 2009 08:58 AM PeterBNYC (15402) Desme is indeed hard to evaluate. He will be 24, I believe, at 2010 SP. If his comparables are Deer and Tettleton, each started in MLB at 23, so he's a year late, but injuries explain that. Deer had a 12 year career and 230 HR, Tettleton a 14 year csareer and 245 HR. My view is, a guy with these talents, whatever his other skill deficits may be, belongs in the major leagues. The most difficult hitting skill is plate discipline. If any organization can teach him (assuming he's teachable), it's Oakland. Apparently, he fields and runs the bases reasonably well. Why then skepticism as to his having a career? He will have one, we just don't know what kind. Nov 11, 2009 12:09 PM randallappel (29693) I saw him three times in Arizona last week. He was consistently fooled on breaking balls out of the strike zone. Jack Cust was who immediately came to mind. Nov 11, 2009 12:24 PM jmoultz (440) I think I'd put it this way: Desme has history working against him in a couple of ways with his age, level and performance relative to the first two. Nov 11, 2009 14:22 PM brianpsmith (832) He just finished a season split evenly between low-A and high-A at age 23, with 30 homers but a ton of strikeouts. Let's assume part of the reason he started so hot in the AFL is that a lot of the pitchers had never seen him, and now that they've adjusted he's making outs. On my own observation as a fan, having seen him at Stockton and in the AFL, he takes a lot of bad swings, and he didn't appear all that fast to me, although if the scouts say so I can't dispute it. So unless he tears up double-A at 24 next summer it seems to me the odds are long for any kind of major league career. Nov 11, 2009 14:34 PM jmoultz (440) BTW, what's the little number in parenthesis under our Display Names? I missed that somehow. Mine says "440" right now. Nov 11, 2009 14:41 PM fawcettb (34177) It's probably your BP subscription #. Nov 11, 2009 14:50 PM matt2875 (31400) I disagree. If all you do is homer and walk, you can be on my team anytime. Kidding, of course. Nov 13, 2009 09:49 AM BP staff (2) The number is your subscriber number. If you use the comment threads for a while you'll probably associate these with the frequent commenters to some degree and be able to track through changes they make with their actual display name, for example. Nov 19, 2009 15:35 PM seamhead gypsy (19158) I saw Desme play in two games last weekend in the Arizona Fall League. I can only go by what I saw, and despite all the early hype, I'll avoid drafting him next year. Nov 12, 2009 06:40 AM hinnenra (31498) Some things I noted when looking at the numbers: Nov 12, 2009 08:29 AM antilm (26963) Even the best prospects come with a caveat, and not even a guy like Desmond Jennings is assured of anything in the major leagues. What you have to like about Desme is the fact that, unlike a number of toolsy prospects over the years , he has actually put up numbers at the minor league level (and now in the AFL). Nov 16, 2009 08:55 AM Louis Arighi (23967) You have an interesting thesis, but I'm not sure if I buy the "never develop hitters" comment. I'm thinking of Rickey Henderson, Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, Jason Giambi, Eric Chavez, and Miguel Tejada. And I'm sure someone will start yelling "steroids", but I will note that plenty of other organizations have developed hitters who have been accused of using steroids, as well as hitters who have actually tested positive. I don't really want to get into an argument where we separate hitters whom we "know" used, and those we "know" did not, as it will be based on our guesses. And this is not even discussing the changing of team's philosophies over time, or the change in personnel, etc. Nov 20, 2009 13:44 PM
|
Fantasy Focus: First Base Rankings Review
Several weeks (months?) ago, I heard someone say that Desme is likely to have an Eric Byrnes-like career. I could see that happening...seems to have a similar skill set. I doubt he'll ever post even one 30-homerun year at the big league level, but I think he'll get to 20-homers a few times and play good defense in left, steal a few bases and generally be a productive and useful player for a few seasons.
I heard the same Eric Byrnes comp and it made me wonder if EB is becoming the guy that people use to comp prospects they don't know what to make of - Aaron Cunningham was another guy comped to Byrnes. It seems like Desme has more power than Cunningham, but his age relative to level makes me unsure. I really think only time will tell on this one. Not to be a party pooper or anything.
I definitely think the Eric Byrnes comp is thrown out a little too much. He was an exception, not the rule. So, whenever I see the comp I figure that prospect has some long odds of having a successful big league career, but someone squinted and thought the guy had some outside chance of having at least one big year and couple decent ones in the majors. It also may be code for high effort as well.