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October 8, 2009

Kiss'Em Goodbye

Detroit Tigers

by Baseball Prospectus

Baseball Prospectus' Pre-season Projection: 79-83, third place
Actual record: 86-77, second place

This one will be hard to get past.

Keith Law of ESPN.com's Take

What went wrong: Detroit's lineup looked like a contender's this spring (and last spring as well), but it turned out to be far less productive than management anticipated. The Tigers finished 10^th in the AL in runs scored, and were worse after the break, scoring fewer second-half runs than Kansas City and Baltimore. They received virtually no production from four spots on the field, disappointing output from their DHs, and Curtis Granderson's inability to hit left-handed pitching was as bad as Gigli. The rotation was their strength for the season's first half, but Edwin Jackson's lack of command caught up with him, as he posted a 5.07 ERA after the break, also allowing 17 homers in just 92 innings. Trade deadline acquisition Jarrod Washburn imploded on arrival, throwing up a 7.33 ERA in eight starts. And yet, despite all of this, the Tigers had multiple chances to sneak into the playoffs, but Jim Leyland mismanaged his pitching staff through the one-game tiebreaker to the Twins, pulling Rick Porcello too soon and leaving Fernando Rodney in too long.

Biggest puzzler on the drawing board: Not to excuse Leyland's bumbling steerage on Tuesday night, but the Tigers' bullpen was shaky all year and two of their primary guys are headed for free agency in Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney. Rodney has the closer's mantle but not closer-quality command—and he has proven that he can't work four-inning stints, which is apparently something Leyland demands of his closers once in a blue moon. Ryan Perry has closer-level stuff and should eventually take on that role, but his control isn't there yet, and sliding him into the ninth inning just leaves a void in the seventh and eighth if Lyon and Rodney leave. They do have some power arms in their system, including Cody Satterwhite and Scott Green, but they'll need to add at least two arms to have a playoff-caliber bullpen in 2010.

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16 comments have been left for this article.

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code of conduct

FalcoT

(47044)

Dan Duquette = Dave Dombrowski

Oct 08, 2009 09:57 AM

rating: 3

Gregjitsu

(46705)

I could be wrong, but I would have sworn that Jacob Turner went about, or, 260 picks higher than 269th?

Oct 08, 2009 09:57 AM

rating: 6

dwinning

(31741)

how is signing a toolsy SS with "physical gifts ... pedigree and makeup" a "miss"? That seems 2 stupid 4 words 2 describe.

*you get it, I used "2" instead of "too" and "to" and "4" instead of "for" because they sound the same and because I'm edgy and hip*

Oct 08, 2009 10:31 AM

rating: 3

havybeaks

(38766)

Surely you can't fault the Tigers for not having "a star player as good as Joe Mauer"? Nobody besides the Twins and Cardinals can boast such a player.

Oct 08, 2009 11:03 AM

rating: 2

SaberTJ

(10045)

That statement wasn't faulting the Tigers. It was simply saying that the Tigers don't have an offensive star big enough to cover up their weak lineup.

Something Mauer seemingly was able to do.

Oct 08, 2009 11:32 AM

rating: 0

havybeaks

(38766)

Oops, yeah you're right - I misinterpreted that phrase. Thanks!

Oct 08, 2009 11:50 AM

rating: 0

Бей

(40517)

Hopefully they can rely on Verlander next year. The dude threw 498 pitches more than the #2 and racked up nearly 3x as many pitcher abuse points as #2. I believe Timmy the Freak Linceum was #2 on both.

Oct 08, 2009 14:14 PM

rating: 0

hotstatrat

(22689)

Inge might not be such an inheritently bad player. He was an all-star in the first half and hampered by knee problems in the second half. If that can be corrected, he may not actually be an all-star, but he wouldn't be such a sink-hole.

Likewise, if Carlos Guillen could return to full health, he could be an above-average leftfielder. I recognize that injury proneness is part of a player's talent base, but I'm just trying to point out that there is at least some chance of a little impact there. The back-ups Raburn & Thomas weren't so shabby, well, at least not Raburn.

Aubrey Huff and Marcus Thames should have been adequate at DH. Huff was awful, but can provide impact in a good year.

Is Adam Everett still a plus defender? Isn't Ramon Santiago the better all-around shortstop now? Yes, that is a bit of a hole especially with Cory Inge have a disapppointing year. However, Santiago might deserve a full time shot next year.

Oct 08, 2009 14:21 PM

rating: 0

sandriola

(31950)

GM David Chadd? Dan Duqette? Jacob Turner 269th overall?

Methinks this article was rushed.

Oct 08, 2009 15:36 PM

rating: 2

Richard Bergstrom

(36532)

I'm glad they got some commentary from Keith Law though.

Oct 08, 2009 18:14 PM

rating: 3

mkapellas

(17748)

Yes, especially the timely Gigli reference. Apparently Ishtar wasn't available.

Oct 08, 2009 18:27 PM

rating: 0

Richard Bergstrom

(36532)

Ishtar was a good movie... nor am I the type to use one word/reference to dismiss an entire section without just cause, especially if the alternative is an agreeable sock puppet (Olney).

Oct 09, 2009 01:33 AM

rating: 2

whatevergong82

(30136)

Good article. The Tigers have a lot of issues to deal with in the offseason, from whether to resign Rodney and/or Lyon, the Polanco situation, and the dead contracts on the team.

Detroit needs a major infusion of starting offensive talent, especially in the outfield and one of the infield positions other than first. The Detroit Tigers also needs to improve the pitching staff, from adding another quality starter, to stabilizing the bullpen. The Tigers could use another left hander in the bullpen, because while Ni was valuable, he's only good for a couple of batters. Whether they can accomplish these badly needed upgrades in the offseason remains to be seen.

I wish Tigers General Manager Dave Dombrowski the best, because it won't be easy for him to do this.

Oct 09, 2009 17:34 PM

rating: 0

ScottyB

(23917)

Is their collapse worse than the Mets two years back? (I'd like to pass that onus on to some other fanbase)

Oct 12, 2009 09:52 AM

rating: 1

garmoore

(30646)

It's easy to forget that almost no one seemed to give this team a chance of even playing .500 ball this year (I'm looking at you, BP). I don't remember a single publication or TV pundit that paid any attention to this team. They had a good pitching staff, played good defense, and couldn't hit a lick. They may be headed for a down season in 2010, owing to the heavy contracts that are winding down. But their minors seem to be producing some players that can give them some hope. Their arms should stay good. But for now, let's give some credit where credit is due. The team outperformed expectations, even if they didn't make it to the playoffs.

Oct 12, 2009 13:04 PM

rating: 2

Christina Kahrl

BP staff

(11)

Except that a 79-83 projection is essentially a projection that says this was a .500 team, you've got a good point. Speaking as one of the few who liked the Jackson/Joyce deal from the Tigers' perspective, several things went their way. Ideally, they'll shore up the offense, with Avila and Sizemore of course, but also ideally not just settling for promoting those two into regular roles.

Oct 30, 2009 13:41 PM

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<< Previous Article

Playoff Prospectus: Do... (10/07)

<< Previous Column

Kiss'Em Goodbye: Atlan... (10/04)

Next Column >>

Kiss'Em Goodbye: St. L... (10/12)

Next Article >>

Future Shock: AFL Prev... (10/08)

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