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October 8, 2009

Future Shock

AFL Preview, Part Two

by Kevin Goldstein

We continue our preview of the Arizona Fall League, which opens play next week, with a look at the players on the corners, infield and outfield alike.

First Base

Best of the Best: Dustin Ackley, Mariners (Scorpions)

The second overall pick in June, Ackley will make his unofficial pro debut in the AFL, and while he's likely to move to the outfield next spring, he'll probably stay at first base for now, as the Mariners don't want to add a position switch to his plate, and the Scorpions' roster is already loaded with outfielders. Ackley should move quickly, and as an outfielder, will be a dynamic threat capable of hitting .300+ with average to plus power, great plate discipline, and enough speed to steal 30 bases or more annually. In other words, he could be a franchise-level talent.

Unheralded: Brandon Waring, Orioles (Desert Dogs)

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16 comments have been left for this article.

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carp1626

(39313)

Vitters is the best prospect at third? I though it wasn't a question of if, but when he'll have to move to first, and an OPS barely over .600 for an age apropriate level (for his draft position) doesn't sound promising especially for the prospects listed below him.

Oct 08, 2009 10:21 AM

rating: 0

mswain784

(37716)

The prospects below him aren't very good. Moustakas and Dominguez are both from the same draft and struggled at the same level. The difference is Vitters had a wrist injury and demolished the Midwest League, while also having a better swing.

Oct 08, 2009 10:29 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

What he said.

Oct 08, 2009 21:22 PM

carp1626

(39313)

He demolished the same league that Moustakas did in the second half last year, Moustakas has a better chance to stay at third can handle a move to the outfield and has shown more consistent power. Dominguez is going to play third and struggled at AA not through two seasons of A ball.

Oct 08, 2009 10:44 AM

rating: 0

mswain784

(37716)

Dominguez played in the same league as Vitters this year, and hit .262/.333/.420. Not terrible, but not particularly good either. In 2008, his line away from his hitter friendly Greensboro home park was .246/.296/.392.

You are basing all this criticism of Vitters off < 200 ABs in a very pitcher-friendly park while dealing with a wrist injury (ask David Ortiz how that feels). Looking at the body of work, his career MiLB line is .287/.321/.449. Compare that to Moustakas' .263/.322/.447, and Dominguez's .258/.326/.424 at comparable levels, combined with scouts loving Vitters' swing and projecting more power down the road, and you can see why he's the best offensive prospect.

His defense is another story, and he has some major work to do to become even adequate at 3B, but a bat will carry you to the majors, and they'll worry about a position later.

Oct 08, 2009 11:38 AM

rating: 0

carp1626

(39313)

Their career lines can't be compared directly because Vitters has only put up impressive lines when he was in inferior leagues than Moustakas and Dominguez. Moustakas and Dominguez spent their first full season in Low A, Vitters was sent down after 12 at bats, and then dominated rookie ball. This year he dominated MWL then struggled when moved to the same level as the other two. I'm not only basing my opinion on his 200 at bats at an appropriate level, but that he has only earned that many at bats while in the same time the other two have over 800.

Oct 08, 2009 12:37 PM

rating: 0

Jeff

(52254)

I think Dominguez is the better prospect simply because of the defensive differences and the walk rates. Vitters's is simply atrocious, while Dominguez continues to improve his despite being challenged:

2007 - GCL: 4.8% in 22 PAs
2007 - NYPL: 2.6% in 38 PAs
2008 - SAL: 7.5% in 381 PAs
2009 - FSL: 9.1% in 429 PAs
2009 - SOU: 12.6% in 114 PAs

His AA numbers look a lot more respectable if his BABIP isn't a lowly .225.

Oct 08, 2009 13:21 PM

rating: 0

SC

(27400)

Is Derek Norris from the Nats out of the AFL with his broken hamate bone? How does the injury and potential missed time impact your opinion of him?

Oct 08, 2009 11:33 AM

rating: 0

khaulotte

(36882)

What do you think of Mark Hamilton? Isn't he playing 1B? OPS in AA/AAA was 900+....

Oct 08, 2009 11:55 AM

rating: 0

rweiler

(21660)

Do you have any insight into how teams decide which players should be playing in the AFL? For xample, I was kind of surprised to see Brandon Crawford playing instead of, say, Brock Bond, as Bond put up considerably better numbers at AA.

Oct 08, 2009 13:00 PM

rating: 0

Nick Carter

(39933)

Is Freeman's lack of power something that will come as he gets used to AA next year or a possible worry for the future?

Oct 08, 2009 13:49 PM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

I think it's a legitimate concern.

Oct 08, 2009 21:23 PM

Ira

(1386)

Smoak isn't going to the AFL?

drat.

Oct 08, 2009 15:03 PM

rating: 0

mattchless

(51748)

Darryl Strawberry mentioned in two consecutive columns...I love it! My favorite all time prospect/player. First you mentioned Heyward and now Domonic Brown. Let's hope one can bring that type of dynamicism to the game.

Oct 08, 2009 21:38 PM

rating: 0

antonio

(24286)

Adam Loewen improved significantly in the 2nd half...another reason for cautious optimism about his development as a hitter.

Oct 10, 2009 17:05 PM

rating: 0

esmcmaha

(1782)

Rosters show Ackley playing for one of the Peoria teams rather than Scottsdale.

Oct 12, 2009 15:34 PM

rating: 0

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<< Previous Article

Kiss'Em Goodbye: Detro... (10/08)

<< Previous Column

Future Shock: AFL Prev... (10/06)

Next Column >>

Future Shock: Venezuel... (10/09)

Next Article >>

Relative League Qualit... (10/08)

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