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He's probably very handsome. Derek Norris
Washington Nationals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 20
6'
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 NAT Rk 151 16 6 2 4 15 25 38 2 1 -2.3 .203 .344 .382 -.461 .144 .245 .273 .178 -38.0 13-C -4 -2.5
2008 VER A- 302 42 12 0 10 38 63 56 11 9 -2.7 .278 .444 .463 -.108 .217 .358 .357 .259 1.7 46-C -1 1.3


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/8/09 1:45 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 594 81 30 1 17 59 91 124 10 6 -0.1 .241 .364 .411 .015 .244 .367 .430 .279 23.3 139-C -11 4.2
75o 555 64 26 1 14 51 79 122 9 5 -0.1 .222 .339 .374 -.092 .225 .342 .391 .259 7.9 130-C -11 2.6
60o 532 56 24 1 13 47 72 121 8 5 -0.1 .211 .324 .352 -.153 .214 .327 .368 .246 0.0 125-C -11 1.7
50o 525 53 23 1 12 45 70 120 8 5 -0.1 .208 .320 .346 -.171 .211 .323 .362 .243 -2.3 124-C -11 1.5
40o 509 48 22 1 11 42 65 119 7 5 0.0 .201 .310 .332 -.212 .204 .313 .347 .234 -7.0 120-C -10 0.9
25o 492 43 20 1 10 39 61 117 7 5 0.0 .194 .300 .318 -.254 .197 .302 .332 .225 -11.6 116-C -10 0.4
10o 459 35 17 1 8 33 53 114 6 4 0.0 .182 .281 .293 -.328 .184 .284 .306 .208 -18.9 109-C -10 -0.5
Weighted Mean 534 55 23 1 12 46 71 122 8 5 0.0 .208 .320 .346 -.184 .211 .322 .361 .240 0.4 126-C -12 1.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

29%

56%

16%

3%

1.25

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 20) 534 55 23 1 12 46 71 122 8 5 0.0 .208 .320 .346 -.184 .211 .322 .361 .240 0.4 126-C -12 1.5
2010 (age 21) 546 61 24 1 14 50 74 115 8 6 0.0 .220 .332 .368 -.131 .220 .330 .379 .251 4.2 128-C -10 2.1
2011 (age 22) 493 57 22 1 15 50 69 101 9 6 0.1 .229 .343 .395 -.071 .229 .341 .407 .263 9.5 116-C -11 2.3
2012 (age 23) 519 63 23 1 16 56 72 102 8 6 0.1 .234 .347 .405 -.047 .234 .345 .418 .267 10.9 122-C -11 2.2
2013 (age 24) 506 65 22 1 16 55 78 94 9 6 0.1 .244 .366 .419 .012 .244 .364 .432 .278 14.1 119-C -11 2.4
2014 (age 25) 472 58 22 1 15 52 73 89 8 6 0.1 .241 .363 .421 .006 .240 .360 .434 .276 11.5 112-C -12 2.0
2015 (age 26) 447 54 22 1 15 50 69 79 7 5 0.1 .246 .367 .429 .027 .246 .365 .443 .279 10.7 106-C -6 2.0

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .224 .337 .372
vs RHP .204 .312 .333
Split +.020 +.025 +.040
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -4.7 -12.0 1.5 $1,550,000 -2.0 3.4
2010 1.6 -10.0 2.1 $2,450,000 2.8 6.2
2011 7.8 -11.0 2.3 $3,375,000 7.4 9.0
2012 10.5 -11.0 2.2 $3,750,000 8.3 11.7
2013 16.6 -11.0 2.4 $4,975,000 11.9 16.3
2014 14.5 -12.0 2.0 $4,375,000 9.7 13.6
2015 15.4 -6.0 2.0 $5,125,000 11.3 15.1
Peak 13.0 $16,550,000 62.7 80.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .259 .243 .225 .240
2010 .270 .249 .232 .251
2011 .283 .260 .236 .263
2012 .296 .262 .238 .267
2013 .306 .281 .242 .278
2014 .297 .276 .244 .276
2015 .305 .269 .249 .279


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 3% 0% 29%
2010 17% 7% 47%
2011 26% 15% 55%
2012 35% 19% 52%
2013 39% 30% 56%
2014 52% 39% 52%
2015 65% 46% 51%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

12

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Mike Whitlock 1997 40 11 Steve Lomasney 1998 24
2 J.D. Closser 2000 39 12 David Lawson 1993 23
3 Nicholas Weglarz 2008 36 13 Joey Votto 2004 23
4 Brian Deak 1988 34 14 Bo Dodson 1991 23
5 Jeff Goldbach 2000 31 15 Mike Napoli 2002 22
6 Dusty Ryan 2005 29 16 Brent Clevlen 2004 22
7 Jesus Cota 2002 29 17 John Roberts 1994 22
8 Norm Tonucci 1986 27 18 Michael Restovich 1999 21
9 Nick Johnson 1999 27 19 Jack Cust 1999 21
10 John Roskos 1995 26 20 Mike Glendenning 1997 21

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