The real test for the Braves administration will come when we see who is being sent down to make room for McLouth. As Joe says, if it's Blanco, the deal is less good. At least it is until Schafer re-learns how to hit and takes over CF for good. If it means Frenchy gets demoted or Anderson DFAed, then it's a sizable upgrade.

Between demoting Schafer, dumping Glavine, acquiring McLouth, and promoting Hanson, the Braves have become a significantly better team in the past 3 days.

I am voting with the other unnamed BP analyst on this one.

276/356/497 last season with 76 extra base hits. Signed for ages 27-28-29 at $5.5M per year which is well under market. Gold Glove, whether you agree with the voters or not.

Seems like an awfully meager return to the Pirates for what they gave up.

I don't see McLouth playing LF for the Braves. For one, Garrett Anderson has been terrible, but some of that is the slump he was mired in to begin the season. He's up to a 775 OPS over the last month and has hit a couple homer runs.

Meanwhile Gregor Blanco had a .259 EQA last year and his defense in CF is basically a wash with McLouth's. Decent, but nothing to write home about.

Early slump aside, the question is: would the Braves really think Nate McLouth's defense in LF is worth the difference in batting between Blanco and Anderson (who has a .238 EqA this year, but was around .275 the last two, and is hitting better lately).

Ideally, they'd let Francoeur find a new home, play Blanco in Center, McLouth in RF, Anderson/Diaz platoon in LF. More likely, they would just play McLouth in CF and let Francoeur continue to try to hack his way back into relevancy.

A breakdown of the Pirates' outfield defense from our good friend John Perrotto along with discussion of the shift they use...

http://www.tribune-democrat.com/prosports/local_story_155001701.html

I really don't see the logic of the trade on the Pirates side. Both pitching prospects are pretty ho-hum, and with McCutchen in center is there ANY chance Gorkys Hernandez's bat can hold down a corner OF spot? Plus McLouth is signed to a pretty affordable deal.

Thank you for saying what I've been thinking about the "fourth outfielder" concept for some time. Players of McLouth's ilk prove to be capable, valuable starters for Major League teams not in the megabudget category.

Also, I wonder about the extent to which "the industry has voted" in this deal. Is it clear that McLouth was shopped aggressively before settling for a trio of players I see as middling at best? Another rich pennant contender in the NL East, and at one in the NL Central, could use an upgrade in the outfield almost as much as the Braves could have done.

Pointing to one trade and saying it's the "turning point" flies in the face of everything that's been written on this site about sample size, no?

If a player had a horrible half-season, then had one good game, you wouldn't sit here and say "this is the turning point"? Joe, you're the one who always (and correctly) points us to how stupid looking at just April stats are?

Maybe you're right, in that this trade will signal the dawning of an era where defensive is evaluated by metrics as opposed to gold gloves and highlight reels. But you need more than one trade to make such a claim.

McLouth's Eqa the past three seasons: .296, .304, .299. ML average for CF this year is .267.

One reason for this is his baserunning. He's stolen 64 bases and been caught 5 times in his career.

Sure, he's stretched at CF, but he's good enough to stick and his bat (and baserunning) more than makes up for it.

He's not a star, but I don't see a star in the package the Braves gave up, either.

So, yeah, all in all, I'd agree that this is a good all around trade.

Boy do I disagree...An ever improving Pirates club, that was one or two bats away from being competitive in their division, traded one of their best players and got back minor league roster-filler with the potential to become slightly better than replacement value major league roster-filler.

PECOTA has McCutcheon as an 850+ OPS guy through 2013. That's a major league outfielder. I agree he's no gold glover in center, but he'd be swell in left or right. If McCutcheon is anywhere near ready, the outfield of McClouth McCutcheon and Morgan puts 3 first class defensive players behind the their young pitching staff. That combo also has way more offensive potential between now and 2013 than an outfield with Gorkys Hernandez or the overrated Brandon Moss (current OPS .749)--who is the definition of a perfect 4th outfielder (And would be a way better 4th outfielder than say, Gorkys Hernandez, f'rinstance). Plus, if Moss DOES develop, they've got 4 first rate big league outfielders.

If I was a Pirates fan, I'd be apoplectic.

This trade only makes sense to me if Hernandez and Morton have more value than we think. Gorkys is 21 and getting on base at better than .360 in AA. Morton has impressed people before. But for an affordable outfielder at peak value? Meh. The Pirates must have a secret love for one of these prospects, because there's got to be a team out there willing to give up more for McLouth.

But really, in the end, this trade breaks a rule that I think all GMs should follow: don't trade for Braves prospects. Somehow that organization always knows which of their seemingly decent minor leaguers aren't actually any good. Maybe they've got Dionne Warwick on contract. And this trade sure displays her Value Over Replacement Psychic.

Here you have it: Life as a baseball fan here in Pittsburgh.

Perhaps the Pirates just needed to dump payroll (even if it is a *mere* $15 million or so) to allow them financial resources for the upcoming draft.

Some cities have to "Wait 'til next year..."

Here in Pittsburgh it seems like we have to "Wait 'til....well, just keep on waiting". *sigh*

Joe, I get what you're saying here, but I disagree with both your opinion of Mclouth and with your conclusion.

Mclouth will likely obp ~.360 and slg .480 for the next three seasons (this is PECOTA'S projection, not mine). His platoon split is not particularly severe (and he has actually reversed that split so far this season). The NL average ops for right fielders in 2008 was .803 and for left fielders it was .788. Mclouth will likely be significantly better than both these marks. Additionally, he is a high-percentage base stealer and in his career has been replacement-level defensively at both corners. How is this a fourth outfielder? How many NL teams would love this production from either corner? You have called him a fourth outfielder before, and I don't get it. I would love to hear your argument for describing him as such, and you might just able to convince me. But please back it up.

For this reason, I don't think this was two teams making a smart trade and valuing their players properly. I think it was one team pulling the trigger too early and dumping its best offensive player who was coming off an admittedly career season and was also signed to a manageable contract. I'm not saying the Pirates should have gotten a Jason Heyward-level prospect here, but I do think they should have at least gotten a little more upside. Hernandez doesn't have much of a place with the organization if McCutcheon is around (do you really think his bat will ever be good enough to play in a corner?), Morton isn't going to be more than a marginal 5th starter, and Locke, while having upside, is a huge question mark.

What about saving money for amateur player acquisitions? Lots of people have reported that the Pirates might go cheap in the draft to sign Sano. This suddenly frees up a lot of money that could go into signing higher-upside players than Hernandez, Locke, and Morton. Shouldn't we be considering that angle?

Bashing Gold Glove as a metric is more important here at BP than bashing teams that are continually rebuilding on the cheap. Acceptance of the path taken by San Diego, Pittsburgh, and to a lesser extent, Oakland, should be the real outrage.

Pittsburgh has been going through a host of OF to find their CF in the past few years. Now that the find him and sign him to an incredibaly reasonable contract (even better on the age / dollar curve than Bay), they get rid of him to start the process all over again - by the author's own admission "To put it another way, he could be their next Nate McLouth."

Cleveland was successful in the 90s locking up players before they became free agents. Pitttsburgh obviously has decleared, with this trade, that they can't even field a trade to that standard. And Oakland was getting rid of players even as the approached ARBITRATION let alone FREE AGENCY.

Isn't it time for these franchises to find new ownership rather than continuing the charade? That should be your real outrage Joe - not demeaning a player that worked very hard for every achievement he's garnered because you think he got one you think he didn't deserve.

What is more likely?

1- The entire baseball community suddenly reached the correct measurement of a player's defensive worth.. and correctly judged the players trade value based on his defensive worth.

Or

2- The Pirates just traded for lesser prospects than what another organization could have gotten for McClouth.

Conflict resolution refers to this as "Win Win Win".
- Michael Scott

OK ... Here's the translation

Joe would have you believe that the Pirates all of a sudden got as smart as he is because they just recognized some fielding metric that says Nate McLouth is a piece of crap ...

when in fact the Pirates are just making the same stupid moves they have for the last 17 years ...

"They traded a player at or near the peak of his value, whose useful career would not extend into their next run of success ..."

NEXT RUN OF SUCCESS ... you have got to be kidding ... there will be no next run of success just as there hasn't been one in the last 17 years ...

One aspect of the trade that surprised me a little bit is that the Pirates are losing a lefthanded hitter for a righthanded hitter. According to BBHQ, PNC Park has a -28% LHB HR 3-yr. park factor, vs. a nearly-flat RHB HR factor. McLouth shows a +40-point career home/road SLG pct. differential, which is pretty decent-sized, given the overall SLG suppression of PNC. Turner Field has actually reduced LHB HR by 15% and has boosted RHB HR by 7%. Obviously, you don't build your team solely on handedness park factors, but it does seem like McLouth would have a bit more raw value in Pittsburgh.