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Yadier Molina
St. Louis Cardinals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 26
5' 11"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Cardinals Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 7 Yadier Molina 80 182 .278 15 3 19 1 .344 .364 3.0
1   2009 Total 80 182 .278 15 3 19 1 .344 .364 3.0

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 SLN MLB 461 29 26 0 6 49 26 41 1 2 -4.0 .216 .274 .321 -.306 .216 .274 .325 .207 -19.8 117-C 14 1.1
2007 SLN MLB 396 30 15 0 6 40 34 43 1 1 -2.4 .275 .340 .368 -.082 .276 .344 .369 .253 10.6 97-C 15 3.1
2008 SLN MLB 485 37 18 0 7 56 32 29 0 2 -5.0 .304 .349 .392 .001 .309 .353 .401 .264 17.6 112-C 8 3.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 11:36 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 405 51 22 0 9 48 34 34 0 1 -3.1 .313 .374 .449 .143 .316 .376 .472 .291 29.7 97-C 4 4.4
75o 373 39 19 0 7 41 29 32 0 1 -2.7 .293 .353 .412 .039 .296 .356 .434 .273 18.3 89-C 4 3.3
60o 346 31 16 0 5 36 26 30 0 1 -2.4 .277 .336 .382 -.047 .279 .338 .402 .257 10.0 83-C 3 2.5
50o 327 26 14 0 4 33 24 29 0 1 -2.2 .266 .325 .362 -.104 .269 .327 .380 .246 5.1 79-C 3 1.9
40o 305 22 13 0 4 30 21 28 0 1 -2.0 .254 .312 .339 -.167 .256 .314 .357 .234 0.3 74-C 3 1.4
25o 289 19 11 0 3 27 20 27 0 1 -1.9 .246 .303 .324 -.210 .248 .305 .341 .225 -2.6 71-C 3 1.1
10o 238 11 8 0 1 20 15 23 0 1 -1.5 .221 .276 .278 -.339 .223 .278 .292 .195 -9.3 59-C 3 0.2
Weighted Mean 348 31 16 0 5 37 26 31 0 1 -2.3 .272 .331 .374 -.088 .275 .333 .393 .250 10.0 84-C 4 2.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

30%

46%

29%

32%

0.95

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 26) 348 31 16 0 5 37 26 31 0 1 -2.3 .272 .331 .374 -.088 .275 .333 .393 .250 10.0 84-C 4 2.3
2010 (age 27) 372 35 17 0 6 39 29 31 0 1 -2.3 .273 .333 .378 -.080 .271 .330 .392 .253 8.5 89-C 6 2.5
2011 (age 28) 363 34 17 0 6 39 30 31 0 1 -2.1 .274 .339 .379 -.067 .273 .336 .393 .256 8.9 87-C 4 2.3
2012 (age 29) 340 30 15 0 5 35 27 29 0 0 -1.9 .270 .335 .368 -.091 .269 .332 .382 .252 6.5 82-C 3 1.9
2013 (age 30) 388 35 16 0 6 40 30 34 0 1 -1.6 .264 .326 .360 -.124 .263 .323 .373 .244 3.8 93-C 3 1.5
2014 (age 31) 314 25 14 0 5 30 24 27 0 0 -1.3 .263 .323 .361 -.128 .262 .320 .374 .244 3.0 76-C 2 1.2
2015 (age 32) 310 25 13 0 4 33 26 27 0 0 -1.0 .268 .332 .365 -.103 .266 .329 .378 .250 3.5 75-C 2 1.2

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .287 .352 .401
vs RHP .267 .321 .358
Split +.020 +.031 +.042
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 5.5 4.0 2.3 $3,275,000 10.2 12.1
2010 7.0 6.0 2.5 $3,675,000 9.7 14.1
2011 7.8 4.0 2.3 $3,575,000 8.6 11.9
2012 5.8 3.0 1.9 $3,125,000 6.3 9.7
2013 3.8 3.0 1.5 $2,450,000 3.4 5.7
2014 3.0 2.0 1.2 $2,225,000 2.6 5.5
2015 4.6 2.0 1.2 $2,600,000 4.1 5.7
Peak 11.7 $13,175,000 41.0 59.0


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .273 .246 .225 .250
2010 .281 .250 .224 .253
2011 .277 .261 .234 .256
2012 .278 .251 .230 .252
2013 .263 .243 .222 .244
2014 .267 .245 .217 .244
2015 .270 .251 .211 .250


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 32% 0% 30%
2010 28% 6% 33%
2011 30% 9% 28%
2012 44% 14% 25%
2013 52% 26% 16%
2014 61% 31% 15%
2015 63% 43% 14%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

48

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Bengie Molina 2001 48 11 Hal Smith 1957 38
2 Ramon Hernandez 2003 47 12 Bruce Benedict 1982 37
3 Joe Azcue 1966 46 13 Duane Josephson 1969 37
4 Michael Barrett 2003 45 14 Hal Smith 1958 37
5 Cam Carreon 1964 41 15 Wiki Gonzalez 2001 37
6 Ray Fosse 1974 41 16 Dick Bertell 1962 37
7 Ronny Paulino 2008 40 17 Marc Hill 1979 36
8 Doc Edwards 1963 39 18 Bob Boone 1974 35
9 Mike Heath 1982 38 19 Carlos Hernandez 1994 35
10 Johnny Pramesa 1952 38 20 Fred Kendall 1976 34

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

That the NL Gold Glove voters gave last year's catching award to Russell Martin rather than Molina is right up there with the time they awarded Rafael Palmeiro after he'd played just 28 games in the field. The only possible explanation is to acknowledge that the award has nothing to do with defensive performance. Molina is the best defensive catcher in baseball and has an arm that changes the way Cardinals opponents play the game. He should have three Gold Glove awards, and he's still waiting for his first. The voting pool for the award is destroying the credibility of what should be a great honor, and should be drained posthaste.

2007

Molina`s blistering postseason erased one of the twenty worst VORP showings of the expansion era from short-term memory. That`s a fancy way of saying he was a historically bad hitter, settling in at number nine between the pre-Operation Shutdown (but still just as miserable) Derek Bell of the 1999 Astros and Jerry Morales of the 1979 Tigers. If Molina could just hit at replacement level, he`d be an extremely valuable commodity since his defense last year was superb.

2006

He`s a glove guy, but has some potential with the bat. Molina`s an extreme contact hitter, drawing a walk or striking out only 53 times in over 400 PA. A few extra breaks here and there, and Molina could invoke Jazayerli`s .300 Catcher Corollary any minute now. He`s got youth and defense on his side, so you can expect a long career, probably with a couple of performance spikes. However, those years are more likely to start in 2008 than 2006.

2005

He's every bit a Molina, like his brothers in Anaheim: admirable defensive skills, inadequate bat. However, his age is such that you can hope for improvement. Expect Matheny levels of production with maybe a handful more homers, and at much lower cost. He's best suited to a backup role, but this organization seems to be seeking some sort of methadone to battle their Matheny addiction. They've found it.


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