<< PECOTA Home Player Search     

Jayson Werth
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Right Field
Bats R
Age 30
6' 4"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card
ESPN Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
RF 6 Jayson Werth 90 204 .262 35 10 31 7 .366 .479 8.0
1   2009 Total 90 204 .262 35 10 31 7 .366 .479 8.0

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 CLR A+ 15 3 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0.0 .077 .200 .077 -.954 .071 .133 .071 .000 -3.8 -0.3
2007 PHI MLB 304 43 11 3 8 49 44 73 7 1 1.0 .298 .404 .459 .157 .292 .406 .462 .305 18.7 50-RF 4 14-LF -3 2.3
2008 PHI MLB 482 73 16 3 24 67 57 119 20 1 5.2 .273 .363 .498 .131 .273 .364 .508 .301 31.5 74-RF 4 26-CF 1 4.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:29 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 559 118 31 5 31 87 83 127 18 5 3.0 .317 .421 .603 .397 .317 .421 .612 .341 63.5 131-RF -2 7.0
75o 513 93 27 4 25 74 71 118 15 5 2.7 .296 .396 .546 .263 .296 .396 .554 .319 42.0 121-RF -1 5.1
60o 492 83 25 4 22 68 65 114 14 5 2.5 .287 .385 .521 .204 .287 .385 .528 .309 33.4 116-RF -1 4.3
50o 468 72 23 3 19 62 60 110 13 4 2.4 .276 .372 .493 .138 .276 .372 .500 .298 24.6 111-RF 0 3.4
40o 456 68 22 3 18 59 57 107 12 4 2.3 .271 .366 .480 .107 .272 .366 .487 .293 20.7 108-RF 0 3.1
25o 437 60 20 3 16 54 53 103 12 4 2.2 .263 .356 .458 .055 .264 .356 .465 .283 14.5 104-RF 0 2.4
10o 401 49 17 2 13 46 45 96 10 4 1.9 .249 .338 .420 -.036 .249 .338 .427 .267 4.7 96-RF 1 1.5
Weighted Mean 500 83 25 4 22 68 65 117 14 5 2.4 .282 .379 .509 .177 .282 .380 .517 .304 32.2 118-RF 0 3.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

26%

52%

14%

9%

0.96

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 30) 500 83 25 4 22 68 65 117 14 5 2.4 .282 .379 .509 .177 .282 .380 .517 .304 32.2 118-RF 0 3.9
2010 (age 31) 517 86 25 3 23 71 69 122 15 4 2.3 .278 .378 .505 .144 .274 .373 .506 .304 27.1 122-RF 0 3.8
2011 (age 32) 416 60 19 2 17 54 53 100 11 2 1.8 .272 .368 .482 .093 .268 .363 .483 .295 17.0 99-RF -1 2.6
2012 (age 33) 444 65 21 3 17 56 58 104 10 3 1.7 .271 .371 .474 .087 .268 .366 .475 .293 14.4 105-RF -1 2.2
2013 (age 34) 423 61 17 3 17 55 54 97 11 3 1.3 .269 .368 .476 .083 .266 .363 .477 .293 11.3 101-RF -2 1.6
2014 (age 35) 289 36 13 2 12 39 37 68 7 2 1.0 .270 .366 .481 .087 .266 .362 .481 .293 8.7 71-RF -2 1.2
2015 (age 36) 377 50 16 2 14 51 44 85 9 2 0.9 .266 .359 .456 .040 .262 .355 .456 .284 5.5 90-RF -2 0.8

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .297 .396 .534
vs RHP .276 .369 .486
Split +.021 +.027 +.048
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 24.0 0.0 3.9 $9,075,000 30.7 37.3
2010 24.8 0.0 3.8 $8,525,000 26.5 31.5
2011 15.2 -1.0 2.6 $5,350,000 16.2 17.3
2012 15.5 -1.0 2.2 $4,725,000 13.4 14.6
2013 14.8 -2.0 1.6 $3,650,000 9.6 10.1
2014 10.0 -2.0 1.2 $2,950,000 7.2 8.5
2015 9.1 -2.0 0.8 $2,125,000 4.2 5.2
Peak 15.3 $27,575,000 103.6 119.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .319 .298 .283 .304
2010 .322 .301 .282 .304
2011 .311 .295 .278 .295
2012 .316 .293 .273 .293
2013 .313 .290 .263 .293
2014 .307 .292 .260 .293
2015 .319 .277 .264 .284


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 9% 0% 26%
2010 13% 4% 25%
2011 31% 12% 10%
2012 44% 19% 11%
2013 55% 32% 10%
2014 68% 38% 10%
2015 74% 54% 9%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

49

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Jason Bay 2008 54 11 Andy Van Slyke 1991 33
2 Bob Allison 1964 41 12 Tommie Agee 1972 32
3 Tim Salmon 1998 41 13 Larry Hisle 1977 32
4 Chuck Hinton 1964 39 14 Glenallen Hill 1995 32
5 Leroy Stanton 1976 37 15 Eric Davis 1992 32
6 Reggie Sanders 1998 37 16 Derrek Lee 2005 31
7 Luke Scott 2008 37 17 Leon Roberts 1981 30
8 Al Smith 1958 36 18 Daryl Boston 1993 30
9 Kirk Gibson 1987 34 19 George Altman 1963 30
10 Willie Crawford 1976 34 20 Trot Nixon 2004 30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Wrist problems only shelved Werth for a month last year, an accomplishment given that the joint ruined his 2005 and caused him to miss all of 2006. When he played, he toasted lefties the way he had back in 2004, hitting .375/.467/.591 against them. He's not the same hitter against righties, as he struck out in more than a third of his at-bats against them, but he did maintain his willingness to take a walk against the same-handed. This year, Werth will form a platoon with Geoff Jenkins, assuming he can stay off the DL. That caveat would be gratuitous with a lot of players, but in Werth's case it's absolutely necessary.

2007

The nightmare continues. Werth broke his left wrist in the 2005 spring-training opener, and when he was finally able to play, the injury hampered him significantly. After the season, doctors discovered that he`d also torn a ligament in the wrist. He had surgery, but his rehab went poorly, and he went under the knife again in August. Non-tendered by the Dodgers, he signed on to be the Phillies` fourth outfielder, reuniting with Pat Gillick, who was GM in Baltimore when the Orioles made Werth their 1997 first-round pick. At this writing, Werth has yet to resume baseball activities, including a hoped-for stint in winter ball. With luck he`ll recover to build on his promising 2004 campaign, but that seems unlikely.

2006

For bad omens as to how the Dodgers` season would pan out, only Gagne`s February knee sprain trumped Werth`s broken wrist, which came in the spring-training opener. It first seemed Werth would be able to play again in a few weeks, but he didn`t return until May 25. As it turned out, the wrist never fully healed, and he had off-season surgery to repair a torn ligament. He also had a bit of knee trouble repaired, and won`t be ready by the start of spring training.. Despite the knee problems, he showed good speed and played strong defense, even covering center field well. Once he`s healthy, bet on him to build on his 2004 and put last year`s nightmare behind him.

2005

One time Oriole catching prospect, now a super-utility man who can swing the power bat while nominally occupying a left-spectrum defensive position. Fully capable of putting up a big offensive season that would make him a very rich man. Given how tough it is to find 162-game players, a guy like Werth who can be worked into a rotation can be very valuable, particularly with the DH spot coming up a few times a year in interleague play. He'll likely see a time-share with Grabowski and Ricky Ledee, but Werth's a good enough player to be a bopping outfielder on a number of teams.

2003

Tossing aside the catching gear, Werth is officially an outfielder. A great athlete, he shines in either outfield corner and can even occasionally spell Wells in center. Hitting coach Mike Barnett wants to shorten his long swing in hopes of slicing his whiffs. Werth looks like he’ll be one of those undervalued players that don’t hit for a high batting average, but have strong secondary numbers. Given his huge platoon split, we might be looking at the next Gary Roenicke.

2002

Orioles’ super-genius Syd Thrift gave away former first-rounder Werth after he seemed to stall in Double-A. Throughout his struggles, Werth retained excellent control of the strike zone, and everything jelled the second half of last season. Despite the catching logjam at the upper levels, the immediate plan is to keep Lawrence, Phelps, and Werth sporting the tools of ignorance and see what shakes out, though Werth’s athleticism and rough defense may ultimately lead to a position switch.

2001

On one hand, Jayson Werth had a disappointing season. He started at Bowie and was demoted to Frederick, and his EqA declined. On the other hand, his isolated power was up a little, his walks continued to increase, and there was no increase in his strikeout rate. That performance indicates that the foundation of his hitting skills is solid, giving him a better than average chance of rebounding in 2001. His throwing arm isn’t good, which is why his catcher rating is so low; a move to the outfield might free up his hitting development. Werth was traded to the Blue Jays in November for a middle-relief prospect, a fairly inexplicable move.

2000

A tall, athletic catcher who’s drawn comparisons to Jason Kendall and Dale Murphy, Werth comes from a family of major leaguers. He’s a line-drive hitter who hasn’t yet shown power, but everybody assumes that will come before long. The statistical decline at Double-A is deceptive; he was tearing the league apart until a baserunning injury left him with a hairline fracture of his wrist, and he hit just .171 while playing through it. The biggest question is whether the Orioles will allow him to remain at catcher or move him to the outfield.

1999

The Oriole scouting department really has a bias for bloodlines. There's Luzinski and Hairston and DeCinces. Ripken, of course. McDonald's older brother is a Yankee. And Werth, the other first-round pick from '97: his mother is Dick Schofield's sister, his grandfather is Ducky Schofield, and his stepfather is Dennis Werth, who had a 139-AB career over four years. He's a good catcher - he nailed 64 would-be base thieves, second most in pro ball last year - but he’s big, athletic, and has such potential as a hitter that he may not remain there.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2009 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.