Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member’s division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you’ll find the average rank of each team in their division with first-place votes in parentheses, plus the results of our pre-season MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting. Picking favorites for the Wild Card for the respective leagues initially might have seemed easy, since the selections universally favored the second-place team in the AL East, while all but two voters picked their second-place teams in the NL East to earn the non-division champ playoff team, but a tie in the rankings had to be broken in favor of the team named the Wild Card winner on the most individual ballots, which is sure to upset some people.
For the MVP voting, we’ve slightly amended the traditional points system in place that’s been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that’s 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.). Next to each of these selections we’ve listed the total number of ballots, followed by the total number of points, and then the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received.
AL East
Team Average Total Boston Red Sox 1.4 (8) 17 New York Yankees* 2.2 (2) 26 Tampa Bay Rays 2.5 (2) 30 Toronto Blue Jays 4.3 52 Baltimore Orioles 4.6 55
AL Central
Team Average Total Cleveland Indians 1.2 (10) 14 Minnesota Twins 2.9 35 Detroit Tigers 3.0 36 Chicago White Sox 3.3 (2) 39 Kansas City Royals 4.7 56
AL West
Team Average Total Oakland Athletics 1.7 (6) 20 LA Angels of Anaheim 1.8 (4) 21 Texas Rangers 2.8 (2) 33 Seattle Mariners 3.8 46
Individual Awards
AL MVP
- CF Grady Sizemore, Indians 10, 83 (5)
- 1B Mark Teixeira, Yankees 9, 73 (4)
- 3B Evan Longoria, Rays 5, 32 (1)
- LF Matt Holliday, A’s 4, 15 (1)
- 1B Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox 2, 15 (1)
- 1B Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 2, 14
- CF Josh Hamilton, Rangers 1, 7
- SS Alexei Ramirez, White Sox 1, 5
- 1B Justin Morneau, Twins 1, 5
- 2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 1, 5
AL Cy Young
- CC Sabathia, Yankees 8, 32 (5)
- Roy Halladay, Blue Jays 6, 12
- Josh Beckett, Red Sox 3, 11 (1)
- Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox 2, 10 (2)
- Francisco Liriano, Twins 3, 9 (1)
- Felix Hernandez, Mariners 3, 9 (1)
- James Shields, Rays 3, 9 (1)
- Jon Lester, Red Sox 2, 6 (1)
- John Danks, White Sox 2, 4
- Zack Greinke, Royals 1, 3
- Joba Chamberlain, Yankees 1, 1
- Justin Verlander, Tigers 1, 1
- Scott Kazmir, Rays 1, 1
AL RotY
- C Matt Wieters, Orioles 9, 39 (6)
- LHP David Price, Rays 11, 31 (3)
- OF Travis Snider, Blue Jays 9, 29 (3)
- LHP Brett Anderson, Athletics 4, 6
- SS Elvis Andrus, Rangers 1, 1
- RHP Trevor Cahill, Athletics 1, 1
National League Standings
NL East
Team Average Total New York Mets 1.1 (11) 13 Atlanta Braves* 2.5 30 Philadelphia Phillies 2.5 (1) 30 Florida Marlins 4.1 49 Washington Nationals 4.8 58
NL Central
Team Average Total Chicago Cubs 1.2 (11) 14 Milwaukee Brewers 2.8 33 St. Louis Cardinals 3.1 (1) 37 Cincinnati Reds 3.3 39 Pittsburgh Pirates 5.2 62 Houston Astros 5.6 67
NL West
Team Average Total Los Angeles Dodgers 1.1 (11) 13 Arizona Diamondbacks 2.1 (1) 25 San Francisco Giants 3.1 37 Colorado Rockies 3.8 46 San Diego Padres 4.9 59
Individual Awards:
NL MVP
- 1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals 9, 75 (4)
- 3B David Wright, Mets 6, 49 (3)
- LF Manny Ramirez, Dodgers 4, 37 (3)
- SS Hanley Ramirez, Marlins 5, 29
- SS Jose Reyes, Mets 3, 25 (2)
- C Brian McCann, Braves 2, 14
- CF Carlos Beltran, Mets 2, 10
- RF Milton Bradley, Cubs 1, 5
- LHP Johan Santana, Mets 1, 5
- 1B Ryan Howard, Phillies 1, 5
- 1B Joey Votto, Reds 1, 5
- LF Ryan Braun, Brewers 1, 5
NL Cy Young
- Tim Lincecum, Giants 10, 38 (5)
- Johan Santana, Mets 8, 34 (6)
- Rich Harden, Cubs 3, 9 (1)
- Brandon Webb, D’backs 4, 6
- Jake Peavy, Padres 2, 4
- Yovani Gallardo, Brewers 2, 4
- Chad Billingsley, Dodgers 2, 4
- Cole Hamels, Phillies 2, 4
- Ted Lilly, Cubs 1, 3
- Dan Haren, D’backs 1, 1
- Derek Lowe, Braves 1, 1
NL RotY
- CF Cameron Maybin, Marlins 10, 42 (6)
- CF Colby Rasmus, Cardinals 8, 18
- CF Dexter Fowler, Rockies 4, 14 (2)
- CF Jordan Schafer, Braves 5, 13 (2)
- CF Andrew McCutchen, Pirates 5, 13 (2)
- RHP Ken Kawakami, Braves 2, 4
- RHP Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals 1, 3
- RHP Tommy Hanson, Braves 1, 1
- William Burke
- Will Carroll
- Clay Davenport
- Steven Goldman
- Kevin Goldstein
- Gary Huckabay
- Jay Jaffe
- Christina Kahrl
- David Laurila
- Marc Normandin
- John Perrotto
- Joe Sheehan
AL Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Yankees Indians Rangers Red Sox * White Sox Athletics Orioles Tigers Angels Rays Twins Mariners Blue Jays Royals
AL MVP
1. Mark Teixeira
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Justin Morneau
AL Cy Young
1. Josh Beckett
2. John Danks
3. Joba Chamberlain
AL RotY
1. David Price
2. Travis Snider
3. Brett Anderson
NL Standings
NL East NL Central NL West Mets Cardinals Dodgers Braves Cubs * Giants Phillies Reds Diamondbacks Marlins Astros Rockies Nationals Brewers Padres Pirates
NL MVP
1. Manny Ramirez
2. Albert Pujols
3. Carlos Beltran
NL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana
2. Yovani Gallardo
3. Brandon Webb
NL RotY
1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Cameron Maybin
3. Jordan Schafer
AL Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox White Sox Athletics Yankees * Indians Angels Rays Tigers Rangers Orioles Twins Mariners Blue Jays Royals
AL MVP
1. Kevin Youkilis
2. Josh Hamilton
3. Mark Teixeira
AL Cy Young
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka
2. James Shields
3. CC Sabathia
AL RotY
1. Matt Wieters
2. David Price
3. Travis Snider (AL East getting richer!)
NL Standings
NL East NL Central NL West Mets Cubs Diamondbacks Phillies Brewers * Dodgers Marlins Cardinals Giants Braves Pirates Rockies Nationals Reds Padres Astros
NL MVP
1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Jose Reyes (wow, I’m way out on a limb here …)
NL Cy Young
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Ted Lilly
3. Yovani Gallardo
NL RotY
1. Cameron Maybin
2. Dexter Fowler
3. Andrew McCutchen (it’s the return of speed! Good story that it’s speed not power in NL)
AL Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Indians Athletics Yankees Twins Angels Rays Tigers Mariners Blue Jays Royals Rangers Orioles White Sox
AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young
1. CC Sabathia
2. Josh Beckett
3. James Shields
AL RotY
1. Travis Snider
2. Matt Wieters
3. Trevor Cahill
NL Standings
NL East NL Central NL West Mets Cubs Dodgers Phillies Brewers Diamondbacks Braves Reds Giants Nationals Cardinals Rockies Marlins Pirates Padres Astros
NL MVP
1. David Wright
2. Albert Pujols
3. Hanley Ramirez
NL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Rich Harden
NL RotY
1. Jordan Schafer
2. Jordan Zimmermann
3. Colby Rasmus
AL Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Indians Athletics Rays * Tigers Angels Yankees Twins Rangers Blue Jays White Sox Mariners Orioles Royals
AL MVP
1. Mark Teixeira
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young
1. CC Sabathia
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Scott Kazmir
AL RotY
1. Matt Wieters
2. Travis Snider
3. David Price
NL Standings
NL East NL Central NL West Mets Cubs Dodgers Braves * Brewers Diamondbacks Phillies Cardinals Giants Nationals Reds Rockies Marlins Astros Padres Pirates
NL MVP
1. David Wright
2. Albert Pujols
3. Ryan Braun
NL Cy Young
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Johan Santana
3. Brandon Webb
NL RotY
1. Dexter Fowler
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Jordan Schafer
AL Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Yankees Indians Angels Red Sox * White Sox Athletics Rays Tigers Rangers Orioles Royals Mariners Blue Jays Twins
AL MVP
1. Mark Teixeira
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Matt Holliday
AL Cy Young
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka
2. Francisco Liriano
3. Felix Hernandez
AL RotY
1. Matt Wieters
2. Travis Snider
3. David Price
NL Standings
NL East NL Central NL West Mets Cubs Dodgers Phillies * Cardinals Diamondbacks Braves Reds Giants Marlins Brewers Rockies Nationals Pirates Padres Astros
NL MVP
1. Manny Ramirez
2. Albert Pujols
3. Ryan Howard
NL Cy Young
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Jake Peavy
3. Johan Santana
NL RotY
1. Cameron Maybin
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Tommy Hanson
AL Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Indians Athletics Yankees * Twins Angels Rays Tigers Rangers Blue Jays White Sox Mariners Orioles Royals
AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore
2. Mark Teixeira
3. Kevin Youkilis
AL Cy Young
1. Francisco Liriano
2. CC Sabathia
3. Roy Halladay
AL RotY
1. Travis Snider
2. Matt Wieters
3. David Price
NL Standings
NL East NL Central NL West Mets Cubs Dodgers Braves * Brewers Diamondbacks Phillies Reds Giants Marlins Cardinals Rockies Nationals Pirates Padres Astros
NL MVP
1. David Wright
2. Brian McCann
3. Hanley Ramirez
NL Cy Young
1. Rich Harden
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Jake Peavy
NL RotY
1. Cameron Maybin
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Andrew McCutchen
AL Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Rays Indians Angels Yankees * Tigers Athletics Red Sox White Sox Rangers Orioles Twins Mariners Blue Jays Royals
AL MVP
1. Evan Longoria
2. Mark Teixeira
3. Dustin Pedroia
AL Cy Young
1. CC Sabathia
2. Zack Greinke
3. John Danks
AL RotY
1. Matt Wieters
2. David Price
3. Rick Porcello
NL Standings
NL East NL Central NL West Mets Cubs Dodgers Braves * Brewers Diamondbacks Phillies Reds Rockies Marlins Cardinals Giants Nationals Pirates Padres Astros
NL MVP
1. Albert Pujols
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Hanley Ramirez
NL Cy Young
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Brandon Webb
3. Chad Billingsley
NL RotY
1. Cameron Maybin
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Jordan Schafer
AL Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox White Sox Angels Rays * Indians Rangers Yankees Twins Athletics Blue Jays Royals Mariners Orioles Tigers
AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore, Indians
2. Evan Longoria, Rays
3. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
AL Cy Young
1. Jon Lester, Red Sox
2. CC Sabathia, Yankees
3. Roy Halladay, Jays
AL RotY
1. David Price, Rays
2. Matt Wieters, Orioles
3. Elvis Andrus, Rangers
NL Standings
NL East NL Central NL West Mets Cubs Dodgers Braves * Cardinals Diamondbacks Phillies Brewers Giants Marlins Reds Rockies Nationals Pirates Padres Astros
NL MVP
1. Jose Reyes, Mets
2. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
3. Carlos Beltran, Mets
NL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants
3. Dan Haren, D’backs
NL RotY
1. Cameron Maybin, Marlins
2. Ken Kawakami, Braves
3. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
AL Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Rays Indians Rangers Red Sox * Twins Angels Yankees Tigers Athletics Blue Jays White Sox Mariners Orioles Royals
AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Matt Holliday
AL Cy Young
1. James Shields
2. Roy Halladay
3. Justin Verlander
AL RotY
1. Travis Snider
2. Brett Anderson
3. David Price
NL Standings
NL East NL Central NL West Mets Cubs Dodgers Phillies * Reds Giants Braves Brewers Diamondbacks Marlins Pirates Rockies Nationals Cardinals Padres Astros
NL MVP
1. Albert Pujols
2. David Wright
3. Joey Votto
NL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Brandon Webb
NL RotY
1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Cameron Maybin
3. Colby Rasmus
AL Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Indians Angels Rays * Twins Athletics Yankees Tigers Mariners Blue Jays White Sox Rangers Orioles Royals
AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore
2. Mark Teixeira
3. Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young
1. CC Sabathia
2. Josh Beckett
3. Roy Halladay
AL RotY
1. Matt Wieters
2. David Price
3. Brett Anderson
NL Standings
NL East NL Central NL West Mets Cubs Dodgers Braves * Brewers Diamondbacks Phillies Cardinals Giants Marlins Reds Rockies Nationals Pirates Padres Astros
NL MVP
1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. David Wright
NL Cy Young
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Cole Hamels
3. Derek Lowe
NL RotY
1. Jordan Schafer
2. Cameron Maybin
3. Colby Rasmus
AL Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Indians Athletics Yankees * Twins Angels Rays Tigers Rangers Blue Jays White Sox Mariners Orioles Royals
AL MVP
1. Matt Holliday
2. Mark Teixeira
3. Grady Sizemore
AL Cy Young
1. CC Sabathia
2. Roy Halladay
3. Jon Lester
AL RotY
1. David Price
2. Travis Snider
3. Brett Anderson
NL Standings
NL East NL Central NL West Phillies Cubs Dodgers Mets * Cardinals Diamondbacks Braves Brewers Rockies Marlins Reds Padres Nationals Astros Giants Pirates
NL MVP
1. Manny Ramirez
2. David Wright
3. Milton Bradley
NL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana
2. Rich Harden
3. Cole Hamels
NL RotY
1. Cameron Maybin
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Dexter Fowler
AL Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Indians Athletics Yankees * Twins Angels Rays Tigers Rangers Blue Jays Royals Mariners Orioles White Sox
AL MVP
1. Mark Teixeira
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Matt Holliday
AL Cy Young
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Roy Halladay
3. Francisco Liriano
AL RotY
1. Matt Wieters
2. David Price
3. Travis Snider
NL Standings
NL East NL Central NL West Mets Cubs Dodgers Braves * Reds Diamondbacks Phillies Brewers Giants Marlins Cardinals Rockies Nationals Astros Padres Pirates
NL MVP
1. Jose Reyes
2. Brian McCann
3. Johan Santana
NL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana
2. Chad Billingsley
3. Tim Lincecum
NL RotY
1. Dexter Fowler
2. Cameron Maybin
3. Ken Kawakami
Thank you for reading
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We will see.
It's kind of amazing that 3/4 of the ballots named one of two guys AL MVP, and that 1/3 of the ballots named a 1B that PECOTA likes to put up a traditional line of .281/28/100 (and who two of the people who voted for him don't think will be playing for a first-place team). Could well be absolutely right--I'm just sayin'.
I DON'T
PAUL
No, I gave it some additional thought between having to send in the Journal picks and doing my "official" ones.
What is surprising is that even Christina couldn't pull the trigger on the A's.
Ok.
I'm all ears.
That's Pujols by a mile.
otoh, there was also one person to pick them fifth, behind the freaking pirates. david laurila, you are dead to me.
If Ted Lilly wins a CyYoung, or if Milton Bradley wins an MVP - It would be more shocking to me than say a Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.
NL ROY darkhorses: Emilio Bonaficio (faster than Bolt)
Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, or Chris Perez (whichever from these 3 relievers that ends up with 25 plus Cardinal saves)
AL ROY darkhorses: Josh Anderson Tigers OF
Gordon Beckham White Sox SS (Alexi shifts to 2B)