keyboard_arrow_uptop

Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member’s division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you’ll find the average rank of each team in their division with first-place votes in parentheses, plus the results of our pre-season MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting. Picking favorites for the Wild Card for the respective leagues initially might have seemed easy, since the selections universally favored the second-place team in the AL East, while all but two voters picked their second-place teams in the NL East to earn the non-division champ playoff team, but a tie in the rankings had to be broken in favor of the team named the Wild Card winner on the most individual ballots, which is sure to upset some people.

For the MVP voting, we’ve slightly amended the traditional points system in place that’s been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that’s 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.). Next to each of these selections we’ve listed the total number of ballots, followed by the total number of points, and then the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received.



American League Standings


AL East

Team                 Average    Total
Boston Red Sox         1.4  (8)   17
New York Yankees*      2.2  (2)   26
Tampa Bay Rays         2.5  (2)   30
Toronto Blue Jays      4.3        52
Baltimore Orioles      4.6        55


AL Central

Team                 Average    Total
Cleveland Indians      1.2 (10)   14
Minnesota Twins        2.9        35
Detroit Tigers         3.0        36
Chicago White Sox      3.3  (2)   39
Kansas City Royals     4.7        56


AL West

Team                 Average    Total
Oakland Athletics      1.7  (6)   20
LA Angels of Anaheim   1.8  (4)   21
Texas Rangers          2.8  (2)   33
Seattle Mariners       3.8        46


Individual Awards


AL MVP

  1. CF Grady Sizemore, Indians 10, 83 (5)
  2. 1B Mark Teixeira, Yankees 9, 73 (4)
  3. 3B Evan Longoria, Rays 5, 32 (1)
  4. LF Matt Holliday, A’s 4, 15 (1)
  5. 1B Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox 2, 15 (1)
  6. 1B Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 2, 14
  7. CF Josh Hamilton, Rangers 1, 7
  8. SS Alexei Ramirez, White Sox 1, 5
  9. 1B Justin Morneau, Twins 1, 5
  10. 2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 1, 5


AL Cy Young

  1. CC Sabathia, Yankees 8, 32 (5)
  2. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays 6, 12
  3. Josh Beckett, Red Sox 3, 11 (1)
  4. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox 2, 10 (2)
  5. Francisco Liriano, Twins 3, 9 (1)
  6. Felix Hernandez, Mariners 3, 9 (1)
  7. James Shields, Rays 3, 9 (1)
  8. Jon Lester, Red Sox 2, 6 (1)
  9. John Danks, White Sox 2, 4
  10. Zack Greinke, Royals 1, 3
  11. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees 1, 1
  12. Justin Verlander, Tigers 1, 1
  13. Scott Kazmir, Rays 1, 1


AL RotY

  1. C Matt Wieters, Orioles 9, 39 (6)
  2. LHP David Price, Rays 11, 31 (3)
  3. OF Travis Snider, Blue Jays 9, 29 (3)
  4. LHP Brett Anderson, Athletics 4, 6
  5. SS Elvis Andrus, Rangers 1, 1
  6. RHP Trevor Cahill, Athletics 1, 1


National League Standings


NL East

Team                 Average     Total
New York Mets          1.1 (11)    13
Atlanta Braves*        2.5         30
Philadelphia Phillies  2.5  (1)    30
Florida Marlins        4.1         49
Washington Nationals   4.8         58


NL Central

Team                 Average     Total
Chicago Cubs           1.2 (11)    14
Milwaukee Brewers      2.8         33
St. Louis Cardinals    3.1  (1)    37
Cincinnati Reds        3.3         39
Pittsburgh Pirates     5.2         62
Houston Astros         5.6         67


NL West


Team                 Average     Total
Los Angeles Dodgers    1.1 (11)    13
Arizona Diamondbacks   2.1  (1)    25
San Francisco Giants   3.1         37
Colorado Rockies       3.8         46
San Diego Padres       4.9         59


Individual Awards:


NL MVP

  1. 1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals 9, 75 (4)
  2. 3B David Wright, Mets 6, 49 (3)
  3. LF Manny Ramirez, Dodgers 4, 37 (3)
  4. SS Hanley Ramirez, Marlins 5, 29
  5. SS Jose Reyes, Mets 3, 25 (2)
  6. C Brian McCann, Braves 2, 14
  7. CF Carlos Beltran, Mets 2, 10
  8. RF Milton Bradley, Cubs 1, 5
  9. LHP Johan Santana, Mets 1, 5
  10. 1B Ryan Howard, Phillies 1, 5
  11. 1B Joey Votto, Reds 1, 5
  12. LF Ryan Braun, Brewers 1, 5


NL Cy Young

  1. Tim Lincecum, Giants 10, 38 (5)
  2. Johan Santana, Mets 8, 34 (6)
  3. Rich Harden, Cubs 3, 9 (1)
  4. Brandon Webb, D’backs 4, 6
  5. Jake Peavy, Padres 2, 4
  6. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers 2, 4
  7. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers 2, 4
  8. Cole Hamels, Phillies 2, 4
  9. Ted Lilly, Cubs 1, 3
  10. Dan Haren, D’backs 1, 1
  11. Derek Lowe, Braves 1, 1


NL RotY

  1. CF Cameron Maybin, Marlins 10, 42 (6)
  2. CF Colby Rasmus, Cardinals 8, 18
  3. CF Dexter Fowler, Rockies 4, 14 (2)
  4. CF Jordan Schafer, Braves 5, 13 (2)
  5. CF Andrew McCutchen, Pirates 5, 13 (2)
  6. RHP Ken Kawakami, Braves 2, 4
  7. RHP Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals 1, 3
  8. RHP Tommy Hanson, Braves 1, 1



Individual Ballots:




William Burke


AL Standings


AL East       AL Central       AL West
Yankees       Indians          Rangers
Red Sox *     White Sox        Athletics
Orioles       Tigers           Angels
Rays          Twins            Mariners
Blue Jays     Royals           


AL MVP

1. Mark Teixeira
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Justin Morneau


AL Cy Young

1. Josh Beckett
2. John Danks
3. Joba Chamberlain


AL RotY

1. David Price
2. Travis Snider
3. Brett Anderson


NL Standings


NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cardinals        Dodgers
Braves        Cubs *           Giants
Phillies      Reds             Diamondbacks
Marlins       Astros           Rockies
Nationals     Brewers          Padres
              Pirates


NL MVP

1. Manny Ramirez
2. Albert Pujols
3. Carlos Beltran


NL Cy Young

1. Johan Santana
2. Yovani Gallardo
3. Brandon Webb


NL RotY

1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Cameron Maybin
3. Jordan Schafer




Will Carroll


AL Standings


AL East       AL Central       AL West
Red Sox       White Sox        Athletics
Yankees *     Indians          Angels
Rays          Tigers           Rangers
Orioles       Twins            Mariners
Blue Jays     Royals  


AL MVP

1. Kevin Youkilis
2. Josh Hamilton
3. Mark Teixeira


AL Cy Young

1. Daisuke Matsuzaka
2. James Shields
3. CC Sabathia


AL RotY

1. Matt Wieters
2. David Price
3. Travis Snider (AL East getting richer!)


NL Standings


NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Diamondbacks
Phillies      Brewers *        Dodgers
Marlins       Cardinals        Giants
Braves        Pirates          Rockies
Nationals     Reds             Padres
              Astros      


NL MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Jose Reyes (wow, I’m way out on a limb here …)


NL Cy Young

1. Tim Lincecum
2. Ted Lilly
3. Yovani Gallardo


NL RotY

1. Cameron Maybin
2. Dexter Fowler
3. Andrew McCutchen (it’s the return of speed! Good story that it’s speed not power in NL)




Clay Davenport


AL Standings


AL East       AL Central       AL West
Red Sox       Indians          Athletics
Yankees       Twins            Angels
Rays          Tigers           Mariners
Blue Jays     Royals           Rangers
Orioles       White Sox


AL MVP

1. Grady Sizemore
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Evan Longoria


AL Cy Young

1. CC Sabathia
2. Josh Beckett
3. James Shields


AL RotY

1. Travis Snider
2. Matt Wieters
3. Trevor Cahill


NL Standings


NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Phillies      Brewers          Diamondbacks
Braves        Reds             Giants
Nationals     Cardinals        Rockies
Marlins       Pirates          Padres
              Astros 


NL MVP

1. David Wright
2. Albert Pujols
3. Hanley Ramirez


NL Cy Young

1. Johan Santana
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Rich Harden


NL RotY

1. Jordan Schafer
2. Jordan Zimmermann
3. Colby Rasmus




Steven Goldman


AL Standings


AL East       AL Central       AL West
Red Sox       Indians          Athletics
Rays *        Tigers           Angels
Yankees       Twins            Rangers
Blue Jays     White Sox        Mariners
Orioles       Royals


AL MVP

1. Mark Teixeira
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Evan Longoria


AL Cy Young

1. CC Sabathia
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Scott Kazmir


AL RotY

1. Matt Wieters
2. Travis Snider
3. David Price


NL Standings


NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Braves *      Brewers          Diamondbacks
Phillies      Cardinals        Giants
Nationals     Reds             Rockies
Marlins       Astros           Padres
              Pirates


NL MVP

1. David Wright
2. Albert Pujols
3. Ryan Braun


NL Cy Young

1. Tim Lincecum
2. Johan Santana
3. Brandon Webb


NL RotY

1. Dexter Fowler
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Jordan Schafer




Kevin Goldstein


AL Standings


AL East       AL Central       AL West
Yankees       Indians          Angels
Red Sox *     White Sox        Athletics
Rays          Tigers           Rangers
Orioles       Royals           Mariners
Blue Jays     Twins           


AL MVP

1. Mark Teixeira
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Matt Holliday


AL Cy Young

1. Daisuke Matsuzaka
2. Francisco Liriano
3. Felix Hernandez


AL RotY

1. Matt Wieters
2. Travis Snider
3. David Price


NL Standings


NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Phillies *    Cardinals        Diamondbacks
Braves        Reds             Giants
Marlins       Brewers          Rockies
Nationals     Pirates          Padres
              Astros


NL MVP

1. Manny Ramirez
2. Albert Pujols
3. Ryan Howard


NL Cy Young

1. Tim Lincecum
2. Jake Peavy
3. Johan Santana


NL RotY

1. Cameron Maybin
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Tommy Hanson




Gary Huckabay


AL Standings


AL East       AL Central       AL West
Red Sox       Indians          Athletics
Yankees *     Twins            Angels
Rays          Tigers           Rangers
Blue Jays     White Sox        Mariners
Orioles       Royals   


AL MVP

1. Grady Sizemore
2. Mark Teixeira
3. Kevin Youkilis


AL Cy Young

1. Francisco Liriano
2. CC Sabathia
3. Roy Halladay


AL RotY

1. Travis Snider
2. Matt Wieters
3. David Price


NL Standings


NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Braves *      Brewers          Diamondbacks
Phillies      Reds             Giants
Marlins       Cardinals        Rockies
Nationals     Pirates          Padres
              Astros


NL MVP

1. David Wright
2. Brian McCann
3. Hanley Ramirez


NL Cy Young

1. Rich Harden
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Jake Peavy


NL RotY

1. Cameron Maybin
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Andrew McCutchen




Jay Jaffe


AL Standings


AL East       AL Central       AL West
Rays          Indians          Angels
Yankees *     Tigers           Athletics
Red Sox       White Sox        Rangers
Orioles       Twins            Mariners
Blue Jays     Royals


AL MVP

1. Evan Longoria
2. Mark Teixeira
3. Dustin Pedroia


AL Cy Young

1. CC Sabathia
2. Zack Greinke
3. John Danks


AL RotY

1. Matt Wieters
2. David Price
3. Rick Porcello


NL Standings


NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Braves *      Brewers          Diamondbacks
Phillies      Reds             Rockies
Marlins       Cardinals        Giants
Nationals     Pirates          Padres
              Astros


NL MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Hanley Ramirez


NL Cy Young

1. Tim Lincecum
2. Brandon Webb
3. Chad Billingsley


NL RotY

1. Cameron Maybin
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Jordan Schafer




Christina Kahrl


AL Standings


AL East       AL Central       AL West
Red Sox       White Sox        Angels
Rays *        Indians          Rangers
Yankees       Twins            Athletics
Blue Jays     Royals           Mariners
Orioles       Tigers


AL MVP

1. Grady Sizemore, Indians
2. Evan Longoria, Rays
3. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox


AL Cy Young

1. Jon Lester, Red Sox
2. CC Sabathia, Yankees
3. Roy Halladay, Jays


AL RotY

1. David Price, Rays
2. Matt Wieters, Orioles
3. Elvis Andrus, Rangers


NL Standings


NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Braves *      Cardinals        Diamondbacks
Phillies      Brewers          Giants
Marlins       Reds             Rockies
Nationals     Pirates          Padres
              Astros   


NL MVP

1. Jose Reyes, Mets
2. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
3. Carlos Beltran, Mets


NL Cy Young

1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants
3. Dan Haren, D’backs


NL RotY

1. Cameron Maybin, Marlins
2. Ken Kawakami, Braves
3. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates




David Laurila


AL Standings


AL East       AL Central       AL West
Rays          Indians          Rangers
Red Sox *     Twins            Angels
Yankees       Tigers           Athletics
Blue Jays     White Sox        Mariners
Orioles       Royals   


AL MVP

1. Grady Sizemore
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Matt Holliday


AL Cy Young

1. James Shields
2. Roy Halladay
3. Justin Verlander


AL RotY

1. Travis Snider
2. Brett Anderson
3. David Price


NL Standings


NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Phillies *    Reds             Giants
Braves        Brewers          Diamondbacks
Marlins       Pirates          Rockies
Nationals     Cardinals        Padres
              Astros


NL MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. David Wright
3. Joey Votto


NL Cy Young

1. Johan Santana
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Brandon Webb


NL RotY

1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Cameron Maybin
3. Colby Rasmus




Marc Normandin


AL Standings


AL East       AL Central       AL West
Red Sox       Indians          Angels
Rays *        Twins            Athletics
Yankees       Tigers           Mariners
Blue Jays     White Sox        Rangers
Orioles       Royals


AL MVP

1. Grady Sizemore
2. Mark Teixeira
3. Evan Longoria


AL Cy Young

1. CC Sabathia
2. Josh Beckett
3. Roy Halladay


AL RotY

1. Matt Wieters
2. David Price
3. Brett Anderson


NL Standings


NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Braves *      Brewers          Diamondbacks
Phillies      Cardinals        Giants
Marlins       Reds             Rockies
Nationals     Pirates          Padres
              Astros


NL MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. David Wright


NL Cy Young

1. Tim Lincecum
2. Cole Hamels
3. Derek Lowe


NL RotY

1. Jordan Schafer
2. Cameron Maybin
3. Colby Rasmus




John Perrotto


AL Standings


AL East       AL Central       AL West
Red Sox       Indians          Athletics
Yankees *     Twins            Angels
Rays          Tigers           Rangers
Blue Jays     White Sox        Mariners
Orioles       Royals 


AL MVP

1. Matt Holliday
2. Mark Teixeira
3. Grady Sizemore


AL Cy Young

1. CC Sabathia
2. Roy Halladay
3. Jon Lester


AL RotY

1. David Price
2. Travis Snider
3. Brett Anderson


NL Standings


NL East       NL Central       NL West
Phillies      Cubs             Dodgers
Mets *        Cardinals        Diamondbacks
Braves        Brewers          Rockies
Marlins       Reds             Padres
Nationals     Astros           Giants
              Pirates


NL MVP

1. Manny Ramirez
2. David Wright
3. Milton Bradley


NL Cy Young

1. Johan Santana
2. Rich Harden
3. Cole Hamels


NL RotY

1. Cameron Maybin
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Dexter Fowler




Joe Sheehan


AL Standings


AL East       AL Central       AL West
Red Sox       Indians          Athletics
Yankees *     Twins            Angels
Rays          Tigers           Rangers
Blue Jays     Royals           Mariners
Orioles       White Sox


AL MVP

1. Mark Teixeira
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Matt Holliday


AL Cy Young

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Roy Halladay
3. Francisco Liriano


AL RotY

1. Matt Wieters
2. David Price
3. Travis Snider


NL Standings


NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Braves *      Reds             Diamondbacks
Phillies      Brewers          Giants
Marlins       Cardinals        Rockies
Nationals     Astros           Padres
              Pirates


NL MVP

1. Jose Reyes
2. Brian McCann
3. Johan Santana


NL Cy Young

1. Johan Santana
2. Chad Billingsley
3. Tim Lincecum


NL RotY

1. Dexter Fowler
2. Cameron Maybin
3. Ken Kawakami


You need to be logged in to comment. Login or Subscribe
scottlong
4/06
Has there ever been a year where there was more divergence in opinion on a division than what is going on with the AL Central? Sheehan picks the White Sox last, but Karhl and Carroll have them in first. We will see.
kipwells
4/09
I will certainly admit that putting teams in order in the ALC was almost a coin flip. I have no problem envisioning a division that has the 5th place team less than 10 games out of first place.
mandamin
4/06
Did five people vote for an NL CYA twice? Doesn't seem to add up. It's kind of amazing that 3/4 of the ballots named one of two guys AL MVP, and that 1/3 of the ballots named a 1B that PECOTA likes to put up a traditional line of .281/28/100 (and who two of the people who voted for him don't think will be playing for a first-place team). Could well be absolutely right--I'm just sayin'.
ckahrl
4/06
The voting's cleared up--Lincecum wins, despite the oddity of his getting only five first-place votes to Santana's six, because Santana only got two other votes (a second and a third), while Lincecum got four seconds and a third. The AL MVP voting's definitely an entertaining crapshoot... I decided to refer to my picking the White Sox in the Central and entertain the scenario where Ramirez's move to short goes fine, he does something exciting, and the voters decide that they have to pick somebody. That led me to give a lot of thought to whether or not a Beckham call-up in the second half made a difference in getting him a third-place vote in AL RotY, but I decided to run with a guess that Andrus gets credit for a better Rangers pitching performance, and that gets recognized.
yankee
4/06
I guess everyone loves the Red Sox I DON'T PAUL
copperfield
4/06
Has there ever been a team that had both the Cy Young and the MVP and didnt go to the postseason? I glanced down the lists on baseballreference and didn't have one jump out at me (even when both awards went to one player). I know I must be missing one.
RahulN
4/06
Joe, as a Braves fan and reader of the WSJ, I couldn't help but notice you changed your pick for NL Champion to the Dodgers on the wsj article from the Braves on your BP article. Any particular reason?
jsheehan
4/06
So I can maximize my chances of bragging about being right. No, I gave it some additional thought between having to send in the Journal picks and doing my "official" ones.
joeboxr36
4/06
Hey John Perrotto, care to justify picking the Padres ahead of the Giants? I thought all the Pads' fans had to look forward to was good weather?
formersd
4/07
It's gonna a long season for this Padre fan.
sbnirish77
4/06
What's new here? BP picks the Red Sox, Indians and A's. What is surprising is that even Christina couldn't pull the trigger on the A's.
ckahrl
4/06
Or the Indians. I figure I'll be off of everybody's Christmas lists by May Day.
mhmosher
4/07
The BP love affair with Oakland and Billy Beane continues. Despite having next to NO PITCHING, the A's are winning the West. Ok.
mhmosher
4/07
With you negative ratings, why don't you enlighten me as to why the A's are the team to beat out West. I'm all ears.
dpdst10
4/07
Two fourth place votes for the Pirates, and in one of which we beat the Reds! Based on what? If we recall Alvarez and McCutchen next month and finally bench Nyjer Morgan and Andy LaRoche, then put Vazquez in for most of the games at shortstop, we still don't have enough pitching to compete yet.
jessehoffins
4/07
Han Ram never once picked outright for MVP. Hmmm.
ckahrl
4/07
Probably a case of "guess the electorate's next jump" instead of a reflection of any heartfelt disregard for the league's best player.
MikeJordan23
4/07
Albert Pujols >>>>> Hanley Ramirez. Offensively it's not particularly close (last season 100 points higher in OBP and Slugging), and Pujols is better defensively. Unless Ramirez is getting extra points because he can steals bases.
mhmosher
4/07
Hanley is fantasy's best player...not the National League's best. That's Pujols by a mile.
jwlowe13
4/07
Why is there no predictatron contest this year so we can all get out picks in?
NL2003
4/07
Second on the predictratron.
mhmosher
4/07
Third. Come on guys.
Drungo
4/07
Interesting that William Burke has the Orioles finishing third (the only case where anyone had them above 4th), yet doesn't mention Matt Wieters in his top 3 for ROY. Kind of hard to imagine them competing without a big year from Wieters. And kind of hard to imagine a big year from Wieters not getting him in the top 3 for ROY.
jalonzo
4/07
you leave william burke alone. he was also the only one to pick my cardinals to win the central. otoh, there was also one person to pick them fifth, behind the freaking pirates. david laurila, you are dead to me.
kipwells
4/09
There is really no way to justify the Orioles over the Rays objectively (or as they say "on paper"), it just feels like there aren't enough wins to go around in the ALE. However, I am of the opinion that Tampa will slide back out of the playoffs this year and not because they are bad, but because of fatigue issues and the nature of how many things have to break the right way for a team to make a dramatic turnaround in their fortunes. I think they are a very good team and would easily be the favorite in the other two AL divisions. As for no Wieters in my ROY picks, I spend way too much time in the data and I tried to NOT parrot PECOTA's love affair with Wieters (also notice no votes for C.Guzman for NL MVP!) or maybe I am just bitter because he isn't on any of my fantasy teams.
kdierman
4/07
Strangely enough, I didn't see Jimmy Rollins mentioned for MVP. If Ted Lilly wins a CyYoung, or if Milton Bradley wins an MVP - It would be more shocking to me than say a Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. NL ROY darkhorses: Emilio Bonaficio (faster than Bolt) Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, or Chris Perez (whichever from these 3 relievers that ends up with 25 plus Cardinal saves) AL ROY darkhorses: Josh Anderson Tigers OF Gordon Beckham White Sox SS (Alexi shifts to 2B)
kdierman
4/07
check that - McClellan quietly logged 70 innings for the Big Club last year
thejewishkid
4/10
For all intensive purposes, EVERYBODY PICKS THE CHALK. WOW, good work guys!!!!!!