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March 31, 2009

Future Shock

Tuesday's Monday Ten Pack

by Kevin Goldstein


A day late and a dollar short as they say, as the in-season Monday regular feature returns 24 hours late in the first Ten Pack of the year.

Ryan Harvey, OF, and Mark Pawelek, LHP (ex-Cubs)
The Cubs were 26th in this year's organizational rankings, and that's mostly due to some really bad draft picks of late. The situation was made all the more glaring by this week's release of Harvey and Pawelek, a pair of former highly touted first-round selections. The sixth overall pick in 2003, Harvey signed for a $2.4 million bonus, the fourth-highest bonus paid for anyone in the draft that year. The pick was hardly controversial; the Tampa-area product stood 6'5" and 220 pounds and was a ripped athlete with plus-plus power and an outstanding arm. He led the Midwest League in home runs and RBI in his full-season debut in 2005, but there were already red flags appearing around his game, as he struck out 137 times in 467 at-bats with just 24 walks, leading to a .302 on-base percentage. He went backwards the following two years, and then spent 2007 and 2008 unable to escape the Florida State League while dealing with injuries. Two years after drafting Harvey, the Cubs appeared to have quite a find in Pawelek, when the left-hander that some saw as the top high school pitcher in the draft fell to 20th overall due to bonus concerns, and quickly signed for a slightly over-slot bonus of $1.75 million. Seen as a highly polished product who might move quickly, instead conditioning issues, effort issues, and the occasional ridiculous injury (he broke his non-throwing arm two years ago by tripping over his PlayStation) led to just four innings in a full-season league, and just 149 1/3 IP overall in his four professional seasons. Harvey and Pawelek were supposed to be the team's starting right fielder and a fixture in the rotation by now, but instead they're just footnotes in a long thesis proving that the draft is an inexact science.

Jason Kipnis, OF, Arizona State University
A fourth-round pick by San Diego last year as a sophomore-eligible player, Kipnis was the seventh-highest player not to sign in the 2008 draft. He's an interesting prospect with a little power and a bit of speed, but pro scouts had problems seeing him as a center fielder, and when he tried to bump up his value by playing in the Cape Cod League during negotiations, it backfired when he had a rough showing in the wood-bat league; he and the Padres never came close to an agreement. Right now it's looking like it might work out for Kipnis, who could go higher in this year's draft in a college class that is desperately lacking in hitters. With another great weekend, Kipnis is now batting .469/.569/.914 in 23 games, going 38-for-81 with eight home runs, 20 walks, and 11 stolen bases, and while scouts still question his ability to play in the middle pasture, they're so desperate for anything resembling a decent performance that he's rising on many draft boards.

Andrew McCutchen, CF (Pirates)
Overall, the Pirates' spring training camp was incredibly positive in terms of its tone. Pedro Alvarez looked fantastic in a brief big-league look, third baseman Andy LaRoche finally appears to be ready to fulfill his promise, and the pitching staff, especially Paul Maholm and Ross Ohlendorf, looked sharp. However, the story of the last two weeks was McCutchen, as the former first-round pick ended his spring on a roll, bringing his averages up to .318/.423/.561 before being assigned to minor league camp on Monday. He returns to Triple-A with a few little things left to work on—maintaining his consistent approach, and using his speed on the basepaths more effectively—and provided nothing goes wrong, he should be called up at some point during the season; any team beginning the year with Nyjer Morgan playing every day obviously needs some help in the outfield. This team is going to be a dangerous one offensively in the next two or three years, and players like McCutchen are giving Pirates fans something they haven't had for years—a glimmer of hope.

Ryan Perry, RHP (Tigers)
Perry has officially faced 65 batters as a professional, but with Joel Zumaya remaining firmly in the 'broken' file, we approach April with him still in camp as the favorite to begin the year in the big leagues. One of the fastest risers in last year's draft, Perry really hasn't missed a beat since last spring at Arizona, as he's sat at 96-98 mph with an overpowering fastball while giving up just one run on eight hits over 11 2/3 innings this spring. To put him in the big leagues at this point is probably more out of the team absolute need than a reflection of his readiness, but scouts are saying that the quality stuff he's showing should be enough for him to easily hold his own, and should help the stock of this year's crop of college closers as teams look for some instant returns in the draft.

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