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Jacoby Ellsbury
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Center Field
Bats L
Age 24
6' 1"
185 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
CF 1 Jacoby Ellsbury 60 469 .288 95 5 59 36 .348 .397 13.2
LF 4 Jacoby Ellsbury 20 145 .288 95 5 59 36 .348 .397 13.2
RF 7 Jacoby Ellsbury 10 67 .288 95 5 59 36 .348 .397 13.2
3   2008 Total 90 681 .288 95 5 59 36 .348 .397 13.2

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 LOW 1A 165 28 3 5 1 19 24 20 23 3 0.1 .317 .418 .432 .256 .245 .321 .340 .249 -3.8 26-CF -2 0.8
2006 WIL 1C 281 35 7 5 4 32 25 28 25 9 2.5 .299 .379 .418 .159 .263 .323 .369 .245 0.8 58-CF 4 1.4
2006 PME 2A 225 29 10 3 3 19 24 25 16 8 -0.2 .308 .387 .434 .199 .284 .356 .408 .267 9.2 47-CF 6 1.7
2007 PME 2A 83 16 10 2 0 13 6 7 8 1 1.1 .452 .518 .644 .782 .360 .422 .533 .330 11.1 18-CF 3 1.4
2007 PAW 3A 401 66 14 5 2 28 32 47 33 6 2.2 .298 .360 .380 .036 .270 .332 .358 .253 1.9 66-CF -10 2.2
2007 BOS MJ 127 20 7 1 3 18 8 15 9 0 0.1 .353 .394 .509 .285 .348 .394 .530 .322 13.6 16-LF 0 1.8


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 9:40 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 567 97 33 8 8 54 46 74 35 9 2.8 .323 .384 .466 .172 .315 .380 .476 .304 38.2 133-CF -2 6.1
75o 561 88 31 7 7 52 45 74 33 9 2.7 .309 .370 .439 .100 .301 .366 .448 .292 28.1 132-CF -2 5.3
60o 554 80 28 6 6 50 43 73 32 8 2.6 .295 .355 .411 .028 .287 .351 .420 .279 18.2 130-CF -2 4.5
50o 549 74 26 6 5 48 42 73 30 8 2.5 .284 .343 .389 -.030 .276 .340 .397 .269 10.5 129-CF -2 3.9
40o 545 70 25 6 4 47 41 73 29 8 2.4 .276 .335 .373 -.070 .268 .332 .381 .261 5.2 128-CF -2 3.5
25o 541 65 23 5 3 45 40 73 28 8 2.3 .266 .325 .354 -.118 .259 .322 .362 .252 -1.1 127-CF -2 2.9
10o 534 59 21 4 2 43 38 72 26 7 2.2 .254 .312 .330 -.181 .247 .309 .337 .239 -9.1 126-CF -2 2.2
Weighted Mean 591 85 29 7 5 53 45 79 33 9 2.5 .288 .348 .397 -.009 .280 .344 .405 .272 11.7 138-CF -1 4.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

34%

54%

13%

13%

0.87

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 24) 591 85 29 7 5 53 45 79 33 9 2.5 .288 .348 .397 -.009 .280 .344 .405 .272 11.7 138-CF -1 4.8
2009 (age 25) 579 86 29 6 6 57 47 76 31 8 2.5 .296 .359 .410 .034 .292 .361 .426 .280 17.8 136-CF -1 4.7
2010 (age 26) 601 94 33 6 7 58 48 79 32 8 2.5 .302 .363 .424 .064 .299 .365 .441 .285 21.5 141-CF 1 5.1
2011 (age 27) 619 94 33 6 7 58 50 75 29 8 2.3 .294 .356 .409 .027 .291 .358 .426 .278 15.8 145-CF -3 4.2
2012 (age 28) 634 101 34 7 7 61 51 75 29 7 2.1 .301 .363 .423 .062 .297 .365 .440 .284 18.3 148-CF -1 4.3
2013 (age 29) 558 80 29 5 6 55 49 68 24 7 1.9 .293 .359 .409 .030 .289 .360 .426 .278 13.5 131-CF -3 3.6
2014 (age 30) 541 80 29 4 8 56 47 66 23 6 1.8 .304 .367 .429 .079 .300 .369 .447 .287 17.3 127-CF -6 3.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .265 .321 .352
vs RHP .297 .363 .430
Split -.032 -.041 -.078
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 2.3 2.5 4.8 $10,175,000 18.6 15.9
2009 2.6 2.0 4.7 $11,450,000 24.1 24.8
2010 2.9 2.2 5.1 $14,550,000 30.2 35.4
2011 2.4 1.8 4.2 $11,350,000 20.6 21.1
2012 2.5 1.8 4.3 $13,200,000 24.0 24.6
2013 2.0 1.5 3.6 $10,875,000 17.6 18.9
2014 2.3 1.3 3.6 $11,925,000 18.8 21.3
Peak 26.6 $57,300,000 135.2 145.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .292 .269 .252 .272
2009 .288 .272 .255 .280
2010 .291 .276 .262 .285
2011 .291 .273 .257 .278
2012 .294 .282 .258 .284
2013 .288 .276 .257 .278
2014 .305 .285 .249 .287


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 13% 0% 34%
2009 17% 3% 37%
2010 22% 6% 41%
2011 30% 7% 32%
2012 35% 17% 41%
2013 33% 17% 33%
2014 41% 22% 41%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

46

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Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Gene Richards 1992 40 11 Marquis Grissom 2003 33
2 Johnny Damon 1979 36 12 Nathan Haynes 1971 33
3 Richie Ashburn 1981 36 13 Jim Piersall 1982 33
4 Vince Coleman 1970 36 14 Willie Wilson 1960 33
5 Jerry Mumphrey 1973 35 15 Del Unser 2007 32
6 Wally Moon 1992 35 16 Lou Brock 1975 32
7 Tommy McCraw 1975 34 17 Dave Martinez 1969 32
8 Steve Sax 1975 34 18 Michael Bourn 2000 31
9 Rick Manning 1957 34 19 Mckay Christensen 1979 30
10 Shannon Stewart 1998 33 20 Randy Winn 2005 30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

This speedy center fielder was the first of Boston`s five first-round picks in 2005. Thus far, he`s fully justified both the team`s investment and the inevitable Damon comparisons. Ellsbury has climbed through the system rapidly, showing significant improvement at each stop, excellent on-base skills, developing power, and outstanding range in the field; he was honored as both the organization`s defensive player and baserunner of the year. Coco Crisp may be signed through 2009, but bet on the Sox to offload him when Ellsbury is ready.

2006

With their first pick (23rd overall) in the 2005 draft, the Red Sox took Ellsbury, who led Oregon State to its first College World Series appearance since 1952. Inevitably, the speedy centerfielder drew comparisons to Damon. Like Damon, he has fine on-base skills, good speed and gap power to go along with good defensive range and a below-average arm. Expect a rapid advancement through the lower minors, but how far he goes beyond that depends on his bat.


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