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March 10, 2009

Future Shock

Rangers Top 11 Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

top 11 prospects

TEXAS RANGERS
Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart

Five-Star Prospects
1. Neftali Feliz, RHP
2. Justin Smoak, 1B
3. Derek Holland, LHP
Four-Star Prospects
4. Michael Main, RHP
5. Engel Beltre, CF
6. Elvis Andrus, SS
Three-Star Prospects
7. Martin Perez, LHP
8. Max Ramirez, C
9. Taylor Teagarden, C
10. Neil Ramirez, RHP
11. Wilfredo Boscan, RHP

Just Missed: Julio Borbon, CF; Blake Beavan, RHP; Jose Vallejo, 2B

Ranking Challenges: The top of the list was fairly straightforward, but ordering the last five spots proved to be a significant challenge; the deeper I went with the analysis, the more flipping, adding, and removing I did. This is a tremendously deep system filled with legitimate prospects, many of whom are not even included here, though they would easily rank in the middle of other team's lists.

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39 comments have been left for this article.

BP Comment Quick Links

code of conduct

DGBL

(32998)

What kind of ceiling does Font have?

And I've read some reports that Boscan could throw harder as he fills out. You buy it?

Mar 10, 2009 09:07 AM

rating: 0

ptullar

(38631)

Has Beavan's velocity come back?

Please, Perfect World Projections (1-5 or bullpen)for:

Beavan
Gomez
Murphy
Wieland
Ross
Kiker

Thanks.

Mar 10, 2009 09:31 AM

rating: 0

ramjam36

(48297)

Kevin, I'm glad to see the love for Beltre. I know there are definitely questions, but his tools are just ridiculous! People are forgetting that he was in the toughest hitters league in the minors. I can't wait to see what he does in Bakersfield.

Mar 10, 2009 09:41 AM

rating: 0

ramjam36

(48297)

ptullar, I know that Beavan's velo was back up to 93-95 in instructional league...though it was in short stints. The big change with him was his arm angle. The Rangers raised it from low 3/4 to high so he could take advantage of his height and help the bite on his breaking ball. His command was very impressive this year though.

Mar 10, 2009 09:45 AM

rating: 0

DGBL

(32998)

I've read some reports that say Robbie Ross profiles similarly to Kiker - any truth to that?

Mar 10, 2009 09:46 AM

rating: 0

ramjam36

(48297)

Its tempting to compare Ross to Kiker because he's a short high school southpaw, but Kiker has a little more velo, a curve, and a plus change, while Ross has a plus slider and better command. I'm very excited to see what both of them do this season, and I'm expecting a strong comeback from Kiker.

Mar 10, 2009 09:57 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

Sure, in the sense that they're both lefty and a bit on the small side. Kiker probably has more oomph, but Ross has better polish and secondary stuff at the same age.

Mar 10, 2009 10:00 AM

ramjam36

(48297)

Kevin, what are your thoughts on Thomas Diamond? Do you think he can come back and still wind up as an above average starter in the bigs? The Rangers said his stuff has looked good this Spring, and he scrapped his curve for a "promising slider". Do you think Vallejo can turn into a super-utility type along the lines of Chone Figgins?

Mar 10, 2009 09:51 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

I've always like Diamond as a bullpen guy -- people who have known me for a while know I've been saying that since he was drafted, so I still have hope there. I actually wouldn't rule out Vallejo turning out as a starter.

Mar 10, 2009 10:01 AM

ElAngelo

(942)

Ah, the 3rd part of the "DVD" trio. Too bad Danks and Volzquez are doing well elsewhere...

Mar 10, 2009 10:03 AM

rating: -1

Aaron/YYZ

(34268)

KG, I take it the scouts see a fair bit of regression in Andrus' BB% once the major league pitchers get a chance to work him over? His 7.3% last year just doesn't seem that bad for a guy described as impatient.

Mar 10, 2009 10:15 AM

rating: 0

Drew Miller

(22526)

What an obnoxiously-good system. I'm still smarting from giving up a guy like Beltre in exchange for Eric Freaking Gagne.

Mar 10, 2009 10:31 AM

rating: 1

irablum

(1386)

Don't forget David Murphy AND Kason Gabbard. Gabbard might not be a great major league pitcher, and Murphy might not be a great major league hitter, but Basically Gagne cost the Sox to major leaguers PLUS Beltre.

Ira

Mar 10, 2009 14:54 PM

rating: 1

alskor

(39403)

Word is Gabbard is being converted to a LOOGY/LH reliever.

David Murphy and Kason Gabbard are two very marginal MLB players. Beltre was the entire deal, and while he has tools coming out the kazoo, he hasnt really produced or turned those into skill yet.

Moot point because Gagne was so bad for Boston, but this deal wasnt nearly as skewed as youre making it. In fact, if Gagne hadnt sucked so hard the Sox would have gotten a comp pick for him. It was amazing he performed poorly enough to lose Type A status...

Mar 10, 2009 17:04 PM

rating: -1

gilgamesh

(19005)

It seems pretty clear Max Ram will get flipped ... just wondering to who.

Mar 10, 2009 11:03 AM

rating: 0

Zach Zwilling

(23779)

This was briefly addressed- but Teagarden dropped 2 spots despite raking the last two months of the season. Is this due to the system developing around him, or has he disappointed in some way? Is there any chance he has just enough power to be a threat in Arlington and pedestrian on the road?

Mar 10, 2009 12:50 PM

rating: -1

irablum

(1386)

To say that the Rangers Prospects are developing around Tea is an understatement.....

This is a list of the top 11 Rangers from 2008:
1) Feliz (and a very controversial pick I may add, as no one else had him higher than 4th, with Scott Lucas placing him 13th and Jamey Newberg ranking him 10th)
2) Eric Hurley (now off their list entirely)
3) Elvis Andrus (now ranked 6th)
4) Engel Beltre (now ranked 5th)
5) Michael Main (now ranked 4th)
6) Chris Davis (now a major leaguer)
7) Taylor Teagarden (now ranked 9th)
8) Blake Beavan (who's now an honorable mention
9) Matt Harrison (now a major leaguer)
10) Max Ramirez (now 8th)
11) German Duran (either listed as a Major Leaguer or just dropped from the list.)

The new list includes:
2) Justing Smoak (just drafted)
3) Derrek Holland (on no one's radar one year ago)
7) Martin Perez (only 17 last year)
10) Neil Ramirez
11) Wilfredo Boscan

Basically, Smoak and Holland have jumped past everyone on the list eexcept FELIZ

Ira

Mar 10, 2009 14:50 PM

rating: 0

Drese4Cy

(19168)

Max Ramirez could be the Rangers DH by June if Blalock is moved for some reason.

All we really hear about are the Rangers rotation prospects, but they have some elite late inning prospects too.

Kiker and Diamond both seem like they could be nails out of the pen. Roll them out there with a group including Madrigal, Francisco, a healthy Wilson, and Josh Rupe. That isnt a bad home grown bullpen.

Mar 10, 2009 12:53 PM

rating: -2

clobberthesaurus

(18302)

So gun to your head, Kevin: A's system or the Rangers system?

Mar 10, 2009 14:04 PM

rating: 0

IvanGrushenko

(45528)

Kevin, it seems that some systems like this one and the A's could use a longer list, if for no other reason than to discuss prospects that haven't been discussed a lot elsewhere. Any thought to expanding to a Top 21 or something next year?

Mar 10, 2009 14:21 PM

rating: 3

DGBL

(32998)

or at least do a series of articles profiling the "just missed" guys from each team.

Mar 10, 2009 15:25 PM

rating: 0

alskor

(39403)

Please! I suggested this before in the Indians Top 11 comments and got no response.

I would love to see the write ups for some of these guys!

Mar 10, 2009 17:06 PM

rating: 0

Conjunction

(49746)

Thanks for the list, Kevin!
So, in this Cold War Arms Race, which franchise is the US and which the USSR?

Mar 10, 2009 14:35 PM

rating: 0

mwashuc06

(47497)

Do you think Feliz's upside is that of a Pedro Martinez or a healthy right handed Francisco Liriano?

Mar 10, 2009 16:15 PM

rating: -1

alskor

(39403)

No one's upside is Pedro Martinez. That's ridiculous.

Mar 10, 2009 17:07 PM

rating: 3

alskor

(39403)

That's like asking:

Do you think Smoak's upside is that of a Lou Gehrig or a healthy switch hitting Prince Fielder?

Mar 10, 2009 17:12 PM

rating: 3

mymrbig

(38334)

I disagree. Clearly someone's upside is Pedro Martinez. His name was Pedro Martinez. And unless you somehow think no one better will ever come along (talking about peak seasons relative to what the rest of the league was doing), then why can't that be someone's upside? Maybe a prudent scout/analyst/whatever wouldn't use Pedro as a comp for anyone (I'm not really saying they should or shouldn't), but if a guy has a bunch of nasty pitches, why can't Pedro be a comp? I mean, if someone used Pedro as an upside comp a few years ago, would that person have been that "ridiculous"?

Mar 10, 2009 22:31 PM

rating: -3

alskor

(39403)

Yes, that person would have been ridiculous.

Yes, I think its quite possible no one better will ever come along (talking about peak seasons relative to what the rest of the league was doing).

Its silly to list all-time greats as upside for prospects. Saying "his upside is Pedro" is like saying his upside is Ruth or Koufax. At his peak, Pedro can certainly make an argument for best season of all time, relative to era. Its absurd to list that as an upside comp because really, we arent talking about his relatively short peak or 2008 Pedro. if youre listing Pedro as his upside you mean peak Pedro. There quite possibly was no one better than his 98, 99 seasons. Its like asking what are the chances that Neftali Feliz's upside is "the best pitcher ever?" Its distasteful and counter productive.

Mar 11, 2009 04:31 AM

rating: 0

ramjam36

(48297)

Everyone seems to forget that Pedro was pitching in the prime HR era, and that the league ERA was around 5.00 for those two seasons. I don't think anyone was ever that dominant when you compare them to the rest of the pitchers in baseball at that time. The only ones that come close are Gibson and Koufax. I agree with alskor, though you were a little harsh.

Mar 11, 2009 07:50 AM

rating: 1

irablum

(1386)

Actually, Gibson and Koufax weren't all that close to Pedro. Its probably best to go by ERA+ and then pay attention to unearned runs.

Here's the top ten:

1) Tim Keefe 294, 1880
2) Pedro Martinez 291, 1999
3) Dutch Leonard 279, 1914
4) Greg Maddux 271, 1994
5) Greg Maddux 262, 1995
6) Walter Johnson 259, 1913
7) Bob Gibson 258, 1968
8) Mordecai Brown 253, 1906
9) Pedro Martinez 243, 1999
10) Walter Johnson 242, 1912

1) Keefe's year was only 100 innings, and included 17 unearned runs. (on the other hand, it was his ROOKIE year)
2) Vote Pedro. Only 2 unearned runs. (only 29 starts)
3) Swing man. started 25 games, relieved 9, led the team with 3 saves. And allowed 10 unearned runs. (plus it was the deadball era)
4) strike shortened to only 25 starts and allowed 9 unearned runs. But still an amazing accomplishment.
5) better year then #4, with only 1 unearned run allowed and 28 starts made (though it was strike shortened).
6) 12 unearned runs, though he did start 36 games and relieve in 12 more. Incredible season.
7) Well, maybe Gibson's 1968 wasn't that far off. Certainly the best season between Walter Johnson and Greg Maddux.
8) 24 unearned runs turn this historic season into merely a very good one.
9) Pedro's warmup to godhood
10) Walter Johnson's warmup to godhood.

Basically, three pitchers here stand out:
Pedro, Maddux, and Walter Johnson.

Looking at the career list, you get Pedro, Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove, some other deadball guys with short careers, a bunch of relievers, some current stars, and Roger Clemens.

So, Who's the best pitcher of all time? Personally, my top 5 is Walter Johnson, Pedro, Clemens, Maddux, and Lefty Grove.

Mar 11, 2009 10:35 AM

rating: 2

anderson721

(18704)

Every time I see something like this I curse the name of Delino Deshields.

Mar 11, 2009 16:32 PM

rating: 1

ostrowj1

(8095)

Shouldn't it be easier to pose a high era+ at a time when the average era is high? I wonder Pedro's excellent numbers are in part a result of a glut of bad pitchers in the MLB. If you were a hitter and you faced ace pitchers day in and day out you would be better prepared to face a guy like Pedro. If you saw garbage every day, even if you are a great player, it must be hard to make the adjustments fast enough to have a shot. In no way am I trying to diminish what he did... he was phenomenal.

Mar 11, 2009 11:33 AM

rating: 0

ramjam36

(48297)

The other pitcher's weren't garbage, the offense was just ridiculous. That is exactly why his dominance is that much more impressive. My Top 5

Pedro
Clemens
Big Train
Gibson
Maddux

And if we knew a little more statistically, I'm sure Satchel Paige was as good or better than ANY of those guys.

Mar 11, 2009 13:51 PM

rating: 1

alskor

(39403)

That's a pretty convoluted hypothesis. Occam's razor wise, I think we can safely say Pedro was just really, really good.

Does anyone claim Babe Ruth wasnt really that much better than his peers, but rather that the pitchers day in and day out just faced so many garbage hitters that they werent prepared to face a guy like the Babe?

One can only wonder at how ridiculous Pedro's numbers might have looked had he hit his peak in 2008 instead of in the middle of an offensive explosion.

Mar 11, 2009 16:21 PM

rating: 0

JAEckhardt

(49811)

The Gagne trade would be a wash if Gagne had performed well for the Red Sox. Too bad he didn't. Trade goes to the Rangers.

Mar 11, 2009 09:51 AM

rating: 0

West21

(16224)

What happened to Eric Hurley? Is he injured? Or just bad?

Mar 11, 2009 15:05 PM

rating: 0

ramjam36

(48297)

He had arm soreness last season after a few solid starts with the Rangers and missed the rest of the season. Then they realized he had a torn rotator cuff before spring training this year, and he will miss the entire year. He looked like the mid rotation starter he is projected to be in his 1st 3 starts with Texas though, and I still believe he can be when he gets healthy.

Mar 11, 2009 15:58 PM

rating: 0

alskor

(39403)

Torn rotator cuff AND torn labrum.

From Rotoworld:

"Rangers pitching prospect Eric Hurley is expected to miss the 2009 season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff and frayed labrum in his right shoulder.

Rotator cuff and labrum damage is the worst possible combination for a pitcher and will likely be tougher to come back from than Tommy John elbow surgery. Hurley made his MLB debut as a 22-year-old and looked like a long-term No. 3 starter in the making, but is now out for 2009 and a major question mark beyond that."

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=437

Going to be out for a long time. Decent chance he's toast...

Mar 11, 2009 16:24 PM

rating: 0

evo34

(33584)

No mention of Feliz's control problems? If he's a top 5 overall prospect with 23 BB in 45 IP in AA, I would expect the issue at least to be addressed in the writeup.

Apr 01, 2009 04:02 AM

rating: -1

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