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May 27, 2014

Dynasty Dynamics

The U25 Top 150, Part Three

by Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

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To read the previous editions in the rankings series, click below:

We’ve done it, Internet. We’ve compiled a Big List of Players just for you.

Craig and I have spent the past six weeks breaking down each division, forming individual top-30 U25 dynasty rankings and comparing those lists with some witty (read: tired) commentary in each installment. We’ve also been debating each list on TINO, with the help of Dear Leader Bret Sayre and Mauricio Rubio, and have fielded many questions and concerns on Twitter and via the comments section, too.

Now, Craig and I have combined forces to form a collaborative top-150 list meant to give dynasty leaguers a concrete view of where we think each player’s value lies at this point in time. This is a great exercise because it forced Craig and I to defend players we love and form cogent arguments (a new experience, to be sure) against players we dislike, and I know I’ve personally changed my evaluations of a few prospects and post-prospects through this process.

That being said, we’re still going to provide you with a few tidbits of our own personal feelings about these rankings, and we strongly encourage you to ask us questions in the comments below. We still disagree on some of these players, but overall I think we’ve come to a happy, reasonable consensus.

As always, players will have to be born after April 1, 1988, to qualify, and just like with the preseason lists, there is of course an element of subjectivity that comes with these rankings. But unlike the preseason lists, these rankings are all about fantasy.

Dynasty U25 Top 150 Rankings, No. 1-50

  1. Mike Trout, OF, LAA
  2. Bryce Harper, OF, WAS
  3. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA
  4. Xander Bogaerts, SS, BOS
  5. Manny Machado, 3B, BAL
  6. Stephen Strasburg, SP, WAS
  7. Chris Sale, SP, CHW
  8. Yasiel Puig, OF, LAD
  9. Gerrit Cole, SP, PIT
  10. Javier Baez, SS, CHC
  11. Byron Buxton, OF, MIN
  12. Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL
  13. Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC
  14. Jason Heyward, OF, ATL
  15. Oscar Taveras, OF, STL
  16. Madison Bumgarner, SP, SF
  17. Anthony Rendon, 2B/3B, WAS
  18. Wil Myers, OF, TB
  19. Julio Teheran, SP, ATL
  20. Masahiro Tanaka, SP, NYY
  21. Jurickson Profar, 2B, TEX
  22. Shelby Miller, SP, STL
  23. Jose Fernandez, SP, MIA
  24. Matt Harvey, SP, NYM
  25. Craig Kimbrel, RP, ATL
  26. Carlos Correa, SS, HOU
  27. Addison Russell, SS, OAK
  28. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, CHC
  29. Gregory Polanco, OF, PIT
  30. Michael Wacha, SP, STL
  31. Yordano Ventura, SP, KC
  32. Miguel Sano, 3B, MIN
  33. Starling Marte, OF, PIT
  34. Billy Hamilton, OF, CIN
  35. Sonny Gray, SP, OAK
  36. Zack Wheeler, SP, NYM
  37. Noah Syndergaard, SP, NYM
  38. Archie Bradley, SP, ARI
  39. Kevin Gausman, SP, BAL
  40. Starlin Castro, SS, CHC
  41. Dylan Bundy, SP, BAL
  42. Taijuan Walker, SP, SEA
  43. Jean Segura, SS, MIL
  44. Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX
  45. Christian Yelich, OF, MIA
  46. Jon Gray, SP, COL
  47. Nick Castellanos, 3B, DET
  48. George Springer, OF, HOU
  49. Lucas Giolito, SP, WAS
  50. Mark Appel, SP, HOU

Ranking Ben Feels Best About: Jason Heyward
There were plenty of candidates for this spot for me. I love where we have Teheran, my personal Shelby Miller crusade is reflected here, I’m glad we’re not out on Sano or Hamilton, and I like that we’ve bought into Castro and Gray, too. But I’m still proudest of Heyward, who I think will have more seasons like his 2012 campaign than his 2013 year moving forward. Heyward’s approach remains strong and his BABIP is slightly dragging down his average right now. He’s running like he did a few seasons back, and I’m a firm believer that the power will return as well. Heyward isn’t going to hit for high averages, but if he hits .270 with 20-plus homers and 20-plus steals on a regular basis, you won’t care. He’s especially valuable in OBP leagues, and I look forward to seeing him in a Red Sox uniform in 2016.

Ranking Craig Feels Best About: Xander Bogaerts
This was an aggressive ranking made by a Red Sox fan, and someone who is in love with Bogaerts. I stand by it though. Bogaerts is being shunted to third base, at least part time, but has already played enough to retain SS eligibility into 2015. I think he moves back there next year as Drew goes elsewhere. He’s not hitting for power right now, but he’s got the frame for it and makes enough contact that he should do damage in time. He continues to walk a lot - a borderline passive approach - but he’s also proven he can make adjustments and I think finding that line between selective and passive comes soon. He’ll hit for average and get on base in the meantime, and there’s plenty of value in that. When the power comes, he’ll be one of the best young players in baseball.

Ranking Ben Feels Worst About: Zack Wheeler
I’ve been on the Wheeler bandwagon for a long time, but I wonder if I’m being a bit too lenient with him because of my long-standing fondness for his swing-and-miss stuff. Wheeler is striking out batters at a good-but-not-elite 21.2 percent rate this season, but walks continue to be a huge struggle for the soon-to-be 24-year-old. I do eventually think we’ll see him challenge for 200-plus strikeouts per season, but some of that value might be mitigated by his WHIP. I still think he belongs on this portion of the list, but if you want to argue he should be 20-30 spots lower, I’d listen.

Ranking Craig Feels Worst About: Starling Marte
I’ve long been a low man on Marte, and the concerns were founded in his approach. I can’t argue with the season he put together last year, nor his improvement in stealing bases this year (12/15 compared to 41/56 last year), but he’s hitting closer to .260 like he did in his debut season rather than the .280 his did in 2013. If that’s who he is, his on-base issues become more of an issue, even if he can seem to supplement them with an inordinate amount of hit by pitches. His placement in this category is less about Marte than it is about the players behind him. I think Marte will continue to be valuable in fantasy, thanks mostly to stolen bases, but that the players around and behind him will surpass him in short order.

Ben’s Fastest Riser: Gregory Polanco
An obvious choice, perhaps, but still a good one. Polanco is laying waste to Triple-A right now and would likely already be in the majors were it not for the unfortunate economics of baseball. He’s a true five-category fantasy threat, the Pirates’ no. 3 hitter of the near future and a threat for NL ROY this season, even if he only receives 400 PA. Headed into the year, we often spoke about the “elite four” group of prospects consisting of Bogaerts, Baez, Buxton and Taveras. Honestly, Polanco should probably be a part of that discussion now and if we’re ranking him next to Puig in a year, I won’t be surprised.

C​raig’s Fastest Riser: Yordano Ventura
Editor's note: This was written before Ventura left Monday's game with an injury. Craig regrets his hubris, but is pleased to confirm that our god is a merciless god.

By year’s end, he’ll be the only healthy starting pitcher, elevating him to elite status and causing those of us who believed at him as a starter all the way to laugh deliriously at those who threw the reliever label on him.

Legitimately though, he’s pushing a 2.80 ERA through his first 50-plus innings, averaging better than a strikeout per nine innings with a healthy 1.134 WHIP. If he can finish the season with close to 200 innings with some minor regression, he’ll have been one of the better pitchers in all of baseball much less of those 25 and under.

Ben’s Surprising Name Who Could Drop: Bryce Harper
This is a bit of a #hotsportstake, but I’m going to throw it out there nonetheless. If we’re halfway through the 2015 season and Harper has once again spent a month-plus on the DL, at what point do we start acknowledging that staying on the field isn’t a strong suit here? Harper is immensely talented and I agree with those who say that 40 homers are coming someday. But I expect the SB totals to continue to drop as he ages, and while he might be better than 90% of the league with just 75 percent of the playing time, that still means he could find himself down a few spots on this list. Aside from a career-threatening injury, there’s pretty much nothing Harper can do to drop off the top-10 here. But I don’t think we can assume that he’ll stay at no. 2 forever. He may have more staying power because of his age, but Stanton and Puig are better players right now. At some point, that will need to be reflected in these rankings.

Craig’s Surprising Name Who Could Drop: Manny Machado
This isn’t a prediction so much as acknowledging a possibility. Machado is still so young that what he’s doing deserves to be recognized as impressive. He produced an OPS+ above league average at 20 years old in 2013, which is absolutely remarkable. That said, he did much of that damage in the first half of the season and has struggled to return to form here in 2014 following a late season injury. It’s a little unfair to hold this against him, as if these struggles happened in the minors they’d be labeled as part of the developmental process. He is at the major league level however, and when he struggles and his production flags, it negatively impacts your fantasy team. So if you’re going to roster him, that affects his overall value. I’m still 100 percent on board the Manny Machado bandwagon, but we’re looking at a player who had some questions on his future power production to begin with, who is struggling badly out of the gates after a poor second half last year. At some point that has to come into play, and newer, shinier, more effective options could (not necessarily will) pass him by.

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here
Craig Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Craig's other articles. You can contact Craig by clicking here

Related Content:  Fantasy,  U25

26 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

majnun

I was a little surprised to see Hosmer so high. Is that me being impatient, or so this upside-related? The lack of power used to be balanced by the steals, but he's abandoned that aspect of his game (maybe).

RIP Ventura :-(

May 27, 2014 05:02 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Ben Carsley
BP staff

It might be Craig and I being too patient. We originally had Hosmer even higher than this, but at a certain point we need to recognize the reality of his lack of production. I still think he's going to put it together and explode, but Craig and I are out on a limb on this one.

May 27, 2014 05:15 AM
 
wjmcknight37

Completely agree. A power hitter with a career 52% GB rate? It will be very difficult for the power to ever arrive. Without the power developing, he's a second division 1B and probably shouldn't even be in the top 150 at all.

May 27, 2014 12:36 PM
rating: 0
 
eadyankee

Jose Fernandez behind Shelby Miller is a bit surprising. What's the rationale there? Concern for Jose returning from TJ sucfessfully?

May 27, 2014 05:05 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Ben Carsley
BP staff

Yes. The rate of success with TJ is such that we don't have to knock Fernandez too badly, but we can't just assume complete recovery, either. Before the TJ, Fernandez was No. 3 on this list.

May 27, 2014 05:14 AM
 
eadyankee

Thanks for the reply. Really sad to lose Fernandez to TJ for all of baseball -- and for all dynasty owners (such as myself).

May 27, 2014 08:10 AM
rating: 0
 
eadyankee

Javier Baez at #10 overall seems a tad aggressive. He is understandably talented, but putting him over Buxton is a bit shocking, given all of the Trout comparisons I have heard raised for Buxton and Baez's rough 2014 start. Could you provide some insight into why Baez is in the top-10 here over more proven commodities like Freeman, Myers, Teheran?

May 27, 2014 08:05 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

Part of the reason for Baez over Buxton is that Buxton derives a fair bit of his value as a prospect for his defensive prowess, which is appreciated but not nearly as valuable in a fantasy format. There's also the fact that Buxton is in High-A versus Baez in Triple-A, and Buxton has missed most of the season with a wrist injury, and I don't think it's all that aggressive to have Baez in front right now. As for Baez's rough start, I think he's in the process of correcting that. We believe in the talent and the ability to make adjustments.

As for the more established options, my reasoning would be that the ceiling outweighs theirs. There's an argument to be made that he won't reach that ceiling, and I'm open to that. If you wanted to take Freeman over Baez, I get it. But we're talking a potential 35+ HR bat at shortstop, with a batting average that won't hurt you. That's a rare thing, and as good as Freeman is, 1B is a little deeper when it comes to impact bats.

Again, that's our (or at least my) reasoning. I don't think it's crazy to prefer a Freeman/Myers/etc, though.

May 27, 2014 08:20 AM
 
jonjacoby

Was this list done before the news on Jurikson Profar being out longer than expected? if yes, how far did he fall as a result and if not how much of an adjustment would be made?

May 27, 2014 08:22 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

Yes it was but it doesn't really drop him that much. Maybe behind Fernandez? That's a maybe. He's still 21, and he'll likely still play this season. The lost value for those 2-3 months sucks, but if we're looking at his long term value it just doesn't change much.

May 27, 2014 08:28 AM
 
nzach54

Um. Lindor?

May 27, 2014 08:57 AM
rating: -2
 
BP staff member Ben Carsley
BP staff

Uh, he's at 69

May 27, 2014 09:15 AM
 
Nojsztat

Check list 51-100

May 27, 2014 09:17 AM
rating: 0
 
NightmareRec0n

I think MadBum is ranked a bit low. I don't really see an difference between him a Chris Sale or Gerrit Cole for example.

I was actually going to make the same #hotsportstake as Ben. I might have actually ranked Stanton ahead of Harper. Stanton has already shown the elite power Harper is suppose have. Harper is somehow more injury prone than Stanton and he is reaching that point where 15 SB might be more likely than 30. We all love Harper because he has the "one of these years is going to go bonkers and hit 50 HR and steal 20 bases". But Stanton is practically doing that right now. He could reasonably end up with 45 HR and 10 SB this year.

May 27, 2014 10:55 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

Well, Sale strikes out more batters and walks fewer than Bumgarner. Allows fewer hits on a per nine inning basis throughout his career too. Oh, also a lower career ERA. He's done all of the same compared to Cole and has proven he can carry an ace's workload, something we expect of Cole, but that hasn't been proven yet. Yes, the differences in those stats are minor, but you're splitting hairs, so I will too.

As for Harper vs Stanton, I don't think that's a mistake at all. I'll agree with Ben that he might drop in the future, but I still firmly stand behind the ranking now. He's three years younger than Stanton, and while Harper is hurt now and Stanton isn't, Stanton missed 39 and 46 games each of the last two years and has more concerns about his build than does Harper. I'd still argue that Harper's injuries are mostly freakish - especially the thumb injury, though if you want to argue about style of player, I'll listen.

May 27, 2014 11:04 AM
 
NightmareRec0n

Thanks, I probably would still rank Harper ahead of Stanton for now, but that could change by the end of the season. And I might take just done it for hot take that is fairly defensible because it is approaching that tipping point.

Because on your Manny Machado "drop": Do you view him that differently than Rendon? They both seem like high average/15HR/doubles guys with projection for more power. Machado is younger, but Rendon has a more advanced approach that is might take Machado two years to develop. I know Machado has the higher ceiling, but he isn't there yet and I feel like he is a case where is real life value is creeping into fantasy.

May 27, 2014 11:58 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

I'm not exactly sure how to answer that. You basically spelled out the differences between them (ceiling), though no, I don't think his ranking here has anything to do with real life value (Rendon is phenomenal at 3rd as well). If you're asking me who I'd take over the next 3 years, it's probably Rendon by a hair. I do think Machado has more than 15 home run power though and I think it could be substantially more, hence his higher ranking.

May 27, 2014 12:04 PM
 
David Jackson

Poor Mike Moustakas.

May 27, 2014 16:51 PM
rating: 0
 
evo34

There are some serious risk factors around Shelby Miller and Mark Appel, that I don't think are being factored into their rankings fully.

May 27, 2014 21:09 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

This is a helpful comment.

May 28, 2014 05:27 AM
 
evo34

Yours? One of the least helpful I've seen on this site. Might be more "helpful" to your readership if you defend ranking a guy 22nd overall who has regressed significantly over his first 250 IP in MLB -- so much that his own team didn't want him anywhere near the mound last post-season.

I think both players I mentioned have a shot to be solid; I just think that each is significantly overvalued in this list because there is not enough upside to overcome the risk of being a bust.

May 28, 2014 21:13 PM
rating: -2
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

It's hard to defend when you don't point out any of the risk factors but just say that they're there. You left me nothing to defend except to say "we did factor in risk factors" which isn't very helpful.

Miller hit a wall and had a sore shoulder so they didn't pitch him in the playoffs. I don't think that's something to get particularly worked up over, nor do I think it's worthy as a primary reason to dismiss a player of Miller's talent.

I'm not sure we can say this start to the season is "significant regression" more than we can say it's a "small sample size." His strikeouts are down and walks are up, but his hits allowed are about the same and he's been through a bout of bad starts before - where he *looked* awful as well - only to come back as the dominating force he was in the first half of last year.

Both Ben and I believe he can apply the same work ethic he did in adjusting previous to his current situation, and come out of it. It's certainly possible that he won't, but even if he doesn't he can be a useful fantasy asset, hence his ranking.

If you think otherwise, so be it - there's certainly a case to be made for that - but you also haven't yet mentioned one risk factor except to say that "they exist." What are their risks of being a bust? What qualifies as bust to you? Perhaps you're more risk averse than we are (though Appel is rather safe in most eyes), which is fine.

My comment wasn't particularly helpful, to be sure, but the point was that yours brought nothing to the table except you assuming we screwed up by ignoring something. If there's an issue that you're particularly concerned about, either Ben or I would be happy to address our thoughts on that issue and how we weighed it in the overall valuation.

May 28, 2014 21:23 PM
 
evo34

Allow me to spell out the main "risk": getting worse instead of better as your career progresses suggests that your future fantasy earnings are riskier than those of a player on a more traditional, upward trajectory.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10197&position=P&page=1&type=mini

There is no greater red flag than that, yet by ranking him #22, you are essentially ignoring it. And then in your comment, you confirm your dismissal of his struggles by trying to attribute them to a "small sample size," and assuring us that his BABIP is "about the same" this season. I guess we should just ignore the fact that K/BB stabilizes long before BABIP?

The truth is his peripherals have not been good since last July, or 140+ IP ago -- i.e., for more than half of his career. Let's stick to quickly stabilizing stats. The average K%-BB% for an NL starter is ~12%. Here are Miller's last five full months:

July 13: 13.7%
Aug 13: 14.2%
Sep 13: 1.6%
Apr 14: 3.4%
May 14: 6.7% [estimated after tonight's game]

Total K%-BB% since last July (141 IP): 7.5%

How bad is that? Of the 65 NL SPs with 140+ IP across 2013-2014, a grand total of five of them had a K%-BB% worse than 7.5%.

So, yeah, that's implies just a touch more "risk" that I would tolerate in a supposed top 25 U25 fantasy property. The reason I didn't waste time/space with these stats in my original comment is because I think everyone here is already at least reasonably aware of the trend and how long it has been occurring. Maybe you are not. Or maybe you consider 140 IP to be a tiny sample for K and BB rates. I have no idea. Nor am I interested in engaging in any further argument over it. (FWIW, I'm actually rooting for Miller to turn it around).

As you may recall, I simply stated an opinion on two players you ranked, which for some reason triggered a snarky (non-)reply, followed by a depressingly shallow "defense" of your ranking: Small sample (incorrect) + injury (unsubstantiated, at best) + work ethic (no specifics), when mixed with a recently bottom-10-percent K%-BB% pitcher, sprouts the #22 most valuable U25 asset in fantasy baseball.

May 29, 2014 00:20 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

Ah good, more assuming that I'm an idiot. Always the best place to start a conversation.

First and foremost "getting worse" isn't a risk factor. It's a thing that's happened but risk factors tend to be things that affect process. When you detail his K%-BB%, that is an example of a risk factor that I can respond to. When you just assume I ignore an unnamed risk factor, it makes it difficult to address your question.

Second, I'm aware he's been struggling since the second half of last year. It jives with what I said before which was that he hit a wall. You might find that a convenient explanation or dismissal and I'm understanding to that but it's the information that I've been told, and so I'm going with it. I apologize if that's not enough for you.

I, in fact, never mentioned BABIP. I was looking at hits per nine, not the most advanced stat, to be sure but it was in line with last year.

I'm not denying his struggles since July (well, September if you want to be honest since July/August were above average by your standard). I'm saying he hit a wall and has had a bad start, certainly. I am also saying that development isn't linear. Sometimes guys struggle once the book is out on them and need to fail before they adjust. I believe Miller makes that adjustment because he's shown adaptability before.

In terms of work ethic, I figured you knew about his horrible struggles at Triple-A in 2012 during the first half. The second half he rebounded thanks to some adjustments he made and earned a call up. My apologies for assuming you knew that.

As I said before, you might not believe that he does and that's fine. I didn't intend for my reply snarky but leaving an opinion (that was more of a criticism) with no explanation of what you're talking about isn't especially helpful. You could have said "I think you're undervaluing Miller's struggles dating back to last season.

May 29, 2014 05:36 AM
 
Silverback38

What makes the drastic difference to rank Russell and Lindor so far apart?

May 28, 2014 17:18 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

At least on my end - I think Russell can be a plus hit, plus power bat, whereas Lindor is probably something close to a solid average power type.

May 28, 2014 21:24 PM
 
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