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January 24, 2014

Transaction Analysis

The Scars of Garza

by Sam Miller and Alex Kantecki


MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart

Reportedly reached an agreement with RHP Matt Garza for four years, $52 million. [1-23-14]

By ERA, you’d be hard-pressed to find a pitcher more consistent than Matt Garza. Since 2007, when he started 15 times to establish himself in the majors, he has never had an ERA over 3.95; he has only once in those seven years dropped below 3.69. Considering he has switched teams and ballparks (three times), leagues (twice), and arguably even eras in that time, the consistency is—well, it’s not really more impressive for those changes, so much as it’s quirkier. But the point remains: Matt Garza’s a pretty sure thing. So it says an awful lot about pitchers, and about baseball, that even a pretty sure thing gives you a queasy feeling when you start imagining his next four years.

With good reason. Garza has spent time on the DL in each of the past three seasons, with elbow issues (but not elbow surgery) in 2012 and shoulder issues (but not shoulder surgery) in 2013. For that reason, he has thrown only 457 pretty-good innings since 2011. So now let’s go to our favorite trick in these situations: The All Pitchers Like This Guy trick.

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Related Content:  Milwaukee Brewers,  Matt Garza

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