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August 6, 2003

Lies, Damned Lies

Quantum Leap

by Nate Silver

Up until this season, my clearest memory of Jose Guillen is as the object of some very unflattering jeering in the right field bleachers at Wrigley Field. The bleacher bums are never kind to opposing outfielders, but Guillen, being young, bad, and foreign, was a particularly vulnerable target. Guillen reacted to the taunts by alternately appearing hopelessly dejected and demonstratively angry, only making matters worse. Though he got his revenge that day--hitting a home run off crowd-favorite/headcase Turk Wendell--I've always had trouble watching him play without the phrase Jo-se-do-you-suck! running warbled, drunken, Francis Scott Off-Key through my head.

However cruel, the taunting had proved prescient. Back in 1997, Guillen had time and an abundance of raw talent on his side. Bouncing between four organizations and failing to demonstrate any development, Guillen had regressed to the level of benchwarmer; his career .239 EqA entering the season was below replacement level for a corner outfielder. If not for his powerful right arm (an impressive tool, but overrated in its importance) and his much-tarnished Topps All-Rookie Team trophy, Guillen might have been riding shuttles between Louisville and Chattanooga or selling real estate instead of holding down a fourth outfielder job in the bigs.

This season, of course, Guillen has had the last laugh. Easily the most productive hitter on the Reds this year, Guillen filled in admirably for Ken Griffey Jr. Now traded to the A's, he's been charged with the Herculean task of trying to make up for an entire outfield's worth of mediocrity, salvaging Billy Beane's reputation as a deadline dealer nonpareil in the process.

But what if Guillen turns back into a pumpkin? Writes BP reader Gavin Williams:

I was just having an argument with a friend regarding Jose Guillen (I'm a big A's fan by the way). He was saying that no way is a guy with a 6-year 0.702 OPS average going to keep much of his 1.013 OPS season. He thinks Guillen is having a fluke year and expects him to be back to his low 0.700s next year. I believe that Guillen is young enough that his improvements might stick, to some extent.

I guess one way to solve it would be looking at the subset of players who:

(a) Have 4+ years of sub-0.750 OPS who then
(b) Have a season of above-0.950 OPS and looking at
(c) What percentage drops back into the 0.700s, what percentage keeps some of the gains and lands in the 0.800s, and what percentage maintains all of the gains and stays in 0.900s and above. [...]

I would speculate that it would be something like:

20% group 1 (drop back down into 0.700s)
70% group 2 (keep some gains, 0.800s)
10% group 3 (keep all gains, 0.900s)

Care to take on that project!

Best wishes,
Gavin Williams

Glad you asked, Gavin. In the spirit of your suggestion, I ran a search for mid-career "breakout" players who met the following criteria: