CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Arbitration Showdown: ... (02/11)
<< Previous Column
Baseball Prospectus Ne... (09/27)
Next Column >>
Baseball Prospectus Ne... (02/15)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Western Front: Three F... (02/12)

February 11, 2013

Baseball Prospectus News

Now Arriving: PECOTA, Depth Charts, and the PFM

by Colin Wyers and Rob McQuown

Welcome to the initial launch of this year’s PECOTA forecasts. We hope you find them enlightening, useful, and predictive.

Let’s start with the business aspects of things. In order to access the PECOTA forecasts, you need to be a subscriber to Baseball Prospectus. Monthly subscribers will have access to certain PECOTA features but will not have access to downloads like the PECOTA spreadsheets.  The best value we offer is a yearly subscription, which not only gives you access to the full PECOTA product offering, but also unrestricted access to our extensive prospect coverage, R.J. Anderson’s Transaction Analysis, in-depth analysis from the likes of Ben Lindbergh, Sam Miller, and more, and the latest in baseball research from the likes of Russell Carleton and myself. If you feel you can pass on that, we offer our lower-priced Fantasy subscription, which give you full access to the PECOTA products and all fantasy-focused articles on the site.

We’ll also take this opportunity to remind you that the forecasts are a privilege of your subscription, and for your personal use. If you want to tell your friends not to worry about Roy Halladay because his forecast looks much better than his 2012, go for it. But please do not distribute copies of the PECOTA spreadsheet (or the Depth Charts, or the output of the Player Forecast Manager).

Now, to the fun stuff. As always, we’ll remind you that we’re weathermen, not soothsayers—we provide probabilities and best guesses, not tea leaves and the throwing of bones. We absolutely promise that we hold no ill will toward your team just because its forecasts aren’t as rosy as your hopes; we certainly will take no action against your favorite players to force them to perform more in lines with their projections if they seem to be exceeding them.

Our playing time estimates are based on the input of our staff, headed up by Jason Martinez of MLBDepthCharts. Keep in mind that most pitchers and catchers still haven’t reported to camp, and some key free agents, like Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse, haven’t even signed yet. So we will be updating these playing time estimates frequently as teams make roster moves and we see how rosters shape up in spring training. These aren’t etched in stone.

Right now, we’re rolling out the following:

Over the next week or so, we will continue to roll out additional parts of the PECOTA product offering:

  • The preseason version of the Playoff Odds Report,
  • PECOTA projections for the Team Audit pages,
  • The Scoresheet Draft Aid,
  • And the full PECOTA cards, including 10-year forecasts, percentiles, and more.

As always, we haven’t left PECOTA alone between seasons. A full list of changes would be rather long and frankly a little tedious, but one of the things we’re happiest about is greater usage of the 2013 MLB schedule in coming up with these forecasts, particularly the park adjustments (in the past, projections were based on teams’ park factors from the previous season). That’s especially important for a team like the Houston Astros, which has seen its road park mix change drastically as it moves to the American League.

This is always an exciting time of year for us at Baseball Prospectus, partly because it’s the culmination of a winter’s worth of work, and partly because like you, we’re devoted baseball fans who know that PECOTA’s release is a sign that baseball season is just around the corner. From all of us to all of you, thank you so much for your continued support. And now, instead of staring out the window and waiting for spring, you can stare at Excel instead. I hope it makes the waiting a little more bearable for you; I know it does for me.

Downloading PECOTA
Quick notes for first-time subscribers: Once you subscribe, the PECOTA spreadsheet will be available to you at any time as a Digital Download. To access your Digital Downloads, click on "manage your profile":

Then, on that page, simply locate the item entitled "2013 PECOTA Spreadsheet Digital Download". You can look for the green highlighting, which we use to differentiate downloads that have been recently updated:

New versions of the spreadsheet will be available during the spring as rosters shape up, and you can always check back here to see if a new version has been released.

Colin Wyers is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Colin's other articles. You can contact Colin by clicking here
Rob McQuown is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Rob's other articles. You can contact Rob by clicking here

Related Content:  PECOTA,  Projections

103 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

lipitorkid

Is it wrong that I think that baseball season starts with the release of the PECOTA spreadsheets and not Spring Training?

Feb 10, 2013 23:04 PM
rating: 14
 
Roger Thornhill

On player cards, the 2013 projection totals, as well as the WAR projection in the bar graph, are the same as 2012 stats. The playing time forecasts seem correct when broken down by position.

Feb 11, 2013 00:33 AM
rating: 3
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff

Fixed, thanks for the heads-up.

Feb 11, 2013 01:01 AM
 
AndersonAdams1

Happy to see this. Thanks for all your hard work!

Feb 11, 2013 03:23 AM
rating: 4
 
bscheidt

It's like Christmas in July, err, February

Feb 11, 2013 03:52 AM
rating: 3
 
CrashJones

Hey guys..Excited as this is my first PECOTA release.

How do I sort the sheet by teams? or is there instructions built somewhere that I have yet to see. I am just waking up and coffee only begun to brew. So, it's possible I missed it.

Feb 11, 2013 03:55 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

I've seen what can happen when you comment before coffee. ;) Happy first PECOTA Day.

You can manipulate the spreadsheet any way you like. There aren't separate tabs for teams, but you can sort the "Team" column alphabetically to get guys in order. You can also filter that column (in my version of Excel, Data-->Filter) to make players from only certain teams appear.

Feb 11, 2013 04:00 AM
 
CrashJones

Thanks Ben! you got that up pretty quick! :D

before I had my last message posted even.

I am checking it using your advice now.

Thanks again for the quick response, and yes, without my coffee, sometimes things just don't seem to be "all there".

:)

Feb 11, 2013 04:08 AM
rating: 1
 
CrashJones

woah... I just double clicked on a team's Abbreviation... and bam!!! a team's depth charts opened. Sweeeet!

I guess that sort of answers my team sorting question... how do I sort by column etc. or by team on the sheet itself if that is possible?

I'll keep trying to figure it out and let you know if I do.

Awesome guys! Stoked!!!

Feb 11, 2013 04:05 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

There should be a "Sort & Filter" button if you're using Excel (or something similar depending on what version of the program you have). Select a column and click that.

Feb 11, 2013 04:08 AM
 
CrashJones

I am using the [Compatibility mode]Microsoft Excel viewer(that's what it sais at the top). If I click on the letter of the column, the whole column highlights, but if I click on the column header(such as PA), only that header highlights.

I don't see a "sort & filter", I have "copy, find, & go to".

If I go into find, it gives me the options... within(sheet, workbook)/search(rows,columns)/look in(comments, values) and also the options to check mark the boxes of "match by case" or "match entire cell contents".

Feb 11, 2013 04:24 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

Ah, Excel Viewer has more limited options and might not allow you to do that. You could download OpenOffice as an alternative to Excel, or paste the PECOTAs into a Google doc.

Feb 11, 2013 04:30 AM
 
CrashJones

Ok. Gotcha Thanks for your swift guidance Ben. I shall look into this.

Happy PECOTA release day!!!

ps. probably a busy day for you guys I would imagine, even though you guys don't seem to have any trouble keeping busy....especially from now until October. :)

Feb 11, 2013 04:34 AM
rating: 1
 
Grizpin

Happy Day! :)

Feb 11, 2013 05:23 AM
rating: 1
 
Hawktrap

Wow, PECOTA despises RA Dickey.

Feb 11, 2013 06:00 AM
rating: 1
 
thegeneral13

If you think you can sleep with PECOTA's wife and get away with it, think again.

Feb 11, 2013 06:35 AM
rating: 18
 
thegeneral13

Is it bad if the weighted average expected ERA for the top 10 projected innings contributors for your team is 4.95? I think that's bad....

Feb 11, 2013 06:40 AM
rating: 5
 
Chomsky
(103)

Was there ever a postmortem on how PECOTA performed for the 2012 season?

Feb 11, 2013 06:40 AM
rating: 20
 
deeswan

I saw the note on the ballpark adjustments and that prompted a question. Were the Mariners numbers adjusted at all based on the fences being moved or were previous years ballpark numbers used?

Feb 11, 2013 06:49 AM
rating: 4
 
BP staff member Colin Wyers
BP staff

We haven't done anything like that yet. I've done some work on estimating the effect in a macro sense, and it isn't large. Some more work would have to be done to fit it to the sort of component park factors we use in something like PECOTA.

Feb 11, 2013 07:21 AM
 
BirdlandPGH

Awesome! It's so fun to start looking through these.

When will UPSIDE (and particularly, ten-year UPSIDE figures) be available? At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this is simply Baseball Prospectus's most valuable and unique tool available, particularly for those of us interested in prospects. So let's make it available!

Also - there is no batting average category for the hitters on the PFM, but there is for the pitchers. Is that an oversight or intentional?

Thanks!

Feb 11, 2013 07:52 AM
rating: 8
 
BP staff member Colin Wyers
BP staff

I'm seeing batting average for PFM hitters, it's one of the default selections. If you continue to have the difficulty, please contact our customer service with as much detail as possible.

Feb 11, 2013 07:55 AM
 
BirdlandPGH

you're right, sorry about that. I was looking for it next to OBP and SLG. Thanks.

Feb 11, 2013 07:57 AM
rating: 0
 
doog7642

I believe I was told last year that UPSIDE was being retired. I think your praises of it are well-founded, and maybe Nate's ascension to the rank of Omniscient Seer can draw attention to it again!

Feb 11, 2013 10:15 AM
rating: 5
 
gobraves123

Count me as another subscriber who dearly misses UPSIDE.

Feb 11, 2013 13:10 PM
rating: 4
 
BirdlandPGH

why BP would retire UPSIDE is a complete mystery to me. As someone who plays in a 100% keeper fantasy league, where our only draft picks are prospects, UPSIDE (and particularly, the ten-year UPSIDE figures) is the single most valuable tool BP offers to me. Moreover, Nate Silver's quantitative analysis of prospects (which he often explicitly and humbly compared with Baseball America's qualitative analysis) was something only BP, and not a single other publication, offered. But we don't need Mr. Silver to keep this going. The formulas are already there. It's just a matter of releasing the figures.

Feb 11, 2013 13:18 PM
rating: 7
 
bobbygrace

I always look forward to this day. Thanks, guys!

Feb 11, 2013 07:53 AM
rating: 1
 
Matt Commins

Haven't been this excited in a long time!

Feb 11, 2013 07:56 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff

I'd also point out (since we didn't mention it in the post above) that Visual Depth Charts are a part of Depth Charts, and are also live - giving a league-wide view of WARP (or TAv or FRAA or BRR) by position (by team).

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/teams_by_positions.php

Feb 11, 2013 08:14 AM
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

I added a note about this to the article. I enjoy the Visual Depth Charts.

Feb 11, 2013 08:19 AM
 
apilgrim

This is going to kill my work day. Anyway, in a good mood and + ratings for everyone.

Feb 11, 2013 09:00 AM
rating: 5
 
tonyfranco

Grrr, can't access it. The pop-up doesn't recognize my login or password.

Feb 11, 2013 09:08 AM
rating: 0
 
tonyfranco

Nevermind, corrected issue.

Feb 11, 2013 09:10 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dave Pease
BP staff
(2)

Glad to hear it. If anyone else has any trouble accessing anything, please email cs@baseballprospectus.com and we'll get it sorted. Thanks!

Feb 11, 2013 10:09 AM
 
Richard Bergstrom

Silly stupid question. Now that we have all these pitch F/X charts showing hitters hot zones etc, does PECOTA incorporate any of that into their projections and how it relates to the pitchers in the league? For example, does it recalculate projections for hitters in the NL West because Greinke joined the division, etc.

Feb 11, 2013 09:56 AM
rating: 2
 
FastballVelociraptor

Awesome! Strat-o-Matic downloads available today too - let the simulated season begin! Hope those 10-year forecasts get posted soon, love those!

Feb 11, 2013 09:57 AM
rating: 3
 
BP staff member Dave Pease
BP staff
(2)

A quick note on player comments, in response to a few questions we've gotten: the 2013 player comments are written and will be available in the soon-to-be-released Baseball Prospectus 2013 book and e-book. We aren't going to be able to publish these comments on the player cards until after the annual's sales season.

Feb 11, 2013 10:11 AM
 
jashnew

Anybody freaking out right now?

Feb 11, 2013 10:28 AM
rating: 1
 
juiced

Thanks for getting the PECOTA projections up early, love it!

I raced through all the depth charts to find the projections that left me scratching my head, and I came up with 5 "too bearish" and "too bullish" categories (IMHO of course).

PECOTA has love for (IP/ERA)

Beckett 156/3.17
Hanson 156/3.55
Haren 180/3.37
Lincecum 177/3.04
U.Jimenez 165/3.73

I think the common thread here is a veteran group of pitchers with excellent, lengthy performance histories before last year, but I see last year's drops as "real" because of observable major losses in "stuff" or "health".

PECOTA is hating (relative to my expectations) on...

Dickey 224/4.41
Nova 168/4.84
Vogelsong 174/4.00
Miley 174/4.65
Samardjza 195/4.56
(TWINS)

Here, we see the opposite phenomenon at work where these guys dont have lengthy histories of performance excellence yet PECOTA, in my opinion, is missing the boat.

Dickey's age kills him per PECOTA yet he's a knuckleballer so we know the normal rules dont apply. PECOTA has whiffed on Vogelsong for two straight years, I think he has been so outstanding, and with better peripherals than normally acknowledged, that you have to give more weight to the last two seasons than the absence of excellence banked in PECOTA's database during his 20's. He's really a new, unprecedented guy whose "stuff" and repeatable delivery suggest that he can repeat his performance. Miley I dont get, I expect regression too but up to a mid 4 ERA? Dont see how the peripherals from last year justify that unless his minor league numbers before were far weaker. Samardjza is another guy who seemed to have the requisite perhipherals last year, which is more probative to me than his lack of them two years ago. PECOTA disagrees.

All interesting, thanks again for putting these up.

Feb 11, 2013 10:30 AM
rating: 3
 
juiced

Havent looked at the hitters, just the pitchers so far. obviously

Feb 11, 2013 10:31 AM
rating: 0
 
jberkon

This is due to change made to PECOTAs before 2012: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15992

"As a result of its revamped weighting, PECOTA is going to be more bullish on players coming off a bad year and more bearish on players coming off a great year than many other forecasting systems. We’re okay with that. We believe that a full accounting of the historical data supports what we’re doing with PECOTA, and we think a forecasting system with a uniquely accurate outlook is more valuable than one that conforms."

Would be interesting to see how PECOTA fared against these other systems, in 2012, in predicting players whose 2011 was substantially at odds with 2009 and 2010.

Feb 11, 2013 10:39 AM
rating: 7
 
doog7642

I would like to understand how this works in regard to comparable players. Does this mean that the previous season is weighed more heavily in terms of choosing the comparables before projections are created? I would think that would have more integrity than trying to doctor the output based on base comparables.

Feb 11, 2013 13:52 PM
rating: 0
 
edwardarthur

Maybe I'm just a pessimist, but your "bears" strike me as more right on than your bulls (Dickey excepted).

Feb 11, 2013 10:41 AM
rating: 1
 
Richard Bergstrom

I think Dickey's going to be a bit like Ichiro.. just that weird type of player with no real comparables that PECOTA has problems projecting.

Feb 11, 2013 10:43 AM
rating: 1
 
juiced

Did the same thing quickly for hitters not as many stood out to me as head scratchers.

On the "too bullish" side I'd list (obp/slug)

Yasmani Grandal .360/.423 (PEDs and ballpark make it hard for me to think he's gonna be that good that soon)

Mauer .401/.455 (Highest obp I think of all the projections, I love the guy but find it difficult to see given his age and increasing durability concerns that he's gonna outpace all of baseball in obp)

Youkilis .362/463 (Moreso on the obp side at this point)

Perhaps VictorMartinez and Berkman too (.360/423 and 379/476) given , again, my concerns about their perceived skills aging more rapidly than I think PECOTA is building into its projections. Again, less obvious to me than some of the pitching errors.

All just my opinions. On the "too bearish" side there were a LOT more in my view than on the "too bullish" side, maybe I'm just perceiving more leaguewide offense than PECOTA.

Several Angels (Kendrick, Trout, Hamilton), Astros (Wallace, Altuve 311/380?!, JMartinez), Rays (KJohnson 310/388, Escobar 328/352, Joyce 341/441, Jennings 319/381) seem low to me. Pitcher's parks that I'm undercorrecting for?

Also, Kemp 344/487 seems way too low, Bruce .325/480 is consistent with past performance but skills and age/development curve augurs better IMO, Heyward .346/443 seems low for similar reasons, Castro .326/421 same. REddick .295/424. Moustakas .307/434. Granderson 328/466. Crawford .316/399.

Lot of outfielders and/or younger prime guys in my list.

Again, BP thanks for getting out PECOTA early, and I should say that overall I think your system is the best, and I intend to ride it to fantasy glory this year.

Feb 11, 2013 11:17 AM
rating: 0
 
juiced

Team-wise, I think PECOTA is too bullish on the Cubs, Indians, and Yanks, and too bearish on the Giants, Braves, Royals. To a lesser extent too bearish on Jays, Phillies, Rangrs.

Feb 11, 2013 11:43 AM
rating: 0
 
dantroy

Maybe also too optimistic on the Mets and too pessimistic on the Nats?

Feb 11, 2013 12:13 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Colin Wyers
BP staff

The Mets seem to be a real surprise to a lot of people. It's not really that far off where they were last year, and last year as I recall they had some really terrible bullpen performance, which is probably the least stable part of team performance year to year.

The Nats, well... think of it as every team starting from 81 wins, that is to say average. If you look at how teams perform, it's a lot easier to get to 61 wins from there than it is to get to 101 wins. That puts a drag, so to speak, on how high a team's win projection can get. Especially since, in this kind of environment, you kinda have to figure out where to take away wins from other teams to give to the Nats. I think we may start to see a bigger spread in the PECOTA win projections overall as the depth charts start to firm up a bit more, but 88 wins and a comfortable division win isn't shabby at all.

Feb 11, 2013 12:29 PM
 
Richard Bergstrom

How did the Astros moving to the AL affect the expected wins for the AL and NL teams?

Feb 11, 2013 14:11 PM
rating: 1
 
juiced

Dantroy, I agree with you about the Nats. I think they are baseball's best team at this point. The Mets at 80 wins? that's in the ballpark to me, perhaps a little high.

Feb 11, 2013 14:10 PM
rating: 0
 
dantroy

Good calls. I'm higher on Doug Fister than PECOTA is, too.

Feb 11, 2013 11:17 AM
rating: 0
 
juiced

Me too, he just didnt make my "top 5".

Feb 11, 2013 11:19 AM
rating: 0
 
jberkon

As a Mets fan, I'm intrigued by (but very skeptical of) the 80-win prediction.

One question: based on rough calculations, Braves' position players are slated to earn roughly 9 more WAR than Mets' position players (with the pitching relatively equal). If that's the case, why are the Braves only slated to win 2 more games than the Mets (rather than 9 more)?

Feb 11, 2013 10:42 AM
rating: 0
 
dianagram

"PECOTA is my homeboy."

- patent pending

Feb 11, 2013 10:42 AM
rating: 3
 
hankfiddich

I posted on the Rangers depth chart, but bears repeating... Alexi Ogando and PECOTA are in love. Comps of Wainright, Rijo, an Schilling.

Feb 11, 2013 10:43 AM
rating: 0
 
dianagram

Mike Trout's comps, as per PFM: Jason Heyward , Ken Griffey , Justin Upton

Interesting .....

Feb 11, 2013 10:53 AM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

Wouldnt his comps be pretty limited just because you don't run into many outfielders that young?

Feb 11, 2013 11:03 AM
rating: 1
 
jpbaseball

I've noticed that Player Forecast Manager tends to overrate players based on SB's. e.g., Carlos Gomez has a higher $ value than Cliff Lee ($20.96 vs $20.91). My settings are standard 5x5 roto categories, with a 180/80 hitter pitcher split. NL-only, 11 teams. Disposition - moderate, positional adjustment -on. Also ranks Aoki higher than Wright, Rollins higher than Holliday.

Do other people use these prices as a guide or do you do anything to adjust (what I perceive to be) this overly heavy weighting on SB'?

Feb 11, 2013 10:55 AM
rating: 0
 
jberkon

Turn "SGP Level" to "On." It decreases (slightly) the lean toward SB/SV guys. But I've never relied on PFM dollar values to any significant degree, precisely because of this issue.

Feb 11, 2013 11:25 AM
rating: 1
 
philly

A. Robin Yount, Ed Kranepool and Wayne Causey

Q. Who are the three comparables for (almost) every HS hitter from the June draft?

Can someone explain how those hitters end up as essentially the default comps for every 19 yr old quality position player prospect? And given their ubiquity in a process that's supposed to find unique and individual career paths, then is PECOTA implicitly stating that it is impossible to come up with good comps for this type of player?

It'd be nice to have a explicit explanation of what PECOTA seems to be implying.

I've also noticed that very young prospects with slightly more experience or better pedigrees seem to default to the Upton Bros and/or Mickey Mantle quite often.

Feb 11, 2013 10:57 AM
rating: 3
 
BP staff member Colin Wyers
BP staff

We have a very real paucity of comps for very young players. We also do some filtering of the comparables that we list in the PECOTA weighted means spreadsheet -- there's a bias towards recognizable names in the player lists that isn't part of how we figure the aging curves but does show up in the published lists. When you have a shallow pool, there's a lot fewer recognizable names to go around. I'll look and see if we can do some additional tweaking with how we filter the names we use in the comps list.

Feb 11, 2013 12:19 PM
 
Mooser

Fielding Run projections are interesting. The Braves are head and shoulders above everyone on a team level (+22). The next best team is just around +9. Simmons seems to be the reason with a projected +16. I think the next closest is around +6. I am not sure how Pecota projects defence, but this must have a big impact on projected ERA for Braves pitchers.

Feb 11, 2013 12:02 PM
rating: 0
 
Mooser

Also the difference between the best fielding catcher and worst fielding catcher is only around 3 runs. Seems really low even if you ignore the uncertain effects around framing, game calling etc.

Feb 11, 2013 12:06 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Colin Wyers
BP staff

I do want to emphasize that what we're projecting is catcher fielding, not catcher defense -- what I mean by fielding is effects on batted balls, not any effect on baserunning, pitch framing, etc.

Feb 11, 2013 12:09 PM
 
Chomsky
(103)

No postmortem? There was a wan midseason reportcard but nothing more. It would be fairest to all potential full-season subscribers to note PECOTA's recent track record, no? Especially as compared to other projection systems. This kind of accountability used to be de rigueur here; will it continue to be?

Feb 11, 2013 12:41 PM
rating: 8
 
evo34

I agree. Are we to assume that a performance evaluation was done behind the scenes? Wyers said, "A full list of changes would be rather long and frankly a little tedious". I find that to be hard to believe (a few hours of labor would be well worth it). More generally, I cannot understand why PECOTA has become a blacker and blacker box since Silver left. Throw us a bone here. What improvements were made and why?

Feb 11, 2013 13:35 PM
rating: 2
 
Matthew W

Chomsky:

http://razzball.com/fantasy-baseball-projections-review-2012/

Feb 11, 2013 13:37 PM
rating: 6
 
juiced

Yeah, and by this metric PECOTA did very well last year.

Feb 11, 2013 14:17 PM
rating: 2
 
Chomsky
(103)

Except that it was equaled by Steamer, which is free.

Feb 12, 2013 12:38 PM
rating: 1
 
sensij

I'm not sure how you concluded that. The methodology and results are more nuanced than your statement suggests.

Mar 03, 2013 13:16 PM
rating: 0
 
evo34

For pitching, you'd be nuts to use PECOTA over Steamer. Major issues. For a random 2013 example, see: Marmol, Carlos.

Mar 28, 2013 23:29 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff

While I think it's easy to agree that the Marmol projection is overly rosy, I also thought the Peavy projection last year was optimistic, as did almost everyone else.

PECOTA: 3.49 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Steamer: 4.10 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Actual: 3.37 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

I point out Peavy not to suggest that one example proves anything, but rather because I thought the projection was pretty unbelievable last year, yet he out-pitched even that.

Mar 28, 2013 23:52 PM
 
Chomsky
(103)

Thanks for that. I was hoping for some in-house staff postmortem, but this is helpful.

Feb 12, 2013 12:30 PM
rating: 2
 
mrenick

Hosmer's #2 comp is James freakin Loney. That smarts.

Feb 11, 2013 13:38 PM
rating: 4
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff

Version 2 of the spreadsheet is up. None of the numbers have changed, but we removed the batters who were being projected as pitchers (because they'd pitched some in the past).

Feb 11, 2013 15:41 PM
 
TheCookieMonster

I have a question, and I can't tell if it's been answered yet, but is there a reason the PFM spreadsheet only projects like 18 PAs for guys like Alejandro De Aza and Mark Trumbo?

Feb 11, 2013 15:56 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff

Could you please email cs@baseballprospectus.com (or me using the "contact Rob by clicking here" link above) with details on what you're clicking to see this 18 PA problem? I just re-downloaded both the PECOTA spreadsheet and the CSV file from PFM, and both have 644 PA listed for De Aza's projection.

Feb 11, 2013 22:11 PM
 
John Lowe

I love PECOTA, but I am still waiting for Matt Weiters to get somewhere close to his rookie year forecast.

Feb 11, 2013 19:42 PM
rating: 4
 
joepeta

Looks to me like one of the big changes this year is a substantial drop in replacement level. This has resulted in a big increase in WARP -- especially at the hitter level. Neither good nor bad, but it does make YoY comparisons tough.

For example, total BWARP assigned to all hitters in 2012 and 2011: 433 and 414 respectively, or about 14 per team. This year PECOTA doles out 619 BWARP, or roughly 21 per team.

Explanation must be a change in replacement level, no? (btw, this puts 2013 back on par with 2010 in terms of apples-to-apples replacement levels.)

Feb 11, 2013 21:53 PM
rating: 3
 
Mooser

You cant go by the total WARP values until they prorate them to actual projected playing time. There are number of fringe players projected to a minimum of 250 PAs that are going to skew your total WARP.

Feb 12, 2013 06:08 AM
rating: 0
 
joepeta

Valid point, and I have considered this. All players without a team have been filtered out and total MLB PAs, RS etc. all pass a logic test. There appears to be an unmistakable rise in WARP (lowering of replacement value.)

Feb 12, 2013 07:15 AM
rating: 0
 
Drungo

On the PECOTA hates side: the Orioles' bullpen. The big five of Johnson, O'Day, Ayala, Strop, and Patton have a combined career ERA in 1300 innings of 3.13. Last year all five were between 2.40-2.65. PECOTA is projecting them to a 4.13 in 2013. Once you figure in leverage that explains about 3/4ths of the 19-win regression for the team.

I am curious why the system thinks a group of pitchers like this will decline by a full run off their career averages and more than 1.5 runs off last year in one season.

Feb 12, 2013 05:16 AM
rating: 2
 
Matthew W

At least your not freezing, Samardzija, Miley, Harvey, Detwiler, B.Parnell, D.Hernandez...combined for nearly a 3.00 ERA last year, averaging out to 4.25+ this year. I'm doomed! :)
Pecota always hates everybody who did well last year, and loves guys like Nolasco who suck every year. Those new to the system need to just learn to slightly ignore it for pitchers... IMHO
(Although they are great predicting playing time)

Feb 12, 2013 08:42 AM
rating: 0
 
rscharnell

Any idea/approximation when the Scoresheet Draft Aid will be ready? Our Draft starts on Saturday. Thanks.

Feb 12, 2013 07:38 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff

Targeted to roll out next week. Good thing those drafts take so long. We are working on pulling in that date, so stay tuned.

Feb 12, 2013 08:14 AM
 
rosborne
(339)

Thanks for all the projections. Just wondering how often the depth charts will be updated for roster changes (i.e. Bourn). Thanks.

Feb 12, 2013 17:21 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

Should be very regularly. The depth charts have already been updated for Bourn.

Feb 12, 2013 18:49 PM
 
kingsac

First let me say that I greatly enjoy your products. In using the PFM, is there a way to upload a file to quickly update the taken players?

Also, in your product roadmap, is there any plans to connect PFM via API hookups with Yahoo?

Feb 13, 2013 15:20 PM
rating: 0
 
sharkey

I'm not sure where the best place is to ask this question, but it's something I've been wondering about for years:

What's the best way to take bench spots into account in the PFM? Up to now, I've been splitting total bench spots evenly between P and UTIL, to get the total number of roster spots in the league to come out right; is there some other tricky way to handle it, or am I already doing it correctly (whatever "correct" means)?

Feb 17, 2013 14:45 PM
rating: 0
 
NightmareRec0n

I've been fooling around with PFM based on my league that uses R/HR/RBI/OPS/SB-CS on offense and QS/K/ERA/WHIP/NetSaves for Pitching. The results are odd.

It seems to think Adam Dunn warrants a 3rd round pick and that Soriano should be drafted before all starting pitchers.

Why is it hating on starting pitching?

Feb 20, 2013 19:32 PM
rating: 0
 
collierellis

It did the same thing to me in two of my mock drafts. Does anyone have any settings recommendations to avoid the Big Donkey?

Feb 24, 2013 11:37 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff

As far as the DH issue, selecting "DH" for your league requires that the player had 20 (or whatever you select) games at DH. Guys with 20 DH games are rather hard to come by, so Dunn gets a lot of scarcity value. Try running again with "Util" instead of DH?

Feb 24, 2013 11:47 AM
 
collierellis

Hi Rob, I've already got "Util" selected instead of DH, and have experimented with several of the settings (disposition, position adjustment, use inflation, etc.). For some reason Adam Dunn just keeps rising to the top in the third round. I'll just have to compensate with some "Kentucky windage" in my picks until I figure it out. Thanks for the tip though.

Feb 24, 2013 12:42 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff

Ah, true, we just have a very high playing time estimate and the accompanying "counting stats" for him in that hitter's park. Looking at PFM, I don't think the pricing is inappropriate given the projection. I am going to suggest we reduce Dunn's playing time estimate a bit - it may be okay if everything goes right, but the point of the playing time estimates (and why many are lower than people expect) is because it's an expected value, computing in the chances for missed time due to various causes. Dunn's durable, indeed, but everyone misses time sometime.

Feb 24, 2013 12:58 PM
 
evo34

When are long-term forecasts coming out?

Feb 23, 2013 03:57 AM
rating: 2
 
FastballVelociraptor

Waiting patiently for the 10-year forecasts!

Feb 24, 2013 15:18 PM
rating: 1
 
Chomsky
(103)

Waiting patiently for a postmortem!

Feb 28, 2013 07:15 AM
rating: 2
 
evo34

aaaand, still waiting.

Mar 01, 2013 06:58 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Joe Hamrahi
BP staff

We are still testing the 10 year projections. I assure you, we haven't forgotten them. As I said before, we want to put out the best product possible, one that provides the most value. I promise you that we will make a loud enough announcement when the data is available. Thank you for your patience.

Mar 01, 2013 07:52 AM
 
DLegler21

Feb 11th, 2013: "Over the next week or so, we will continue to roll out additional parts of the PECOTA product offering:

The preseason version of the Playoff Odds Report,
PECOTA projections for the Team Audit pages,
The Scoresheet Draft Aid,
And the full PECOTA cards, including 10-year forecasts, percentiles, and more."

Over-promising and under-delivering is officially a pattern. I understand you want to put out a relatively bug-free product; give yourselves a more forgiving window to play with and you'll disappoint fewer customers.

Now I will extend long-term contracts (due today) without the ability to even see what PECOTA's previous 10 year forecasts were...

Mar 01, 2013 08:27 AM
rating: 2
 
GoneTroutFishin

Update on when 10-year forecasts will be released?

Mar 07, 2013 12:55 PM
rating: 0
 
FastballVelociraptor

"The next week or so" has turned into a month - would be great to at least be able to see the old 10-year forecasts.

Mar 11, 2013 14:11 PM
rating: 1
 
FastballVelociraptor

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19910

Mar 18, 2013 09:02 AM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Arbitration Showdown: ... (02/11)
<< Previous Column
Baseball Prospectus Ne... (09/27)
Next Column >>
Baseball Prospectus Ne... (02/15)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Western Front: Three F... (02/12)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article What You Need to Know: June 2, 2015
Premium Article The Call-Up: Manny Banuelos
Fantasy Rounders: Split the Bit
Premium Article Painting the Black: #HugWatch2015: The Hugge...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: They're No Angels
Premium Article Rubbing Mud: The Cole Hamels Decision
Premium Article The Call-Up: Miguel Sano

MORE FROM FEBRUARY 11, 2013
Premium Article Overthinking It: Spring Position Battles, Am...
Premium Article Baseball Therapy: How to Measure Clubhouse C...
Premium Article Bizball: Are the Astros Really Losing Money?
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: All Up Hill From Here?
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Monday, February 11
The Week in Quotes: February 4-10
Fantasy Article The Keeper Reaper: Catcher, Second Base, and...

MORE BY COLIN WYERS
2013-03-28 - BP Announcements: PECOTA Percentiles Are Her...
2013-02-20 - The Socratic Approach to PECOTA
2013-02-15 - BP Announcements: Scoresheet Draft Aid 2013
2013-02-11 - Baseball Prospectus News: Now Arriving: PECO...
2012-08-10 - BP Announcements: Site Bug Fix: Replying to ...
2012-07-05 - Premium Article BP Unfiltered: Visual Year-to-Date Stats
2012-12-26 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Stocking Stuffers and ...
More...

MORE BASEBALL PROSPECTUS NEWS
2013-03-01 - Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing the BP...
2013-02-18 - Baseball Prospectus News: The New Reality fo...
2013-02-15 - Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing the 20...
2013-02-11 - Baseball Prospectus News: Now Arriving: PECO...
2012-09-27 - Baseball Prospectus News: Announcing the PIT...
2012-09-20 - Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing the BP...
2012-09-14 - Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing Pitch ...
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2013-02-25 - Premium Article Overthinking It: PECOTA's Projected Risers
2013-02-18 - Baseball Prospectus News: The New Reality fo...
2013-02-12 - Premium Article Skewed Left: PECOTA's Projected Bests and Wo...