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February 5, 2013

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

Detroit Tigers Top 10 Prospects

State of the Farm: “When I get to the bottom I go back to the top of the slide where I stop and I turn and I go for a ride ‘till I get to the bottom and I see you again.”

Prospect rankings primer

The Top Ten

1. Nick Castellanos
Position: OF/IF
DOB: 03/04/1992
Height/Weight: 6’4’’ 210 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1^st round, 2010 draft, Archbishop McCarthy High School (Southwest Ranches, FL)
2012 Stats: .405/.461/.553 at High-A Lakeland (55 games); .264/.296/.382 at Double-A Erie (79 games)
The Tools: High-6 potential hit; 6 potential power; 6 arm

What Happened in 2012: Castellanos crushed it in High-A, before falling back to earth at the Double-A level, an advanced promotion for such a young player.

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41 comments have been left for this article.

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Eddie Bajek

Good to see Mark was able to finagle his guy Castro onto the back end of this list!

Lots of mention of the Venezuela pipeline in this piece. If that pipeline dries up as a result of the political climate, how screwed are the Tigers?

Feb 05, 2013 03:48 AM

rating: 0

SC

Whatever happens politically in Venezuela seems unlikely to impact the small number of baseball players who find their way into the US. I suppose if there's massive civil unrest it could be unsafe for scouts and organized baseball at the youth level could collapse making talent evaluation challenging, but that's a pretty far fetched scenario given the economic interests seeking to prevent that outcome.

Feb 05, 2013 08:35 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

I disagree. The political and economic climate of Venezuela has already persuaded several teams to vacate their complexes in the region. While high-end talent will find a way to be scouted--either by other teams in the region or in showcases in other locations--any form of diminished focus will result in a form of diminished acquisition.

Feb 05, 2013 08:49 AM

Eddie Bajek

Market inefficiency? The Tigers didn't get heavily involved in Venezuela until 2005 and now are one of four teams left. Now their system is being kept afloat by Venezuela.

Feb 05, 2013 09:23 AM

rating: 1

rrvwmr

Castellanos had 340+ plate appearances at AA to make adjustments. In his last 102 at bats he hit .186 (25% K%). He followed that up in the AFL hitting .240 and striking out at a 28% clip. I have seen as high as 70 futures grades on his hit tool, but I just don't see it.

Feb 05, 2013 04:58 AM

rating: 0

Eddie Bajek

He was 20 in AA in his second full season. If you are going to write him off after 340 plate appearances, go right ahead. But first I'd recommend talking to scouts to see if he was indeed over matched, or just going through the fatigue that guys his age go through this early in their careers.

Feb 05, 2013 06:29 AM

rating: 3

dwinning

I don't know man, if a 20 year old kid doesn't immediately destroy AA, he's probably garbage. Anyone can put up a 1000 OPS in the FSL.

Feb 05, 2013 06:42 AM

rating: 2

DeathSpeculum

he's no addison russell, that's for sure. ;)

Feb 05, 2013 09:30 AM

rating: 1

rrvwmr

Eddie, The first 3 sentences of my comment are pure fact, nothing else. The 70 future grade (Baseball America) is fact as well. You are free to disagree w/ the last 5 words, but I will say your assumption that I am not informed is incorrect. I'd be happy to wager a beer on whether Nick hits over .265 for his career. I'll take the under. Let's revisit this in 3-20 years.

Feb 05, 2013 07:53 AM

rating: 0

Eddie Bajek

Sounds good.

Feb 05, 2013 07:56 AM

rating: 1

rrvwmr

Of the 25 qualified MLB players that hit .300 (admittedly somewhat arbitrary) this year, only 1 struck out more than 23% of the time (Dexter Fowler .300, 24.2 K%), but he did it with a .390 BABIP. None of those 25 players struck out 20% of the time while in AA. There will certainly be examples that disprove this, but the distribution is not favorable.

Feb 05, 2013 08:51 AM

rating: 1

Jason Parks

BP staff

Scouting by numbers is not a good way of grading a hit tool. He's tot a finished product. He has a long way to go to reach his potential. But the necessary characteristics are there.

Feb 05, 2013 08:04 AM

dwinning

It's not a good system, but not bad considering the Tigers haven't actually had a pick in the first round of the draft since 2009.

Feb 05, 2013 06:40 AM

rating: 2

jedjethro

Jason, what are your thoughts on pitcher Adam Wilk, who signed on to play in Korea this season?

Feb 05, 2013 06:40 AM

rating: 0

champaigncaviar

Well, the Tigers sold him to Korea. That should probably give you a clue as to his (lack of) MLB potential.

Feb 05, 2013 22:57 PM

rating: 1

Mark Anderson

BP staff

Wilk is the very definition of a soft-tossing left. He scrapes 90 mph with his fastball, has a solid-average change-up that is a decent second pitch. His breaking ball lacks snap and that really hurts his profile. He lacks the stuff to work through a lineup multiple times and his lack of a quality breaker keeps him from profiling as a left-on-left reliever. He was an up-and-down guy for me prior to his departure.

Feb 07, 2013 13:47 PM

cdgarosi

265 (listed). Maybe on the moon.

Feb 05, 2013 07:24 AM

rating: 5

Deech

Tyler Collins might be all bat, but his K/BB combination is elite (10.7% BB and 11.8 K%) and he has raw BP power. 5 of his 7 home runs came in the second half while keeping his rate stats. Just 22 starting the year at AA, I think he's a big oversight on this list.

Feb 05, 2013 08:00 AM

rating: 1

Deech

also, 2012 was his first season at pro and he was assigned straight to A+ where he was 21/22 and had a 129 OPS+, bat seems legit (at least MLB average), potentially more if he taps into power

Feb 05, 2013 08:02 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

We had a role 4 evaluation on him.

Feb 05, 2013 08:05 AM

DetroitDale

So, is the deficiency in the system largely because of the aforemented picks lost as free agent compensation, prospects traded for players and emphasis on drafting college players sufficient explanation for the system's low rankings or are there deficiencies with the scouting or coaching? If so which ones?

This system was devasted during the Monaghan/Randy Smith era and was rebuilt by drafting a lot of hard to sign guys who fell and offered more than slot. Now that that maneuver is no longer available, is it possible to rebuild the system before it's needed to replace a large number of guys on the main club?

Feb 05, 2013 08:57 AM

rating: 0

andrews

Isn't a big reason that the Tigers haven't traded a high value player for prosects for a long time?

Feb 05, 2013 09:18 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Losing picks is certainly an issue, but talent doesn't cease to exist beyond the first round of the draft. Approach is certainly a culprit as well; the Tigers of recent years have been heavy on the college talent at the expense of high-ceiling/high-risk high school talent. Scouts are tasked with identifying the talent, but the front office pulls the string on the deal. On the developmental front, you can't turn a low-ceiling college player into a high-ceiling talent through the magic of instruction. While some orgs are better than others, player development starts with talent.

Feb 05, 2013 09:20 AM

Eddie Bajek

So the players who would still be on this list if not traded are... Rob Brantly, Jacob Turner, Brian Flynn, and Francisco Martinez. Add them and the list is better, still bad, but better and deeper.

Feb 05, 2013 09:33 AM

rating: 0

andrews

Agreed and hypothetically imagine if the Tigers had traded verlander or Scherzer for prospects last July the list would be better still.
As they're a perenial contender in a weak division they've been sapped rather than boosted by their trading activity.

Feb 05, 2013 09:38 AM

rating: 0

sgrcuts

This is one of the most meaningless points I've ever read. Imagine if they traded Verlander? Contending has not stopped the Rays, Rangers, Cardinals and so on from developing a system. Imagine the Yanks traded Cano or CC! Totally meaningless.

Feb 05, 2013 12:10 PM

rating: 0

sandriola

Do you feel we'll see a change in draft strategy as the core of the major league roster ages? Will they resist the urge to take the large, right-handed power pitchers and instead focus on overall talent to rebuild the system?

Feb 05, 2013 10:08 AM

rating: 0

BayCityM

As a Tigers fan, I hope so!

Feb 05, 2013 10:49 AM

rating: 0

DetroitDale

If anything, I would think an aging core would increase the urge to draft quick developing college kids over the high ceiling high schoolers who need more development time. If they are too impatient now for raw prospects holes in the main team aren't going to enhance patience. The entire team is focused on winning now to the exclusion of any future considerations. This will be a problem when the pizza money dries up.

Feb 05, 2013 19:50 PM

rating: 0

sandriola

But the addition of talent doesn't have to be high-ceiling high schoolers, either. They took a high school kid last year with their first pick. It's just that a lot of the picks seem to be the hard throwing righties that DD and David Chadd love. They need more diversification with their top draft picks, especially those in the first round.

Also, they haven't had a first round pick since 2009, when they selected Jacob Turner with the 9th pick. Yes, they could have a better development record, but they need to be able to have the chance to pick the better talent. Hopefully their decision to avoid Soriano this year was partially driven by the potential loss of their first round pick.

I agree that the team has been extremely focused on winning at the major league level, probably to a fault. However, I think it's also too early to look too far ahead at what may come from the farm system. I feel confident that players will be moved as needed to ensure a competitive product in Detroit, which is really the ultimate goal of the organization (at least this one).

Feb 05, 2013 20:09 PM

rating: 0

dwinning

"winning at the major league level" is the ONLY THING THAT MATTERS.

Feb 06, 2013 05:44 AM

rating: 3

DetroitDale

That's true as far as it goes, however a solid farm system that produces good players on a regular basis is an essential part of of winning at the major league level. The team cannot continue buying up free agents at every position. Eventually arbitration and free agency will make this team too expensive to keep together and when it does they will need more than they have in the minors. For now ilitch is willing to subsidize with pizza money, but that will not last forever.

Feb 07, 2013 13:35 PM

rating: 0

DetroitDale

Valid points re high school v. College. I seized on that because Jason stressed that as a main cause of the system's lower ranking. I'm tend to disagree that drafting an excess of arms is a bad strategy. Its much easier to trade surplus pitchers for hitters than vice versa (the 90s Indians tried it that way and didn't get as far despite a higher number of guys panning out). The only reason it didn't work better here is a lot of guys got hurt, a lot didn't pan out and a lot of guys never got drafted beacause of lost picks. These factors would have doomed a balanced approach just as surely, perhaps even moreso

Feb 07, 2013 13:49 PM

rating: 0

BayCityM

It will be interesting to see what they do if they ever get a first round draft pick again.

Feb 05, 2013 10:50 AM

rating: 1

gweedoh565

FYI on the Top 10 Prospects index page (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/), Avisail Garcia is listed as the Tigers #1 prospect (as opposed to Castellanos here)

Feb 05, 2013 12:59 PM

rating: 0

juiced

When your best pitching prospect projects as a set up guy that's a weak system.

Feb 05, 2013 19:03 PM

rating: 0

DarinRuf18

whats the most significant difference between Rondon and Kimbrel when he was in the minors. Was there a similar fear that Kimbrel wouldnt be able to throw enough strikes to excel as a closer?

Feb 06, 2013 09:08 AM

rating: 0

Mark Anderson

BP staff

There was that fear. The biggest difference for me is the quality of the slider. Kimbrel's slider was fantastic; Rondon's inconsistent, though it flashes in the above-average to plus range on occasion.

Feb 07, 2013 13:48 PM

hyprvypr

Garcia almost seems to be a monster in the making. Potentially four plus tools, two of them maybe plus-plus on a huge bodied/strong kid who's athletic and hitting in the high majors at 21 years old. I understand there's a big difference between raw power and game power, but if he can translate most of his raw power into game power and still hit .270+, isn't this an all-star calibur player?

Sorry Jason, I don't mean to be critisizing, but at my novice glance, it just looks like a potential explosion to me.

Feb 06, 2013 09:56 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

I think there are too many doubts about the power to find comfort in an all-star ceiling. His approach could be a problem, and based on the characteristics of the swing coupled with that approach, the huge raw power might remain at rest at the highest level. Wide range of opinion on this kid. Some see a first-division talent while others don't even see a major league regular (because of approach/utility). I'm very curious to see what happens in '13. I'd love to see him blossom into more than I gave him credit for.

Feb 06, 2013 10:12 AM

hyprvypr

Thanks Jason for the explanation. I think I understand now it's a bit of a Bubba Starling 2012 situation(poor man's version) where scouts need to see more of the tools/approach before they're ready to slap the star in the making label. That is to say he has very large upside but also potentially 'doesn't get it'/4A characteristics as well and may never be more than a support piece. Elite potential maybe if everything clicks...

Feb 06, 2013 10:49 AM

rating: 0

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<< Previous Article

Arbitration Showdown: ... (02/05)

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Prospects Will Break Y... (02/01)

Next Column >>

Prospects Will Break Y... (02/08)

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Fantasy Beat: Comparin... (02/06)

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