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December 3, 2012

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

Kansas City Royals Top 10 Prospects

State of the Farm: “I told a girl that my prospects were good and she said baby, ‘It's understood.’”

Prospect rankings primer

The Top Ten

1. Wil Myers
Position: OF
DOB: 12/10/1990
Height/Weight: 6’3’’ 205 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 3^rd round, 2009 draft, Wesleyan Christian Academy (High Point, NC)
2012 Stats: .343/.414/.731 at Double-A Northwest Arkansas (35 games); .304/.378/.554 at Triple Omaha (99 games)
The Tools: Plus hit/power; plus arm

What Happened in 2012: As it turns out, a healthy Myers is a monster Myers, as the 21-year-old put all questions from the 2011 season to rest by mashing at two levels and emerging as a top-10 prospect in baseball.

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55 comments have been left for this article.

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DarinRuf18

I've seen a wide range of scouting reports on Starling this year, mainly in terms of his hit tool. Some have gone so far as to call his swing terrible, and dont seem optimistic about his projection at all. I do think everyone recognizes his insane upside, but what makes you rank him #3? And what do you believe will eventually happen with him? Is he Elijah Dukes 2.0 or closer to BJ Upton? Drew Stubbs? Thanks in advance. Great work once again.

Dec 03, 2012 05:55 AM

rating: 1

dwinning

Dukes's hit tool was never the problem.

Dec 03, 2012 07:47 AM

rating: 1

gdragon1977

Well I suppose it was a problem for his girlfriends...

Dec 03, 2012 09:08 AM

rating: 25

DarinRuf18

he was a career .242 hitter?

Dec 04, 2012 07:25 AM

rating: -2

Behemoth

Whoosh.

Dec 04, 2012 08:20 AM

rating: 1

DeathSpeculum

interesting. more offensive future potential - myers or hosmer? both about a 6 (plus) in terms or power and the hit tool?

Dec 03, 2012 06:58 AM

rating: 0

DeathSpeculum

err, "of power and the hit tool" not "or"

Dec 03, 2012 06:59 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Hosmer

Dec 03, 2012 09:57 AM

kcshankd

What a bunch of studs. Insert uncomfortable Parksian sexual reference here.

Very excited to see I share a birthday with Kyle Zimmer - and HOFers Larry Doby and Ferguson Jenkins. 12/13 Baby!

Where did Mondesi come up with Kevin Mench's hat? What is that, a size 9?

Dec 03, 2012 07:04 AM

rating: 0

Jason Wojciechowski

BP staff

That last question is on-point. I do hope we can get to the bottom of this.

Dec 03, 2012 08:47 AM

Hudson Belinsky

BP staff

Looking into this now.

Dec 03, 2012 09:00 AM

rrvwmr

Has Odorizzi's stock fallen in the last year? He started slow in his initial run at AA in 2011, then reclaimed strong ratios early in 2012 at that level. He saw a similar decline in his initial stint in AAA in 2012. He seems like a guy that adapts pretty well. Where do you see his K/9 stabilizing at the MLB level?

Dec 03, 2012 07:22 AM

rating: 0

bheikoop

The under 25 list has got to be the most surprising thing in my opinion. I'm interested to know what you expect out of Perez and why Moustakas ranks ahead of Myers. In fact, on a tools comparison, I would think Perez would line up against almost any Royal hitter, especially with the defensive reports. He may not have the power, but his pure hit tool has to be at, or above anyone else in the system.

Dec 03, 2012 07:25 AM

rating: 2

timber

So, as a prospect, Zimmer rates ahead of Starling, but, as an under-25 talent, Starling rates ahead of Zimmer? I guess I can understand the thinking, but would you please explain?

Dec 03, 2012 07:27 AM

rating: 0

Hudson Belinsky

BP staff

There's a smaller emphasis on risk when we're talking about talent alone. I'd take Starling if we're leaving out the fact that he's miles away from tool maturation.

Dec 03, 2012 07:51 AM

timber

That's about what I figured. Thanks.

Dec 03, 2012 08:07 AM

rating: 0

Hudson Belinsky

BP staff

First off, this is a special group, and variations of the U25 list can and have been argued for. Moustakas' overall tool package excites me more than Myers' does. If Moose refines his tools he could be fantastic defender at the hot corner with 35 bombs per season.

Perez is a tough guy to peg. If he continues to hit like he has at the big league level thus he'll be a perennial all-star. But there's a good argument for every player being ahead of him.

-Mondesi could be a plus defender at SS with a plus hit tool and bag-swiping ability.
-Zimmer could be a #2 starter.
-Starling could break baseball with his tools. If he maximizes his tools, he's going to be one of the most exciting players in baseball.
-Myers can do it all and he plays up the middle.
-Moose has elite power and a laser arm.
-Hosmer is a legend. Insane offensive upside.

I love Perez for his defense alone. If the bat turns out to be better than average he could be special, but I'm not so sure yet.

Dec 03, 2012 07:46 AM

bheikoop

Great explanation, thanks a lot.

Dec 03, 2012 08:05 AM

rating: 0

Richard Bergstrom

It may be a special group, but you have a special group of busts too. Even the prospects who have made it through the majors have had quite a few warts on them. How does a guy like Gordon, who was supposed to be the next George Brett, forget to hit for a few years? Where did Hosmer's and Moustakas' bats go? etc. Sure, you expect some prospects to fail, but so many?

Don't even get me started on the Royals pitching prospects either...

Dec 03, 2012 11:10 AM

rating: 0

timber

It's a bit early to put the "bust" label on Hosmer and Moustakas. As for Gordon, he didn't "forget to hit" for a few years. Scouts knew he has a huge hole in his swing that major league pitching would exploit. Until he demonstrated a willingness to change his swing to eliminate that hole, hitting, especially for average, was going to be a problem for him.

Dec 03, 2012 13:35 PM

rating: 0

Richard Bergstrom

Scouts appear to know that Bubba Starling has problems with his hit tool too. Shouldn't that temper his expectations? I mean, no one ever has a perfect swing or approach, but some are better than others and I imagine it's hard to go from "swing can get long and loose; struggles with pitch recognition; fastball swing; soft and spinning can beat him; " to "Overall Future Reality: 7; extreme"

Dec 03, 2012 16:17 PM

rating: -1

Behemoth

Presumably that's why the current problems with the hit tool are repeatedly pointed out, but the potential is there for a ridiculously good player if these issues can be resolved - thus the high OFP combined with the extreme risk.

Dec 04, 2012 02:10 AM

rating: 2

modofacid

Wait, so risk isn't considered when you rank top talents under 25? Perez isn't risk free but can you really say with a straight face that if given the choice you would pick Mondesi/Zimmer/Starling/Myers over Perez. Who looks at worst like a MLB average starting catcher and could be a perennial all star?

Dec 03, 2012 19:19 PM

rating: 3

Behemoth

I would take Myers over Perez. I don't know if I would take Zimmer over Perez. I wouldn't take the other two.

Dec 04, 2012 02:11 AM

rating: 0

Hudson Belinsky

BP staff

RIsk is considered minimally, but this list is mostly about talent.

Yes, I can say with a straight face that I'd pick those players ahead of Perez for a talent list. Read Jason's reports on those gentlemen; it's not a knock on Perez at all.

I love Perez and I wouldn't blink if you told me in a decade that he turned out to be a stud, but I also wouldn't blink if you told me the same about anyone ahead of him.

I respect this group's opinions. Given all the information I have to go on, this is how I chose to rank these players. There was a lot of thought put into this, and I'm sticking by those thoughts.

Dec 04, 2012 07:58 AM

modofacid

Going by straight upside. I see where you are coming from. Still puzzling to essentially skip risk. But hey, it's YOUR platform, not mine. Thanks for the explanation.

Dec 04, 2012 09:29 AM

rating: 1

Richard Bergstrom

Sometimes I just think the potential should be tempered a bit.

Let's say you have a player who can hit, can take a walk, and doesn't strike out much but hasn't learned how to hit for power. Maybe, right now, he's done .300/.360/.440 after a year of A. If he learns to hit for power and maintains everythng else, he could be a .850-.900 OPS player in the mjaors.

Let's say you have another player with amazing tools, the potential to hit 50 HR, great body and all that jazz... drafted in the first round but scouts still question his hit tool and he hasn't played full season ball yet. Sure, he can learn to be a .900-.950 OPS player but he has a heck of a lot more to learn and prove before he gets there.

I still think, in that kind of case, the first player should be rated higher. It's one things to have potential to do a lot of things, but there should be a lot of credit for what's already been accomplished.

Dec 04, 2012 11:26 AM

rating: -1

amazin_mess

Professor,

If you were running the Royals, would you offer Starling to the Mets for RA Dickey?

Dec 03, 2012 07:53 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Hell no.

Dec 03, 2012 09:58 AM

modofacid

Sal Perez at #7 on the top 10 under 25 list is puzzling. Health concern?

Dec 03, 2012 07:54 AM

rating: 1

bheikoop

Read the above explanation to my question. It's not an insult towards Perez so much as a compliment towards the system in general.

Dec 03, 2012 08:06 AM

rating: 1

Hudson Belinsky

BP staff

+1

Dec 03, 2012 08:10 AM

bheikoop

Myers' potential as a 6 surprises me.

Dec 03, 2012 08:17 AM

rating: 0

jmoultz

Surprises you as too high or too low?

Dec 03, 2012 09:29 AM

rating: 0

jpaternostro

It's hard out there for a corner guy. Still, a basically major-league-ready 6 is nothing to scoff at.

Dec 03, 2012 09:31 AM

rating: 1

JoshC77

Me too....the way other people talk about him, you'd think that he was a 9 prospect or something :)

Reading through the analysis, it does make sense though. And as jpaternostro commented, a major-league ready 6 is nothing to scoff at....

Dec 03, 2012 10:23 AM

rating: 1

RFKRFK

What OFP number would Kelvin Herrera get?

Dec 03, 2012 08:44 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Probably a 5

Dec 03, 2012 10:15 AM

Jason Parks

BP staff

But maybe a 6. Stuff is worthy of a 6.

Dec 03, 2012 10:16 AM

jalee121

Jason, I know you discussed this on the podcast (RIP) but it is slipping my mind. What is the difference between control and command (as you stated with Kyle Zimmer)?

Dec 03, 2012 10:10 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Control is the ability to throw stikes. Command is the ability to throw quality strikes (or balls; hitting spots outside of the zone is equally important).

Dec 03, 2012 10:14 AM

Paul Sporer

BP staff

Control is simply placing the ball in the zone. You'll see this manifest itself in someone with a low walk rate, but a home run issue. They can pound the zone, but too hittable. Command is placing the ball where you want within the zone over and over again so as to avoid both walks and home runs. Quick & dirty explanation, but I think that gets to the point. Jason will correct me if I'm way off.

Dec 03, 2012 10:18 AM

Paul Sporer

BP staff

Not only did he beat me to it by posting as I was typing, but his explanation is more concise & better. I hate my life.

Dec 03, 2012 10:19 AM

hyprvypr

In what seems like a perfect marrige of young teams that need eachother's strengths, Jason, doesn't it just sound like the M's and Royals need to get together to do something like a Paxton+Hultzen(Or T.Walker?) for Myers trade?

Trade rumors keep coming up including older pitchers(Dickey?? lol), and I don't understand that at all given the Royals clear peak time horizon of 2014-2017.

Dec 03, 2012 10:42 AM

rating: 0

Richard Bergstrom

Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

You're assuming the Mariners and Royals want to win...

Dec 03, 2012 11:34 AM

rating: -5

Nathan

You're assuming teams need balance to win. Sam Miller debunked this pretty hard a few days ago. There are no bonus points for balance.

Dec 18, 2012 08:02 AM

rating: 0

hinnenra

Not a knock, but I was surprised Orlando Calixte did not make one of the last couple spots on this list. Scouts seem to really like his D at SS, and the bat has a fair amount of pop for a middle of the diamond guy. I came away really impressed from the 3 looks I had at him at Kane County this year.

Dec 03, 2012 13:19 PM

rating: 0

Pat Folz

Could you clarify the comment on Cheslor Cuthbert's makeup, or makeup in general? In the "Explanation of Risk" he's specifically commended for good makeup, but there are also comments on lost focus and poor conditioning. I thought makeup was, well, basically the opposite of those things -- being very dedicated to baseball and always working to improve. I don't mean to knock Mr. Cuthbert specifically, I can't imagine how difficult the professional/cultural adjustment is, but the makeup comment seems incongruous with some of the assessments of his weaknesses?

Dec 03, 2012 13:21 PM

rating: 2

Jason Parks

BP staff

Cuthbert has good makeup; outside sources and team officials will comment on it. But he did have a setback season where he struggled on and off the field. It happens. He's very young and playing at an advanced professional level. But his quality make up should allow him to overcome these setbacks. I think there is a difference between maturity and makeup.

Dec 04, 2012 08:04 AM

kc1fan8569

Kevin Goldstein who? Great Job Jason and Staff. Jason you were down on Cuthbert over the summer, but now he is still ranked in the top 10. Is that more of a looking back and your reactions over the summer were overreactions or is it more the promise and tools are still there and it was more of the frustration at high A. Where Moose and Hosmer both sucked it up there too. Wilmington where bats go to die!!!

Dec 03, 2012 13:43 PM

rating: 1

Jason Parks

BP staff

It's a tough place to play. Cuthbert wasn't very good in 2012, but his potential is still legitimate and worth acknowledgment.

Dec 04, 2012 08:05 AM

kc1fan8569

Thanks for the reply.. the only thing missing is a PODCAST discussing the Royals Top 10 List... I do miss up and in...

Dec 04, 2012 09:51 AM

rating: 2

BayCityM

It really did makes these lists that much more fun.

RIP U&I

Dec 04, 2012 20:15 PM

rating: 0

kc1fan8569

a Moment of Silence for U&I!!!

Dec 05, 2012 08:23 AM

rating: 0

cavsonics

Thoughts on Giavotella? He rose on the strength of his bat, but hasn't hit in two ML trials while his glove has improved at least modestly. Can he finally put both pieces together long enough to overtake Getz, or will 2013 hold more of the same (platooning, demotion risk)?

Dec 06, 2012 11:43 AM

rating: 0

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<< Previous Article
108 Stitches: Pulling ... (12/03)

<< Previous Column
Prospects Will Break Y... (11/29)

Next Column >>

Prospects Will Break Y... (12/10)

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Transaction Analysis: ... (12/04)

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