BP Comment Quick Links
![]() |
|
|
The First-ever Baseball Prospectus Futures Guide - now just $7.00 at Amazon ( bbp.cx/fg ) |
|
|
October 16, 2012 Out of Left FieldTrading A-Rod: How, Where, and WhyBefore Derek Jeter fractured his ankle on Saturday, talk of the Yankees centered on Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez is in a horrible slump and, unless he has a spectacular turnaround this month, baseball writers, fans and unnamed sources will spend the winter speculating about whether the Yankees will trade him. That, however, would be incredible. You see, the Yankees owe Rodriguez $126 million over the next five years*. Also, he has a no-trade clause. So, like swallowing a whole bunch of diamonds, trading A-Rod would be difficult, painful, and insanely expensive. *This includes two reasonably reachable $6 million bonuses for home runs no. 660 and no. 714. It does not include three other $6 million bonuses for home runs no. 755, 762 and 763. However, this is the season for difficult, painful, and insanely expensive trades, what with Boston dumping a quarter-billion dollars on the Dodgers. That deal required the waiving of two no-trade clauses, commissioner approval, six players passing through waivers, and another two being turned into PTBNLs to skirt the waiver rules. If ever a trade looked impossible, it was that one. Compared to that, dealing A-Rod during the offseason should be like eating just one or two smaller diamonds, right? Maybe, but we can’t really address that until we understand why New York might want to get rid of him. To start, Rodriguez’s horrible slump happens to coincide with the playoffs, giving more ammunition to the New York tabloids and those Yankee fans who already see him as un-clutch and don’t mind screaming it from the rooftops. Those people need more ammunition like the natives did at Little Big Horn*, but more ammo is exactly what A-Rod is giving them each time he comes to bat. * Wow, how’s that for a topical reference? Of course no player is as bad as he looks when he’s striking out and A-Rod is no exception. That isn’t to say he’s hasn’t looked bad though. He’s struck out in 12 of 25 plate appearances, which, if you’ve seen him, probably surprises you in a good way. Which is bad.
|
The Yankees (and the Angels will eventually) deserve all the trouble they will get from signing an aging "superstar" to a double digit year / triple digit sum contract.
Other contracts worth considering:
- Ryan Howard: $125M for 2012 (age 32) to 2016 (age 36) on a National League team that is forced to put him in the field.
- Carl Crawford: $142M for 2011 (age 29) to 2017 (age 35). Generated +0.4 bWAR in 161 games total in the first two years.
- Vernon Wells: $126M for 2008 (age 29) to 2014 (age 35). Generated -0.3 bWAR in 208 games in 2011 and 2012.
A good topic for an article might "What was the largest contract ever signed that went well, as seen from the end of the contract?"
Derek Jeter? ($189M for 2001-2010, +39 bWAR)
Carlos Beltran? ($119M for 2005-2011, +31 bWAR)
Chipper Jones? ($90M for 2001-2006, +26 bWAR)
Rodriguez's first big deal ended well. Pujols' first one too. But they signed young.