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September 11, 2012

Value Picks

First, Third, and DH for 9/11/12

by Michael Street

The Value Picks crew had a fine week, hitting five homers, scoring 10 runs, and driving in 15 more. That’s a good thing, since the latest round of call-ups only brought one corner infielder likely to deliver fantasy value. That, however, doesn’t mean there’s nobody to be found on your waiver wire: almost all of my VPs are available in 80 percent of fantasy leagues.

Departures
The ankle injury of Kevin Frandsen (Yahoo! 1%, ESPN 1%, CBS 3%) turned out to be a stress fracture, the latest blow to the Phillies hot corner now that Placido Polanco is back on the disabled list. Frandsen can play as long as his pain tolerance permits, but that won’t be very often and may not be very well, so we’ll leave him to lick his wounds and turn to another NL-only VP.

Two things that bring fantasy value are playing time and production, but Luke Scott (Yahoo! 8%, ESPN 9%, CBS 16%) hasn’t given us much of either. Even though Carlos Pena has been playing less, it’s Jeff Keppinger who’s been playing more at first base for the Rays. In just three September starts, Scott has picked up one hit—a home run—in 10 plate appearances. The home run is nice, but until Scott brings more value, he doesn’t deserve the label of Value Pick.

Arrivals
Josh Donaldson (Yahoo! 15%, ESPN 13%, CBS 19%) has been red-hot since returning from Triple-A, hitting .315/.384/.607 in 99 plate appearances, including six home runs and eight doubles. Building on his .335/.402/.598 triple-slash at Triple-A this season, Donaldson has improved mightily on the weak numbers he put up at the major league level to begin the year. After Scott Sizemore went down, Donaldson could only manage a .153/.160/.235 line in 100 plate appearances before getting demoted in early June. In that earlier stint, he struck out 26 times and walked just once, leading to a very simple calculation of a 26 percent K% and a 1 percent BB%. Add to this a .194 BABIP, and you can see why Oakland decided to turn to Brandon Inge instead.

This time around, Donaldson faces no competition from Inge, whose season is finished, and he has also improved his plate approach, striking out half as often (13 times) while walking eight times. This has led to a .314 BABIP and far greater success, dragging that earlier weak triple-slash line to its current .230/.271/.412 level. The .246 TAv that production represents lies between Donaldson’s 40th and 50th PECOTA projection, meaning there’s still some room for improvement. Donaldson’s OPS won’t keep pushing 1000, but he’s definitely better than he was earlier this season, and his additional catcher qualification makes him a great addition to your roster. 

Incumbents
Brett Wallace (Yahoo! 2%, ESPN 0%, CBS 10%) clubbed his seventh home run of the season (a three-run jack) just as last week’s column went to press, and he followed that up with five more hits last week, though only one went for extra bases. His high strikeout rates remain a concern, but he’s hitting the ball hard—he had a whopping 34 percent line drive rate in August—so he should keep his batting average high nevertheless.