Biographical

Portrait of Casey Kotchman

Casey Kotchman 1BMarlins

Marlins Player Cards | Marlins Team Audit | Marlins Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 31)
PA AVG HR R RBI SB TAv WARP
250 .250 3 24 22 1 .255 0.0
Birth Date2-22-1983
Height6' 3"
Weight220 lbs
Age31 years, 7 months, 29 days
BatsL
ThrowsL
-2.42010
1.92011
-0.92012
-0.62013
0.02014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR TB BB SO HBP SF SH RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2004 ANA 21 38 128 116 7 26 6 0 0 32 7 11 4 1 0 15 3 0 .224 .289 .276 .195 -8.1 -2.1 -1.0
2005 ANA 22 47 143 126 16 35 5 0 7 61 15 18 0 1 1 22 1 1 .278 .352 .484 .293 6.7 -0.6 0.6
2006 ANA 23 29 88 79 6 12 2 0 1 17 7 13 0 0 2 6 0 1 .152 .221 .215 .178 -7.9 -0.3 -0.8
2007 ANA 24 137 508 443 64 131 37 3 11 207 53 43 4 5 3 68 2 4 .296 .372 .467 .284 13.3 4.1 1.7
2008 ANA 25 100 398 373 47 107 24 0 12 167 18 23 5 2 0 54 2 1 .287 .327 .448 .263 1.9 3.9 0.6
2008 ATL 25 43 175 152 18 36 4 1 2 48 18 16 4 1 0 20 0 0 .237 .331 .316 .233 -4.7 -4.1 -0.9
2009 ATL 26 87 336 298 28 84 20 0 6 122 32 28 3 3 0 41 0 0 .282 .354 .409 .272 7.8 -0.4 0.7
2009 BOS 26 39 95 87 9 19 3 0 1 25 7 14 1 0 0 7 1 0 .218 .284 .287 .214 -4.0 1.7 -0.2
2010 SEA 27 125 457 414 37 90 20 1 9 139 35 57 3 5 0 51 0 0 .217 .280 .336 .216 -20.0 -3.0 -2.4
2011 TBA 28 146 563 500 44 153 24 2 10 211 48 66 12 3 0 48 2 2 .306 .378 .422 .296 20.3 -2.2 1.9
2012 CLE 29 142 500 463 46 106 12 0 12 154 26 49 7 1 3 55 3 0 .229 .280 .333 .221 -16.9 8.8 -0.9
2013 MIA 30 6 21 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .048 .000 .020 -5.3 -0.0 -0.6
Career93934123071322799157771118326733943229388149.260.326.385.252-16.85.9-1.2

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G PA TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP BPF BRAA repLVL POS_ADJ FRAA BRR BVORP BWARP VORP WARP
2001 PRO Rk 7 24 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .500 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2002 CDR A 81 347 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .308 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2003 RCU A+ 57 245 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .352 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2004 ANA MLB 38 128 .195 .272 .335 .433 .259 .245 104 -9.2 3.8 -2.4 -2.1 -0.3 -8.1 -1.0 -8.1 -1.0
2004 ARK AA 28 130 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .375 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2004 SLC AAA 49 220 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .408 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 ANA MLB 47 143 .293 .259 .321 .419 .258 .275 98 5 4.1 -2.5 -0.6 -0.1 6.7 0.6 6.7 0.6
2005 SLC AAA 94 417 .285 .282 .359 .451 .278 .304 101 8.6 9.3 -6 -1.6 -0.8 12.6 1.0 12.6 1.0
2006 ANA MLB 29 88 .178 .267 .328 .425 .253 .169 101 -8.1 2.7 -1.6 -0.3 -0.4 -7.9 -0.8 -7.9 -0.8
2006 SLC AAA 3 8 .146 .269 .321 .397 .258 .000 88 -0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.0 -0.4 -0.0
2007 ANA MLB 137 508 .284 .271 .338 .423 .266 .305 100 13.3 15.1 -9.4 4.1 -3.0 13.3 1.7 13.3 1.7
2008 ANA MLB 100 398 .263 .264 .331 .415 .260 .279 102 1.3 11.5 -7.3 3.9 -2.8 1.9 0.6 1.9 0.6
2008 ATL MLB 43 175 .233 .257 .325 .408 .258 .252 97 -5.1 5.1 -3.2 -4.1 -0.7 -4.7 -0.9 -4.7 -0.9
2009 ATL MLB 87 336 .272 .262 .332 .423 .266 .292 97 4.4 9.7 -6.2 -0.4 -1.6 7.8 0.7 7.8 0.7
2009 BOS MLB 39 95 .214 .258 .327 .415 .255 .250 115 -4.6 2.7 -1.6 1.7 -0.3 -4.0 -0.2 -4.0 -0.2
2009 GWN AAA 2 5 .191 .247 .308 .354 .232 .000 105 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.0 -0.3 -0.0
2010 SEA MLB 125 457 .216 .257 .320 .401 .254 .229 97 -20.5 12.6 -8 -3.0 -3.7 -20.0 -2.4 -20.0 -2.4
2011 TBA MLB 146 563 .296 .254 .320 .401 .260 .335 99 19.8 15.2 -9.7 -2.2 -4.4 20.3 1.9 20.3 1.9
2011 DUR AAA 1 5 .250 .235 .299 .307 .227 .250 95 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0
2012 CLE MLB 142 500 .221 .253 .317 .403 .259 .233 99 -19.1 13.7 -8.6 8.8 -6.2 -16.9 -0.9 -16.9 -0.9
2013 MIA MLB 6 21 .020 .251 .314 .389 .256 .000 106 -4.8 0.6 -0.4 -0.0 0.0 -5.3 -0.6 -5.3 -0.6
2013 JUP A+ 18 69 .269 .245 .313 .344 .248 .333 91 0.6 2.0 -1.3 -0.2 -0.2 1.3 0.1 1.3 0.1

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG ISO TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2001 PRO Rk 24 6 11 3 0 0 7 2 0 0 0 .500 .542 .636 .136 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2002 CDR A 347 42 81 30 1 5 50 48 37 2 1 .281 .394 .444 .163 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2003 RCU A+ 245 42 72 12 0 8 28 30 16 2 0 .350 .446 .524 .175 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2004 SLC AAA 220 32 74 22 0 5 38 14 25 0 0 .372 .427 .558 .186 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2004 ARK AA 130 19 42 11 0 3 18 10 7 0 0 .368 .442 .544 .175 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2004 ANA MLB 128 7 26 6 0 0 15 7 11 3 0 .224 .289 .276 .052 .195 -8.1 -2.1 -1.0
2005 ANA MLB 143 16 35 5 0 7 22 15 18 1 1 .278 .352 .484 .206 .293 6.7 -0.6 0.6
2005 SLC AAA 417 62 105 23 1 10 58 43 40 0 2 .289 .375 .441 .152 .285 12.6 -1.6 1.0
2006 SLC AAA 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 .000 .125 .000 .000 .146 -0.4 -0.0 -0.0
2006 ANA MLB 88 6 12 2 0 1 6 7 13 0 1 .152 .221 .215 .063 .178 -7.9 -0.3 -0.8
2007 ANA MLB 508 64 131 37 3 11 68 53 43 2 4 .296 .372 .467 .172 .284 13.3 4.1 1.7
2008 ATL MLB 175 18 36 4 1 2 20 18 16 0 0 .237 .331 .316 .079 .233 -4.7 -4.1 -0.9
2008 ANA MLB 398 47 107 24 0 12 54 18 23 2 1 .287 .327 .448 .161 .263 1.9 3.9 0.6
2009 GWN AAA 5 2 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 .000 .250 .000 .000 .191 -0.3 0.0 -0.0
2009 BOS MLB 95 9 19 3 0 1 7 7 14 1 0 .218 .284 .287 .069 .214 -4.0 1.7 -0.2
2009 ATL MLB 336 28 84 20 0 6 41 32 28 0 0 .282 .354 .409 .128 .272 7.8 -0.4 0.7
2010 SEA MLB 457 37 90 20 1 9 51 35 57 0 0 .217 .280 .336 .118 .216 -20.0 -3.0 -2.4
2011 TBA MLB 563 44 153 24 2 10 48 48 66 2 2 .306 .378 .422 .116 .296 20.3 -2.2 1.9
2011 DUR AAA 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 .250 .400 .250 .000 .250 0.0 -0.1 -0.0
2012 CLE MLB 500 46 106 12 0 12 55 26 49 3 0 .229 .280 .333 .104 .221 -16.9 8.8 -0.9
2013 JUP A+ 69 7 18 4 0 0 8 7 7 0 0 .295 .377 .361 .066 .269 1.3 -0.2 0.1
2013 MIA MLB 21 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 .000 .048 .000 .000 .020 -5.3 -0.0 -0.6

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 1922 0.4865 0.4831 0.9029 0.6813 0.2938 0.9560 0.7862 0.0971
2009 1573 0.5054 0.4272 0.8720 0.5723 0.2789 0.9165 0.7788 0.1280
2010 1776 0.5259 0.4424 0.8851 0.6092 0.2542 0.9244 0.7804 0.1149
2011 2129 0.4932 0.4117 0.8744 0.5876 0.2400 0.9303 0.7413 0.1244
2012 1792 0.5246 0.4564 0.8776 0.6000 0.2969 0.9504 0.7154 0.1224
2013 80 0.4500 0.5375 0.9302 0.7222 0.3864 0.9231 0.9412 0.0698
Career92720.50580.44470.88310.61210.27270.9360.76120.1167

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2013-06-09 2013-08-26 60-DL 78 68 Left Abdomen Strain Oblique - -
2013-04-04 2013-06-03 60-DL 60 55 Left Thigh Strain Hamstring - -
2013-02-18 2013-02-25 Camp 7 0 Left Fingers Laceration Ring Finger - -
2012-03-11 2012-03-18 Camp 7 0 - Low Back Tightness - -
2011-08-27 2011-08-28 DTD 1 1 - General Medical Respiratory Flu - -
2011-05-30 2011-06-04 DTD 5 5 Right Ankle Soreness -
2010-05-09 2010-05-12 DTD 3 2 Right Ankle Contusion HBP -
2009-06-01 2009-06-16 15-DL 15 12 Right Lower Leg Strain Calf -
2008-03-12 2008-03-18 Camp 6 0 Right Lower Leg Laceration -
2007-08-23 2007-08-29 DTD 6 6 Left Hand Contusion HBP -
2007-06-17 2007-06-25 DTD 8 7 Head Concussion Thrown Ball While on Base -
2007-06-10 2007-06-12 DTD 2 1 Right Elbow Contusion HBP -
2006-05-09 2006-10-01 60-DL 145 128 General Medical Illness Mononucleosis -
2004-07-26 2004-07-27 Minors 1 0 Right Shoulder Strain Diving Catch -
2004-07-04 2004-07-23 Minors 19 0 Right Wrist Strain -
2004-01-23 2004-01-23 Off 0 0 Thigh Strain Hamstring -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2013 MIA $700,000
2012 CLE $3,000,000
2011 TBA $750,000
2010 SEA $3,517,500
2009 ATL $2,885,000
2008 ANA $1,450,000
2007 ANA $382,500
2006 ANA $340,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
8 yrPrevious$13,025,000
8 yrTotal$13,025,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
8 y 121 dCasey Close1 year/$0.7M (2013)

Details
  • 1 year (2013). Signed by Miami as a free agent 2/15/13 (minor-league contract). Salary of $0.7M in majors. May request release 3/26/13 if he will not make Major League roster. $0.1M retention bonus if he agrees to start season in minors. May opt out of contract 6/1/13 if not on Major League roster. Contract purchased by Miami 3/31/13. Released by Miami 8/26/13.
  • 1 year/$3M (2012). Signed by Cleveland as a free agent 2/3/12.
  • 1 year/$0.75M (2011). Signed by Tampa Bay as a free agent 1/28/11 (minor-league contract). Contract purchased by Tampa Bay 4/8/11.
  • 1 year/$3.5175M (2010). Acquired by Seattle in trade from Boston 1/7/10. Re-signed 2/3/10 (avoided arbitration, $3.9M-$3.135M).
  • 1 year/$2.885M (2009). Re-signed by Atlanta 1/31/09 (avoided arbitration, $3.25M-$2.475M). Acquired by Boston in trade from Atlanta 7/31/09.
  • 1 year/$1.45M (2008). Re-signed by LA Angels 1/18/08 (avoided arbitration). Performance bonus: $25,000 each for 550, 600 PAs. Acquired by Atlanta in trade from LA Angels 7/29/08.
  • 1 year/$0.3825M (2007). Re-signed by LA Angels 2/07.
  • 1 year/$0.34M (2006). Re-signed by LA Angels 3/06.
  • 1 year (2005).
  • 1 year (2004). Contract purchased by Anaheim 5/04.
  • Drafted by Anaheim 2001 (1-13). $2.075M signing bonus.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
90o 511 56 133 24 2 8 51 45 54 2 1 .291 .361 .402 .292 16.5 1B 1 1.9
80o 490 51 122 22 2 7 47 41 54 2 1 .276 .344 .382 .279 9.6 1B 1 1.1
70o 475 48 113 20 1 7 45 38 53 2 1 .266 .333 .367 .269 4.9 1B 1 0.6
60o 462 45 106 19 1 6 42 36 52 2 1 .257 .322 .355 .261 1.1 1B 1 0.2
50o 450 43 101 18 1 6 40 34 52 2 1 .248 .313 .343 .253 -2.3 1B 1 -0.2
40o 438 41 95 17 1 6 38 32 51 2 1 .240 .303 .332 .245 -5.4 1B 1 -0.5
30o 425 38 89 16 1 5 36 30 50 1 0 .231 .293 .320 .237 -8.6 1B 1 -0.9
20o 410 36 83 15 1 5 34 28 49 1 0 .221 .281 .306 .227 -12.1 1B 1 -1.2
10o 389 32 73 13 1 4 31 25 48 1 0 .207 .265 .286 .214 -16.5 1B 1 -1.7
Weighted Mean45544104191641355221.252.317.349.256-0.81B 10.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
1% 41% 6% 19% 92%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG TAv WARP VORP BRR POS_ADJ REP_ADJ RAA FRAA
201532250265310032121310.237.307.319.237-0.5-4.9-2.0-3.610.3-9.60.3
201633250275510132221310.243.314.333.243-0.3-2.7-2.0-3.69.6-6.70.3
201734250265210032122330.234.310.317.238-0.5-4.6-2.0-3.68.9-7.90.3
201835250265310032120330.237.305.327.238-0.5-4.6-2.0-3.67.9-6.90.3
201936250265210132122310.232.308.319.236-0.5-5.2-2.0-3.67.6-7.30.3
20203725025519022020350.230.302.308.231-0.7-6.4-2.0-3.66.4-7.30.3
20213825025499022020350.222.293.300.225-0.8-7.7-2.0-3.65.6-7.70.3
20223925023478021818360.207.272.273.208-1.2-11.5-2.0-3.65.5-11.40.3
20234025023509121819360.216.282.282.215-1.5-14.3-2.0-3.610.9-19.60.3

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
39.41525.621.111.14.7112.2

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 76)

Rank Score Name Year TAv Trend
1 88 Don Mattingly 1992 .273
2 87 Mark Grace 1995 .306
3 85 Gail Hopkins 1974 .207
4 81 Pete O'Brien 1989 .277
5 81 John Olerud 2000 .287
6 80 Wally Joyner 1993 .292
7 80 Dale Mitchell 1953 .294
8 80 Mike Sweeney 2005 .290
9 80 Tony Gwynn 1991 .285
10 80 Ed Kranepool 1976 .303
11 79 Ron Fairly 1970 .306
12 79 David Segui 1998 .291
13 79 Ferris Fain 1952 .314
14 78 Mike Greenwell 1995 .271
15 78 Floyd Robinson 1967 .244
16 78 Garrett Atkins 2011 .000 DNP
17 78 Edgardo Alfonzo 2005 .234
18 78 Placido Polanco 2007 .294
19 78 Joe Cunningham 1963 .309
20 78 Bill Madlock 1982 .305
21 77 Alvin Davis 1992 .255
22 77 Harvey Kuenn 1962 .290
23 77 David DeJesus 2011 .261
24 77 Doug Mientkiewicz 2005 .258
25 77 Maicer Izturis 2012 .230
26 77 Mike Hargrove 1981 .311
27 77 Richie Hebner 1979 .273
28 76 Conor Jackson 2013 .000 DNP
29 76 Roberto Alomar 1999 .302
30 76 George Kell 1954 .273
31 76 Norm Larker 1962 .280
32 76 Elmer Valo 1952 .324
33 76 Kevin Mench 2009 .000 DNP
34 76 Paul Lo Duca 2003 .258
35 76 Dion James 1994 .000 DNP
36 76 Gregg Jefferies 1999 .195
37 76 Mark Kotsay 2007 .213
38 76 Rod Carew 1977 .349
39 76 Ryan Theriot 2011 .240
40 76 Brooks Robinson 1968 .294
41 75 Dave Bergman 1984 .289
42 75 Hal McRae 1977 .299
43 75 Shannon Stewart 2005 .259
44 75 Matt Lawton 2003 .281
45 75 Felipe Lopez 2011 .201
46 75 Len Dykstra 1994 .289
47 75 John Milner 1981 .271
48 75 Coco Crisp 2011 .261
49 75 Chip Hale 1996 .240
50 75 Tom Hutton 1977 .270
51 75 Bruce Bochte 1982 .271
52 75 Shea Hillenbrand 2007 .205
53 75 Bill Buckner 1981 .290
54 75 Willard Marshall 1952 .295
55 75 Edgar Martinez 1994 .295
56 75 Dave Magadan 1994 .246
57 75 Aubrey Huff 2008 .302
58 75 Chone Figgins 2009 .282
59 74 Luis Gonzalez 1999 .309
60 74 Josh Bard 2009 .230
61 74 Jody Gerut 2009 .227
62 74 Jimmy Rollins 2010 .271
63 74 Brian Schneider 2008 .256
64 74 Cesar Cedeno 1982 .273
65 74 Scott Spiezio 2004 .221
66 74 Tim Raines 1991 .265
67 74 Freddy Sanchez 2009 .262
68 74 Buddy Bell 1983 .275
69 74 Edgar Renteria 2008 .246
70 74 Chuck Knoblauch 2000 .258
71 74 Al Spangler 1965 .241
72 74 Elliott Maddox 1979 .240
73 74 Carlos Ruiz 2010 .312
74 74 Jack Wilson 2009 .233
75 74 Kenji Johjima 2007 .267
76 74 Rusty Staub 1975 .309
77 74 Carney Lansford 1988 .264
78 74 Barry Larkin 1995 .302
79 74 Bob Molinaro 1981 .328
80 73 Cal Ripken Jr. 1992 .258
81 73 Brian Roberts 2009 .273
82 73 Jerry Hairston 2007 .194
83 73 Frank Torre 1963 .267
84 73 Jason Bartlett 2011 .229
85 73 Smoky Burgess 1958 .265
86 73 Orlando Hudson 2009 .277
87 73 Rusty Greer 2000 .276
88 73 Richie Scheinblum 1974 .167
89 73 Alex Cora 2007 .230
90 73 A.J. Pierzynski 2008 .245
91 73 Brendan Ryan 2013 .203
92 73 Brian Downing 1982 .308
93 73 Endy Chavez 2009 .236
94 73 John Valentin 1998 .268
95 73 Roy White 1975 .303
96 73 Rafael Furcal 2009 .262
97 73 Bobby Avila 1955 .275
98 73 Vic Power 1959 .271
99 73 Mike Scioscia 1990 .275
100 73 Wally Moon 1961 .325

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .233 .286 .307 .218
11 vs R (Multi) .246 .309 .365 .245
18 Split (Multi) .013 .023 .058 .027
19 LgAvg (Multi) .027 .038 .071 .034
30 vs L (2013) .000 .000 .000 -.062
31 vs R (2013) .000 .062 .000 .034
38 Split (2013) .000 .062 .000 .097
39 LgAvg (2013) .026 .037 .071 .034

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 Sometimes fans and analysts can get a bit hung up on BABIP and lean on it as the primary reason for a performance, whether good or bad. Those folks will miss positive adjustments or legitimate flaws in a player’s game and never see the assumed regression. Kotchman’s 2011 wasn’t one of those cases. Everything in his game was virtually the same, save a career-high .335 BABIP that was fueling his .306 batting average, also a career high. If he couldn’t maintain that, he wasn’t going to stay a .300-hitter. Turns out he couldn’t. In fact, he didn’t just regress to his career norm, he skipped right past that and posted a .233 BABIP in 2012, causing his average to sink to a paltry .229 for the Tribe.
2012 One of the biggest surprises in baseball, Kotchman revived his comatose career to start for a playoff team. Kotchman had been playing with an eye infection that was “like looking through a dirty windshield.” Offseason surgery corrected the issue and looking through a clean windshield can't have hurt given that he hit over .300 for the first time in his career. At a pure skill level, Kotchman was the same player he has always been but the results were better. His walk and strikeout rates, and batted ball outcomes were all identical to previous years, except for one puzzling developement: an increase in infield hits. Kotchman possesses grade-20 foot speed only because there is not a grade lower. yet he had a higher percentage of infield hits than Shane Victorino, Dexter Fowler, or Jimmy Rollins. Kotchman was viewed as one of the worst players in baseball just a year ago. Unlike, say, Jose Bautista, this does not feel like a legitimate change in true talent level.
2011 Although ideally the Mariners would have received something of value when they sent Bill Hall to Boston last January, they would have been better off had they simply given him away rather than accepting Kotchman in return. Among players who have accrued at least as many plate appearances as a first baseman in a single season as the Mariners' new acquisition did while manning the game’s premier offensive position, the lefty’s lowly TAv ranked third-worst since 1954, behind only the disco-era stylings of Dan Meyer and Dave Stapleton’s disastrous 1983. A low BABIP wasn’t kind to Kotchman, but he finished more than a few lucky bounces away from respectability, and his combination of extreme ground ball-hitting and slow-motion speed has never resulted in much success on balls in play. He’s generally been regarded as a capable fielder (though FRAA doesn’t necessarily see him that way), but he’d have to have been good enough to cover the entire right side of the infield by himself to rescue his season from the replacement level sub-basement.
2010 Charged with replacing Mark Teixeira, Kotchman slugged .378 over parts of two seasons with the Braves. He’s an outstanding defensive first baseman and has walked more than he has struck out in his three full major-league seasons, but entering his age-27 campaign, he already seems to have slipped into a Mientkiewiczian backup role, which makes him an odd fit for a Red Sox team that features a Gold Glove first baseman in Kevin Youkilis. Kotchman needs to find his power stroke to salvage his career as a starter, but he won’t get much opportunity to look for it stuck on the bench behind Youk and Victor Martinez.
2009 August was a tough month for Casey Kotchman. An Angels brat since his father became one of the club's minor league managers when Casey was just a year old, Kotchman was traded to the Braves at the trading deadline and immediately sunk into an awful slump, hitting .157/.259/.214 in his first 20 games with Atlanta. Then, his mother suffered a non-fatal brain aneurysm. After a two-week absence from the team, Kotchman returned having put things in perspective and hit .305/.394/.402. Prior to the trade, Kotchman’s unintentional walk rate was way down (26.5 PA/UIBB), the result of a misguided attempt to hit for more power, but with the Braves it returned to normal (10.9 PA/UIBB vs. 11.1 career entering the year). Having regained the plate approach that is the key to his offensive game, and with that emotional summer behind him, Kotchman should return to his 2007 form this year, solidly occupying first base until Freeman’s arrival, which should sync up with Kotchman’s free agency.
2008 At 24, Wally Joyner batted .290/.348/.457 producing a .282 EqA and tacked on 10 fielding runs above average for a WARP of 6.5. Kotchman played a little less than Joyner did, but everything else is basically right in line, and should continue to be so as Kotchman plays through his peak. He's very valuable to this Angels team, which needs all the OBP it can get.
2007 It really seemed that Kotchman had turned the corner during the second half of 2005, but then he got mono and essentially lost all of 2006. The Angels still think he`s the guy who helped them get to the playoffs in `05, and Morales`s struggles and Erstad`s likely departure should give them every opportunity to find out for certain. Because of the unusual circumstances in play, you might want to overlook that projection and play Rally Monkey-see, Rally Monkey-do in the hope that he`ll turn in a season`s worth of his 2005-level performance. He may lose time to the arrival of Shea Hillenbrand, but the veteran additon will also see time at third and DH.
2006 The problem with this Mighty Casey is he`s never at the bat, and when he is, the turn most often comes with the Mudville Nine rather than in the bigs. With Erstad dug in deeper than a Georgia tick, opportunities have been hard to come by. Although some feel Kotchman has finally turned the corner as far as driving the ball, there are still concerns that he is not showing the power you would want in a first baseman. Nevertheless, his rate stats are still miles ahead of Erstad`s and should serve as a hint and a half that he has more power than the incumbent, who has hit 37 home runs since 2000. Given the failure of Angels` designated hitters--they hit .256/.317/.382 in 2005--Kotchman should at the very least be given a chance to claim that job as preparatory work for his succeeding the undead Erstad after the latter`s contract is up at the end of the season. Damn the poem! Let Mighty Casey hit!
2005 The kind of player you'd order not to eat fish for fear he would choke on a bone. The Angels' version of Nick Johnson, Kotchman missed all but one game of July with wrist and shoulder strains. That's not going to do if the team is ever going to wean itself away from Erstadism. Though Kotchman has batted .333/.416/.510 in 222 minor league games, he's hit just 23 home runs (834 ABs). It's assumed the home runs will come, but instances of players suddenly developing new skill sets are more rare than is commonly believed. Still, as with all of Anaheim's top prospects, Kotchman has been challenged and might yet show more if he's not struck by lightning or trampled by an elephant.

BP Articles

Casey Kotchman is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Premium accessSkewed Left: How to Change Things When Change is HardZachary Levine2014-09-17
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Weekend Wrap-Up, 6/30Daniel Rathman2014-06-30
This article requires BP Premium accessPerfect Game Presents: 2014 MLB Mock Draft, Version TwoDavid Rawnsley2014-05-27
Pebble Hunting: Mike Trout and the Meaning of $140 MillionSam Miller2014-03-03
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The Lineup Card: Ten Late-Offseason Moves That Made a Difference Baseball Prospectus2014-01-22
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The Lineup Card: Seven Trade Ideas for the Winter MeetingsBaseball Prospectus2013-12-05
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 27, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-27
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This article requires BP Premium accessChanging Speeds: The All-Vindication TeamKen Funck2013-07-18
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: Fast Starts and Slow StartsMike Gianella2013-06-10
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This article requires BP Premium accessPebble Hunting: A Week of Watching Eric HosmerSam Miller2013-05-29
BP Unfiltered: Jeff Keppinger Finally Works a Walk, and a Disar Awards UpdateBen Lindbergh2013-05-17
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Painting the Black: Six Who ClickedR.J. Anderson2013-05-01
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Daily Roundup: Around the League: April 5, 2013Joe Hamrahi2013-04-05
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Daily Roundup: Around the League: April 1, 2013Clint Chisam2013-04-01
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This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: What it Would Mean for the Marlins if Placido Polanco Bats FourthBen Lindbergh2013-03-28
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Overthinking It: Mourning Manny ActaBen Lindbergh2012-09-28
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Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 14Larry Granillo2012-08-15
Painting the Black: John Jaso and the Changes That WorkR.J. Anderson2012-08-06
Tater Trot Tracker: Carlos Gomez's Foul Ball Trot, UpdatedLarry Granillo2012-07-26
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: The Midsummer Replacement-Level Killers, Part IJay Jaffe2012-07-23
BP Unfiltered: Never Underestimate the Value of a Hot StartBradley Ankrom2012-07-18
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What the Contenders Need: AL CentralKevin Goldstein2012-07-02
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BP Unfiltered: Casey Kotchman and Mike Napoli Chase HistoryR.J. Anderson2012-06-25
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 19Larry Granillo2012-06-20
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BP Unfiltered: Josh Johnson Falls Off the BeanstalkR.J. Anderson2012-06-10
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Overthinking It: Derek Lowe Goes Back in TimeBen Lindbergh2012-06-05
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Overthinking It: A Fond Farewell to the Fake to ThirdBen Lindbergh2012-05-11
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Worse Than Pujols, AL EditionJay Jaffe2012-05-02
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Overthinking It: Seven Things You Didn't See Last SeasonBen Lindbergh2012-04-10
Pebble Hunting: The PacersSam Miller2012-04-06
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The BP Broadside: The Best First Baseman in Angels HistorySteven Goldman2011-12-09
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One-Hoppers: ALDS G2: Jon Daniels' Rangers Strike BackR.J. Anderson2011-10-02
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Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for September 15Larry Granillo2011-09-16
Baseball ProGUESTus: Ghosts of MVPs PastAdam Sobsey2011-09-15
Painting the Black: Rays of Hope?R.J. Anderson2011-09-13
Transaction Analysis Blog: Yankees Add Betances, Rays Add WarmthR.J. Anderson2011-09-11
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe BP Trading Post: A Look at the CornersMichael Street2011-08-30
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BP Unfiltered: Damon's Hunt For 3KR.J. Anderson2011-08-16
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Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 12Larry Granillo2011-08-13
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Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 7Larry Granillo2011-08-08
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On the Beat: The Next General ManagersJohn Perrotto2011-07-29
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The Lineup Card: 17 Favorite Midseason TradesBaseball Prospectus2011-07-27
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Divide and Conquer, AL East: The ReplacementsDustin Parkes2011-07-22
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Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for July 15Larry Granillo2011-07-16
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The BP Wayback Machine: Trades that Made a DifferenceSteven Goldman2011-07-13
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Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 16Larry Granillo2011-06-17
Transaction Analysis: Farm AidBen Lindbergh2011-06-14
Transaction Analysis Blog: The Catch-Up EditionR.J. Anderson2011-06-09
Prospectus Hit List: AL: The Cream RisesTommy Bennett2011-05-30
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Fantasy Beat: I Stay AwayJason Collette2011-05-17
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Selling Loney: The (Potentially) New-Look DodgersMike Petriello2011-04-20
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The BP Broadside: The Most Disappointing Prospects of All Time, Part 2Steven Goldman2011-03-01
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Changing Speeds: The Next Jose BautistaKen Funck2011-02-08
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2013-11-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)James Loney is not Casey Kotchman 2.0...because???
(Snake Peavy from Pit)
I like him a little bit better than I liked Kotchman after his surprising Rays season, but not that much more. He's probably a league-average hitter, as a first baseman. So. (Ben Lindbergh)
2012-09-24 14:30:00 (link to chat)How do you explain what has happened to my Indians in 2012, especially the 2nd half?
(Ida from Chagrin Falls, OH)
There's no explaining a .279 second-half winning percentage, but I think the main things are a total lack of pitching behind Justin Masterson (who hasn't been great either), and the total offensive black holes in the corners (Casey Kotchman, Jack Hannahan and Shelley Duncan/Johnny Damon). (Bill Parker)
2012-05-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Now he gave up a double to Casey Kotchman.
(Jack from Madison)
Humber with whatever the opposite of a perfect game is today. (R.J. Anderson)
2012-03-15 12:00:00 (link to chat)Are you optimistic that Casey Kotchman will continue the success he had with the Rays now that he's an Indian?
(RJ from Palm Harbor)
Not particularly. Last year's success was due to an increase in singles driven by an increase in infield hits. Kotchman is still going to hit plenty of groundballs, but I don't think he'll beat as many out for hits going forward. (R.J. Anderson)
2011-06-20 14:00:00 (link to chat)So, do the Cards go and find a 4-6 week replacement for Pujols (Juan Miranda? Casey Kotchman?) or is it Berkman (when healthy) and prayer?
(dianagramr from NYC)
Given the length of time Pujols will be out, I don't see the Cardinals as making a move. I strongly suspect we'll see Berkman playing first base with Allen Craig and John Jay soaking up the bulk of the right field at-bats. (Jay Jaffe)
2011-02-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)James Loney = Casey Kotchman? Daric Barton = John Olerud?
(Bob from Seattle)
I'll buy it in the broad strokes, though Olerud is a best-case outcome for Barton. Barton needs more batting helmet. (Ben Lindbergh)
2010-02-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Re: the Mariners... I just don't see it. I like all the moved they made but it seems like they're still short a bat or two if they want to be a contender. Will all this excitement from the off season be for naught?
(Kyle from Arizona)
When half your lineup features players who are arguably the best defenders in the league at their position according to various metrics, you don't need to worry quite as much about the bats, but having said that, I'd be much more comfortable if they had brought back Russell Branyan instead of getting Casey Kotchman for first base. A lot depends on how well Milton Bradley rebounds - we know the dude can hit if he's healthy. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-01-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Jack Zduriencik everything he is cracked up to be?
(MarinerDan from San Francisco)
I think so. Creative thought plus an open mind to quality information from multiple sources? In an age when it seemed like paralysis by analysis seemed to rule the day, he's shown a remarkable ability to solve big problems without fear of consequences. That said, I'd wish for something better than Casey Kotchman at first base, but nobody's perfect. (Christina Kahrl)
2009-12-15 14:00:00 (link to chat)I know you prefer to stick to commenting on done deals, but how about your opinion on Max Ramirez possibly moving to Bean Town?
(jlewando from dc)
Definitely like it, especially if it puts Youkilis back at third and keeps them in the market for a real first baseman. Not Casey Kotchman; I said 'real.' (Christina Kahrl)
2009-08-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)How to fix the Mets and help the Sox .... Jose Reyes and a PTBNL (probably a Quad-A pitcher) for Clay Buchholz, Casey Kotchman and Chris Carter (am I nuts?)
(dianagramr from NYC)
Well, you're not nuts if you're the Red Sox. Especially since they just sent Carter to the Mets in the Wagner deal. If you're the Mets.... yeah, then you're nuts. (Shawn Hoffman)
2008-08-15 15:00:00 (link to chat)Christina, worried about old friends. What do you make of Casey Kotchman's step back in the walks department? We Halo fans were hoping he'd be the next incarnation of Wally Joyner, but now Braves fans would have to be pretty happy if he even met that.
(Paco from Orange County)
Kotchman believers have always had to latch onto little bits of happiness, like when it seemed that he'd finally turned the corner after a stretch of minor league slugging in 2005, but he keeps tripping over himself, to the point that he's almost the latter-day Mickey Vernon or something. A poor man's Mickey Vernon. At this point, Kotchman's in danger of devolving into a patch, a placeholder, somebody you resort to, not somebody you plug in as a matter of choice. I was a pessimist at the time of the deal, and I'm more pessimistic still now. (Christina Kahrl)
2008-07-29 16:00:00 (link to chat)Casey Kotchman and a pitching prospect for Tex?
(murraygd13 from MN)
and on that prospect, KG says: "I don't hate him, I kinda like him. They've move him to the bullpen this year, which is where most scouts thought he'd always end up in the first place. He's got that nice combination of being a big guy with above-average velo, but his secondary stuff isn't great, and it's a bit of a max-effort delivery. He's missing bats at Double-A, and I think he could miss bats all the way up.

Not a closer, but a big league bullpen arm, by mid-09 possibly."

So, there. (Will Carroll)
2008-07-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Miss seeing you at SABR conventions the last few years. There seems to be a lot of call in the local papers for the Angels to pick up a big bat, usually mentioning the usual suspect outfielders. I don't have a lot of faith that they would sit the appropriate person if they got a bat, so I am reluctant to join the bandwagon. What say you?
(sroney from Orange Co, CA)
And I've missed attending them, especially since I'd love to have caught up with people in Cleveland, but the logistics of life after repeated floodings sort of got in the way. I'll be catching back up again, there as in other places.

As far as the Angels, I guess I don't see the need in the outfield if they want to finally keep to a commitment to play Juan Rivera. I'm more worried about the problem of Casey Kotchman, because how much longer can they wait for his bat to arrive and just not receive all that much in terms of a reward? (Christina Kahrl)
2008-06-20 13:30:00 (link to chat)OK, so I know lineup order doesn't matter all that much and yadda yadda, but will there be any point in this season that Casey Kotchman gets to bat higher in the lineup than the barely breathing corpse of Garret Anderson? And really, isn't Anderson, along with Matthews Jr., a huge part of the reason the Angels' run differential is so mediocore?
(deadmonkeyhead from CA)
Yes. We kill the Dodgers for Jones and Pierre, but the Angels are paying just as much money to bad outfielders. The Matthews contract was inexplicable, indefensible, and is now part of the Angels' problem. Free Kendry Morales! (Joe Sheehan)
2008-05-30 13:00:00 (link to chat)What are the chances that Todd Helton can hit the pace of his PFM projection the rest of the way (.309 95/16/82). He hasn't shown much power and the Rockies have fallen down around him too.
(davelamb from san leandro)
Well, I'm not too impressed with the forecast in the first place, so I'd look elsewhere for first base help. Carlos Pena is starting to pick it up again, for those who gave up on him early. I just slotted him back into my lineup after patching it up with Casey Kotchman for a time. (Marc Normandin)


BP Roundtables

DateRoundtable NameComment
2010-04-05 09:30:00Season Opener RoundtableAnd walked his first batter (Chone Figgins), and allowed his first run, on a Casey Kotchman double of all things. Not that such a thing is impossible, but it's Casey Kotchman. (Christina Kahrl)
 

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