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August 14, 2012
Prospects Will Break Your Heart
Bring Me the Head of Travis Snider
by Jason Parks
The Backstory
Travis Snider was selected with the 14th overall pick in the 2006 draft, considered by many pundits and prognosticators as the best pure bat available in that class. After taking $1.7M to turn pro, Snider didn’t waste any time proving the theory that his bat was indeed special, ripping up the rookie Appalachian league with patience, power, and the ability to hit for average. He was clearly a special talent at the plate, with explosive hands that put command over the bat and allowed for plus bat speed. His physical presence was both a turn-on and a turn-off, as his linebacker physique brought near-elite strength to the table and, with his leveraged swing, allowed for plus-plus power projection to enter the player profile. The knock on the body was a lack of premium athleticism, which some believed would hinder him down the line with adjustments, both in the field and at the plate. Snider is built like former Dolphins linebacker Zach Thomas, standing under 6 feet tall and weighing around 240 lbs. I’m not sure why I picked Zach Thomas. I always liked him. Snider’s built like the last guy in the world you would want to wrestle, either for giggles or in a more serious context.
Snider jumped to the full-season Midwest league in 2007, and crushed the ball in an environment where most 19-year-olds aren’t capable of crushing the ball. He was applauded for using an all-fields approach, shortening up the swing to spray to the opposite field, or uncorking a leveraged attack, using his massive pull power to send balls over the right field fence. Scouts loved his swing, suggesting he could hit for both average and power at the highest level, and his overall approach didn’t have many red flags; he did show some swing-and-miss qualities, but given his age and his level, alarms weren’t sounding.
His defensive skill set wasn’t exceptional, but his arm was very strong and he had the necessary athleticism to stay in right field, assuming his focus on conditioning remained determined. His makeup was said to be special, and his work ethic was championed by all those who were able to participate or observe his immediate environment; if you spent any time around Travis Snider, you probably ended up giving his makeup some additional hype. He was that guy. By the e
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His contact rate has been VERY low for a long time. People seem happy to continue to think it will just get better, because he is (was) so young and has so much power.
Not. Gonna. Happen.
I don't think anybody thinks his contact rates will improve because he has so much power. As I explained in the article, the focus on in-game power might have been the biggest villan against his contact rates. Altering the hitting approach could allow for more/better contact. He's not a finished product so I think it's entirely possible that he improves as a hitter at the major league level. The industry sources I spoke with seemed to agree with that conclusion.
Sure, I understand, but how often do contact rates improve at the highest level? Maybe it's common enough, I don't know. I know it's not like he has some crazy long, loopy swing that's easily exploited by major league pitchers, etc., but what I meant was that it seems to me (and I could be wrong) that much of the "expectation" that he would improve derives from the fact that IF he did, wow, he'd be a terrific hitter. That is - wishing rather than analyzing.
Put it this way: how often do top prospects with super low contact rates meaningfully improve that part of their game?
I think it depends on the player, their developmental history, and the reasons behind the poor contact rates. I don't think Snider is going to emerge as a batting champion, but I do think he has the room to improve. His swing is capable of making [more] consistent contact. I think he needs reps at the major league level, even if the results aren't promising over a full season's worth of at-bats. When you're only given a short window for success, its hard not to press when things don't go as planned. I think we will know more about Snider the hitter if he's given 500 ABs at the major league level to fail/make adjustments/etc.
I did some very quick and dirty research on 10 outfielders off the top of my head who I thought had more or less improved their hitting since first coming up. Without cherry picking, here are the ones I looked at:
(Player then contact rates by year starting with their first exposure to the majors in a season with 150+ ABs)
1. J Upton ('08=66%, 74, 69, 79, 76)
2. M Kemp ('06=66%, 77, 75, 77, 72, 74, 76)
3. BJ Upton (’04=71%, 77, 68, 75, 73, 69, 71, 71)
4. C Young (‘07=75%, 74, 69, 75, 75, 75)
5. C Granderson (‘05=73%, 71, 77, 80, 78, 75, 71, 68)
6. A McCutchen (‘09=81%, 84, 78, 80)
7. C Gonzalez (‘08=73%, 75, 77, 78, 78)
8. R Braun (‘07=75%, 79, 81, 83, 83, 77)
9. J Hamilton (‘07=78%, 80, 76, 82, 81, 74)
10. T Snider (‘09=68%, 73, 70, 73)
There are definitely some cases here that support the theory that contact rate can be improved with experience but I was surprised to see it fluctuate so much for many on the list. Obviously we can’t draw conclusions from this but I think the data is, at least, directional. There are several low-average whipping boys on the list that I think illustrate how much Snider needs to improve to be considered a “higher average guy” again, but at least it’s clear he’s not the Adam Dunn of contact.
A 73% contact rate for this season is still low even with only 73 ABs (SSS, of course) under his belt so far, but if you look at the weekly trends, they portend he might be regaining some of that confidence the Professor points out (even if there’s a little help moving from TOR to PIT): week of 7/15=57%, 65, 71, 86, 100. We shall see…
BTW, good series, good article.
Thanks. I appreciate it. Good discussion.