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June 28, 2012

Top 10 Trade Targets

Moving On Up--To Contention

by R.J. Anderson and Derek Carty

The New Collective Bargaining Agreement has already affected the free-agent and draft classes. Soon, the new guidelines will reshape the trade market. The two most noticeable changes deal with draft-pick compensation. Foremost, teams that acquire a player in-season are no longer eligible to receive compensation. The elimination of Type-A and Type-B ranks means that teams holding onto their own players to net compensation will now be tasked with extending a qualifying offer worth the average salary of the 125 richest contracts in baseball (more than $12 million for the time being).

While those new rules will ostensibly lower the trade value of the average player, the decision to add two playoff spots could serve as a counterbalance. In theory, the increased demand will yield a higher return for the smaller number of sellers. In reality, that might not be enough to make up for the draft compensation changes. One thing is certain: the new rules could alter the relief pitcher market. The last time Astros reliever Brandon Lyon qualified for free agency, he achieved Type B status and netted his former team (the Tigers) a supplemental pick. This time around, Lyon will be on the move by the deadline if his team decides that two months of his service is worth less than the best offer on the table.

But not every player potentially on the move is subject to a careful calculus. Our staff put together a list of 10 players most likely to be dealt in preparation of what promises to be a different trade deadline. Those players, along with pertinent information, are presented below in alphabetical order.

Ryan Dempster, RHSP, Cubs

Contract status
2012 salary remaining: ~$7.0 million
Earliest free-agent eligibility: After 2012
Future guaranteed commitments: None 

Statistics
Season to date: 81 IP, 2.11 ERA, 1.3 WARP
Rest-of-season PECOTA projection: 96 IP, 3.76 ERA, 1.3 WARP