Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division with first-place votes in parentheses, plus the results of our pre-season MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting. Picking favorites for the Wild Card for the respective leagues initially might have seemed easy, since the selections universally favored the second-place team in the AL East, while all but two voters picked their second-place teams in the NL East to earn the non-division champ playoff team, but a tie in the rankings had to be broken in favor of the team named the Wild Card winner on the most individual ballots, which is sure to upset some people.
For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that's been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.). Next to each of these selections we've listed the total number of ballots, followed by the total number of points, and then the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received.
American League Standings
AL East
Team | Average | Total |
Boston Red Sox | 1.7 (6) | 20 |
2t New York Yankees | 2.2 (2) | 26 |
2t Tampa Bay Rays | 2.2 (4) | 26 |
Baltimore Orioles | 4.2 | 50 |
Toronto Blue Jays | 4.8 | 58 |
AL Central
Team | Average | Total |
Minnesota Twins | 1.7 (7) | 20 |
Chicago White Sox | 2.2 (4) | 26 |
Detroit Tigers | 3.0 (1) | 36 |
Cleveland Indians | 3.2 | 38 |
Kansas City Royals | 5.0 | 60 |
AL West
Team | Average | Total |
Texas Rangers | 1.6 (7) | 19 |
Seattle Mariners | 2.4 (2) | 29 |
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | 2.5 (2) | 30 |
Oakland Athletics | 3.5 (1) | 4.2 |
Individual Awards
AL MVP
- 3B Evan Longoria, Rays 8, 72 (6)
- C Joe Mauer, Twins 8, 57 (1)
- 3B Alex Rodriguez, Yankees 4, 32 (2)
- 1B Mark Teixeira, Yankees 4, 30 (2)
- 2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 3, 20 (1)
- 1B Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox 2, 12
- 1B Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 2, 14
- CF Torii Hunter, Angels 1, 5
- C Victor Martinez, Red Sox 1, 5
- CF Grady Sizemore, Indians 1, 5
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez, Mariners 7, 31 (5)
- Justin Verlander, Tigers 7, 22 (3)
- Jon Lester, Red Sox 7, 21 (1)
- CC Sabathia, Yankees 4, 14 (2)
- Zack Greinke, Royals 4, 6
- Javier Vazquez, Yankees 1, 5 (1)
- Josh Beckett, Red Sox 1, 3
- Fausto Carmona, Indians 1, 1
- Matt Garza, Rays 1, 1
- Rick Porcello, Tigers 1, 1
AL RotY
- SP Brian Matusz, Orioles 10, 44 (7)
- SP Neftali Feliz, Rangers 9, 23 (1)
- CF Austin Jackson, Tigers 6, 20 (3)
- SP Wade Davis, Rays 3, 9 (1)
- C Carlos Santana, Indians 3, 9 (1)
- C J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays 1, 1
- 1B Chris Carter, Oakland 1, 1
- SP Kyle Drabek, Blue Jays 1, 1
- 2B Sean Rodriguez, Rays 1, 1
National League Standings
NL East
Team | Average | Total |
Philadelphia Phillies | 1.2 (10) | 14 |
Atlanta Braves | 1.8 (2) | 22 |
New York Mets | 3.5 | 42 |
Florida Marlins | 3.6 | 43 |
Washington Nationals | 4.9 | 59 |
NL Central
Team | Average | Total |
St. Louis Cardinals | 1.0 (12) | 12 |
Chicago Cubs | 2.8 | 34 |
Milwaukee Brewers | 2.9 | 35 |
Cincinnati Reds | 3.4 | 41 |
Houston Astros | 5.3 | 63 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.6 | 67 |
NL West
Team | Average | Total |
1t Colorado Rockies | 1.8 (6) | 21 |
1t Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.8 (5) | 21 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 3.0 (1) | 36 |
San Francisco Giants | 3.5 | 42 |
San Diego Padres | 5.0 | 60 |
Individual Awards
NL MVP
- 1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals 11, 95 (6)
- 2B Chase Utley, Phillies 8, 61 (3)
- SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies 4, 30 (2)
- 1B Prince Fielder, Brewers 3, 19
- CF Jay Bruce, Reds 1, 10 (1)
- RF Justin Upton, Diamondbacks 2, 10
- CF Matt Kemp, Dodgers 1, 7
- LF Ryan Braun, Brewers 1, 5
- RF Andre Ethier, Dodgers 1, 5
- SS Hanley Ramirez, Marlins 1, 5
- LF Manny Ramirez, Dodgers 1, 5
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay, Phillies 10, 36 (5)
- Tim Lincecum, Giants 7, 23 (2)
- Dan Haren, Diamondbacks 4, 16 (3)
- Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers 3, 9 (1)
- Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies 1, 5 (1)
- Adam Wainwright, Cardinals 3, 5
- Chris Carpenter, Cardinals 2, 4
- Tommy Hanson, Braves 2, 4
- Edwin Jackson, Diamondbacks 1, 1
- Johan Santana, Mets 1, 1
NL RotY
- RF Jason Heyward, Braves 12, 56 (11)
- SP Stephen Strasburg, Nationals 10, 30
- SS Alcides Escobar, Brewers 5, 9 (1)
- 3B David Freese, Cardinals 1, 3
- 1B Pedro Alvarez, Pirates 2, 2
- SP Aroldis Chapman, Reds 2, 2
- 1B Ike Davis, Mets 1, 1
- SP Jaime Garcia, Cardinals 1, 1
- Will Carroll
- Jeff Euston
- Ken Funck
- Kevin Goldstein
- Joe Hamrahi
- Shawn Hoffman
- Jay Jaffe
- Christina Kahrl
- David Laurila
- Marc Normandin
- John Perrotto
- Matt Swartz
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | White Sox | Rangers |
Rays* | Indians | Mariners |
Yankees | Tigers | Athletics |
Orioles | Twins | Angels |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Evan Longoria
- Kevin Youkilis
- Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young
- CC Sabathia
- Josh Beckett
- Rick Porcello
AL RotY
- Austin Jackson
- Brian Matusz
- Kyle Drabek
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Cardinals | Diamondbacks |
Braves* | Brewers | Giants |
Mets | Cubs | Dodgers |
Marlins | Pirates | Rockies |
Nationals | Astros | Padres |
Reds |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Prince Fielder
- Justin Upton
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay
- Tim Lincecum
- Adam Wainwright
NL RotY
- Jason Heyward
- Stephen Strasburg
- Alcides Escobar
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Rays | White Sox | Mariners |
Red Sox* | Twins | Rangers |
Yankees | Indians | Angels |
Orioles | Tigers | Athletics |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Evan Longoria
- Joe Mauer
- Mark Teixeira
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez
- Jon Lester
- Justin Verlander
AL RotY
- Brian Matusz
- Carlos Santana
- Neftali Feliz
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Cardinals | Rockies |
Braves* | Cubs | Dodgers |
Marlins | Reds | Diamondbacks |
Nationals | Brewers | Giants |
Mets | Astros | Padres |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Troy Tulowitzki
- Albert Pujols
- Chase Utley
NL Cy Young
- Dan Haren
- Roy Halladay
- Adam Wainwright
NL RotY
- Jason Heyward
- Stephen Strasburg
- Jaime Garcia
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Yankees | Twins | Angels |
Red Sox* | White Sox | Rangers |
Rays | Tigers | Mariners |
Blue Jays | Indians | Athletics |
Orioles | Royals |
AL MVP
- Mark Teixeira
- Miguel Cabrera
- Kevin Youkilis
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez
- Justin Verlander
- Jon Lester
AL RotY
- Austin Jackson
- Brian Matusz
- Neftali Feliz
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Cardinals | Rockies |
Braves | Cubs | Dodgers * |
Mets | Brewers | Diamondbacks |
Marlins | Reds | Giants |
Nationals | Astros | Padres |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Troy Tulowitzki
- Albert Pujols
- Hanley Ramirez
NL Cy Young
- Tim Lincecum
- Chris Carpenter
- Roy Halladay
NL RotY
- Jason Heyward
- Stephen Strasburg
- Alcides Escobar
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | White Sox | Rangers |
Yankees* | Tigers | Athletics |
Rays | Twins | Mariners |
Orioles | Indians | Angels |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young
Justin Verlander
AL RotY
Brian Matusz
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Braves* | Reds | Rockies |
Mets | Cubs | Diamondbacks |
Marlins | Brewers | Giants |
Nationals | Astros | Padres |
Pirates |
NL MVP
Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young
Clayton Kershaw
NL RotY
Jason Heyward
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Yankees | Twins | Rangers |
Red Sox* | White Sox | Angels |
Rays | Indians | Mariners |
Orioles | Tigers | Athletics |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Mark Teixeira
- Evan Longoria
- Joe Mauer
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez
- Jon Lester
- Zack Greinke
AL RotY
- Carlos Santana
- Brian Matusz
- Neftali Feliz
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Braves* | Brewers | Diamondbacks |
Marlins | Cubs | Rockies |
Mets | Reds | Giants |
Nationals | Pirates | Padres |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Chase Utley
- Albert Pujols
- Justin Upton
NL Cy Young
- Dan Haren
- Roy Halladay
- Tommy Hanson
NL RotY
- Jason Heyward
- Stephen Strasburg
- Alcides Escobar
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Yankees | Twins | Rangers |
Rays* | Indians | Mariners |
Red Sox | White Sox | Angels |
Orioles | Tigers | Athletics |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Alex Rodrigues
- Joe Mauer
- Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez
- Zack Greinke
- CC Sabathia
AL RotY
- Wade Davis
- Neftali Feliz
- Carlos Santana
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Cardinals | Rockies |
Braves* | Brewers | Dodgers |
Marlins | Cubs | Diamondbacks |
Mets | Reds | Giants |
Nationals | Astros | Padres |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Chase Utley
- Manny Ramirez
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay
- Tim Lincecum
- Johan Santana
NL RotY
- Jason Heyward
- Stephen Strasburg
- Pedro Alvarez
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Rays | Twins | Rangers |
Yankees* | Tigers | Mariners |
Red Sox | White Sox | Angels |
Orioles | Indians | Athletics |
Blue Jays | ||
Royals |
AL MVP
- Evan Longoria
- Joe Mauer
- Mark Teixeira
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez
- CC Sabathia
- Justin Verlander
AL RotY
- Brian Matusz
- Neftali Feliz
- Austin Jackson
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Braves | Brewers | Rockies* |
Marlins | Cubs | Giants |
Mets | Reds | Diamondbacks |
Nationals | Astros | Padres |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Chase Utley
- Albert Pujols
- Troy Tulowitzki
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay
- Clayton Kershaw
- Tim Lincecum
NL RotY
- Jason Heyward
- Stephen Strasburg
- Aroldis Chapman
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | White Sox | Angels |
Rays* | Twins | Mariners |
Yankees | Indians | Rangers |
Orioles | Tigers | Athletics |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Evan Longoria
- Joe Mauer
- Grady Sizemore
AL Cy Young
- Jon Lester
- Felix Hernandez
- Justin Verlander
AL RotY
- Neftali Feliz
- Wade Davis
- Chris Carter (Oakland)
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Braves | Cardinals | Rockies |
Phillies* | Reds | Giants |
Mets | Cubs | Dodgers |
Marlins | Brewers | Diamondbacks |
Nationals | Pirates | Padres |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Chase Utley
- Albert Pujols
- Prince Fielder
NL Cy Young
- Ubaldo Jimenez
- Adam Wainwright
- Dan Haren
NL RotY
- Jason Heyward
- Stephen Strasburg
- Pedro Alvarez
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Tigers | Rangers |
Rays* | Twins | Angels |
Yankees | Indians | Mariners |
Orioles | White Sox | Athletics |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Evan Longoria
- Miguel Cabrera
- Victor Martinez
AL Cy Young
- Justin Verlander
- Jon Lester
- Matt Garza
AL RotY
- Brian Matusz
- Neftali Feliz
- J.P. Arencibia
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Braves | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Phillies* | Reds | Rockies |
Mets | Brewers | Diamondbacks |
Marlins | Cubs | Giants |
Nationals | Astros | Padres |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Jay Bruce
- Matt Kemp
- Ryan Braun
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay
- Tommy Hanson
- Edwin Jackson
NL RotY
- Alcides Escobar
- David Freese
- Jason Heyward
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Twins | Rangers |
Rays* | Tigers | Angels |
Yankees | White Sox | Mariners |
Orioles | Indians | Athletics |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Evan Longoria
- Joe Mauer
- Kevin Youkilis
AL Cy Young
- Justin Verlander
- Jon Lester
- Zack Greinke
AL RotY
- Brian Matusz
- Neftali Feliz
- Austin Jackson
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Cardinals | Rockies |
Braves* | Brewers | Dodgers |
Mets | Cubs | Diamondbacks |
Marlins | Reds | Giants |
Nationals | Astros | Padres |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Prince Fielder
- Chase Utley
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay
- Tim Lincecum
- Clayton Kershaw
NL RotY
- Jason Heyward
- Stephen Strasburg
- Aroldis Chapman
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Twins | Athletics |
Rays* | Indians | Angels |
Yankees | White Sox | Rangers |
Blue Jays | Tigers | Mariners |
Orioles | Royals |
AL MVP
- Dustin Pedroia
- Joe Mauer
- Torii Hunter
AL Cy Young
- CC Sabathia
- Felix Hernandez
- Fausto Carmona
AL RotY
- Brian Matusz
- Austin Jackson
- Sean Rodriguez
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Braves* | Cubs | Rockies |
Marlins | Brewers | Giants |
Mets | Reds | Diamondbacks |
Nationals | Pirates | Padres |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Chase Utley
- Andre Ethier
NL Cy Young
- Dan Haren
- Tim Lincecum
- Roy Halladay
NL RotY
- Jason Heyward
- Stephen Strasburg
- Ike Davis
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Yankees | Twins | Mariners |
Red Sox* | White Sox | Rangers |
Rays | Tigers | Angels |
Orioles | Indians | Athletics |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Joe Mauer
- Alex Rodriguez
- Dustin Pedroia
AL Cy Young
- Javier Vazquez
- Jon Lester
- Zack Greinke
AL RotY
- Brian Matusz
- Neftali Feliz
- Wade Davis
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Cardinals | Rockies |
Braves* | Reds | Dodgers |
Mets | Cubs | Diamondbacks |
Marlins | Brewers | Giants |
Nationals | Astros | Padres |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Chase Utley
- Troy Tulowitzki
NL Cy Young
- Tim Lincecum
- Roy Halladay
- Chris Carpenter
NL RotY
- Jason Heyward
- Stephen Strasburg
- Alcides Escobar
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1st: 7, 2nd: 3, 3rd: 1, and 4th: 1
And likewise for the Rockies in the NL West:
1st: 6, 2nd: 4, 3rd: 1, and 4th: 1
Will's vote is the lone "outlier" in selecting each of these teams to finish fourth in their divisions. Is this a case of being different just for the sake of being different? While the AL Central and NL West are both likely to be competitive divisions, I have a hard time envisioning either the Twins or Rockies falling below third place in either race.
Also, is BP the only publication on the planet where the Rays are receiving more first place votes than the Yankees?
Minnesota is in the north and pretty cold so people are more likely to get sick.
Colorado's high up and it is hard to breathe and recover from injury.
So Will's probably voting based on overall team health.
:)
He values health, and maybe figures the Twins and Rockies will suffer the worst of the injury bug in their divisions, so despite being truly superior to the rest of their respective divisions, there is not room on his ballot for these teams.
I also find it a bit ironic that Jay's Hit List ranks the A's the highest in the AL West but his personal ballot has them finishing last.
Also in Jay's comments he said he doesn't trust the A's that much, especially counting on Chavez. He just puts the Hit List out there with pure PECOTA projections.
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10447
What's wrong with this picture?
BP writers have picked Boston (4), Cleveland (4), or Oakland (3) to win the division a total of ELEVEN times in the last five years and have been right exactly TWICE (2006 Oakland, 2007 Clev) thus far.
During the same period, one could have taken the anti-BP dumb team picks of NY CHI and LA and been right at least a total of NINE times.
Glad to see BP finaly has given up on the Indian's and A's, but those old biases die hard when they come to the Red Sox - a team that has only won the division once over the last decade.
Thank You sbnirish77! You've done America a service it will never forget!!!!!
I'm bearish on Pettitte and somewhat bearish on Burnett. I think CC is probably a good bet too, but I think that Javier Vazquez has been the victim of bad luck and bad defense at the wrong times, and I think that the NL/AL league difference-- while huge-- is exaggerated to the point that people act like NL numbers are AAA numbers. Vazquez had a 2.68 SIERA last year to CC Sabathia's 3.70. I'm having a hard time thinking that the league difference is that big.