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Jay Bruce RFReds |
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2013 Projections (seasonal age 26) - Rest of Season Projections
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| YEAR | TEAM | AGE | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | TB | BB | SO | HBP | SF | SH | RBI | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | TAv | VORP | FRAA | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | CIN | 21 | 108 | 452 | 413 | 63 | 105 | 17 | 1 | 21 | 187 | 33 | 110 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 52 | 4 | 6 | .254 | .314 | .453 | .256 | 8.5 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| 2009 | CIN | 22 | 101 | 387 | 345 | 47 | 77 | 15 | 2 | 22 | 162 | 38 | 75 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 58 | 3 | 3 | .223 | .303 | .470 | .258 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2010 | CIN | 23 | 148 | 573 | 509 | 80 | 143 | 23 | 5 | 25 | 251 | 58 | 136 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 70 | 5 | 4 | .281 | .353 | .493 | .288 | 24.3 | 23.0 | 5.0 |
| 2011 | CIN | 24 | 157 | 664 | 585 | 84 | 150 | 27 | 2 | 32 | 277 | 71 | 158 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 97 | 8 | 7 | .256 | .341 | .474 | .276 | 23.5 | -2.4 | 2.2 |
| 2012 | CIN | 25 | 155 | 633 | 560 | 89 | 141 | 35 | 5 | 34 | 288 | 62 | 155 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 99 | 9 | 3 | .252 | .327 | .514 | .285 | 19.3 | 10.5 | 3.2 |
| 2013 | CIN | 26 | 44 | 196 | 183 | 25 | 52 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 88 | 12 | 58 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 2 | .284 | .327 | .481 | .292 | 10.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Career | 713 | 2905 | 2595 | 388 | 668 | 133 | 16 | 140 | 1253 | 274 | 692 | 16 | 18 | 2 | 406 | 29 | 25 | .257 | .330 | .483 | .276 | 96.1 | 36.0 | 14.0 | ||
Advanced
'opp' stats - quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.| YEAR | Team | Lg | G | PA | TAv | oppAVG | oppOBP | oppSLG | oppTAv | BABIP | BPF | BRAA | repLVL | POS_ADJ | FRAA | BRR | BVORP | BWARP | VORP | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | BIL | Rk | 17 | 81 | .289 | .280 | .364 | .417 | .000 | .318 | 92 | 2.8 | 2.1 | -0.8 | 2.8 | -3.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2006 | DYT | A | 117 | 498 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .351 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| 2007 | SAR | A+ | 67 | 298 | .325 | .260 | .329 | .384 | .000 | .400 | 102 | 22.3 | 8.5 | -0.3 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2007 | CHT | AA | 16 | 74 | .358 | .251 | .317 | .388 | .000 | .429 | 103 | 7.9 | 2.1 | -0.1 | -0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2007 | LOU | AAA | 50 | 204 | .320 | .260 | .334 | .396 | .000 | .359 | 102 | 13 | 5.6 | 0 | -1.7 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2008 | CIN | MLB | 108 | 452 | .256 | .261 | .321 | .410 | .000 | .296 | 104 | -1.7 | 12.6 | -2.7 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 8.5 | 0.8 | 8.5 | 0.8 |
| 2008 | LOU | AAA | 49 | 201 | .353 | .270 | .336 | .423 | .000 | .442 | 102 | 19.9 | 5.3 | -0.5 | 2.0 | -1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2009 | CIN | MLB | 101 | 387 | .258 | .261 | .321 | .413 | .000 | .221 | 100 | -0.9 | 10.7 | -4.1 | 3.3 | -0.0 | 10.0 | 1.4 | 10.0 | 1.4 |
| 2009 | LOU | AAA | 5 | 20 | .223 | .254 | .320 | .368 | .000 | .333 | 102 | -1.5 | 1.1 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2010 | CIN | MLB | 148 | 573 | .288 | .256 | .317 | .398 | .000 | .334 | 103 | 16.5 | 16.0 | -5.8 | 23.0 | -0.7 | 24.3 | 5.0 | 24.3 | 5.0 |
| 2011 | CIN | MLB | 157 | 664 | .276 | .256 | .312 | .396 | .000 | .297 | 106 | 10.7 | 11.4 | -6.6 | -2.4 | 3.6 | 23.5 | 2.2 | 23.5 | 2.2 |
| 2012 | CIN | MLB | 155 | 633 | .285 | .255 | .312 | .402 | .000 | .283 | 106 | 15.6 | 10.8 | -6.3 | 10.5 | -4.2 | 19.3 | 3.2 | 19.3 | 3.2 |
| 2013 | CIN | MLB | 44 | 196 | .292 | .253 | .313 | .391 | .257 | .383 | 103 | 6.2 | 5.4 | -2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 10.7 | 1.3 |
| Career | MLB | 2905 | .277 | .257 | .316 | .402 | .256 | .296 | 104 | 48.4 | 74.8 | -27.6 | 35.5 | -0.9 | 98.7 | 14.0 | 98.7 | 14.0 | ||
Statistics For All Levels
| Year | Team | Lg | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO | TAv | VORP | FRAA | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | BIL | Rk | 81 | 16 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 2 | 2 | .257 | .358 | .457 | .200 | .289 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 |
| 2006 | DYT | A | 498 | 69 | 129 | 42 | 5 | 16 | 81 | 44 | 106 | 19 | 9 | .291 | .360 | .516 | .225 | .000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2007 | SAR | A+ | 298 | 49 | 87 | 27 | 5 | 11 | 49 | 24 | 67 | 4 | 4 | .325 | .384 | .586 | .261 | .325 | 0.0 | 4.1 | 0.0 |
| 2007 | CHT | AA | 74 | 10 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 20 | 2 | 1 | .333 | .405 | .652 | .318 | .358 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 0.0 |
| 2007 | LOU | AAA | 204 | 28 | 57 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 15 | 48 | 2 | 2 | .305 | .360 | .567 | .262 | .320 | 0.0 | -1.7 | 0.0 |
| 2008 | CIN | MLB | 452 | 63 | 105 | 17 | 1 | 21 | 52 | 33 | 110 | 4 | 6 | .254 | .314 | .453 | .199 | .256 | 8.5 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| 2008 | LOU | AAA | 201 | 34 | 67 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 37 | 12 | 45 | 8 | 1 | .364 | .403 | .630 | .266 | .353 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| 2009 | CIN | MLB | 387 | 47 | 77 | 15 | 2 | 22 | 58 | 38 | 75 | 3 | 3 | .223 | .303 | .470 | .246 | .258 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2009 | LOU | AAA | 20 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .278 | .350 | .278 | .000 | .223 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 2010 | CIN | MLB | 573 | 80 | 143 | 23 | 5 | 25 | 70 | 58 | 136 | 5 | 4 | .281 | .353 | .493 | .212 | .288 | 24.3 | 23.0 | 5.0 |
| 2011 | CIN | MLB | 664 | 84 | 150 | 27 | 2 | 32 | 97 | 71 | 158 | 8 | 7 | .256 | .341 | .474 | .217 | .276 | 23.5 | -2.4 | 2.2 |
| 2012 | CIN | MLB | 633 | 89 | 141 | 35 | 5 | 34 | 99 | 62 | 155 | 9 | 3 | .252 | .327 | .514 | .263 | .285 | 19.3 | 10.5 | 3.2 |
| 2013 | CIN | MLB | 196 | 25 | 52 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 12 | 58 | 0 | 2 | .284 | .327 | .481 | .197 | .292 | 10.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Injury History beta
| Date On | Date Off | Transaction | Days | Games | Side | Body Part | Injury | Severity | Surgery Date | Reaggravation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-02-25 | 2013-02-28 | Camp | 3 | 0 | Right | Foot | Contusion | Heel | - | - |
| 2011-07-21 | 2011-07-23 | DTD | 2 | 1 | - | General Medical | Illness | Dizziness | - | - |
| 2011-06-26 | 2011-06-27 | DTD | 1 | 1 | General Medical | Illness | - | |||
| 2011-05-18 | 2011-05-19 | DTD | 1 | 1 | General Medical | Illness | Flu Like | - | ||
| 2011-04-13 | 2011-04-15 | DTD | 2 | 1 | Groin | Strain | - | |||
| 2011-03-02 | 2011-03-05 | Camp | 3 | 0 | General Medical | Illness | - | |||
| 2010-08-31 | 2010-09-13 | DTD | 13 | 12 | Trunk | Strain | Ribs | - | ||
| 2009-07-12 | 2009-09-14 | 15-DL | 64 | 57 | Right | Wrist | Fracture | - | ||
| 2009-04-20 | 2009-04-21 | DTD | 1 | 1 | Right | Hand | Soreness | - | ||
| 2009-04-18 | 2009-04-19 | DTD | 1 | 1 | Right | Hand | Soreness | - | ||
| 2008-09-21 | 2008-09-23 | DTD | 2 | 2 | Right | Hand | Contusion | HBP | - | |
| 2008-03-02 | 2008-03-07 | Camp | 5 | 0 | Left | Thigh | Strain | Quadriceps | - | |
| 2007-10-20 | 2007-10-20 | Off | 0 | 0 | Thigh | Strain | Hamstring | - |
Compensation
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BP Articles
Jay Bruce is referenced in the following articles.
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BP Chats
| Date | Question | Answer |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-01-24 13:00:00 | Has Jay Bruce hit a wall in his development, or do you see a further breakout from him? (PJ from Bronx) | I like Jay Bruce, and I do think that a further breakout for him is in the cards. It's hard to bank on a guy at the level of Bruce to take one more step forward, and I wouldn't pay for it, but it's definitely within the realm of possibility and something I would keep in mind when contemplating him on draft day. (Derek Carty) |
| 2011-04-25 13:00:00 | I have Jay Bruce and Nelson Cruz, both just kind of disappointing so far. How much should i readjust what i'm expecting from them? (Tony from Albuquerque) | We're not even out of April yet. Without injury, reassessing much of anything is premature, especially for players you expect to be great.
My go-to example for this now is David Ortiz in 2010. He had a 524 OPS in April of 2010, and finished at .270/.370/.529 with an 899 OPS. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2011-04-13 13:00:00 | Thoughts on Jay Bruce's early struggles? Seems he forgot how to lay off that low/away breaking ball. Second half of last year he wanted nothing to do with it. Is it just a matter of getting into a rhythm? (J from NY) | I think he will be fine, but his balance looks off and pitch recognition skills aren't sharp at the present. I picked him to win the NL MVP, so he needs to starting chopping. (Jason Parks) |
| 2011-04-12 13:00:00 | What's going on with Jay Bruce? When is he going to bounce into the MVP form that all the BP'ers have expected from him? (SnakeDoctor18 from New York, NY) | I wasn't one of the BPers who predicted an MVP season, but things will get much better for Bruce, and soon. (Ben Lindbergh) |
| 2011-03-08 14:00:00 | you (reza from reza) | No, you!
Re. Jay Bruce, just consider these two facts... he's still only 23 years old, and he ranked 3rd in MLB last year in homers by lefty hitters off lefty pitchers. I think he's going to be a superstar (think Adam Dunn with fewer walks but a little more AVG and a few SB's, and decent defense), and maybe even this year. (Cory Schwartz) |
| 2011-02-22 13:00:00 | Jay Bruce - does the breakout happen this year? (Matthew from OH) | Well, it sort of happened last season, but yes....it gets even better in 2011. (Jason Parks) |
| 2011-01-18 13:00:00 | What do you expect from Jay Bruce this year? Break out candidate? (peachycream from Chicago) | This is the year! Buy on Bruce! He hit .338/.418/.699 in the last two months, and while I certainly don't expect that to continue, I do think he'll finally be a serious fantasy player. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2011-01-18 13:00:00 | Can Jay Bruce be this year's Carlos Gonzalez? You know, that mid round OF who vaults to the elite the next year. If things bounce right, I could see Bruce hitting 40 bombs this year.. but 30+ for sure. (Nick from Denver) | Without the Coors benefit of course, but yeah, he should outperform his draft position in loads of leagues. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2011-01-18 13:00:00 | I've got an outfield heavy team in an 11 team, standard 5x5 league with 5 keepers (boring, I know). I'm currently thinking David Wright, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Justin Verlander and Matt Latos. But I also have Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus and Cole Hamels as options. I've recently had the skill of kicking ass drafting starting pitching in the 9th-15th rounds, but who knows if that continues... Am I keeping the worst OF in Upton just because of hype? Which five of those eight do you keep? (Adam from Philly) | I would see what you can get in a trade for Upton--I think he turns into something great, but you might find someone who buys him on the hype of his turning into even more. I would keep Bruce over Kemp though. Verlander/Latos is the right call for the SP, thanks to their respective parks. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2011-01-03 14:00:00 | Do you get the feeling that Jay Bruce could be on the verge of a monster season? (Tom from OH) | I do. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2010-11-09 14:00:00 | Jay Bruce is going to be as good in 2011 as everyone projected he would be three years ago, isn't he? (MEDAFAP from CA) | Like the chances. What's with all the Reds questions? (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2010-10-14 13:00:00 | The Sky is Blue;
The Mets are a mess;
Jay Bruce is a ____;
(JD Sussman from Torts Class) | beast. Jay Bruce is a beast. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-09-29 13:00:00 | Next 5 years, Jay Bruce or Joey Votto? (Rick from Chicago) | Votto. He does have a few years on Bruce, so 5 years from now Votto will have reached the wrong side of 30, while Bruce will still be squarely in his prime, but I'm going to go with the guy who's already a presumptive MVP. For the 5 years after that, I might change my answer. (Ben Lindbergh) |
| 2010-08-26 13:00:00 | Going forward in a standard league w/ OBP, SLG and OPS - Jay Bruce, Dexter Fowler, Coco Crisp or JD Drew? (Jeff from South Jersey) | I like Fowler the least of all of those guys right now. Drew is the safe pick, Bruce the upside pick, and Crisp is hitting as well as he ever did before he busted his finger open in his first year with Boston (and has 22 steals!) to boot. So it depends on what you prefer/need more of--safety, upside, or if you want to get some steals out of it while you're at it. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-08-26 13:00:00 | Woulde you rather play Miggy Montero or Jay Bruce in an OBP league in a UTIL sloit? Would you drop or bench the other player? (I could take Lyons now). Thanks. (Will from Mactaquac) | Montero will probably have the better OBP, but he's going to have fewer PA than Bruce, so you may lose out in some counting categories. I still have a lot of faith in Bruce going forward, and I'm not sure how I feel about a catcher in a utility slot unless he's a beast at the plate. Is it keeper or single year? (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-08-09 13:00:00 | At what point in a player's career does it become detrimental to send a guy down to AAA for a refresher course (I'm thinking about Jay Bruce here)? (Scott from DC) | Well, I strongly advocated it for Beckham this summer, if that gives you an idea.
Bruce, IMO, hasn't played poorly enough to warrant that treatment, not to mention the Reds don't have any better plan. I don't think he's so far along where you couldn't try it, just that these circumstances don't fit. Didn't the Braves send Francaeiour down last year? (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2010-07-09 13:00:00 | Is Andy Marte destined to haunt BP forever? Your #1 overall prospect ranking led me to keep Marte on my keeper team for three years before finally cutting ties. Now I'm gun-shy about Jay Bruce, whom I also hold. (Daniel from Ether) | To be fair, I think the entire world thought Andy Marte was the Next Big Thing. Everyone except the Braves and Red Sox were collectively wrong about Marte. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-05-11 16:30:00 | Go Phils. I have an abundance of pitchers and a need for outfielders in a 16 team mixed league. Should I try to trade Wade Davis for Jay Bruce or Jason Kubel? These teams just can't put up a good phight against the Phils these days. (choms57 from philadelphia) | Go Phils.
It's kind of hard for me to evaluate a fantasy trade because I don't have a sense of how valuable these guys are in a given league. I do think Wade Davis is playing over his head. If he doesn't stop issuing walks, he's going to start allowing a lot more runs when his share of hits starting falling in. Jay Bruce finally has hit BABIP up to normal, but he's probably got a little more power than this. I think his numbers are starting to look normal again, though. Kubel like I said earlier just isn't hitting the ball as hard as he should, so he might need a little time to work out kinks. (Matt Swartz) |
| 2010-04-28 13:00:00 | may be a better question for fantasy guys/ i was just offered Ryan Howard for Prince Fielder. Shoul.d I do it? (keentower from MA) | I wouldn't, but then again, I predicted Jay Bruce to win this year's NL MVP, so I might not be the right person to ask. (David Laurila) |
| 2010-03-26 13:00:00 | Jay, who are your pet players this year? Guys you expect to put themselves on the map or take an underrated step forward? (slim from Fairfield Cty) | You know, for some reason the team I always come back to for questions like this is the Reds. Not that I EXPECT their young guys to take a step forward so much as that I'm interested to see if they can. To see if pitchers like Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake or Aroldis Chapman can succeed in that ballpark, under Dusty. To see if Jay Bruce finally lives up to the hype, if Chris Dickerson can hold down a regular corner spot. I don't actually root for the Reds, but I've been intrigued by their collection of talent for years. (Jay Jaffe) |
| 2010-02-17 16:00:00 | Tommy,
Who are some players that you hope to add to all your fantasy teams this year (mid to late round)? Thanks,
Dan (dandaman from Sea Cliff) | I got a couple questions to this effect. I think Cody Ross remains underrated, especially if you play in a league with individual outfield positions. I think Rafael Soriano is a great closer for where he is going in drafts. I'm big on a bounce back from Jay Bruce as well. (Tommy Bennett) |
| 2010-02-05 13:00:00 | What young player do you think takes the biggest step forward this year for fantasy purposes...Rasmus, Bruce, McCuthchen, or A.Jones? (kgoodson3 from New Orleans) | Jay Bruce. I expected him to struggle in the first half, and he did. I'm excited to see what he does now that he's healthy and has some more experience against MLB pitching behind him.
I'm listening to 3 Inches of Blood. What does everyone else have on? (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-02-05 13:00:00 | I'm in a NL only, auction, keeper league. We can keep up 15 players off of our 25 man roster. budgets size is $285. I have both Jay Bruce ($15) and Jonathan Sanchez ($10) coming into the final year of their contracts. Neither haas been great (or average) to this point, but I believe their best days are ahead. My question is: do I keep them at their present price for this year only or do I put them back and try to get them back (at probably similar salary) in order to have them for 2 additional years. Thanks for commenting and chatting. (jaysbluejays from pdx) | I would think it might be tough to guarantee you'll get Bruce back--you may end up starting a little bidding war with someone else who likes him and pay about the same anyways. Is that worth the risk of losing him? Sanchez you may be able to swing with that strategy though. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-02-09 13:00:00 | Jay, can you give us your prediction for Jay Bruce this year? Obviously his struggles last year were in part due to horrendously bad luck, but he also had some approach issues which he seemed to correct when he came back at the end of the year. Is .270/.360/.540 unrealistic? (Rick from Chicago) | I'd be more comfortable projecting him for closer to a .340 OBP and about a .520 SLG, but the raw power is there, and the ballpark will help. (Jay Jaffe) |
| 2010-02-02 13:00:00 | What are your thoughts on the 2010 Reds? Any chance they contend in 2010? (Brandon from Charleston, WV) | No. I think PECOTA is dead wrong on that team. The division isn't great, so it could be like a couple years ago where they "stay in it" but they'll need Stubbs to establish himself, for Jay Bruce to be a real star rather than pretty good, and Joey Votto to take the next step. They're counting on Scott Rolen and a Dusty Baker pitching staff to stay healthy so ... (Will Carroll) |
| 2009-12-09 13:00:00 | Thanks for the chat, Joe. What do you foresee in 2010 for Jay Bruce? (Reds99 from California) | I'm willing to write off his '09 as an injury year, but I am concerned that he's going to be less and average and OBP guy and more a low-BA power bat with good defense. Tom Brunansky, maybe? (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-10-28 14:00:00 | When can you declare a former top prospect a bust?
Are Delmon Young, Alex Gordon, and Jay Bruce busts? (Ron from Vancouver) | I think a player's first year of arbitration eligibility is a good point of reckoning, because it's at that point where they start to cost real money instead of something closer to the major league minimum. Not that it's the final word, but it's certainly when a team has to start considering how much future investment a player is worth.
By that token, I'd call Young a bust. Gordon's at three years of service, too, but he gets a pass because of injury. Bruce has at least another year before that point is reached, because he's probably going to be short of where the Super Two line is in 2010. (Jay Jaffe) |
| 2009-08-11 13:00:00 | Did Jay Bruce break a bone in his wrist or arm? Is there a comp for this one? Will it effect his prodigious pull power? (mwball75 from Cincinnati, OH) | Looks like arm. I'm having to read tea leaves on this one, but seems as if it's along the lines of Evan Longoria last year. (Will Carroll) |
| 2009-07-21 13:00:00 | You think the Cubs can win the NL Central? Thoughts on Randy Wells? (Salmon from Chitown) | Can? Certainly. Will they? Hmmm.....I'm not sure who to peg as the likely winner. I know that I irked a lot of Cardinals fans at the beginning of the season when I picked them to finish near the bottom of the division. Clearly, they are a better team than I envisioned, and I readily admit to missing something. The Brewers MIGHT have enough, and presumably are exploring Halladay options. Without the Jay Bruce injury, I think the Reds would have contended late into September. So, my final answer....the Cubs probably fall short. (David Laurila) |
| 2009-05-21 14:00:00 | Who will be the best in 5 years out of these guys: Justin Upton, Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun, Travis Snider? (Mike from Utica,NY) | Upton, with Longoria close behind. Upton should be in the home-run contest; he hits ridiculously impressive shots. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-04-13 14:00:00 | Should I be worried about Jay Bruce? (stewbies from Rochester) | He certainly didn't have a great year last year except for those first couple weeks, but come onhe's 22 years old. He needs time to grow and to adjust before anyone should start worrying about him. (Jay Jaffe) |
| 2009-04-16 13:00:00 | The Jay Bruce "Make a Splash, Then Stay All Wet" Award (Scott from Detroit) | "Make A Splash, Oh No I Can't Swim" award also works. Don't worry, we can take his floaties off someday. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2009-02-24 13:00:00 | Since I can only keep one in my (points based) fantasy league, who is more likely to be a truly SPECIAL player this year: Liriano or Jay Bruce? I'm sure they'll both be good, but who am I least likely to regret not keeping around? (Jed from San Francisco) | Liriano. He's closer to his potential upside, and you can replace offensive stats more easily than pitching ones. Keep him. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-02-24 13:00:00 | Jay Bruce over/under 30 homers in 2009? (Brandon from Charleston) | I would have no confidence in either side of that bet. Gun at my head, I'll say under, as he picks up some BA and doubles. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-02-24 13:00:00 | Having answered the Kershaw/Joba Q, same thing for outfielders: who has the better year, Jay Bruce or Colby Rasmus? Or is Raz going to continue to be behind the TLR eight-ball and get stuck in the minors again? (Bill from New Mexico) | Bruce just because he's more certain to play. The Cardinals aren't doing the best job of aligning their talent at the moment, and I still think they should solve that by trading Ryan Ludwick for a middle-infield solution. Maybe that deal isn't available, but I'd try like hell to make it happen. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-02-11 14:00:00 | If the Reds bring in a new left fielder, how does Dickerson rate in CF? Could a Dickerson/Taveras platoon work? (birkem3 from Dayton, OH) | I'm not sold on either guy. If I were Walt Jocketty, and I'm not, I would play Jay Bruce in center and find two corner guys who can hit. There were a lot of those guys out there this winter and I think the Reds whiffed on a chance to become the one legitimate challenger to the Cubs in the NL Central. (John Perrotto) |
| 2009-02-06 13:00:00 | Which absurdly young stud has the better '09: Jay Bruce, Justin Upton? (Andrew from Ohio) | I still cannot see Bruce's name without getting ELO's "Don't Bring Me Down" stuck in my head. So thanks, Andrew. Thanks a lot. My instinct is Upton based on his strong September, though Bruce was also quite good that month. If I say I think they'll both be good, is that a cop-out? If I had long-term chips, I'd bet Upton. (Steven Goldman) |
| 2009-01-29 13:00:00 | Jay Bruce or Joey Votto? Who will have the most fantasy production for the 2009 season? (bianchiveloce from Anderson, SC) | Ooh, good question. You've got the high-upside potential star who struggled and produced at random times in Bruce, and you've got Votto, who is definitely the safe pick for production out of the two. I think there's a good chance that Votto outproduces Bruce over the long run in 2009, but only because it takes Bruce some time to dig in and turn a corner. Once he turns, he's The Man. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2008-12-04 13:30:00 | Where do you see Jay Bruce winding up defensively? Can he do an adequate job in CF or will he shift to RF as soon as the Reds get a CF? For career value, would you rather have Bruce or David Price? Thanks. (KerryFam4 from Atlanta) | My natural antipathy towards pitchers will always make me answer "Bruce," although Price is the guy who gives me pause in that. I see Bruce as a right fielder who can and will play center until the better option emerges. He's not going to hurt the Reds out there, but he would be a plus right fielder, maybe win some awards. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2008-12-05 14:00:00 | Do you Reds fans finally have reason for optimism with a solid young core of Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Phillips, Chris Dickerson, Johnny Cueto, and Edinson Volquez? (Brandon from Charleston) | Absolutely, there's reason for optimism so long as Dusty Baker doesn't mangle those arms.
I had the Reds as my sleeper team last year and while they didn't get there, most of the guys you mentioned are fascinating, with a ton of upside. The series I watched most closely all year long was when the Reds came to Yankee Stadium in late June. I don't see the Reds with a shot at the 2009 NL Central but I think third place is a possibility with the right moves this winter. One of which might be taking out a restraining order against Baker from coming to the ballpark. (Jay Jaffe) |
| 2008-10-15 13:00:00 | With quality young talent like Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Joey Votto, and others, do you think the Reds are close to contending? (smitty25039 from Charleston) | If you haven't already, check out Kevin Goldstein's article on which teams might be the "next Rays" in the NL. http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8203
The Reds are close, but as Goldstein says, the outlook is "semi-bright, but not perfect." One big problem is the outfield corners; they've got nobody now without Dunn, and it doesn't look like minor league center fielder Drew Stubbs is quite ready to make enough impact with the bat to move Jay Bruce to a corner. According to Goldstein, Cincinnati is also pretty weak in pitching prospects beyond the group that already hit the majors this season, and the 2008 results from Homer Bailey were discouraging. Still, Cueto and Volquez are a fantastic young duo, and I'm pretty high on Ramon Ramirez, too, who pitched well in September and has a nasty changeup. Not in 2009, but by 2010 they could be fighting for a division title if that starting trio continues to develop. (Caleb Peiffer) |
| 2008-09-15 14:00:00 | Have you had a chance to watch Jay Bruce much? He really struggled with contact and plate discipline over the summer, but seems to have turned a corner the last few weeks. What's a reasonable expectation for next year? Is .270/.340/.500 too optimistic? (Rick from Chicago) | Actually, I think that's just about exactly right. Don't worry too much, he's going to be a stud. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2008-07-17 13:00:00 | It seems like Jay Bruce's offense fell off a cliff and/or pitchers figured him out. Dump? (kristin from OR) | He's a young guy. I'm keeping him on my bench for now until he starts to work things out. It's a bit early for me to drop a talent like Bruce because of a few bad weeks...I'm playing wait and see for now, and I suggest you do the same. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2008-06-23 12:00:00 | Any insight into Jay Bruce's decline in production the past few weeks? (Corkedbat from Dallas) | Well, for openers, it would have been impossible for him to keep hitting at the pace in the first 10-14 days of his career. The major leagues aren't as easy as Bruce made it look at the start. He's still going to be an outstanding player, though. Just call his slide regression to the mean. (John Perrotto) |
| 2008-06-20 13:30:00 | Who'll be better for the rest of the year, Justin Upton or Jay Bruce? Who'll have a better career? (Mike from Queens) | Upton's contact issues are real, so I'd say Bruce in the short term. Long term, there aren't many properties more valuable than Jay Bruce, but Upton is one of them. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2008-06-20 13:30:00 | When it comes to the "business" of baseball, how much does the money invested in a player determine their ascent through the system? Who makes it faster, the non-drafted FA with better numbers in the critical areas or the bonus baby who is riding potential and ceiling? (adamtkay5 from Boston) | As far as I can tell, statistics don't really get you promoted through the minors no matter what your status. You move forward on scouting evaluations and age, for the most part. I think guys who play very well at Double-A or Triple-A create pressure on their organizations to promote them--I guess Clayton Kershaw and Jay Bruce are the most recent examples. Below that, though, you move based on how you're scouted. I'd be interested to hear Kevin Goldstein's opinion. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2008-06-17 15:00:00 | Jay Bruce: First ballot hall of famer or should they open a new "Hall of Bruce" just for him? (SC from Philadelphia) | ROFL, as they say. Hell of a start for the kid, to be sure. I look forward of seeing how well he handles the adjustments and the high expectations. (Jay Jaffe) |
| 2008-06-02 12:00:00 | Shouldn't Barry Bonds take off his Jay Bruce costume and let the world know what he is doing? (Scott from Greenville, SC) | As much as I think he can still help a lot of teams, I really think we've seen the end of Barry. There doesn't even seem to be any teams even kicking the tires on him. (John Perrotto) |
| 2008-06-02 12:00:00 | What do you think of Carlos Gomez's start this year(you hyped him pretty good last year) and do you think Jason Heyward is the next Jay Bruce? (Mike from Utica,NY) | I think Gomez is an outstanding talent who can be a superstar and he is already taking steps in that direction. Heyward is going to be a good one but I think probably a level or two below Bruce. (John Perrotto) |
| 2008-06-02 12:00:00 | Followup on the Jay Bruce Q: does he improve the Reds enough to make them relevant? They've dug a pretty big hole and some other teams in the division are overperforming. (Bill from New Mexico) | They won't be relevant this year But guys like him, Votto, Cueto and Volquez make the Reds a chance to be really good in the very near future. (John Perrotto) |
| 2008-05-30 13:00:00 | Jay Bruce comes up for auction next week in my fantasy league (points-based NL pool). The winner can keep his rights for the next six years. Worth breaking the bank on? And should I be concerned about Daric Barton (I already have his rights for the next six years)? Thanks! (Dennis from LA) | I stashed Bruce on my roster from draft day until now, so I'm all for spending on him if you get to keep him for six years. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2008-05-27 13:00:00 | What's the over/under on how many starts Jay Bruce gets before Dusty starts throwing Corey Patterson and Ryan Freel back out there in CF? (Rob from Bloomington, IL) | I think we need to focus less on Dusty Baker and more on their front office. If the front office has some idea what it's doing, they'll tell him "Jay Bruce will start at least 20 times a month. Or we'll be looking for a new manager. Any questions?" (Nate Silver) |
| 2008-05-27 13:00:00 | Hey Nate, Do you see any similarity between Jay Bruce and Delmon Young? #1 prospects with good power, avg, arm, but with poor plate discipline. Do you see Bruce turning out any better than Young? (Nick from NYC) | I think that's shortchanging Bruce a bit. His power has been a standard deviation or two better than Delmon's. (Nate Silver) |
| 2008-05-28 13:00:00 | Who loses out on the most playing time due to Jay Bruce finally getting the callup? (Ryan from Milwaukee) | Let's start easy and then warm up. Wouldn't Corey Patterson seem like the obvious choice, given that he's largely without redeeming value? Am I missing something here? (Steven Goldman) |
| 2008-04-29 14:00:00 | Drop Kearns for Jay Bruce? (31cornucopia from Trenton) | Yes, based on my thinking Bruce will be up before the ASB. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2008-04-17 13:00:00 | Who is the better pair: Jay Bruce & Joba Chamberlain or Adam Jones & Clayton Kershaw? And by how much? (Franklin Stubbs from (LA)) | Bruce and Chamberlain are the best hitting and pitching prospects in baseball, respectively. So they trump all other permutations. (Nate Silver) |
| 2008-03-31 13:00:00 | For 100 years, Juan Pierre would have been a perennial all-star and possible hall of famer. Now, he gets beat out for a job by Ethier -- who ain't exactly Jay Bruce -- despite a $10 million salary. The final nail in the anti-statheads' coffin. Congratulations. (Sam from Santa Ana) | Thanks. We're currently soliciting donations for a wreath... That said, I don't think we should start making plans to dance on Pierre's grave just yet. He'll be back as soon as an injury or slump gives Torre an excuse. I figure he'll still get 400 fairly useless at bats when all is said and done. (Steven Goldman) |
| 2008-03-25 14:00:00 | You knew this was coming: What sort of an impact do you see Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, and Clay Buccholz making this season? Is Buchholz the Sox 5th starter right out of the gate? (mikeduin from Seattle) | Even if this spring seems to have become one industry-wide case of Operation Prospect Wipeout, I think all three will get significant playing time this year. The Willy Aybar thing isn't going to last (Aybar might stick, but he's not enough of a bat to carry third base), Bruce cannot possibly get overlooked for too many months, while Buchholz will be an asset from here till September. (Christina Kahrl) |
| 2008-03-26 12:00:00 | Bryan, i'm a huge fan......Do you believe Jeff Clement has the goods to become a top tier MLB player? And just how good is Jay Bruce?
(Ricky from Iowa) | Thanks, Ricky. Depending on your definition of top tier player, yes, I think Clement can be that good. His power for a catcher could place him top 10 at that position, and that's top tier, to me. Bruce is the best player alive that will not open the season in the Major Leagues, and he's a more talented baseball player than a decent percentage of guys that managed to crack 25-man rosters. And nothing I wrote in that sentence is a hyperbole. (Bryan Smith) |
| 2008-03-26 12:00:00 | On your Jay Bruce comment...do you really think present day Jay Bruce is better than present day Barry Bonds? (Ameer from Bloomington, IN) | Ah, very nice, you caught me. I do not, Bonds is the exception to the rule. I do think Bruce is better than Sammy Sosa though, so there. (Bryan Smith) |
| 2008-03-19 13:00:00 | I have Jay Bruce and Evan Longoria on my team right now. Right now, I have Longoria penciled in as my 3B... but if he's sent down, I need to grab another 3B off the waiver wire. Seeing as how I can only stash one of the two players on my bench, which one should I drop? (Rob from Bloomington, IL) | Someone else. (Will Carroll) |
| 2008-03-18 17:00:00 | looking like the reds may actually go with patterson over jay bruce..is there any good reason you see for this? (gustavo from jax,fl) | As I've written -- and others have said as well -- Dusty Baker is the wrong man at the wrong time for the Reds job. If I had a gun to my head and my life depended on finding Baker a big league managing job, I would put him on a team with a strong veteran presence and no tough choices to make lineup wise. The only good that could come from it is that the Reds get off to such a horrendous start that he gets fired and the team hires someone who is ready to usher them into the next phase. That won't happen, though. They'll win just enough to keep Baker employed. (And Patterson does deserve a big league job -- just not at the expense of the likes of Jay Bruce.) (Jim Baker) |
| 2008-03-05 13:00:00 | Jay Bruce or Joey Votto? (Steve-o from Fort Myers) | Jay Bruce. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2008-02-07 14:00:00 | Joe, is there any excuse for not starting Jay Bruce on Opening Day? Is there anything left for him to learn in the minors? (Dan from Cincy) | Packing. Unpacking. Cliches. Differentiating among nice girls, groupies and...others. Sleeping in Holiday Inns.
The difference between the Cards and Reds is that the Reds really could catch lightning in a bottle this year, so playing Bruce from the start makes sense. Why give away wins with Norris Hopper? (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2008-01-31 13:00:00 | If someone had asked you two years ago who the #1 prospect would be in '08, would Jay Bruce have been in the discussion? That said, who's the #1 prospect in 2010? (y2joelicho from MN) | No. To answer your second question, I'll go way out on a limb and say Tim Beckham. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2008-01-31 13:00:00 | Have sent a few post trying to get your thoughts on Bruce's 08' season projection wise.. Don't want to go there? (Johnny from No love for Jay Bruce?) | Dude, I have 542 Unanswered questions, so don't take it personally. No love for Jay Bruce? I just ranked him No. 1! That's not enough love?
Assuming the Reds do the right thing and play Bruce from Day One next year, Otto the Pit Bull (tm) says he'll hit .287/.353/.491. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2008-01-28 13:00:00 | Please settle an argument for me. Based on their pure hitting abilty and nothing else, Travis Snider's ceiling is as good as Jay Bruce's. True or false? Thanks! (Ken from Albany) | False. Snider's build leaves his power potential a little behind Bruce. Snider is really built like Matt Stairs, and while his potential is certainly higher than that, it's a frame that is limiting. Jay Bruce is the top guy in the minor leagues, though, and there really aren't many more that Snider's offensive ceiling comes behind. (Bryan Smith) |
| 2008-01-28 13:00:00 | What is your reasoning for putting Jones ahead of Bruce? (yoink from trapped) | I don't think I did, I think you read that wrong. If not, I typed it wrong. Jay Bruce is the best prospect in baseball. Adam Jones is good, but he's not as good as Jay Bruce. Now I'm sure I didn't type it wrong. (Bryan Smith) |
| 2008-01-28 13:00:00 | Jay Bruce or the Cloverfield Monster? (Chris Anderson from The Nest) | A good last question, I think. You know, Chris, I think it's pretty sad that everyone in the U.S. have seen the Cloverfield monster (haven't they, by now?) and very few have seen Jay Bruce so far. I think once Bruce gets the following Abrams' Cloverfield has, it will become quite obvious: The Boss reigns supreme over Godzilla Jr. (Bryan Smith) |
| 2008-01-22 19:00:00 | Bill James' 2008 Handbook projections seem to have Jay Bruce "penciled in" in CF for the Reds his year. Not only that, but those projections are huge. The question is, was the move of Josh Hamilton made with the idea that it'll be much easier to return Ryan Freel to his super-sub role at midseason than it would've been to try to shoehorn Bruce in, or is management serious about giving him the job as long as he doesn't have a disappointing camp? The Braves arguably gave up a considerable amount (in Joey Devine) to buy Jordan Schafer a little more time at a higher level - would Bruce not benefit from at least a couple more months' development at a higher level? (clvclv from Marion, NC) | I'm a big fan of getting superior talent to the major leagues at an early age, especially in the case of position players (not so much with pitchers). What is Bruce going to do in Triple A in 2008 that he didn't already do? If he's going to sit on the bench most of the time, then, yes, send him back. I think he can play in the bigs now, albeit at a reduced rate for a year or so. (Jim Baker) |
| 2008-01-15 14:30:00 | Thoughts on Colby Rasmus next year. He hit .275 but if you throw out June and July when he was ill then your talking about a kid who had a .340 average in AA. Could you see him becoming a better all around player than Jay Bruce and a 8-10 time AS in center. (Mike from Utica,NY) | I really like Rasmus, though I'm not sure if he's going to be as good as I think Bruce will be. I'm also developing an irrational interest in Bruce's career though, after some of the work I've done this winter so far. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2008-01-23 13:00:00 | Jay Bruce and Andrew McCutchen, how close are they? (Manoog from Odessa) | We probably shouldn't be bundling those two together any more. Bruce is like the $300 hotel you stay at, and McCutchen is like the free USA Today that's waiting outside your doorstep. (Nate Silver) |
| 2008-01-09 13:00:00 | Will the following players still be at the same position in 3 years: (a) Jay Bruce--CF, (b) Ryan Braun--3B, and (c) Miguel Cabrera--3B. (jwr from Chicago) | A. Leaning towards yes, but not in five years.
B. No. C. No. (Kevin Goldstein) |
BP Roundtables
| Date | Roundtable Name | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-10-06 10:00:00 | 2010 Playoffs Day One | My season-opening prediction that Jay Bruce would be the NL MVP this year was admittedly insane, but I do think the kid is going to be a magastar soon. On a related note, kudos to the reader who responded to that prediction by saying he felt Joey Votto had a legitimate shot at the MVP. (David Laurila) |
| 2010-10-06 10:00:00 | 2010 Playoffs Day One | FYI, Scott Rolen, Jonny Gomes, Jay Bruce combined 3-for-19 against Roy during the regular season. (Jesse Behr) |
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BP Annual Player Comments
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