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Portrait of Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce RFReds

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2014 Rest-of-Season Projections (seasonal age 27)
PA AVG HR R RBI SB TAv WARP
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Birth Date4-3-1987
Height6' 3"
Weight215 lbs
Age27 years, 5 months, 28 days
BatsL
ThrowsL
5.72010
2.72011
3.82012
5.12013
0.42014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR TB BB SO HBP SF SH RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2008 CIN 21 108 452 413 63 105 17 1 21 187 33 110 4 2 0 52 4 6 .254 .314 .453 .260 11.0 -0.1 1.1
2009 CIN 22 101 387 345 47 77 15 2 22 162 38 75 2 1 1 58 3 3 .223 .303 .470 .262 12.9 4.2 1.7
2010 CIN 23 148 573 509 80 143 23 5 25 251 58 136 1 5 0 70 5 4 .281 .353 .493 .298 30.8 23.5 5.7
2011 CIN 24 157 664 585 84 150 27 2 32 277 71 158 5 2 1 97 8 7 .256 .341 .474 .281 28.2 -2.4 2.7
2012 CIN 25 155 633 560 89 141 35 5 34 288 62 155 4 7 0 99 9 3 .252 .327 .514 .294 27.0 8.8 3.8
2013 CIN 26 160 697 626 89 164 43 1 30 299 63 185 2 5 0 109 7 3 .262 .329 .478 .290 37.5 9.2 5.1
2014 CIN 27 137 545 493 71 107 21 1 18 184 44 149 2 5 1 66 12 3 .217 .281 .373 .245 6.8 -2.9 0.4
Career96639513531523887181171821648369968202735514829.251.323.467.278154.340.320.5

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G PA TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP BPF BRAA repLVL POS_ADJ FRAA BRR BVORP BWARP VORP WARP
2005 BIL Rk 17 81 .284 .270 .353 .407 .271 .318 95 2.3 2.7 -0.8 2.9 -1.8 1.6 0.4 1.6 0.4
2006 DYT A 117 498 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .351 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2007 SAR A+ 67 298 .328 .263 .334 .388 .259 .400 100 23.1 9.2 -0.3 4.5 0.9 32.3 3.6 32.3 3.6
2007 CHT AA 16 74 .369 .246 .318 .385 .257 .429 98 8.8 2.2 -0.1 -0.9 0.5 11.3 1.1 11.3 1.1
2007 LOU AAA 50 204 .331 .254 .327 .385 .253 .359 96 15.5 5.9 0 -1.7 -0.3 24.4 2.2 24.4 2.2
2008 CIN MLB 108 452 .260 .261 .325 .413 .259 .296 101 -0.2 13.1 -2.7 -0.1 -0.3 11.0 1.1 11.0 1.1
2008 LOU AAA 49 201 .376 .264 .330 .416 .269 .442 91 24.9 5.8 -0.5 1.9 -1.7 29.4 3.0 29.4 3.0
2009 CIN MLB 101 387 .262 .261 .329 .415 .263 .221 97 1 11.1 -4.1 4.2 -0.0 12.9 1.7 12.9 1.7
2009 LOU AAA 5 20 .217 .242 .315 .353 .230 .333 110 -1.8 1.1 -0.5 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.0 -0.4 -0.0
2010 CIN MLB 148 573 .298 .256 .323 .399 .267 .334 96 22.4 15.8 -5.8 23.5 -0.7 30.8 5.7 30.8 5.7
2011 CIN MLB 157 664 .281 .256 .318 .402 .262 .297 102 13.8 17.9 -6.6 -2.4 3.6 28.2 2.7 28.2 2.7
2012 CIN MLB 155 633 .294 .254 .317 .403 .261 .283 100 21.3 17.3 -6.4 8.8 -4.2 27.0 3.8 27.0 3.8
2013 CIN MLB 160 697 .290 .251 .315 .384 .256 .322 103 19.8 18.3 -6.8 9.2 1.9 37.5 5.1 37.5 5.1
2014 CIN MLB 137 545 .245 .248 .311 .379 .260 .269 98 -7.5 14.1 -5.3 -2.9 4.2 6.8 0.4 6.8 0.4

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG ISO TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2005 BIL Rk 81 16 18 2 0 4 13 11 22 2 2 .257 .358 .457 .200 .284 1.6 2.9 0.4
2006 DYT A 498 69 129 42 5 16 81 44 106 19 9 .291 .360 .516 .225 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2007 LOU AAA 204 28 57 12 2 11 25 15 48 2 2 .305 .360 .567 .262 .331 24.4 -1.7 2.2
2007 CHT AA 74 10 22 7 1 4 15 8 20 2 1 .333 .405 .652 .318 .369 11.3 -0.9 1.1
2007 SAR A+ 298 49 87 27 5 11 49 24 67 4 4 .325 .384 .586 .261 .328 32.3 4.5 3.6
2008 LOU AAA 201 34 67 9 5 10 37 12 45 8 1 .364 .403 .630 .266 .376 29.4 1.9 3.0
2008 CIN MLB 452 63 105 17 1 21 52 33 110 4 6 .254 .314 .453 .199 .260 11.0 -0.1 1.1
2009 LOU AAA 20 3 5 0 0 0 0 2 3 2 0 .278 .350 .278 .000 .217 -0.4 0.1 -0.0
2009 CIN MLB 387 47 77 15 2 22 58 38 75 3 3 .223 .303 .470 .246 .262 12.9 4.2 1.7
2010 CIN MLB 573 80 143 23 5 25 70 58 136 5 4 .281 .353 .493 .212 .298 30.8 23.5 5.7
2011 CIN MLB 664 84 150 27 2 32 97 71 158 8 7 .256 .341 .474 .217 .281 28.2 -2.4 2.7
2012 CIN MLB 633 89 141 35 5 34 99 62 155 9 3 .252 .327 .514 .263 .294 27.0 8.8 3.8
2013 CIN MLB 697 89 164 43 1 30 109 63 185 7 3 .262 .329 .478 .216 .290 37.5 9.2 5.1
2014 CIN MLB 545 71 107 21 1 18 66 44 149 12 3 .217 .281 .373 .156 .245 6.8 -2.9 0.4

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 1659 0.4702 0.5109 0.7285 0.7205 0.3242 0.8132 0.5614 0.2692
2009 1501 0.4624 0.4790 0.7691 0.6888 0.2986 0.8682 0.5726 0.2295
2010 2105 0.4584 0.4696 0.7419 0.6850 0.2868 0.8442 0.5352 0.2581
2011 2577 0.4455 0.4808 0.7450 0.6812 0.3198 0.8619 0.5449 0.2550
2012 2400 0.4496 0.4756 0.7406 0.6969 0.2945 0.8418 0.5450 0.2585
2013 2720 0.4596 0.4915 0.7046 0.7176 0.2993 0.8116 0.4864 0.2954
2014 2122 0.4642 0.4745 0.7167 0.6690 0.3052 0.8331 0.4957 0.2823
Career150840.45750.48260.73320.69420.30380.83840.53070.2661

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-08-13 2014-08-14 DTD 1 1 - General Medical Illness -
2014-05-05 2014-05-21 15-DL 16 13 Left Knee Surgery Meniscus 2014-05-05 -
2014-05-04 2014-05-04 DTD 0 0 Left Knee Soreness - -
2013-02-25 2013-02-28 Camp 3 0 Right Foot Contusion Heel - -
2011-07-21 2011-07-23 DTD 2 1 - General Medical Illness Dizziness - -
2011-06-26 2011-06-27 DTD 1 1 - General Medical Illness -
2011-05-18 2011-05-19 DTD 1 1 - General Medical Illness Flu -
2011-04-13 2011-04-15 DTD 2 1 - Groin Strain -
2011-03-02 2011-03-05 Camp 3 0 - General Medical Illness -
2010-08-31 2010-09-13 DTD 13 12 - Trunk Strain Ribs -
2009-07-12 2009-09-14 15-DL 64 57 Right Wrist Fracture -
2009-04-20 2009-04-21 DTD 1 1 Right Hand Soreness -
2009-04-18 2009-04-19 DTD 1 1 Right Hand Soreness -
2008-09-21 2008-09-23 DTD 2 2 Right Hand Contusion HBP -
2008-03-02 2008-03-07 Camp 5 0 Left Thigh Strain Quadriceps -
2007-10-20 2007-10-20 Off 0 0 - Thigh Strain Hamstring -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2017 CIN $1,000,000
2016 CIN $12,541,667
2015 CIN $12,041,667
2014 CIN $10,041,667
2013 CIN $7,541,667
2012 CIN $5,041,667
2011 CIN $2,791,667
2010 CIN $440,000
2009 CIN $417,500
YearsDescriptionSalary
5 yrPrevious$16,232,501
2011Current$10,041,667
6 yrPvs + Cur$26,274,168
3 yrFuture$25,583,334
9 yrTotal$51,857,502

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
5 y 125 dMatt Sosnick6 years/$51M (2011-16)

Details
  • 6 years/$51M (2011-16), plus 2017 club option. Signed extension with Cincinnati 12/10/10 (avoided arbitration). $0.25M signing bonus. 11:$2.75M, 12:$5M, 13:$7.5M, 14:$10M, 15:$12M, 16:$12.5M, 17:$13M club option, $1M buyout. Limited no-trade clause (may block deals to 8 clubs). Award bonuses.
  • 1 year/$0.44M (2010). Re-signed by Cincinnati 3/10.
  • 1 year/$0.4175M (2009). Re-signed by Cincinnati 2/21/09.
  • 1 year (2008). Re-signed 12/5/07 (minor-league contract). Contract purchased by Cincinnati 5/27/08.
  • Drafted by Cincinnati 2005 (1-12) (West Brook HS, Beaumont, Texas). $1.8M signing bonus.

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Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .241 .300 .453 .268
11 vs R (Multi) .267 .344 .502 .291
18 Split (Multi) .026 .044 .049 .024
19 LgAvg (Multi) .027 .038 .071 .034
30 vs L (2013) .246 .291 .443 .268
31 vs R (2013) .270 .347 .494 .295
38 Split (2013) .023 .056 .051 .027
39 LgAvg (2013) .026 .037 .071 .034

BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

Jay Bruce is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: September 29, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-09-29
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: September 25, 2014Chris Mosch2014-09-25
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: September 17, 2014Chris Mosch2014-09-17
The Week in Quotes: September 8-14Chris Mosch2014-09-15
The Week in Quotes: September 8-14Nick Bacarella2014-09-15
The Week in Quotes: September 8-14Nick Wheatley-Schaller2014-09-15
Notes About Baseball: Talking About MoneyRocco DeMaro2014-09-12
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: September 12, 2014Chris Mosch2014-09-12
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: September 3, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-09-03
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: September 2, 2014Chris Mosch2014-09-02
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 29, 2014Chris Mosch2014-08-29
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 21, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-08-21
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 19, 2014Chris Mosch2014-08-19
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 12, 2014Chris Mosch2014-08-12
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 11, 2014Chris Mosch2014-08-11
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 11, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-08-11
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 5, 2014Chris Mosch2014-08-05
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: July 28, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-07-28
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Sunday Morning DefendingDaniel Rathman2014-07-21
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Round Up The Usual Weekend SuspectsChris Mosch2014-07-14
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Round Up The Usual Weekend SuspectsDaniel Rathman2014-07-14
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: The Tigers' Roaring ComebackChris Mosch2014-07-09
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This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Weekend Wrap-Up, 7/7Daniel Rathman2014-07-07
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Weekend Wrap-Up, 6/30Daniel Rathman2014-06-30
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Five Hours and CountingChris Mosch2014-06-25
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: Looking at Values, Part 1: HittersMike Gianella2014-06-25
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BP Unfiltered: This Week in Bunting to Beat the Shift, 6/20Ben Lindbergh2014-06-20
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This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Wheeler Hooks the FishDaniel Rathman2014-06-20
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Wheeler Hooks the FishChris Mosch2014-06-20
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The Week in Quotes: May 5-11Morris Greenberg2014-05-12
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessDynasty Dynamics: NL Central U25 ListsCraig Goldstein2014-04-15
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Fantasy Mailbag: Strategic ThinkingBP Fantasy Staff2013-06-28
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This article requires BP Premium accessSkewed Left: The New, Just-as-Good Joey VottoZachary Levine2013-04-25
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This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: April 18, 2013Clint Chisam2013-04-18
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Hammerin' HalosDaniel Rathman2013-04-16
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Cuckoo for Coco (Crisp)Daniel Rathman2013-04-09
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessPre-Season Positional Rankings: Top 50 Fantasy Outfielders, Part One: 1-25Josh Shepardson2013-02-27
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Tater Trot Tracker: Wild Card Weekend Trot TimesLarry Granillo2012-10-08
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Head Games: The Other Thing R.A. Dickey Does WellWill Woods2012-10-02
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for September 22Larry Granillo2012-09-23
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for September 10Larry Granillo2012-09-11
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for September 5Larry Granillo2012-09-06
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for September 4Larry Granillo2012-09-05
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This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: From Prospect to Project to ProminenceBen Lindbergh2012-08-31
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 27Larry Granillo2012-08-28
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 23Larry Granillo2012-08-24
What You Need to Know: Monday, August 20Daniel Rathman2012-08-20
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Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 15Larry Granillo2012-08-16
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 14Larry Granillo2012-08-15
What You Need to Know: Wednesday, August 15Daniel Rathman2012-08-15
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 13Larry Granillo2012-08-14
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Winners, Losers of Trades That Didn't HappenDerek Carty2012-08-06
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for July 30Larry Granillo2012-07-31
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for July 29Larry Granillo2012-07-30
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for July 23Larry Granillo2012-07-24
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 26Larry Granillo2012-06-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessValue Picks: Starting Pitchers for 6/21/12Paul Sporer2012-06-21
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 19Larry Granillo2012-06-20
This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: The Cincinnati Reds and the Benefits of Being HomegrownBen Lindbergh2012-06-19
This article requires BP Premium accessPebble Hunting: Do You Know Your Hairstons?Sam Miller2012-06-18
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 16Larry Granillo2012-06-17
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 15Larry Granillo2012-06-16
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 7Larry Granillo2012-06-08
Future Shock Blog: Draft Day Dream CrushingKevin Goldstein2012-06-04
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 3Larry Granillo2012-06-04
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 27Larry Granillo2012-05-28
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 8 (or, The Josh Hamilton Show)Larry Granillo2012-05-09
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Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 5Larry Granillo2012-05-06
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for April 29Larry Granillo2012-04-30
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for April 28Larry Granillo2012-04-29
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for April 27Larry Granillo2012-04-28
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This article requires BP Premium accessThe Stats Go Marching In: Scoring Runs, RevisitedMax Marchi2012-04-27
This article requires BP Premium accessProspects Will Break Your Heart: Chat AccountabilityJason Parks2012-04-19
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for April 8Larry Granillo2012-04-09
Tater Trot Tracker: Opening Week Trot TimesLarry Granillo2012-04-08
The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, April 6Matthew Kory2012-04-06
Pebble Hunting: The PacersSam Miller2012-04-06
This article requires BP Premium accessWestern Front: Is Will Venable Underrated or Overrated? Probably.Geoff Young2012-04-03
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Comparing CBS, LABR, and Tout NL PricesJason Collette2012-04-02
This article requires BP Premium accessPebble Hunting: The Burden of Batting FourthSam Miller2012-03-28
Pre-Season Predictions: Staff Picks for 2012Baseball Prospectus2012-03-27
Prospectus Hit and Run: Rattling SABRs in the Desert, Part IJay Jaffe2012-03-23
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: The One Where They Sign ExtensionsR.J. Anderson2012-03-22
This article requires BP Premium accessPainting the Black: Naming the Next Breakout TeamR.J. Anderson2012-03-20
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The BP First Take: Monday, December 19Daniel Rathman2011-12-19
This article requires BP Premium accessCollateral Damage: The Season in Injuries: NL CentralCorey Dawkins2011-11-11
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Fantasy Rumor Mill for 10/20/11Derek Carty2011-10-20
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Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for September 27Larry Granillo2011-09-28
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Cincinnati RedsSteven Goldman2011-09-20
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Cincinnati RedsESPN Insider2011-09-20
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Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for September 15Larry Granillo2011-09-16
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for September 10Larry Granillo2011-09-11
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for September 4Larry Granillo2011-09-04
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 28Larry Granillo2011-08-29
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 14Larry Granillo2011-08-15
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 13Larry Granillo2011-08-14
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 12Larry Granillo2011-08-13
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for August 8Larry Granillo2011-08-09
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Red Hot or Dead Red?John Perrotto2011-07-20
Painting the Black: Mid-season Heroes and Goats, Part 1R.J. Anderson2011-07-12
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Who Am I?Jason Collette2011-07-06
All-Star Selections: Staff Picks for 2011Baseball Prospectus2011-07-01
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 28Larry Granillo2011-06-30
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Who Am I?Jason Collette2011-06-06
This article requires BP Premium accessDivide and Conquer, NL Central: Winners' WeekendLarry Granillo2011-06-06
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 1Larry Granillo2011-06-02
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Ain't it Grand(erson)?Jay Jaffe2011-06-02
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 31Larry Granillo2011-06-01
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: NL: The Valdez Non-DisasterJay Jaffe2011-05-31
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 29Larry Granillo2011-05-30
Divide and Conquer, NL East: The Three DisappointmentsMichael Jong2011-05-30
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 26Larry Granillo2011-05-27
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 25Larry Granillo2011-05-26
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Value Picks in the BullpenMike Petriello2011-05-26
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 23Larry Granillo2011-05-24
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: St. Louis SupremeTommy Bennett2011-05-24
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 22Larry Granillo2011-05-23
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 19Larry Granillo2011-05-20
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 10Larry Granillo2011-05-11
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Asian Equation: The Idiosyncrasy of IchiroMichael Street2011-05-11
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 9Larry Granillo2011-05-10
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 6Larry Granillo2011-05-07
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 5Larry Granillo2011-05-06
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 1Larry Granillo2011-05-02
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for April 29Larry Granillo2011-04-30
Baseball ProGUESTus: Fantasy Baseball's Founding FathersR. Emmet Sweeney2011-04-29
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Return of the Up-the-MiddlemenJay Jaffe2011-04-27
Pre-Season Predictions: Staff Picks for 2011Baseball Prospectus2011-03-31
Prospectus Hit List: NL Pre-Season Hit ListJay Jaffe2011-03-28
Wezen-Ball: Fun With Tater TrotsLarry Granillo2011-03-28
This article requires BP Premium accessTeam Injury Projection: Cincinnati RedsCorey Dawkins2011-03-22
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This article requires BP Premium accessDivide and Conquer, NL Central: Defensive DoldrumsLarry Granillo2011-03-18
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Focus: NL-only Draft ResultsMarc Normandin2011-03-16
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This article requires BP Premium accessDivide and Conquer, NL Central: Unwinding the Misery ClockLarry Granillo2011-03-11
This article requires BP Premium accessContractual Matters: NL Central Payroll ProjectionsJeff Euston2011-03-09
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Divide and Conquer, NL Central: Wait Till This Year?Larry Granillo2011-03-04
This article requires BP Premium accessChanging Speeds: Setting the Line, Part 2Ken Funck2011-03-01
BP Unfiltered: The Top 400, or KG's Past Top 100 ListsSteven Goldman2011-02-28
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Scoresheet Draft Prep, BP Kings, and YouRob McQuown2011-02-25
Fantasy Focus: Right Fielder RankingsMarc Normandin2011-02-24
BP Unfiltered: Four Suggestions: Cincinnati RedsDavid Laurila2011-02-17
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: Winning the Winter, NL EditionTommy Bennett2011-02-15
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Focus: Love Is All AroundMarc Normandin2011-02-09
Future Shock: Cincinnati Reds Top 11 ProspectsKevin Goldstein2011-02-07
Fantasy Beat: BP Scoresheet Early Draft PrepRob McQuown2011-02-07
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Rankings Review: Right FieldMarc Normandin2011-01-24
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Hot Spots: First Base, Third Base, Designated Hitter, and OutfieldRob McQuown2011-01-19
Transaction Analysis: Votto's Extension and Being Young in New YorkChristina Kahrl2011-01-18
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: A Hero by CircumstanceJohn Perrotto2010-12-21
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Prospectus Perspective: Yankee DramaChristina Kahrl2010-11-30
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The Week in Quotes: November 15-21Alex Carnevale2010-11-22
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Checking the Numbers: Sneaky Good in the Senior CircuitEric Seidman2010-11-10
Between The Numbers: Glove checksColin Wyers2010-11-09
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Perspective: Five Deals That Must HappenChristina Kahrl2010-11-09
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Playoff Prospectus: Sunday LDS Game ProjectionsEric Seidman2010-10-10
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One-Hoppers: Front Six LDS RostersChristina Kahrl2010-10-06
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This article requires BP Premium accessUnder The Knife: Is Ryan's Way Working?Will Carroll2010-09-17
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No Pepper: Against the FenceTommy Bennett2010-04-21
BP Unfiltered: Not Complaining About BABIPJohn Perrotto2010-04-18
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Don't Believe The HypeMarc Normandin2010-04-09
Pre-Season Predictions : Staff Picks for 2010Baseball Prospectus2010-04-04
BP Unfiltered: UPDATED NL Projected Opening Day RostersJohn Perrotto2010-04-01
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: More Prospect Wipeout!Christina Kahrl2010-03-24
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Hot Spots: OutfieldRob McQuown2010-03-24
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Prospectus Q&A: Terry ReynoldsDavid Laurila2010-01-26
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Prospectus Q&A: Ricky RomeroDavid Laurila2009-11-15
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Prospectus Idol Entry: Prospectus Game of the Week: Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue JaysBrian Oakchunas2009-06-28
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Prospectus Idol Entry: Andrew McCutchenBrian Cartwright2009-06-14
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Hot Stove Preview: NL CentralChristina Kahrl2008-11-18
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The 2008 Internet Baseball Awards: NL Results and Wrap-UpGreg Spira2008-11-05
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Lies, Damned Lies: The Ultimate Fantasy Draft (Part 2)Nate Silver2008-08-22
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Future Shock: Mock Draft 2008Kevin Goldstein2008-06-04
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Outfield RankingsMarc Normandin2008-02-27
Spring Training Preview: NL CentralJoe Sheehan2008-02-11
Top 100 Prospects: The Best of the BestKevin Goldstein2008-01-31
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Today: The TradeJoe Sheehan2008-01-30
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Dodging the ArbitratorChristina Kahrl2008-01-21
This article requires BP Premium accessEvery Given Sunday: Reconstruction in Slow MotionJohn Perrotto2008-01-20
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Reds Top 11 ProspectsKevin Goldstein2008-01-18
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Blue Jays Top 11 ProspectsKevin Goldstein2008-01-08
This article requires BP Premium accessEvery Given Sunday: The Arms RaceJohn Perrotto2007-12-09
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Mill: Winter Meetings, Day TwoBaseball Prospectus2007-12-04
This article requires BP Premium accessLies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, NL CentralNate Silver2007-10-12
Future Shock: Great Leaps Forward, National LeagueKevin Goldstein2007-09-07
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Two Steps Back, American LeagueKevin Goldstein2007-09-06
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: MailbagKevin Goldstein2007-09-02
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Focus: September ProspectsKenn Ruby2007-08-29
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Q&A: Joey VottoDavid Laurila2007-07-29
Future Shock: Risers and Fallers, National LeagueKevin Goldstein2007-07-10
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Focus: National League Trade TargetsJeff Erickson2007-07-02
Prospectus Today: Dunn DealsJoe Sheehan2007-06-15
Lies, Damned Lies: The PECOTA Top 100Nate Silver2007-04-27
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: State of the Systems, NL CentralKevin Goldstein2007-04-25
This article requires BP Premium accessWait 'Til Next Year: The Midwest CodeBryan Smith2007-04-17
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: High-A PreviewKevin Goldstein2007-04-08
This article requires BP Premium accessLies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Corner Outfield ProspectsNate Silver2007-03-23
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Monday Morning Ten Pack, 3/19/07Kevin Goldstein2007-03-19
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: 2007 Draft NotebookKevin Goldstein2007-03-01
Future Shock: Top 100 ProspectsKevin Goldstein2007-02-21
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Organizational RankingsKevin Goldstein2007-02-14
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Baltimore Orioles Top Ten ProspectsKevin Goldstein2007-01-05
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Cincinnati Reds Top Ten ProspectsKevin Goldstein2006-11-17
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Position Breakdown: Center FieldersKevin Goldstein2006-08-10
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Position Breakdown: Corner OutfieldersKevin Goldstein2006-08-03
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Division Roundup, NL Central, 7/18/06Kevin Goldstein2006-07-18
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Monday Morning Ten-Pack, 7/10/06Kevin Goldstein2006-07-10
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Midpoint National League ReportKevin Goldstein2006-06-23
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Division Roundup, NL Central, 5/31/06Kevin Goldstein2006-05-31
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: NL Central RoundupKevin Goldstein2006-04-18
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: State of the Systems: NL CentralKevin Goldstein2006-03-08


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think Jay Bruce reaches 30 homers again?
(Kevin from NJ)
If he's healthy, I don't see why he can't. He's only 27 years old and this is only one down year. Maybe it's the start of something, but at the moment I'm just going to write it off as a down year. (Mike Gianella)
2014-06-26 14:00:00 (link to chat)Welcome! What are your thoughts on Jay Bruce going forward? Are his decreasing FB% and increasing GB% a blip on the radar or time to run away?
(Tywin Lannister from The privy)
He's hitting .284/.341/.556 with a .896 OPS in the month of June. If he's available in your league, go get him before people start to notice. (J.P. Breen)
2014-05-29 19:30:00 (link to chat)Crazy to keep Bryant over Baez?
(utdavidson from Austin)
Crazy is strong ... let's just go with "wrong." I think Bryant is Jay Bruce. Baez could be legendary. (Ben Carsley)
2014-05-29 19:30:00 (link to chat)Alright last time I asked this question I got Price Fielder, but maybe I'll have better luck this time- your favorite buy-low candidates at this point? Thanks
(DanDaMan from Sea Cliff)
Sorry about that :( - let's go with Jay Bruce this time (Ben Carsley)
2014-02-26 19:00:00 (link to chat)I love Justin Upton, he has all the raw talent in the world. But I am worried about his plate discipline...He doesn't make a ton of contact. He whiffs a lot. Are we looking a Jay Bruce with a tiny bit of speed?
(Dylan from Rhode Island.)
You know, I still think an MVP year is still there even considering the godawful Whiff/Swing% numbers on Fastballs he posted last year. It's likely that he's a low average power guy who can steal 15 bases but I still believe, Dylan.

I still believe. (Mauricio Rubio)
2013-08-08 17:30:00 (link to chat)Would Josh Donaldson for Ryan Braun in a H2H points dynasty league be fair value? If not, what kind of value could Donaldson garner in this kind of format?
(Larry from Arizona)
Hi Larry:

Unless Braun's owner is really skeptical, that seems like a reach. Donaldson has been terrific, but I'm not sure I buy into a consistent 30 HR, 100 RBI guy with a good batting average. Think second tier OF with Donaldson (assuming you're aiming for an OF). Nelson Cruz and Jay Bruce are better targets. Even if their owners still think you're aiming high, you have a shot. Good luck! (Mike Gianella)
2013-07-29 11:00:00 (link to chat)Hunter Renfroe has looked pretty good thus far. Does he have a Jay Bruce ceiling?
(padremurph from San Diego)
Renfroe has tools, but Jay Bruce is a monster. I'm not sure many prospects in the minors have a Jay Bruce ceiling. (Zach Mortimer)
2013-05-22 18:00:00 (link to chat)How much longer do you think Matt Kemp will be recovering from this shoulder surgery? Will his power be back at all this season, or is he worth trading for someone like Jay Bruce?
(Kyle from Compton)
another 6 weeks or so. That front shoulder for hitters is huge and they need it to get their power. BJ Upton suffered from it in 2009, Luke Scott did last year, and Bagwell years before that. I'd deal him for Bruce and let someone else suffer through the frustration. (Jason Collette)
2013-05-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Paul,would you rate the following according to these stats.Jay Bruce, V.Wells,T.Hunter,J.Willingham,B.Gardner .I have Dl coming active and need to drop some. the stats are-HR,RBI,AVE,SB,RUNS,XBH.Thanks
(Chesty from New Bern NC)
Wells and Gardner are the first cuts from that group even with Bruce struggling. (Paul Sporer)
2013-05-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)What to do with Jay Bruce now ? Been holding on to him for some time and he has to be the most frustrating player to own.Is it time to trade him while he has good market value ?
(Spirou from Montreal)
If you have him in roto, set it & forget it. Too early to move on. This guy is one of those hit 4-5 HRs in a week types. (Paul Sporer)
2013-04-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)Tie ballgame last night in the 7th between CIN/PHI. Runners on 2nd and 3rd with nobody out, and Jay Bruce up. Do you walk him and pitch to Todd Frazier with the force outs, or take your chances with Bruce? Win Expectancy gives a 3% improvement to pitching to the batter, which to me would be negated by the downgrade in hitter from Bruce to Frazier.
(swarmee from Niceville, FL)
With one out, probably. Not with none. (Bret Sayre)
2013-04-18 14:00:00 (link to chat)Where is Jay Bruce's power?!?!?!
(jordan from osu)
Hey, jordan. I wouldn't worry about Bruce yet, at least from a power perspective. He's hitting more liners and grounders than deep flies, and if those rates stabilize at their career norms, the home runs will come. He's a fantasy buy-low candidate for me if the power outage continues for another week or two and redraft owners get impatient. (Daniel Rathman)
2013-03-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)In a 5X5 Roto Auction Keeper League, would you keep Jay Bruce at $32 and or Jon Niese at $9. (Some HUGE Mets fans in the league who'd pay 15-17 for Niese.)
(Jeff from Manahawkin, NJ)
Then couldn't you trade Niese to someone who thinks he's a bargain? That might be best value for what you get in return. Exploit the market! (Harry Pavlidis)
2012-07-30 13:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think of Jay Bruce's prospects the rest of 2012? How would you rank him among RF for ROS and in a keeper league?
(SpittinTeeth from Dentist's Office)
I like Bruce the rest of the year, and absolutely love him in keeper leagues. He'd rank near the top of the RF heap in keeper/dynasty formats. His walk rate is in line with his recent seasons, his strikeout rate is down a tiny bit, and his ISO is up. Most owners are likely frustrated with his .242 batting average, but be patient. His .261 BABIP is 26 points lower than his .287 mark for his career, in spite of a career best line drive rate, 21.3 percent, and a career low pop-up rate, 5.0 percent. Buy Bruce now! (Josh Shepardson)
2012-07-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Geoff, Should Reds fans just accept Jay Bruce for who he is? Or, will he at some point acquire plate discipline and/or quit trying to pull everything? Also, why does the Reds manager continue to wear those silly wristbands?
(10graham43 from Louisville, KY)
This is a horrible comp, but Bruce is sort of taking the Eric Chavez path. Early success creates expectations. When he turns out to be very good instead of great, people are disappointed. Most players aren't perennial MVP candidates. Bruce has been named to two All-Star teams and he's 25 years old. I'd suggest being happy with what he is now and being pleasantly surprised if he develops further. It could happen, but removing the expectation makes life easier for everyone.

As for the wristbands, that's just Dusty being Dusty. (Geoff Young)
2012-05-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jay Bruce: Another hot month (see May 2011) or is the long-awaiting breakout finally here?
(RMR from Chicago)
Bruce isnít going to hit .300/.339/.630 all season. I could see him out-producing last seasonís line (.256/.341/.474), but I think itís unrealistic to expect any player to hold a 950-plus OPS all season when he hasnít shown that ability before. (R.J. Anderson)
2012-01-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Has Jay Bruce hit a wall in his development, or do you see a further breakout from him?
(PJ from Bronx)
I like Jay Bruce, and I do think that a further breakout for him is in the cards. It's hard to bank on a guy at the level of Bruce to take one more step forward, and I wouldn't pay for it, but it's definitely within the realm of possibility and something I would keep in mind when contemplating him on draft day. (Derek Carty)
2011-04-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)I have Jay Bruce and Nelson Cruz, both just kind of disappointing so far. How much should i readjust what i'm expecting from them?
(Tony from Albuquerque)
We're not even out of April yet. Without injury, reassessing much of anything is premature, especially for players you expect to be great.

My go-to example for this now is David Ortiz in 2010. He had a 524 OPS in April of 2010, and finished at .270/.370/.529 with an 899 OPS. (Marc Normandin)
2011-04-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Jay Bruce's early struggles? Seems he forgot how to lay off that low/away breaking ball. Second half of last year he wanted nothing to do with it. Is it just a matter of getting into a rhythm?
(J from NY)
I think he will be fine, but his balance looks off and pitch recognition skills aren't sharp at the present. I picked him to win the NL MVP, so he needs to starting chopping. (Jason Parks)
2011-04-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)What's going on with Jay Bruce? When is he going to bounce into the MVP form that all the BP'ers have expected from him?
(SnakeDoctor18 from New York, NY)
I wasn't one of the BPers who predicted an MVP season, but things will get much better for Bruce, and soon. (Ben Lindbergh)
2011-03-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)you
(reza from reza)
No, you!

Re. Jay Bruce, just consider these two facts... he's still only 23 years old, and he ranked 3rd in MLB last year in homers by lefty hitters off lefty pitchers. I think he's going to be a superstar (think Adam Dunn with fewer walks but a little more AVG and a few SB's, and decent defense), and maybe even this year. (Cory Schwartz)
2011-02-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jay Bruce - does the breakout happen this year?
(Matthew from OH)
Well, it sort of happened last season, but yes....it gets even better in 2011. (Jason Parks)
2011-01-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)What do you expect from Jay Bruce this year? Break out candidate?
(peachycream from Chicago)
This is the year! Buy on Bruce! He hit .338/.418/.699 in the last two months, and while I certainly don't expect that to continue, I do think he'll finally be a serious fantasy player. (Marc Normandin)
2011-01-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Can Jay Bruce be this year's Carlos Gonzalez? You know, that mid round OF who vaults to the elite the next year. If things bounce right, I could see Bruce hitting 40 bombs this year.. but 30+ for sure.
(Nick from Denver)
Without the Coors benefit of course, but yeah, he should outperform his draft position in loads of leagues. (Marc Normandin)
2011-01-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)I've got an outfield heavy team in an 11 team, standard 5x5 league with 5 keepers (boring, I know). I'm currently thinking David Wright, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Justin Verlander and Matt Latos. But I also have Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus and Cole Hamels as options. I've recently had the skill of kicking ass drafting starting pitching in the 9th-15th rounds, but who knows if that continues... Am I keeping the worst OF in Upton just because of hype? Which five of those eight do you keep?
(Adam from Philly)
I would see what you can get in a trade for Upton--I think he turns into something great, but you might find someone who buys him on the hype of his turning into even more. I would keep Bruce over Kemp though. Verlander/Latos is the right call for the SP, thanks to their respective parks. (Marc Normandin)
2011-01-03 14:00:00 (link to chat)Do you get the feeling that Jay Bruce could be on the verge of a monster season?
(Tom from OH)
I do. (Kevin Goldstein)
2010-11-09 14:00:00 (link to chat)Jay Bruce is going to be as good in 2011 as everyone projected he would be three years ago, isn't he?
(MEDAFAP from CA)
Like the chances. What's with all the Reds questions? (Kevin Goldstein)
2010-10-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)The Sky is Blue; The Mets are a mess; Jay Bruce is a ____;
(JD Sussman from Torts Class)
beast. Jay Bruce is a beast. (Marc Normandin)
2010-09-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)Next 5 years, Jay Bruce or Joey Votto?
(Rick from Chicago)
Votto. He does have a few years on Bruce, so 5 years from now Votto will have reached the wrong side of 30, while Bruce will still be squarely in his prime, but I'm going to go with the guy who's already a presumptive MVP. For the 5 years after that, I might change my answer. (Ben Lindbergh)
2010-08-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Going forward in a standard league w/ OBP, SLG and OPS - Jay Bruce, Dexter Fowler, Coco Crisp or JD Drew?
(Jeff from South Jersey)
I like Fowler the least of all of those guys right now. Drew is the safe pick, Bruce the upside pick, and Crisp is hitting as well as he ever did before he busted his finger open in his first year with Boston (and has 22 steals!) to boot. So it depends on what you prefer/need more of--safety, upside, or if you want to get some steals out of it while you're at it. (Marc Normandin)
2010-08-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Woulde you rather play Miggy Montero or Jay Bruce in an OBP league in a UTIL sloit? Would you drop or bench the other player? (I could take Lyons now). Thanks.
(Will from Mactaquac)
Montero will probably have the better OBP, but he's going to have fewer PA than Bruce, so you may lose out in some counting categories. I still have a lot of faith in Bruce going forward, and I'm not sure how I feel about a catcher in a utility slot unless he's a beast at the plate. Is it keeper or single year? (Marc Normandin)
2010-08-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)At what point in a player's career does it become detrimental to send a guy down to AAA for a refresher course (I'm thinking about Jay Bruce here)?
(Scott from DC)
Well, I strongly advocated it for Beckham this summer, if that gives you an idea.

Bruce, IMO, hasn't played poorly enough to warrant that treatment, not to mention the Reds don't have any better plan. I don't think he's so far along where you couldn't try it, just that these circumstances don't fit.

Didn't the Braves send Francaeiour down last year? (Joe Sheehan)
2010-07-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Andy Marte destined to haunt BP forever? Your #1 overall prospect ranking led me to keep Marte on my keeper team for three years before finally cutting ties. Now I'm gun-shy about Jay Bruce, whom I also hold.
(Daniel from Ether)
To be fair, I think the entire world thought Andy Marte was the Next Big Thing. Everyone except the Braves and Red Sox were collectively wrong about Marte. (Marc Normandin)
2010-05-11 16:30:00 (link to chat)Go Phils. I have an abundance of pitchers and a need for outfielders in a 16 team mixed league. Should I try to trade Wade Davis for Jay Bruce or Jason Kubel? These teams just can't put up a good phight against the Phils these days.
(choms57 from philadelphia)
Go Phils.

It's kind of hard for me to evaluate a fantasy trade because I don't have a sense of how valuable these guys are in a given league. I do think Wade Davis is playing over his head. If he doesn't stop issuing walks, he's going to start allowing a lot more runs when his share of hits starting falling in. Jay Bruce finally has hit BABIP up to normal, but he's probably got a little more power than this. I think his numbers are starting to look normal again, though. Kubel like I said earlier just isn't hitting the ball as hard as he should, so he might need a little time to work out kinks. (Matt Swartz)
2010-04-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)may be a better question for fantasy guys/ i was just offered Ryan Howard for Prince Fielder. Shoul.d I do it?
(keentower from MA)
I wouldn't, but then again, I predicted Jay Bruce to win this year's NL MVP, so I might not be the right person to ask. (David Laurila)
2010-03-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jay, who are your pet players this year? Guys you expect to put themselves on the map or take an underrated step forward?
(slim from Fairfield Cty)
You know, for some reason the team I always come back to for questions like this is the Reds. Not that I EXPECT their young guys to take a step forward so much as that I'm interested to see if they can. To see if pitchers like Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake or Aroldis Chapman can succeed in that ballpark, under Dusty. To see if Jay Bruce finally lives up to the hype, if Chris Dickerson can hold down a regular corner spot. I don't actually root for the Reds, but I've been intrigued by their collection of talent for years. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-02-17 16:00:00 (link to chat)Tommy, Who are some players that you hope to add to all your fantasy teams this year (mid to late round)? Thanks, Dan
(dandaman from Sea Cliff)
I got a couple questions to this effect. I think Cody Ross remains underrated, especially if you play in a league with individual outfield positions. I think Rafael Soriano is a great closer for where he is going in drafts. I'm big on a bounce back from Jay Bruce as well. (Tommy Bennett)
2010-02-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)What young player do you think takes the biggest step forward this year for fantasy purposes...Rasmus, Bruce, McCuthchen, or A.Jones?
(kgoodson3 from New Orleans)
Jay Bruce. I expected him to struggle in the first half, and he did. I'm excited to see what he does now that he's healthy and has some more experience against MLB pitching behind him.

I'm listening to 3 Inches of Blood. What does everyone else have on? (Marc Normandin)
2010-02-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)I'm in a NL only, auction, keeper league. We can keep up 15 players off of our 25 man roster. budgets size is $285. I have both Jay Bruce ($15) and Jonathan Sanchez ($10) coming into the final year of their contracts. Neither haas been great (or average) to this point, but I believe their best days are ahead. My question is: do I keep them at their present price for this year only or do I put them back and try to get them back (at probably similar salary) in order to have them for 2 additional years. Thanks for commenting and chatting.
(jaysbluejays from pdx)
I would think it might be tough to guarantee you'll get Bruce back--you may end up starting a little bidding war with someone else who likes him and pay about the same anyways. Is that worth the risk of losing him? Sanchez you may be able to swing with that strategy though. (Marc Normandin)
2010-02-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jay, can you give us your prediction for Jay Bruce this year? Obviously his struggles last year were in part due to horrendously bad luck, but he also had some approach issues which he seemed to correct when he came back at the end of the year. Is .270/.360/.540 unrealistic?
(Rick from Chicago)
I'd be more comfortable projecting him for closer to a .340 OBP and about a .520 SLG, but the raw power is there, and the ballpark will help. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-02-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)What are your thoughts on the 2010 Reds? Any chance they contend in 2010?
(Brandon from Charleston, WV)
No. I think PECOTA is dead wrong on that team. The division isn't great, so it could be like a couple years ago where they "stay in it" but they'll need Stubbs to establish himself, for Jay Bruce to be a real star rather than pretty good, and Joey Votto to take the next step. They're counting on Scott Rolen and a Dusty Baker pitching staff to stay healthy so ... (Will Carroll)
2009-12-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the chat, Joe. What do you foresee in 2010 for Jay Bruce?
(Reds99 from California)
I'm willing to write off his '09 as an injury year, but I am concerned that he's going to be less and average and OBP guy and more a low-BA power bat with good defense. Tom Brunansky, maybe? (Joe Sheehan)
2009-10-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)When can you declare a former top prospect a bust? Are Delmon Young, Alex Gordon, and Jay Bruce busts?
(Ron from Vancouver)
I think a player's first year of arbitration eligibility is a good point of reckoning, because it's at that point where they start to cost real money instead of something closer to the major league minimum. Not that it's the final word, but it's certainly when a team has to start considering how much future investment a player is worth.

By that token, I'd call Young a bust. Gordon's at three years of service, too, but he gets a pass because of injury. Bruce has at least another year before that point is reached, because he's probably going to be short of where the Super Two line is in 2010. (Jay Jaffe)
2009-08-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Did Jay Bruce break a bone in his wrist or arm? Is there a comp for this one? Will it effect his prodigious pull power?
(mwball75 from Cincinnati, OH)
Looks like arm. I'm having to read tea leaves on this one, but seems as if it's along the lines of Evan Longoria last year. (Will Carroll)
2009-07-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)You think the Cubs can win the NL Central? Thoughts on Randy Wells?
(Salmon from Chitown)
Can? Certainly. Will they? Hmmm.....I'm not sure who to peg as the likely winner. I know that I irked a lot of Cardinals fans at the beginning of the season when I picked them to finish near the bottom of the division. Clearly, they are a better team than I envisioned, and I readily admit to missing something. The Brewers MIGHT have enough, and presumably are exploring Halladay options. Without the Jay Bruce injury, I think the Reds would have contended late into September. So, my final answer....the Cubs probably fall short. (David Laurila)
2009-05-21 14:00:00 (link to chat)Who will be the best in 5 years out of these guys: Justin Upton, Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun, Travis Snider?
(Mike from Utica,NY)
Upton, with Longoria close behind. Upton should be in the home-run contest; he hits ridiculously impressive shots. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-04-13 14:00:00 (link to chat)Should I be worried about Jay Bruce?
(stewbies from Rochester)
He certainly didn't have a great year last year except for those first couple weeks, but come onhe's 22 years old. He needs time to grow and to adjust before anyone should start worrying about him. (Jay Jaffe)
2009-04-16 13:00:00 (link to chat)The Jay Bruce "Make a Splash, Then Stay All Wet" Award
(Scott from Detroit)
"Make A Splash, Oh No I Can't Swim" award also works. Don't worry, we can take his floaties off someday. (Marc Normandin)
2009-02-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Since I can only keep one in my (points based) fantasy league, who is more likely to be a truly SPECIAL player this year: Liriano or Jay Bruce? I'm sure they'll both be good, but who am I least likely to regret not keeping around?
(Jed from San Francisco)
Liriano. He's closer to his potential upside, and you can replace offensive stats more easily than pitching ones. Keep him. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-02-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jay Bruce over/under 30 homers in 2009?
(Brandon from Charleston)
I would have no confidence in either side of that bet. Gun at my head, I'll say under, as he picks up some BA and doubles. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-02-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Having answered the Kershaw/Joba Q, same thing for outfielders: who has the better year, Jay Bruce or Colby Rasmus? Or is Raz going to continue to be behind the TLR eight-ball and get stuck in the minors again?
(Bill from New Mexico)
Bruce just because he's more certain to play. The Cardinals aren't doing the best job of aligning their talent at the moment, and I still think they should solve that by trading Ryan Ludwick for a middle-infield solution. Maybe that deal isn't available, but I'd try like hell to make it happen. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-02-11 14:00:00 (link to chat)If the Reds bring in a new left fielder, how does Dickerson rate in CF? Could a Dickerson/Taveras platoon work?
(birkem3 from Dayton, OH)
I'm not sold on either guy. If I were Walt Jocketty, and I'm not, I would play Jay Bruce in center and find two corner guys who can hit. There were a lot of those guys out there this winter and I think the Reds whiffed on a chance to become the one legitimate challenger to the Cubs in the NL Central. (John Perrotto)
2009-02-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)Which absurdly young stud has the better '09: Jay Bruce, Justin Upton?
(Andrew from Ohio)
I still cannot see Bruce's name without getting ELO's "Don't Bring Me Down" stuck in my head. So thanks, Andrew. Thanks a lot. My instinct is Upton based on his strong September, though Bruce was also quite good that month. If I say I think they'll both be good, is that a cop-out? If I had long-term chips, I'd bet Upton. (Steven Goldman)
2009-01-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jay Bruce or Joey Votto? Who will have the most fantasy production for the 2009 season?
(bianchiveloce from Anderson, SC)
Ooh, good question. You've got the high-upside potential star who struggled and produced at random times in Bruce, and you've got Votto, who is definitely the safe pick for production out of the two. I think there's a good chance that Votto outproduces Bruce over the long run in 2009, but only because it takes Bruce some time to dig in and turn a corner. Once he turns, he's The Man. (Marc Normandin)
2008-12-04 13:30:00 (link to chat)Where do you see Jay Bruce winding up defensively? Can he do an adequate job in CF or will he shift to RF as soon as the Reds get a CF? For career value, would you rather have Bruce or David Price? Thanks.
(KerryFam4 from Atlanta)
My natural antipathy towards pitchers will always make me answer "Bruce," although Price is the guy who gives me pause in that. I see Bruce as a right fielder who can and will play center until the better option emerges. He's not going to hurt the Reds out there, but he would be a plus right fielder, maybe win some awards. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-12-05 14:00:00 (link to chat)Do you Reds fans finally have reason for optimism with a solid young core of Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Phillips, Chris Dickerson, Johnny Cueto, and Edinson Volquez?
(Brandon from Charleston)
Absolutely, there's reason for optimism so long as Dusty Baker doesn't mangle those arms.

I had the Reds as my sleeper team last year and while they didn't get there, most of the guys you mentioned are fascinating, with a ton of upside. The series I watched most closely all year long was when the Reds came to Yankee Stadium in late June.

I don't see the Reds with a shot at the 2009 NL Central but I think third place is a possibility with the right moves this winter. One of which might be taking out a restraining order against Baker from coming to the ballpark. (Jay Jaffe)
2008-10-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)With quality young talent like Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Joey Votto, and others, do you think the Reds are close to contending?
(smitty25039 from Charleston)
If you haven't already, check out Kevin Goldstein's article on which teams might be the "next Rays" in the NL. http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8203
The Reds are close, but as Goldstein says, the outlook is "semi-bright, but not perfect." One big problem is the outfield corners; they've got nobody now without Dunn, and it doesn't look like minor league center fielder Drew Stubbs is quite ready to make enough impact with the bat to move Jay Bruce to a corner. According to Goldstein, Cincinnati is also pretty weak in pitching prospects beyond the group that already hit the majors this season, and the 2008 results from Homer Bailey were discouraging. Still, Cueto and Volquez are a fantastic young duo, and I'm pretty high on Ramon Ramirez, too, who pitched well in September and has a nasty changeup. Not in 2009, but by 2010 they could be fighting for a division title if that starting trio continues to develop. (Caleb Peiffer)
2008-09-15 14:00:00 (link to chat)Have you had a chance to watch Jay Bruce much? He really struggled with contact and plate discipline over the summer, but seems to have turned a corner the last few weeks. What's a reasonable expectation for next year? Is .270/.340/.500 too optimistic?
(Rick from Chicago)
Actually, I think that's just about exactly right. Don't worry too much, he's going to be a stud. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-07-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)It seems like Jay Bruce's offense fell off a cliff and/or pitchers figured him out. Dump?
(kristin from OR)
He's a young guy. I'm keeping him on my bench for now until he starts to work things out. It's a bit early for me to drop a talent like Bruce because of a few bad weeks...I'm playing wait and see for now, and I suggest you do the same. (Marc Normandin)
2008-06-23 12:00:00 (link to chat)Any insight into Jay Bruce's decline in production the past few weeks?
(Corkedbat from Dallas)
Well, for openers, it would have been impossible for him to keep hitting at the pace in the first 10-14 days of his career. The major leagues aren't as easy as Bruce made it look at the start. He's still going to be an outstanding player, though. Just call his slide regression to the mean. (John Perrotto)
2008-06-20 13:30:00 (link to chat)Who'll be better for the rest of the year, Justin Upton or Jay Bruce? Who'll have a better career?
(Mike from Queens)
Upton's contact issues are real, so I'd say Bruce in the short term. Long term, there aren't many properties more valuable than Jay Bruce, but Upton is one of them. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-06-20 13:30:00 (link to chat)When it comes to the "business" of baseball, how much does the money invested in a player determine their ascent through the system? Who makes it faster, the non-drafted FA with better numbers in the critical areas or the bonus baby who is riding potential and ceiling?
(adamtkay5 from Boston)
As far as I can tell, statistics don't really get you promoted through the minors no matter what your status. You move forward on scouting evaluations and age, for the most part. I think guys who play very well at Double-A or Triple-A create pressure on their organizations to promote them--I guess Clayton Kershaw and Jay Bruce are the most recent examples. Below that, though, you move based on how you're scouted. I'd be interested to hear Kevin Goldstein's opinion. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-06-17 15:00:00 (link to chat)Jay Bruce: First ballot hall of famer or should they open a new "Hall of Bruce" just for him?
(SC from Philadelphia)
ROFL, as they say. Hell of a start for the kid, to be sure. I look forward of seeing how well he handles the adjustments and the high expectations. (Jay Jaffe)
2008-06-02 12:00:00 (link to chat)Shouldn't Barry Bonds take off his Jay Bruce costume and let the world know what he is doing?
(Scott from Greenville, SC)
As much as I think he can still help a lot of teams, I really think we've seen the end of Barry. There doesn't even seem to be any teams even kicking the tires on him. (John Perrotto)
2008-06-02 12:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think of Carlos Gomez's start this year(you hyped him pretty good last year) and do you think Jason Heyward is the next Jay Bruce?
(Mike from Utica,NY)
I think Gomez is an outstanding talent who can be a superstar and he is already taking steps in that direction. Heyward is going to be a good one but I think probably a level or two below Bruce. (John Perrotto)
2008-06-02 12:00:00 (link to chat)Followup on the Jay Bruce Q: does he improve the Reds enough to make them relevant? They've dug a pretty big hole and some other teams in the division are overperforming.
(Bill from New Mexico)
They won't be relevant this year But guys like him, Votto, Cueto and Volquez make the Reds a chance to be really good in the very near future. (John Perrotto)
2008-05-30 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jay Bruce comes up for auction next week in my fantasy league (points-based NL pool). The winner can keep his rights for the next six years. Worth breaking the bank on? And should I be concerned about Daric Barton (I already have his rights for the next six years)? Thanks!
(Dennis from LA)
I stashed Bruce on my roster from draft day until now, so I'm all for spending on him if you get to keep him for six years. (Marc Normandin)
2008-05-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)What's the over/under on how many starts Jay Bruce gets before Dusty starts throwing Corey Patterson and Ryan Freel back out there in CF?
(Rob from Bloomington, IL)
I think we need to focus less on Dusty Baker and more on their front office. If the front office has some idea what it's doing, they'll tell him "Jay Bruce will start at least 20 times a month. Or we'll be looking for a new manager. Any questions?" (Nate Silver)
2008-05-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Nate, Do you see any similarity between Jay Bruce and Delmon Young? #1 prospects with good power, avg, arm, but with poor plate discipline. Do you see Bruce turning out any better than Young?
(Nick from NYC)
I think that's shortchanging Bruce a bit. His power has been a standard deviation or two better than Delmon's. (Nate Silver)
2008-05-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who loses out on the most playing time due to Jay Bruce finally getting the callup?
(Ryan from Milwaukee)
Let's start easy and then warm up. Wouldn't Corey Patterson seem like the obvious choice, given that he's largely without redeeming value? Am I missing something here? (Steven Goldman)
2008-04-29 14:00:00 (link to chat)Drop Kearns for Jay Bruce?
(31cornucopia from Trenton)
Yes, based on my thinking Bruce will be up before the ASB. (Marc Normandin)
2008-04-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who is the better pair: Jay Bruce & Joba Chamberlain or Adam Jones & Clayton Kershaw? And by how much?
(Franklin Stubbs from (LA))
Bruce and Chamberlain are the best hitting and pitching prospects in baseball, respectively. So they trump all other permutations. (Nate Silver)
2008-03-31 13:00:00 (link to chat)For 100 years, Juan Pierre would have been a perennial all-star and possible hall of famer. Now, he gets beat out for a job by Ethier -- who ain't exactly Jay Bruce -- despite a $10 million salary. The final nail in the anti-statheads' coffin. Congratulations.
(Sam from Santa Ana)
Thanks. We're currently soliciting donations for a wreath... That said, I don't think we should start making plans to dance on Pierre's grave just yet. He'll be back as soon as an injury or slump gives Torre an excuse. I figure he'll still get 400 fairly useless at bats when all is said and done. (Steven Goldman)
2008-03-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)You knew this was coming: What sort of an impact do you see Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, and Clay Buccholz making this season? Is Buchholz the Sox 5th starter right out of the gate?
(mikeduin from Seattle)
Even if this spring seems to have become one industry-wide case of Operation Prospect Wipeout, I think all three will get significant playing time this year. The Willy Aybar thing isn't going to last (Aybar might stick, but he's not enough of a bat to carry third base), Bruce cannot possibly get overlooked for too many months, while Buchholz will be an asset from here till September. (Christina Kahrl)
2008-03-26 12:00:00 (link to chat)Bryan, i'm a huge fan......Do you believe Jeff Clement has the goods to become a top tier MLB player? And just how good is Jay Bruce?
(Ricky from Iowa)
Thanks, Ricky. Depending on your definition of top tier player, yes, I think Clement can be that good. His power for a catcher could place him top 10 at that position, and that's top tier, to me. Bruce is the best player alive that will not open the season in the Major Leagues, and he's a more talented baseball player than a decent percentage of guys that managed to crack 25-man rosters. And nothing I wrote in that sentence is a hyperbole. (Bryan Smith)
2008-03-26 12:00:00 (link to chat)On your Jay Bruce comment...do you really think present day Jay Bruce is better than present day Barry Bonds?
(Ameer from Bloomington, IN)
Ah, very nice, you caught me. I do not, Bonds is the exception to the rule. I do think Bruce is better than Sammy Sosa though, so there. (Bryan Smith)
2008-03-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)I have Jay Bruce and Evan Longoria on my team right now. Right now, I have Longoria penciled in as my 3B... but if he's sent down, I need to grab another 3B off the waiver wire. Seeing as how I can only stash one of the two players on my bench, which one should I drop?
(Rob from Bloomington, IL)
Someone else. (Will Carroll)
2008-03-18 17:00:00 (link to chat)looking like the reds may actually go with patterson over jay bruce..is there any good reason you see for this?
(gustavo from jax,fl)
As I've written -- and others have said as well -- Dusty Baker is the wrong man at the wrong time for the Reds job. If I had a gun to my head and my life depended on finding Baker a big league managing job, I would put him on a team with a strong veteran presence and no tough choices to make lineup wise. The only good that could come from it is that the Reds get off to such a horrendous start that he gets fired and the team hires someone who is ready to usher them into the next phase. That won't happen, though. They'll win just enough to keep Baker employed. (And Patterson does deserve a big league job -- just not at the expense of the likes of Jay Bruce.) (Jim Baker)
2008-03-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jay Bruce or Joey Votto?
(Steve-o from Fort Myers)
Jay Bruce. (Marc Normandin)
2008-02-07 14:00:00 (link to chat)Joe, is there any excuse for not starting Jay Bruce on Opening Day? Is there anything left for him to learn in the minors?
(Dan from Cincy)
Packing. Unpacking. Cliches. Differentiating among nice girls, groupies and...others. Sleeping in Holiday Inns.

The difference between the Cards and Reds is that the Reds really could catch lightning in a bottle this year, so playing Bruce from the start makes sense. Why give away wins with Norris Hopper? (Joe Sheehan)
2008-01-31 13:00:00 (link to chat)If someone had asked you two years ago who the #1 prospect would be in '08, would Jay Bruce have been in the discussion? That said, who's the #1 prospect in 2010?
(y2joelicho from MN)
No. To answer your second question, I'll go way out on a limb and say Tim Beckham. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-01-31 13:00:00 (link to chat)Have sent a few post trying to get your thoughts on Bruce's 08' season projection wise.. Don't want to go there?
(Johnny from No love for Jay Bruce?)
Dude, I have 542 Unanswered questions, so don't take it personally. No love for Jay Bruce? I just ranked him No. 1! That's not enough love?

Assuming the Reds do the right thing and play Bruce from Day One next year, Otto the Pit Bull (tm) says he'll hit .287/.353/.491. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-01-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)Please settle an argument for me. Based on their pure hitting abilty and nothing else, Travis Snider's ceiling is as good as Jay Bruce's. True or false? Thanks!
(Ken from Albany)
False. Snider's build leaves his power potential a little behind Bruce. Snider is really built like Matt Stairs, and while his potential is certainly higher than that, it's a frame that is limiting. Jay Bruce is the top guy in the minor leagues, though, and there really aren't many more that Snider's offensive ceiling comes behind. (Bryan Smith)
2008-01-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)What is your reasoning for putting Jones ahead of Bruce?
(yoink from trapped)
I don't think I did, I think you read that wrong. If not, I typed it wrong. Jay Bruce is the best prospect in baseball. Adam Jones is good, but he's not as good as Jay Bruce. Now I'm sure I didn't type it wrong. (Bryan Smith)
2008-01-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jay Bruce or the Cloverfield Monster?
(Chris Anderson from The Nest)
A good last question, I think. You know, Chris, I think it's pretty sad that everyone in the U.S. have seen the Cloverfield monster (haven't they, by now?) and very few have seen Jay Bruce so far. I think once Bruce gets the following Abrams' Cloverfield has, it will become quite obvious: The Boss reigns supreme over Godzilla Jr. (Bryan Smith)
2008-01-22 19:00:00 (link to chat)Bill James' 2008 Handbook projections seem to have Jay Bruce "penciled in" in CF for the Reds his year. Not only that, but those projections are huge. The question is, was the move of Josh Hamilton made with the idea that it'll be much easier to return Ryan Freel to his super-sub role at midseason than it would've been to try to shoehorn Bruce in, or is management serious about giving him the job as long as he doesn't have a disappointing camp? The Braves arguably gave up a considerable amount (in Joey Devine) to buy Jordan Schafer a little more time at a higher level - would Bruce not benefit from at least a couple more months' development at a higher level?
(clvclv from Marion, NC)
I'm a big fan of getting superior talent to the major leagues at an early age, especially in the case of position players (not so much with pitchers). What is Bruce going to do in Triple A in 2008 that he didn't already do? If he's going to sit on the bench most of the time, then, yes, send him back. I think he can play in the bigs now, albeit at a reduced rate for a year or so. (Jim Baker)
2008-01-15 14:30:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Colby Rasmus next year. He hit .275 but if you throw out June and July when he was ill then your talking about a kid who had a .340 average in AA. Could you see him becoming a better all around player than Jay Bruce and a 8-10 time AS in center.
(Mike from Utica,NY)
I really like Rasmus, though I'm not sure if he's going to be as good as I think Bruce will be. I'm also developing an irrational interest in Bruce's career though, after some of the work I've done this winter so far. (Marc Normandin)
2008-01-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jay Bruce and Andrew McCutchen, how close are they?
(Manoog from Odessa)
We probably shouldn't be bundling those two together any more. Bruce is like the $300 hotel you stay at, and McCutchen is like the free USA Today that's waiting outside your doorstep. (Nate Silver)
2008-01-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Will the following players still be at the same position in 3 years: (a) Jay Bruce--CF, (b) Ryan Braun--3B, and (c) Miguel Cabrera--3B.
(jwr from Chicago)
A. Leaning towards yes, but not in five years.
B. No.
C. No. (Kevin Goldstein)


BP Roundtables

DateRoundtable NameComment
2010-10-06 10:00:002010 Playoffs Day OneMy season-opening prediction that Jay Bruce would be the NL MVP this year was admittedly insane, but I do think the kid is going to be a magastar soon.

On a related note, kudos to the reader who responded to that prediction by saying he felt Joey Votto had a legitimate shot at the MVP. (David Laurila)
2010-10-06 10:00:002010 Playoffs Day OneFYI, Scott Rolen, Jonny Gomes, Jay Bruce combined 3-for-19 against Roy during the regular season.
(Jesse Behr)
 

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