What did I learn this winter? I learned that Baltimore catching prospect Matt Wieters is good. Well, wait a second, I already knew that, so how about, “really good”? Nope, the extra modifier just doesn’t do it justice.
How about this: after looking at the performance, talking to the scouts, and seeing what our numbers people were able to uncover over the offseason, Matt Wieters is the best prospect in baseball, the best player on the Orioles right now, and quite possibly the best catcher in the game. And he’s yet to play an inning in the big leagues.
No pressure, Matt.
Let’s start with the basics. Wieters was the top position player available in the 2007 draft. That said, everyone knew he would drop a bit due to the selection of Scott Boras as his representative, and the bonus demands that come with it. The first surprise came when the normally budget-conscious Orioles selected him with the fifth overall pick that June. The second was when they handed him a then-record $6 million as an up-front bonus. He signed too late to make his pro debut other than a rusty six weeks in the now-defunct Hawaii Winter League, where he still got glowing reviews from the few scouts who saw him there.
With all eyes on him during his official pro debut last spring, he slugged two home runs in his first game of the year for High-A Frederick, and never looked back. He hit .345/.448/.576 in a half-season for Frederick before the Orioles did a favor to the pitchers of the Carolina League and moved him up to Double-A. The jump from A-ball to Double-A is the second-hardest adjustment a player makes when scaling the ladder on their way up through the minors, second only to the ascent to the big leagues; instead of struggling, Wieters was even better, batting .365/.460/.625 against more advanced competition. With enough at-bats to qualify, he would have won the Eastern League’s batting title by 30 points, while also leading it in on-base percentage and slugging by massive margins.
Now, when ranking prospects, simply going by the numbers is a fool’s choice. Knowing what a player is doing is one thing, but knowing how that player is doing it is just as vital. Scouts are great people to talk to, often giving you in-depth breakdowns on every aspect of a player’s game. Those were a little harder to come by on Wieters following his season; one scout presented with the name simply laughed, stating, “What can I say? The guy is just a stud.” Even beyond the simple dominance reflected in the stats, that’s what he is on a scouting level as well. We’re talking about a massive physical specimen who combines plus power from both sides of the plate, the strike-zone discipline of a sharp-eyed veteran, above-average defensive skills behind the plate, and a cannon for an arm, proven by the 96 mph fastballs he’d throw during his days when he did double duty as Georgia Tech’s closer in college.
So we know he’s great, but work done by our team of researchers and statisticians during the offseason suggests that he might just be historic. One essential measurement here at Baseball Prospectus is Clay Davenport‘s Equivalent Average (abbreviated as EqA),s a single figure that measures total offense and adjusts for a number of factors, including the league’s offensive environment, park factors, and team pitching, while providing further balances to allow for accurate comparisons across different eras.
Applying these complex formulas to Wieters’ minor league season gives him a .301 EqA for his High-A stint and a .349 mark at Double-A. EqA is scaled like batting average, so those are good numbers to be sure, but further research reveals that those are the highest marks achieved in both leagues in the last 40 years, which is as far back as our data goes. Matt Wieters wasn’t just great last year, he put together one of the best single seasons in modern minor league history.
If that isn’t an enthusiastic-enough endorsement, then there’s PECOTA, our projection system, and the most accurate one in the business. PECOTA is a system that does what it does based on comparisons-finding similar players with similar physical tools and baseball skill sets. According to PECOTA, with a full slate of at-bats, Wieters should hit .311 with a .395 on-base percentage and a .544 slugging mark this year. That’s good for a .319 EqA. How good is that? Historically great, because it would easily be the highest mark of any catcher in 2009, and only 17 catchers have exceeded that mark in the history of baseball.
2009's Top PECOTA-projected Catchers Rk Player Team EqA 1. Matt Wieters Orioles .319 2. Brian McCann Braves .299 3. Joe Mauer Twins .298 4. Geovany Soto Cubs .297 5. Russell Martin Dodgers .291 6. Chris Iannetta Rockies .291 7. Mike Napoli Angels .289 8. Jeff Clement Mariners .280 9. Ryan Doumit Pirates .275 10. Miguel Montero D'backs .273 Top Five Catcher Seasons, All-time Rk Player Year EqA MVP Voting 1. Mike Piazza 1997 .365 2 2. Mike Piazza 1995 .346 4 3. Johnny Bench 1972 .342 1 4. Mike Piazza 1996 .342 2 5. Javy Lopez 2003 .338 5
According to PECOTA, the most similar player in baseball history to Wieters is Mark Teixeira, another switch-hitter with plenty of power and patience, as well as the ability to hit for a high average. That combination of skills was worth eight years and $180 million on the open market this offseason; if Wieters lives up to expectations, one can only shudder at the thought of what his value might be on the market as a Teixeira clone with above-average defensive skills at catcher. No matter what the number, it certainly adds up to another big payday down the road for a Scott Boras client.
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Just shoot me now.
I\'m reminded of the controversy 15 years or so ago, when the Stats Major League Handbook projections inadvertently implied that an unproven rookie named Jeff Bagwell would win the NL batting title. Bagwell was an astounding success as a rookie, and that seriously helped the stathead cause.
Wieters in 2009 is a similar story. If he is indeed a star from day one, then that\'s a huge boon to sabermetrics. On the other hand, were he to struggle, it would be ammunition for those traditionally-minded pundits who poo-poo the likes of PECOTA. As such, I think everyone in the BP community has a vested interest in rooting for Matt Wieters this year, regardless of their normal affiliation. (I\'m a Jays fan, for crying out loud, so the last thing I need is for the O\'s to suddenly show signs of life!)
--JRM
A statement like this is why sabrmetrics would take it on the chin if Wieters doesn\'t meet PECOTA\'s expectations. PECOTA is a very useful analytical and predictive tool in many respects; but it\'s not even close to being the best projection system for a particular season.
Everything I\'ve read indicates that PECOTA is right up there in the group with the best. Some fare a little better by one measure and some a little better by another, but all the systems that use at least three years of historical data and some regression to the mean end up in basically the same accuracy basket.
I won\'t advertise PECOTA\'s competitors on BP\'s website. Suffice to say over the past 15 years I\'ve used dozens of projection systems. The 3 I currently use have, for the past 3 years, each been better predictors of player performance for those seasons than PECOTA.
But that said, does it really mean anything? You make a good point that what appears to be a superior predictive system could simply be a beneficiary of luck and/or statistical noise that will wash out over time; and I doubt 3 years is sufficient time for that to happen.
So I\'ll change my post\'s wording slightly: There is no evidence that PECOTA, for all its other virtues, is the \"best\" predictor of player performance for a particular season; and claiming that it is could ultimately do a great disservice to the stathead cause.
Now, there are certainly other systems to test against, and it would help BP\'s credibility some if Nate would make all of the data from past projections available publicly (especially given that the value from them being proprietary is now basically zero), but according to the numbers he\'s reported, it seems that PECOTA is the most consistently accurate system.
Sean Smith\'s CHONE, which has been shown to be just as good at projecting hitters as PECOTA, has Wieters projected at .274/.352/.439, compared to Mauer at .314/.410/.452, McCann at .297/.368/.503, and Sota at .279/.363/.474.
The new promising kid on the block in the projections world, Brian Cartwright\'s Oliver, has Wieters projected at .294/.373/.487, Mauer at .308/.377/.435, McCann at .285/.339/.491, and Soto at .270/.338/.443.
So Wieters is clearly considered a bright star in the sabermetric world, but CHONE is not as high on him as PECOTA and Oliver.
Wieters 311/407/526 in 546 PA
McCann 301/370/525 in 571 PA
Mauer 323/412/463 in 598 PA
Soto 293/370/499 in 577 PA
For comparison, I wonder what Gordon\'s projection was two(?) years ago.
That\'s really good, granted, but that was only at third, not catcher. And 60 points of OPS is nothing to sneeze at when you\'re reaching the upper echelon.
Wieters: 649 PA, 560 AB
Mauer: 612 PA, 531 AB
Martin: 579 PA, 499 AB
Awfully high for a catcher, let alone who might start the year in the minors. No catcher reached 560 AB last year, and only Victor Martinez did in 2007 (562).
I knew at the time I would regret it down the line, but like many others before me, felt like you only get so many shots at the title, so I went for it. If only I had known...
Bruce did fly thru the minors and get a decnt number of MLB PAs and hit 254/314/453.
I don\'t think that\'s actually too bad, but it is ~70 ops points below the optimistic PECOTA.
I\'d sooner bet on Weiters missing his PECOTA projection by 70 pts than his actual one.
And while I have the 08 spreadhseet open let me look at Longoria who is more age similar to Weiters.
PECOTA: 270/344/482
Actual: 272/343/531
Missed on him by ~50 pts, but in the opposite direction.
So toungue firmly in cheek, I guarantee that Wieters will hit either within -70 to +50 pts of his projection.
It\'s amazing how many questions arise regarding the handling of a stud prospect.
(My guess is before)
barring an absurd statistical season from another AL position player, the James/PECOTA projections + strong defense (as Wieters\' has been advertised) would put Wieters in strong MVP consideration as a rookie (at least in the stats community - perhaps the BBWAA would catch on once the 4-letter hype machine heats up). Wow.