There isn’t much about in the way of statistical reports on managers here at Baseball Prospectus. The official BP POV is that you need proof to prognosticate or pontificate, and there is little about managers that can be explained without resorting to subjective, anecdotal evidence. The most we can do is point out aspects of a manager’s personality or performance that are well-documented and likely played some role in influencing the performances of those around him. Fortunately, the most successful and longest lived managers–not always the same thing–have left a fossil record of accumulated incidents that goes a long way towards defining them. Though it is impossible to prove a manager’s precise effect on his team’s record of wins and losses, the historical record contains ample evidence of managers’ ability to both hinder and, in more select circumstances, help their teams. Here, in order, are the 20 managers who have compiled the most victories in the history of the game, with an emphasis on their human side–from which much about their teams can be inferred, but conclusions cannot be drawn.
John Maine has the right STUFF for the Orioles. The Rockies experiment with Wilson and Walker on the shelf. The Mets shuffle through the bottom of their rotation. These and other news and notes out of Baltimore, Colorado, and New York in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
While I don’t think the Anderson contract was a good one, I can at least see the rationale behind it, the organizational thought process. The Expos’ commitment to Hernandez, an innings sponge coming off of his best season, makes much less sense to me. To justify it, you have to think that 2003 represented an Andersonesque leap in performance, and be comfortable with the idea that Hernandez’s huge workload in his 20s isn’t going to affect either his pitching or his availability over the next few years. I don’t know that I can agree with either premise. Despite being the Pitcher Abuse Points poster boy throughout this career, Hernandez has remained healthy enough to make virtually all his starts since reaching the majors for good in 1997. He’s established himself as a workhorse who, 2003 aside, provides league-average performance over 210 or more innings. That has value, but when you look at what pitchers of Hernandez’s ilk got over the winter, it’s hard to understand $7 million a season. Jeff Suppan, a pretty good comp for Hernandez, signed for two years and $6 million over the winter. Jason Johnson is a bit inferior to Hernandez, and got $7 million over two years. Steve Trachsel got his 2005 option picked up at $5 million and an option year–not guaranteed–tacked on at $7 million. In light of these signings, Hernandez was retained at a significant premium above his market value–assuming other teams don’t think Livan’s 2003 represented a new performance plateau.
With all due kudos to Barry Bonds for passing Willie Mays on the all-time home run leaderboard, I’m hoping his efforts to fell Hank Aaron’s mark of 755 come to grief. I’m not wishing injury upon Bonds, and this sentiment of mine is not borne of any animus toward Bonds himself. I’m gleefully untroubled by the steroids issue, and I’m also not one of these who levels his selective misanthropy at the modern ballplayer. I’m just someone who has a deep and abiding admiration for Hank Aaron, such that I want to see him cling to this record until we do a collective header back into the primordial soup whence we came.
The Expos were expected to be an offensive force. It remains to be seen if the first two weeks are a fluke, whether the Marlins pitching is really that good, or if things will balance out. What is known is that the Expos will have to improve without Carl Everett. Everett was expected to take up some of the slack left by the loss of Vladimir Guerrero. Instead, he’ll spend the next month rehabbing a torn labrum. He hurt his shoulder on a violent slide into second. Reports say that the MRI shows only a small tear of the posterior aspect of Everett’s labrum. Things are looking very good for Trot Nixon. His extended stay in Miami hasn’t set back his timetable. After a pair of successful batting practice sessions, Nixon is moving to the Red Sox’s Ft. Myers rehab facility. He’ll continue his extensive rehab program with Sox trainers, not just for the next weeks, but if he hopes to stay healthy, he’ll have to make this part of his daily routine. Nixon could be back in Boston’s lineup as early as May 1, but it’s more likely that it will be a week to 10 days after that.
The Phillies make a commitment they might regret, Jimy Williams makes
decisions that Astros’ fans might regret, and the Twins and Orioles sever some
ties, without regret.
It’s the bottom of the seventh, and the visiting team has just made its second
pitching change of the inning. The Obey-o-Tron flashes a meager assortment of
information on the new guy, none of it from Michael Wolverton or Keith
Woolner. How can you figure out if the reliever is carrying a bucket of water
or a gas pump? Derek explains.
The owner of the most famous Achilles’ tendon since…well, Achilles…took to the mound for ten pitches on Wednesday. Will has a report on how it went, along
with updates on two hamstrings, one oblique strain, and a resolution to The
Saga of Preston Wilson.
Since taking over the Angels less than two years ago, Arte Moreno has made
contract commitments of more than $200 million in an effort to fill Angels
Stadium and push his new team back to the World Series. Tuesday’s agreement to
pay Garret Anderson $48 million from 2005-08 is just the latest big-money
signing. Joe Sheehan examines the deal.
The Twins fritter away two live, young arms. The Mets get to mix and match in the outfield with Cliff Floyd and Karim Garcia missing time. The over/under on Jeffrey Hammonds hitting the DL again is the end of this sentence. These and other happenings in today’s Transaction Analysis.
The Red Sox won’t be using David McCarty on the mound again any time soon. The Reds hope their hot pitching can continue. The Padres’ bizarre Ryan Klesko usage patterns continue. These and other news and notes out of Boston, Cincinnati, and San Diego in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
The daily Mark Prior report is simple: unchanged. The Cubs laughed off Lawrence Rocca’s suggestion that Prior’s injury was really to his elbow and that he was headed for Tommy John surgery. Dusty Baker did everything but call Rocca a liar in comments after the game, so let’s try and put this to rest: Prior’s arm is simply not game-ready, as it would be for a typical pitcher starting spring training. It will take him between four and six weeks to get ready once the Achilles tendon is asymptomatic. If Prior had a bum elbow, he wouldn’t have played long toss in front of Christian Ruzich this winter and he wouldn’t be doing towel drills. The Cubs will be without Mark Grudzielanek for at least three weeks after an MRI showed fraying of his Achilles tendon. As with Prior, an Achilles is very difficult to get under control once tendinitis has set in. The acquisition of Todd Walker is looking very smart. The Cubs are also on the lookout for a shortstop with Alex Gonzalez struggling and Dusty Baker reportedly lacking confidence in Ramon Martinez in a starting role. While Orlando Cabrera’s name comes up in rumors, Craig Counsell is a likelier target.
No one wants to print out a batch of Prospectus statistical reports and take them to the game. So like MacGyver, we take some mental stats and make some ugly improvised devices. My goal is to make every step something I can do while drinking a beer–a quick bit of easy mental division and a comparison, for instance. And as a friend of mine was once advised by a fortune cookie: “If you want to find an easier way to do something, ask a lazy man.”
The term “luck” is actually shorthand for a more difficult concept, that when two playoff-caliber teams square off in a best-of-five or best-of-seven series, any result is reasonably likely. Just because a particular one occurs doesn’t reflect anything other than the events that made up that series: one player’s hot week, or one pitcher’s inability to throw his curve for strikes, or a baserunner’s ill-fated decision to take an extra base. These events do not, despite the mythology of October, enlighten us about the character or fortitude of people any more than Nate Robertson’s huge last week out of the bullpen does. Those things aren’t luck, they’re performance, and using the former word to describe them isn’t helping us make the larger concept accessible to more people.
This week’s grades are based on getaways, fast, slow, or N/A, with a healthy allowance for the biases that a small sample size encourages. In other words, we can call Victor Zambrano the Cy Young award winner after just three starts and excuse it as a moment of vernally-inspired hormonal exuberance. Still, with just one week in the bag every team on this list has been possessed by Chicken Little-style paranoia or Pollyannaish optimism, and their plans are being altered accordingly. Maybe you can’t trust TEAMS this week, but you can’t trust teams either. Caveat lector, caveat emptor, and laissez les bon temps rouler!
He still had a fantastic career–you can make an argument that Mantle was the most valuable player in the American League for at least 10 years (he was first or second in runs created/game in 1952-1958, 1960-1962, and 1964, while playing a key defensive position), but many, including Stengel, were left wondering what the boy with the power of Ruth and the speed of Cobb would have done had he been completely healthy for even one season. His 1957-1958 performance, 358/.487/.686 in a league that hit .266/.343./.404, seemed only to scratch the surface. No one will ever know if their expectations were too high. Once Mantle’s knee was damaged the opportunity to find out vanished. Earlier this week, 20-year-old Twins rookie catcher Joe Mauer tore medial meniscus cartilage in his left knee sliding after a foul ball on the hard Metrodome turf. It is said to be a minor injury, though it still required surgery to repair. The catcher will be back on the field in about a month, and there are not expected to be any lingering consequences to Mauer’s assumedly glorious future. Yet, any sudden disruption of a young player’s career can have unanticipated consequences.