The Braves’ bench looks ugly. The Dodgers make some nifty deals. The Mets inexplicably hand starting jobs to Tyler Yates and Scott Erickson. The Rangers unload Einar Diaz on the Expos. These and other happenings in today’s Transaction Analysis.
For the following survey, 13 members of the Baseball Prospectus staff submitted their predictions in time for publication, covering–among other things–divisional standings and end-of-season awards.
The scene is one Livan Hernandez still remembers perfectly…even if it’s been over six years. There he was on his knees, looking skyward and pounding his chest with both fists just seconds after the Florida Marlins had wrapped up the 1997 World Championship. A major contributor to the Marlins’ title run, Hernandez deserved his share of the spotlight in posting four victories in the League Championship Series and World Series combined. Just 22 at the time, the Cuban-born right-hander became the youngest pitcher ever to win a World Series opener. His reward: World Series MVP. But Hernandez has experienced his share of bumps in the road, posting just two winning seasons since 1998. He’s been questioned over the years for his inability to work out of trouble and stay in shape. Last season marked a strong rebound season, though, as Hernandez finished 8th in the majors in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) among all pitchers. On Tuesday he returns to Pro Player Stadium to handle Opening-Day duties against the Marlins. Montreal’s staff ace recently discussed his assignment in Miami, his World Series success and his career in Cuba, among other topics of conversation, with Baseball Prospectus.
Statistics are a tool, not unlike a microscope. Statistics are a hammer, a speculum, a thermometer. A statistics-based approach to understanding of baseball is one of many paths to knowledge of the game. Calling those who take that path “freaks” or “Nazis” makes as much sense as calling a Ph.D. chemist a wimp because he tests the qualities of his cyanide compound by means of Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy rather than just drinking the thing.
Let me count the e-mails asking me about Pedro Martinez’s arm slot and velocity during the game tonight…and probably more on the way. It’s a bit of a change for me, but after working with Tom House this off-season, I’m not worried about arm slot. If everything else is in line, the arm slot will find itself. Pedro’s velocity is only important in relation to his other pitches. He certainly didn’t look great on Sunday night, but one start isn’t something that should start a panic.
The Astros make some final roster changes before Opening Day. Chris Capuano will start the season with the Brewers. And the A’s look for fill-in options at second base after losing Mark Ellis. All this and much more news from Houston, Milwaukee, and Oakland in your Monday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
Between the time I submit this and the time you read it, Paul DePodesta may
have made another half-dozen deals that move the Dodgers up from their current
standing. Here’s what I’m going with for now…
If you’ve taken some time to explore the depth charts that are part of our new Fantasy product, you may have noticed the team-by-team projections for run scored, runs allowed, and W-L record. There’s a lot of hard work that went into generating these numbers. Runs scored are projected through what I believe to be very accurate lineup simulator program, combining the individual hitter PECOTAs and accounting for playing time at each position and in each batting order slot. Runs allowed are estimated in a similar fashion, and a W-L record is generated by combining these two figures by using the Pythagenport formula. These are good projections. I pretty much limit my gambling activities to poker and an NCAA Tournament pool or two (Go Yellow Jackets!), but if you happen to be in Vegas or something, you could make some good money by betting on these.
One thing the original version of the projections didn’t account for is strength of schedule. That never used to be much of a concern in baseball, but given both the imbalanced divisional schedule, and imbalanced interleague matchups, it can make a palpable bit of difference, especially in the case of a team like the Blue Jays that will play nearly a quarter of its schedule against the AL East Nuclear Superpowers.
With that in mind, let’s run through the divisions and evaluate each team in these departments…
Pokey takes over at short after Nomar hits the Red Sox DL. Paul DePodesta’s old mates gift him with Jayson Werth and Jason Grabowski. Clay Condrey may need to enter the witness protection program after landing in Philly. The Pads and Cards exchange crappy, speedy outfielders. These and other happenings in a special Saturday edition of Transaction Analysis.
Choosing between the top two teams in the American League is an exercise in predicting the future. Any analysis of the current rosters is going to be inadequate, because what will separate these two come September are the relative health of the teams’ stars, what the two teams do to add players in-season, and what happens in the 19 games the two will play against each other. In light of that, my selection of the Red Sox seems a bit strange. After all, they’ll play seven games against the Yankees this month without Nomar Garciaparra and Trot Nixon, two major parts of their lineup. Moreover, the Sox don’t have any obvious holes that they can address in the trade market, whereas the Yankees can get better by acquiring a second baseman and a starting pitcher. Moreover, the Yankees’ willingness to take on any contract at any time–a trait that should only become more pronounced after last week’s court victory that assures the YES Network of considerable revenue–means that they are a threat to acquire any player in the game. I’ll still take the Sox.
The Angels spent lots of money on their rotation this offseason, but was it worth it? Kerry Wood is having a fantastic spring, with improved control. The Tigers have spent the past few weeks upgrading their bullpen in a search for 65 wins. A number of Expos are taking trips to ”club med.” The Giants have failed to upgrade their offense, while the Dodgers have made small strides. And the Blue Jays traded Jayson Werth, but perhaps for good reason.
It wasn’t long ago that a new stadium meant a new outlook. With Baltimore and Cleveland as the standard-bearers, almost every baseball team sought to use a new stadium as the road to riches. Of course, they’d gladly tell the taxpayers and signatories that the road to riches would lead to competitive, even championship teams, but it’s seldom turned out that way. New stadiums mean something to medheads as well, but there’s a very small sample size to work with, and it appears that there’s a very small window as well. New parks mean more injuries. This is true in almost every park, but only for a short three-to-six month adjustment period. The effect is scattershot; one would expect it to involve people running into walls or something park specific, but that’s not the case. Instead, it’s just something to note as we get two new parks from which to collect.
Rarely is Miguel Tejada unaccounted for in the Baltimore Orioles’ clubhouse. Tejada isn’t afraid to make his own fashion statement–even if it’s not approved–raise his voice a few decimals, or just chat away until his new teammates have heard enough. By his own admission Tejada relishes being the center of attention, and he’s certainly earned that right.
An undrafted free agent out of Bani, Dominican Republic, Tejada signed with the Oakland A’s in 1993 wth hopes of following in the steps of his childhood idol, Alfredo Griffin. Over a decade later Tejada is already considerd a member of baseball’s top-tier shortstops. But after validating his star-status by winning the 2002 American League MVP Award and being part of the A’s recent postseason run, Tejada, who signed a six-year, $72 million deal in the off-season, is ready to begin a new chapter in his career. BP recently interviewed Tejada about saying good-bye to Oakland, swinging the bat in hitter-friendly Camden Yards and patroling the same postion in Baltimore that for years belonged to Cal Ripken Jr..
I’m going to write about the Cardinals today. I’ve been a ruthlessly devoted fan of the Cards since I was old enough to eat bugs, so know that I embark on this exercise while holding more stake than usual in the outcome. Time was when I would pick the Cardinals to win their division every single year, but since I began pontificating on baseball for modest pay and an audience, I’ve had to adopt more of a clinical remove when talking about them. That’s why, as things stand, I think they’re the third best team in the NL Central (although the recent flurry of decisions and happenstance on the North Side of Chicago have me dreaming fond dreams of second place).
Grumpy about this, I’m going to brazenly second guess all that has passed before the eyes of Cardinal Nation this off-season. It’ll be one part bang-spoon-on-high-chair sense of entitlement and one part desultory wallowing in what might have been. I call it “What My Favorite Team Should Have Done This Winter.” I’ll try to avoid indulging in castles-in-the-air schemes like: Sign Vlad! Trade for A-Rod! Swap Bo Hart for Marcus Giles! Additionally, I’ll attempt to maintain some semblance of fiscal verisimilitude in what I recommend.
With bullet points, for the busy executive…
The following article was part of Baseball Prospectus’ April Fool’s Day content for 2004.
Sabermetrics has grappled with this issue for the past two decades, trying to discover whether clutch hitting existed, who the clutch hitters were if they did exist, and how much effect they had on the game. Most studies focused on situations that could be defined by objective criteria that related to the subjective impression of being “clutch”–batting with runners in scoring position, and batting in the late innings of close games being the two most common examples. However, in thinking about this recently, I realized that we had been approaching this in entirely the wrong way. Defining clutch in terms of a particular characteristic in a point in time fails to capture the common understanding of the term–delivering when it means the most to your team. Without having the larger context of the game in which to evaluate clutchness, any attempt to measure it is doomed to failure. So, what larger context applies in this situation? Clearly, the outcome of the game is paramount.
In a paradigm shift that will drop jaws around the league, the Blue Jays have eliminated all amateur scouting positions within the organization. Instead, for the past few weeks, they’ve relied on prospective draftees to conduct scouting assessments of themselves. Yes, you read that correctly. The Blue Jays, in their unquenchable search for the grail of minimized labor costs, will rely on the player to scout himself.