So, did anything happen while I was gone?
In an effort to keep what’s going to be a long edition to a non-Kahrlian length, and from ending up in this report with carpal tunnel agony, I’ll just say that my trip to the Bay Area was amazing. Not only was I in a small, hot conference room with what might be the most baseball mind-power short of the Winter Meetings…(or, then again)…I was able to visit Pac Bell Park, watch Barry Bonds take BP from the side of the batting cage, and spend a half hour talking with Stan Conte about everything sports med. I thank everyone involved for making it a great trip.
Onto the injuries…
Eight of the AL’s 14 teams can entertain October dreams, with the Angels’ hopes on life support just four days into the second half. The Mariners and Royals have far outplayed my expectations, and the Rangers have, for the third straight year, made me look silly for thinking they’d win. Thank god for the amazing predictability of the AL East, or I might have to give back my blue beanie emblazoned with the logo of the Certified Baseball Experts Society.
Going through the data and talking to sources brings up an interesting quirk. There are often differences cited between the AL and NL, but never such a gap in injury statistics. The AL is healthier by a large margin–if I quoted the number, you’d be stunned–and there’s no reason that jumps out. Some have long thought that the DH slot could keep some players off the DL, allowing someone to hit while not completely healthy, say Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols or Edgar Martinez. There’s no great “health gap” in any other year since adoption of the rule, so I’m loathe to assign credit or blame. There’s no changes in player patterns, medical staffs, or park effect to explain it, so in retrospect, finding that answer will be the greatest challenge and potential lesson for medheads in the second half. That said, it could be mere fluke and the NL could get really healthy for a couple months, but I don’t think so.
Remember that I grade the teams based on a couple factors–overall health compared to both league and team averages, ability to get players back ahead of schedule, lost time to DL, and effect of injuries on team results. These are not terribly scientific and should not be used for wagering. In no instance am I assigning blame; instead, I merely hope to allow comparison and quantify effect. They’re not worth arguing over.
In honor of the Mets’ rethinking their philosophy on Roberto Alomar, the corresponding White Sox dump of D’Angelo Jimenez, and that inevitable day in the future when Alfonso Soriano plays a bad center field for the Mets, here is a top 10 list of 11 trades and transactions involving some of the best keystone commandos ever to play the game. Note that most of these moves are spectacularly lopsided; apparently it’s a rare thing to come up with a two-way second baseman, but rarer still to recognize what you have, or know how to hold on to him.
The Expos have cooled after their blazing hot start; the Giants have had their share of Good, Bad, and Ugly; and the Blue Jays pitching leaves something to be desired. All this and much more news from Montreal, San Francisco, and Toronto in your Friday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
”Over the course of nine innings hundreds of silent signs and signals are given and received by managers, coaches and players…” So begins Paul Dickson’s new book, The Hidden Language of Baseball (Walker Books, $22.00). Hidden serves as a history of this fascinating, though often misunderstood, part of baseball. Prospectus correspondent Peter Schilling Jr. discussed with Mr. Dickson the nature of signs and sign stealing in baseball today, as well as the controversy surrounding Bobby Thomson’s ”Shot Heard ‘Round the World.”
In part one of this review inspired by the Mets’ excision of Roberto Alomar from their midst–call it a celebration if you must–we stumbled over the desiccated remains of transactions involving Frankie Frisch, Rogers Hornsby, Eddie Collins and others on the way to a subjective ranking of the most misguided second baseman swaps in history. Part two revisits the five most self-destructive acts of abnegation by teams that had the goods but let them get away.
As you’ll recall, last week we took a gander at the minor-league careers of today’s elite pitchers. This time around, it’s the less-than-stellar crowd that gets the once-over.
It’s a group I like to call Group B: all active pitchers who have, as of the end of the 2002 season, pitched at least 500 innings and posted a park-adjusted ERA+ of 95 or less (at least five percent worse than the league average). Just like last time, I’ve attempted to isolate those minor-league innings that are developmental in nature–i.e., not an injury rehab assignment or late-career retread work.
The Angels’ bullpen has been lights out beyond belief; Sammy Sosa has really turned it around; and Dmitri Young was a legitimate All-Star pick, no matter what your friends try to tell you. All this and much more news from Anaheim, Chicago, and Detroit in your Thursday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
This column isn’t about Bud. It’s about Tuesday’s USA Today feature, What’s the Problem with Baseball?” and its companion, “Ten Ways to Improve Baseball.” In the same week that USA Today won praise from Time for its journalism, it published a pair of articles which would embarrass a small-town weekly. These articles were built around the results of a Gallup Poll conducted from June 27-29. The complete results of this survey, with historical data for context, are available from the Gallup Web site. Comparing USA Today’s breathless hyping of baseball’s “problems” to the actual data shows how authors Peter Barzilai and John Follaco selectively reported the results that supported their conclusion.
The health of the American League has been, well, average. Teams near the top of their divisions have dealt with injuries more than they’ve avoided or overcome them. As baseball heads into the second half, teams will watch for signs of fatigue, and the interplay between team medical staffs and the field staff becomes key. A trainer spotting bad mechanics, keeping a player from turning a tweak into a tear, or returning a guy ahead of schedule, can be worth a win or two. I grade the teams based on a number of factors: overall health compared to both league and team averages, ability to get players back ahead of schedule, lost time to DL, and effect of injuries on team results. These are not terribly scientific and should not be used for wagering. In no instance am I assigning blame; instead, I merely hope to allow comparison and quantify effect. They’re not worth arguing over.
Watch SportsCenter this time of year, or read the Sunday baseball page–that’s the one with the long list of players sorted by their batting averages–and you’re sure to see plenty of stories about what a wonderful, surprising baseball season this has been. Why, who would have thought that Dontrelle Willis would have been drawing Mark Fidrych comparisons, that the Royals would be 10 games over sea level at the Break, that Melvin Mora would be an MVP candidate, that Esteban Loaiza would be the best arm in the American League? Perhaps there’s some Joe Namath among you, some Nostradamus, some Miss Cleo, but we certainly didn’t.
Rickey’s back. The Dodgers are 49-44, three and a half games out of the Wild Card, but if their pitching were as bad as their offense they’d be the worst team in the majors. Paul Lo Duca (.307/.374/.438, .285 EqA) is having a good year, but when the All-Star catcher looks out at the rest of his team, he sees an offensive wasteland. At first base, Fred McGriff (.249/.318/.430, .261 EqA) was unimpressive before going on the DL. Up the middle, Alex Cora (.240/.281/.319, .213 EqA) and Cesar Izturis (.255/.290/.302, .210 EqA), who have gotten most of the playing time, are a combined black hole. Third baseman Adrian Beltre (.225/.286/.356, .227 EqA) has seen his star come crashing to earth after having once been one of the hottest prospects in the game. In the outfield, Shawn Green (.255/.317/.429, .262 EqA) is underachieving, and none of the combination of Mike Kinkade, Dave Roberts, Jolbert Cabrera, Chad Hermansen and Wilkin Ruan has been exceptional. Brian Jordan (.299/.372/.420, .282 EqA) had been the bets of the bunch, but a severe injury means his season and Dodger career are over. Faced with the option of buying or selling for the stretch run, the Dodgers made their move, trading for Jeromy Burnitz and plucking Rickey Henderson from Newark.
As Fox added about three mph to every pitch in last night’s game, I’m glad that the radar readings don’t count. I’m also glad that the “automatic” closer types are anything but automatic, and that the shiny closer tag really doesn’t make someone any better a pitcher when it counts. I thought that using Keith Foulke as the AL closer just had to burn Kenny Williams’ butt.
I’m most happy, however, that my instincts were wrong and that no one managed to injure themselves. The last thing anyone wants to see in an All-Star Game is one of their heroes leave the game on a stretcher. Despite the best efforts of Bud’s Boys, the All-Star Game was a great exhibition.
Just to reiterate: “This Time it Counts” is a fraudulent notion being shoved down our throats by an administration known for disinformation and a cowed media without the courage to call a spade a spade. I’m not surprised to see Kevin Kennedy sell the idea; after all, he works for Fox, and this is Fox’s baby. I am disappointed to see the ESPN staff climb aboard so willingly. I just wish I’d see one person on television with the temerity to suggest that tying World Series home-field advantage to the All-Star Game is a worthless gimmick, and moreover, point out that the real problem with the All-Star Game is interleague play, a worthless gimmick in and of itself.
The Orioles would do well to sell high on their first-half performers. Charles Johnson and Juan Uribe have been disappointments for the Rockies. The Mets remain in shopping mode after dealing Alomar and Burnitz.