Esteban Loaiza’s a fine candidate for the Cy Young Award this year…he’s the right height, you see. He’s 6’4″, as all the cool kids are these days, as well as the last two winners of the AL Cy Young Award. On the other hand, he was born late in the year, and there hasn’t been a late-born winner since Pedro Martinez in 2000. That’s pretty dumb, huh? Who cares how tall Esteban Loaiza is, or what color his eyes are? You’ve already spotted where I’m heading with this, so I’ll give it up: speculation around the Cy Young beyond who should win it is counter-productive. Like the MVP, the Cy Young speculation centers around a bunch of indicators of pitcher ability that every year reinforce the importance of those statistics. If everyone runs an article saying Tim Hudson can’t win because he doesn’t have the win total, it makes it less likely Hudson’s going to get the award. Even if the effect seems small–voters making a choice between equally-qualified second-place candidates on their ballot, for instance–the knowledge that their vote might help a winner over the top can lead them to go with the bandwagon. And in turn, this leads to speculation on which candidates for each award have the needed momentum. They in turn get mentioned early and often on sports pages. It’s unfortunate that baseball coverage on the end-of-season awards has been reduced to the level of political coverage.
So there I was, sitting at Victory Field, ready for the last three-hour baseball talk-fest of the season, ready with facts, opinions, and data at my fingertips. I expected calls and debates and excitement for one of the best “pennant chases” of recent memory. And Larry Bird had to go and screw the whole thing up. You see, I live in a state where basketball is king and one legend pink-slipping another is big, big, big news. Baseball was pushed aside and for about 40 minutes, and I had to talk hoops. It was an ugly scene. Tonight, let’s stick to baseball.
Oh, and how cool is it that Julio Franco finally admitted his age?
Brendan Donnelly has managed to put together one of the most auspicious beginnings to a career in recent memory. Dusty Baker sure loves his veterans. And Brandon Inge is having the month of his life for the Tigers. All this and much more news from Anaheim, Chicago, and Detroit in your Thursday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
As you are all unfortunately aware, Bobby Bonds died this past Saturday after a long battle with cancer. Bobby came before my time, and I’m not fit to eulogize him. But perhaps I can honor his memory in some way by looking at players of the sort that Bobby exemplified: power-speed sluggers.
A lot of analysts are fond of disparaging the value of speed (this Web site has been no exception). Speed is perceived as a scouty thing, a tool that looks impressive, but has little practical value on a baseball diamond. The one definitive advantage that speed would seem to provide–the stolen base–is rightly considered an overrated tool. Even within mainstream circles, speed seems to be losing currency. As ballplayers bulk up, and deeper lineups grow ever more capable of scoring runs with the bat alone, stolen base attempts become less frequent. Entire teams are willing to put together their rosters without so much as giving speed the once-over.
Well, I think speed has gotten a raw deal. Certainly, speed isn’t as important for a position player as the Big Three skills–hitting for contact, hitting for power, and controlling the strike zone–and to list it alongside those three, implying that it is of equal significance, is confusing. But speed is still plenty important for a number of reasons…
In part one of this series on the roster-building woes of the Pirates–most of them self-inflicted as the organization careens from crisis to crisis like an inebriated pachyderm with a stuttering problem pirouetting through a mine field while trying to recite key scenes from Finnegan’s Wake–it was alleged that the Pirates have a long history of making disastrous trades, and that in fact the list of good trades barely existed. Herewith, the evidence.
David Eckstein’s miserable season for the Angels runs into injury. The White Sox add Scott Sullivan to a good-looking bullpen. The Expos grab Todd Zeile in their desperate attempt to fill the third base void. Cliff Floyd’s injury allows the Mets to look at Jeff Duncan. The Giants could get crushed if they start Dustin Hermanson in the playoffs. These and other transaction news and Kahrlisms in this edition of Transaction Analysis.
Boy, that was kinda cool. The Expos, down 8-0 in the bottom of the fifth inning, scored 14 runs in their next four ups to overtake the Phillies 14-10 and move to within two games of the wild-card slot. The win was the second-largest comeback in Expos history, the biggest comeback in the majors this season, and the biggest blown lead in Phillies history. It was just another night in the National League, where all but four teams are within nine games of a playoff spot, and just 2.5 games separate eight teams battling for the Wild Card and the NL Central title.
Phillies 70-61 —
Marlins 70-61 —
Astros* 69-62 —
Diamondbacks 69-63 1.5
Cubs 68-62 1.5
Cardinals 68-63 2
Expos 69-64 2
Dodgers 67-63 2.5
Those eight teams are 98-89 in August, by the way. Remember, it’s not necessarily a great race, just an interesting and fun one. I’ve been saying for weeks now that I’m going to get to an analysis of this zoo, but every time I sit down and try to do so, the situation changes. The Phillies had control. Then the Diamondbacks made a run. The Marlins tried to become America’s darlings. The NL Central’s lead changes hourly on some days. The Expos lost a bunch of heartbreakers on the West Coast and seemed ready to join the Rockies in the bleachers, but have battled back to start a season-defining 17-game stretch 2-0. These next two-and-a-half weeks are the whole ball of wax for the Expos, who play no one but the Phillies and Marlins through Sept. 7, then host the Cubs in their last four Puerto Rico games. It will be the Expos’ last crack at teams ahead of them in the Wild Card chase, and it’s essential that they come out of this stretch no worse than second or third in the group and a couple of games back. Any further behind, and it may be too hard to climb over multiple teams who will be playing many, many head-to-head games in September. If they can somehow climb to the top of the pack, however, their lack of games against other contenders will make them hard to catch in the season’s last two weeks.
Maybe I’ll get a scoop on Milton Bradley this weekend as I make my first trip to the Jake, but in all likelihood, I won’t get to see him play. Bradley continues to have problems with his lower back, and if things don’t improve quickly, the Indians have made noise about shutting him down. Bradley is an interesting case–a player who had something of a breakout, but someone who could be forced out by a crowded outfield next season, and the economics of a suddenly fiscally conscious franchise. I still see Bradley as Albert Belle Lite, in both the positive and negative senses. On the other hand, I will probably get to see Omar Vizquel play. After months recovering from knee problems, Vizquel will be back in the lineup for the last month, filling in where many thought Brandon Phillips would be entrenched now.
The recently re-signed Scott Hatteberg is dealing with chronic lower back pain. Now there’s a sentence you really don’t want to see as an A’s fan. Hatteburg has back spasms from time to time, usually treatable and not serious in the long-term, but this situation hasn’t gone away or even gotten significantly better for any extended period of time. I know many people are at a loss to explain the A’s re-upping the star of Moneyball, but from a medhead standpoint, I can’t help them with that.
Like always, some good stuff from the reader e-mail, as Richard Dansky checks in with his report on Billy Koch and his first outing at Triple-A: “I saw Billy Koch throw an inning last night against the Durham Bulls. He topped out around 94 mph, but really didn’t have a lot of movement on anything he threw and got cuffed around. When Jorge Cantu can get around on a Billy Koch fastball and pull it, it’s not because Cantu’s suddenly been possessed by the spirit of Vern Stephens.” Hey readers–quit being funnier than me. Isn’t being smarter enough?
The Orioles played one of the worst games of the year against the Yankees; Rockies farmhand Brad Hawpe has steadily moved up the ladder; and Steve Trachsel showed his annual flash of brilliance against the Rockies. All this and much more news from Baltimore, Colorado, and New York in your Wednesday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
A couple of weeks ago, I spelled out the argument that there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect. Just as a follow-up, I want to point out something Rangers’ Director of Player Development Grady Fuson said in an interview with Jamey Newberg:
“And most of these kids that we’re signing out of high school or junior college or college, for the first three or four years of their careers they are still growing. They are still adding muscle mass and growth, and at least my perception of developing pitchers is most don’t come into their prime until at least their mid-20s. And I think that all has to do with body growth and body mass and finding that one delivery that helps repeat. And I think that all takes two or three years to build into your system.”
Fuson makes the point that is central to TNSTAAPP: Most pitchers in the minor leagues are still developing physically, which is what makes them such risks. Pitching professionally is hard enough on the arms of grown men; it’s moreso on ones not fully mature.
The Red Sox don’t strand that many runners, given how many they get on base. The Reds continue to dismantle a snake-bitten team. The Padres appear close to acquiring Brian Giles. These and other news and notes out of Boston, Cincinnati, and San Diego in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
I’m a huge Rafael Soriano fan. In fact, I’ve been so impressed with him that I’ve given him my full endorsement. Soriano came up last year, pitched in the rotation for a stretch, but didn’t do particularly well. After being sent down to the minors, he honed his slider and change and this year he returned as a reliever. Since then he’s been outstanding. Despite only throwing 40 innings, he’s on BP’s Top 30 Relievers list. Soriano deals. He has his off days, but not many this year, and I’ve been to games where I had to pick my jaw up off the sticky Safeco concrete, his stuff looked so good. You’ll hear reports that he’s got dominant closer stuff, but Soriano was a starter in the minors and he’ll be back in the rotation sooner or later. Think Johan Santana. So here are the guys pitching relief now who could be starting and health willing, winning if given the opportunity.
Today, if a short UTK isn’t enough for you, I would like to point you to the interview that Nate Silver and I did with Rickey Henderson last week. I only wish that I had my radio gear with me for that one, but I’ll be sure to target Rickey for BPR soon. He was insightful, intelligent, open, polite (once leaving us to say something to a couple teammates, but stating loud enough for us to hear that “I have to finish this interview; I’ll be back”), and he never once referred to himself in the third person. This summer, I spoke to Barry Bonds and Rickey Henderson–two of the best players I’ve ever had the privilege of seeing play. I’m grateful and humbled by the experience and opportunity.
And if that’s not enough, there’s a new edition of Baseball Prospectus Radio up. The lead guests are myself and Derek Zumsteg, getting grilled by Scott McCauley on what our weeks were like in the wake of the Pete Rose revelations. If you’re not sick of hearing about it–as Jayson Stark calls it, “The story that never ends”–then it’s a pretty good show and the first I ever recorded with no coffee in me.
Pudge Rodriguez and Jorge Posada’s great seasons have been lost in the shuffle in Florida and New York. Reggie Sanders, Jason Kendall and company have caught fire in the second half in Pittsburgh. These and other news and notes from the Marlins, Yankees, and Pirates in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
Barry Bonds is good, and everyone seems to know it. Dusty Baker prefers speed to power. And Doug Glanville apparently isn’t a fan of The Osbournes. All this and many more quips in your Monday edition of The Week In Quotes.
The strained hip should have been a signal. People came out of the woodwork, claiming that Mark Mulder had been experiencing pain for weeks, but again, the leakproof A’s kept the information out of the hands of everyone who follows injury information. Mulder’s injury, as you know, is a stress fracture, not a muscle strain–but what does that mean? The definition of stress fracture is clear cut, but the specifics of Mulder’s acetabular fracture are much less clear. First, we have no clear cut facts from media reports or sources. Second, the information is a bit unclear. Most reports have the fracture in the femoral head, or acetabulum. Most stress fractures of this type happen at the femoral neck. Add in the note from Susan Slusser that Mulder cannot golf and could have “broken his leg,” and the signs point to the neck again.
Bottom line: Mulder is, for all intents and purposes, done for 2003, both regular and post-season. But what does this injury mean to Mulder’s future? Hip injuries are notoriously slow to heal due to poor blood flow in the area, but I haven’t heard anyone trotting out the Bo Jackson comparisons yet, and hopefully they won’t. With proper healing on a normal timeframe, there’s little to indicate that Mulder couldn’t return for 2004 fully healthy.