Is Michael Tucker really going to bat third for the Giants on a permanent basis? The Giants chapter in BP ’04 (you have your copy, right?) homed in on the indecent degree to which the Giants depended upon Barry Bonds for their offensive production last season. Well, a rewrite may be in order. Not since Liam Neeson defiled his career by appearing in Satisfaction has an elite performer been surrounded by such drek (yes, Julia, you’re drek).
The Braves improved their staff with a couple of nice trades. Despite an excellent spring, Grant Balfour isn’t the Twins’ current fifth starter. And Jose Cruz Jr. has begun the season on a good foot in Tampa Bay. All this and much more news from Atlanta, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay in your Wednesday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
As I sat at last night’s Indianapolis book event, I wondered if I’d be able to just enjoy a margarita after a great night of talking baseball. I didn’t even make it to the end of the signing, though, without the Nokia blowing up with news of injuries. So here I am, your faithful servant, to break down the breakdowns and hit you with the hurt. Maybe Thursday will be quieter… it’s a longer drive back from Cincinnati and the cell coverage isn’t so good on the way back.
So, powered by that imaginary salt and tequila elixir (Hey, Chris, is there anywhere I can get one in Chicago?), on to the injuries…
The White Sox may try and make a Juan Pierre out of Willie Harris. The Cardinals hope to shake off a rough Opening Day performance. The Rangers’ early schedule won’t do them any favors. These and other news and notes in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
As the owners and players jockeyed toward another mid-season labor showdown, the owner of one of MLB’s least efficient teams sought to set the record straight. Bud Selig announced: “The fact is, there are staggering cash operating losses in major league baseball today. …The enormous cost increase in player salaries is, by far, the biggest reason baseball has dire economic problems. Any charge other than that is clearly and totally unsubstantiated by the economic facts as they exist today.” MLB figures released after the season put the total of those “staggering cash operating losses” at less than 1% of revenue. In fact, player salaries had doubled since 1981. So had MLB’s revenue, as cable TV became an increasingly important source of income. Owners who reinvested their rights fees in payroll helped create a $300,000 gap between the major league minimum and the average salary. As the Braves and Pirates demonstrated, badly-run franchises could now waste more money than ever before.
Reports from Arizona have Luis Gonzalez making adjustments to compensate for his damaged elbow. The half-torn ligament is so problematic while throwing that Gonzalez is breaking out a sidearm throwing style for getting the ball back to the infield. Research from ASMI shows that throwing sidearm doesn’t significantly alter the forces placed on the arm. Gonzalez, we’ll note, says he’s having no problems at bat, just throwing. In addition to the sidearming, watch to see how Alex Cintron adjusts to help Gonzalez. Great quote today in the SF Chronicle: “Jason Schmidt threw in the bullpen for 14 minutes before Friday night’s game. His right shoulder remained attached to the rest of his body and he apparently did not shout in pain.” Jason Schmidt looked good in a workout, throwing all his pitches and coming away with only normal soreness. Schmidt is expected to slot back into the Giants rotation on the 14th. That slot is the first one where they’ll need a fifth starter. Schmidt wasn’t throwing at full tilt, but it’s exactly what the Giants were hoping for from this session.
The Braves’ bench looks ugly. The Dodgers make some nifty deals. The Mets inexplicably hand starting jobs to Tyler Yates and Scott Erickson. The Rangers unload Einar Diaz on the Expos. These and other happenings in today’s Transaction Analysis.
For the following survey, 13 members of the Baseball Prospectus staff submitted their predictions in time for publication, covering–among other things–divisional standings and end-of-season awards.
The scene is one Livan Hernandez still remembers perfectly…even if it’s been over six years. There he was on his knees, looking skyward and pounding his chest with both fists just seconds after the Florida Marlins had wrapped up the 1997 World Championship. A major contributor to the Marlins’ title run, Hernandez deserved his share of the spotlight in posting four victories in the League Championship Series and World Series combined. Just 22 at the time, the Cuban-born right-hander became the youngest pitcher ever to win a World Series opener. His reward: World Series MVP. But Hernandez has experienced his share of bumps in the road, posting just two winning seasons since 1998. He’s been questioned over the years for his inability to work out of trouble and stay in shape. Last season marked a strong rebound season, though, as Hernandez finished 8th in the majors in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) among all pitchers. On Tuesday he returns to Pro Player Stadium to handle Opening-Day duties against the Marlins. Montreal’s staff ace recently discussed his assignment in Miami, his World Series success and his career in Cuba, among other topics of conversation, with Baseball Prospectus.
Statistics are a tool, not unlike a microscope. Statistics are a hammer, a speculum, a thermometer. A statistics-based approach to understanding of baseball is one of many paths to knowledge of the game. Calling those who take that path “freaks” or “Nazis” makes as much sense as calling a Ph.D. chemist a wimp because he tests the qualities of his cyanide compound by means of Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy rather than just drinking the thing.
Let me count the e-mails asking me about Pedro Martinez’s arm slot and velocity during the game tonight…and probably more on the way. It’s a bit of a change for me, but after working with Tom House this off-season, I’m not worried about arm slot. If everything else is in line, the arm slot will find itself. Pedro’s velocity is only important in relation to his other pitches. He certainly didn’t look great on Sunday night, but one start isn’t something that should start a panic.
The Astros make some final roster changes before Opening Day. Chris Capuano will start the season with the Brewers. And the A’s look for fill-in options at second base after losing Mark Ellis. All this and much more news from Houston, Milwaukee, and Oakland in your Monday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
Between the time I submit this and the time you read it, Paul DePodesta may
have made another half-dozen deals that move the Dodgers up from their current
standing. Here’s what I’m going with for now…
If you’ve taken some time to explore the depth charts that are part of our new Fantasy product, you may have noticed the team-by-team projections for run scored, runs allowed, and W-L record. There’s a lot of hard work that went into generating these numbers. Runs scored are projected through what I believe to be very accurate lineup simulator program, combining the individual hitter PECOTAs and accounting for playing time at each position and in each batting order slot. Runs allowed are estimated in a similar fashion, and a W-L record is generated by combining these two figures by using the Pythagenport formula. These are good projections. I pretty much limit my gambling activities to poker and an NCAA Tournament pool or two (Go Yellow Jackets!), but if you happen to be in Vegas or something, you could make some good money by betting on these.
One thing the original version of the projections didn’t account for is strength of schedule. That never used to be much of a concern in baseball, but given both the imbalanced divisional schedule, and imbalanced interleague matchups, it can make a palpable bit of difference, especially in the case of a team like the Blue Jays that will play nearly a quarter of its schedule against the AL East Nuclear Superpowers.
With that in mind, let’s run through the divisions and evaluate each team in these departments…
Pokey takes over at short after Nomar hits the Red Sox DL. Paul DePodesta’s old mates gift him with Jayson Werth and Jason Grabowski. Clay Condrey may need to enter the witness protection program after landing in Philly. The Pads and Cards exchange crappy, speedy outfielders. These and other happenings in a special Saturday edition of Transaction Analysis.
Choosing between the top two teams in the American League is an exercise in predicting the future. Any analysis of the current rosters is going to be inadequate, because what will separate these two come September are the relative health of the teams’ stars, what the two teams do to add players in-season, and what happens in the 19 games the two will play against each other. In light of that, my selection of the Red Sox seems a bit strange. After all, they’ll play seven games against the Yankees this month without Nomar Garciaparra and Trot Nixon, two major parts of their lineup. Moreover, the Sox don’t have any obvious holes that they can address in the trade market, whereas the Yankees can get better by acquiring a second baseman and a starting pitcher. Moreover, the Yankees’ willingness to take on any contract at any time–a trait that should only become more pronounced after last week’s court victory that assures the YES Network of considerable revenue–means that they are a threat to acquire any player in the game. I’ll still take the Sox.