Dayn Perry did some great work last week. His Can \’O Corn column pointed out
how much of the difference between MLB and NFL \”competitive balance\”
is really a function of the shorter schedule. Sixteen is a very small number
of games, and serves to increase the amount of turnover in the playoffs each
year. There\’s just not enough time to recover from slumps, while luck and
injuries are much greater determinants of success and failure.
I want to look at that issue from a slightly different perspective. Consider,
if you will, the MLB standings as they would have looked through everyone\’s
13th game this year…
[Ed. Note: The Expos have scored 40 runs in 22 games through Wednesday, and are now 5-17]. That\’s not just league-worst, that\’s in the running for all-time worst. Thirty-six runs is a run-and-a-half a game in a season where normal teams are averaging five runs a game. They\’re hitting for a team line of .201/.283/.254. There are maybe–maybe–10 players qualifying for the batting title who are hitting worse than the Expos as a team. That\’s tough.
They would have to almost double their run-scoring to move up one spot in the standings (Tampa Bay, at 67, is second-worst). Of their five wins, one was 2-0 and the other four were one-run wins. They\’ve been shut out six times. Over a quarter of the time, they score no runs at all.
And that\’s just run-scoring. They\’re dead last in walks. Dead last in home runs. They\’re in the middle of the pack in strikeouts, which I\’m sure is small consolation to Frank Robinson. Their best regular, Jose Vidro, is down on the hitting leaderboard below the century mark, right alongside notable sluggers like Bobby Higginson and Omar Vizquel.
You might have noticed some construction going on around these parts. There\\\’s some dust and a bit of confusion, but I hope everyone is as psyched about the new design. Lots of work has been going on behind the scenes for months now, prepping to make BP a better experience. Bear with us as we work on things to give you more of what you pay your hard-earned money for.
One of those things lost in the shuffle of mail servers was UTK. It happens sometimes; no one\\\’s to blame, we just supersize and move on. So, after a night out with Christian Ruzich and TFD, I realize that I could talk baseball for hours. I got to do my Indy radio gig, talked with guys who stopped by for another hour, then beverages with two great guys after that. Life is good, and better now that the XM is installed in the Volvo. I\\\’m ready for next week\\\’s big trip. Let\\\’s get on to the injuries…
Can they keep it up?
At this writing, the Dodgers, at 12-6, are tied with the Red Sox for the second-best record in baseball. To be sure, it\’s terribly early, but it does make me wonder how likely the Dodgers are to continue playing well. They were already contenders in the relatively lusterless NL West, but most observers had L.A. tabbed for third place or worse.
There isn\’t a whole hell of a lot to do in Lansing, Michigan. There aren\’t any mountains, and there isn\’t any seacoast. The nearest amusement park is 400 miles away. There\’s a minor league ball team there now, but there wasn\’t when I grew up. There\’s a college there–a big, state university–with lots of college parties, and lots of college girls, and a lot of kids from Lansing start behaving like college students long before they really should. But even those with precocious synapses manage to sneak in a few years of relative innocence before learning what sororities and beer bongs are, and my synapses were late to the party. There\’s a big city not too far away, but to paraphrase W.C. Fields, the prevailing sense that one has when one is in Detroit is that, all things considered, one would rather be in Lansing.
So what you do a lot is drive. You drive past the cow farms and the meadows and rolling hills or whatever the hell they\’re called in the TripTik and the dilapidated country town with the antique store that your mother likes so much. You drive with your dad in an American-made sedan and you listen to Ernie Harwell and the Tigers. You drive at 62 m.p.h. past a shuttered-up farmhouse with peeling gray paint and a half-working windmill, and Steve Balboni stands there like a house by the side of the road and watches Frank Tanana\’s fastball go by, or that\’s what Ernie tells you. You drive and you listen and you daydream and you talk about baseball.
Given a discrepancy between \”Pythagorean Wins\” (what you\’d expect from a team given a specific runs scored/runs allowed set) and actual wins leads to all kinds of investigation, chin-scratching, nose-picking, and navel-gazing. Some people will say a team is \”stronger\” than its actual record because it\’s underperforming the formula, and so forth. Suspects for the gap typically include: Strength of bullpen Managerial use of bullpen Clutch hitting Clutch pitching Chemistry Managerial strategies in tight games Luck This leads to interesting observations and theories (team x is 12-0 in one run games, manager Joe\’s teams consistently outperform their Pythagorean record except when they don\’t) but rarely insight. It\’s not as bad as putting a couple of stats into a blender, pressing the \”pulse\” button a couple of times, and claiming the resulting undrinkable smoothie is some kind of innovation. But it\’s still a waste of time.
Cleveland Indians pitcher Jake Westbrook recently drew attention for an outstanding seven-inning perfect relief appearance. Interestingly enough, he retired the last batter he faced his previous appearance, and the first five batters of his next apperance (en route to a complete game win over the Tigers), for a total of 27 straight batters retired. There’s that “27” again–a perfect game, albeit one “hidden” across three appearances. Following Westbrook’s accomplishment, I became curious about the idea of “hidden” perfect games–instances where a pitcher retired 27 batters in a row, but may have done it across multiple appearances; i.e. the pitcher retired the last 15 batters he faced in one start, and the first 12 batters he faced in his next start, he would have a streak of 27 batters retired, and thus have a “hidden” perfect game. Relievers could qualify as well, if they had, for example, nine straight 1-2-3 one-inning appearances.
The term “breaking out of a slump” is too literal for Austin Kearns. An inside pitch broke a bone in his forearm, apparently very close to his wrist. Kearns will fly back to Cincinnati immediately for examination by Tim Kremchek. Once decisions are made about how he’ll be treated, we’ll be able to get a better handle on how long he’ll be out. Nate Silver might get to see what Wily Mo Pena can do with extended at-bats, but for the Reds’ fetish with Ryan Freel.
The Braves weren’t able to play one man short after all, and they pushed Chipper Jones to the DL. The impetus may have actually come from Julio Franco. Franco’s inner ear infection would have left the team two men down, thus the decision to disable Jones. Chipper wasn’t happy with the decision, but will deal with it. In the long term and even the short term, this will help him.
Despite living on the West Coast since 1989, I’m still an East Coast guy, and
as such, can occasionally show some of that famous East Coast media bias. That
was evident in yesterday’s column, when I picked apart the lessons from the
weekend’s big series in New York, while neglecting the games, just as big,
that division co-favorites played 3,000 miles away in Oakland.
Just as in the Bronx, the road team out west, the team generally considered to
be the underdog of the two, came out of the weekend with a sweep. Unlike in
the other series, however, the Angels and A’s played without the apocalyptic
hype that surrounds their Eastern counterparts.
Last week I identified some of the problems with the “Fan Cost Index” developed by Team Marketing Report. One of the biggest issues, TMR’s use of average ticket prices to calculate how much a typical family of four could expect to pay to see a game, has to be addressed on a team-by-team basis. This is the first of six articles that will do so. I’m starting with the AL East. My hypothetical customers decide a few weeks in advance which game they plan to attend, then shop for tickets on MLB.com. To keep the methodology constant, I’m ignoring any special knowledge I may have about a particular stadium’s seats, seating and ticketing policies, and relying entirely on what I can find on MLB.com.
Chad Tracy could help revive the struggling Snakes. Russell Branyan returns to the Indians. Torii Hunter’s return creates a crowded situation with Lew Ford swining a hot bat for the Twins. Endy Chavez returns to cause night sweats among Expos fans. These and other news and notes in today’s Transaction Analysis.
Who are best pitchers ever, according to UERA? Are the Devil Rays just an easy target? And what are the rules surrounding Rule 5 players anyway? All this and many more questions in your Monday edition of From The Mailbag.
Dusty Baker keeps talking about pitch counts. So does Eric Wedge. The Cardinals aren’t afraid of new information. Ken Griffey Jr. thinks he’s been misrepresented by the media. And Ozzie Guillen doesn’t understand why everyone’s so concerned with Mark Prior. All this and many more quips in your Monday edition of The Week In Quotes.
Moving Scott Schoeneweis into the starting rotation has been a good move for the White Sox. With all due respect to Jermaine Dye, Marco Scutaro has been the A’s most encouraging find of the season thus far. And Jim Thome has been the only hitter carrying his weight for the Phillies this season. All this and much more news from Chicago, Oakland, and Philadelphia in your Monday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
I was on Boston’s WEEI radio just after Opening Day and was asked, in a very concerned manner, whether the Red Sox could stay with the Yankees in April given their depleted state. I’m thinking we have an answer.
The Angels may have swept Oakland, but they have some problems facing them as they head into next week. Garret Anderson continues to fight upper back problems and current treatments haven’t reduced his symptoms. A decision will be made early this week about the DL. Given the team’s outfield depth, one would think that the Angels could afford to play it safe, but that depth has been already leveraged elsewhere. Vladimir Guerrero is still dealing with pain and swelling in his right knee (his pushoff leg for batting and throwing.) Regular rest and some DH time hasn’t reduced the symptoms, worrying many in the Angels’ front office. With all the options and possibilities, Mike Scioscia has some interesting decisions in front of him. The Braves are very concerned about the hamstring of Chipper Jones. The tear is healing up, but not as quickly as Chipper is telling people. He’ll stay off the DL for now, but Bobby Cox has been told to use him as a “desperation pinch-hitter” just in case the Braves need to retro him onto the DL.