At the end of January, I was fortunate enough to sit down and talk with executives from a couple of clubs, and reader response was heavy and extremely positive. So we’ve imposed once again on the executive of the AL Club who was so generous with his time back in January, and here’s what he had to say as we approach the final third of the season.
Bill Stoneman and Mike Scioscia get rewarded for 2002. The Indians and Rangers swap pitching prospect for hitting prospect. The Yankees grab Armando Benitez in a non-Sierran move. The Jays get a steal in Stewart-for-Kielty. These and other tidbits, plus a full array of Kahrlisms, in this edition of Transaction Analysis.
Much of the medhead buzz of the day has come around the widely reported declaration that Trevor Hoffman would like to return this year and pitch for the Padres. This goes on the list of things that might happen, but aren’t real likely, like winning the Powerball, being given the keys to my dream car, or having Sarah Michelle Gellar realize that Freddy Prinze Jr. is a tool and that she’d much rather spend time at the ballpark with me. The fact is that Hoffman’s return is slightly more likely than my fantasies, but it’s not something I’d count on either. Hoffman, at best, could put in a cameo appearance to close out Qualcomm and concentrate on being ready for 2004.
Jack Wilson left the Pirates game Thursday with a strained groin. There’s no word at deadline regarding the severity, so keep an eye on this to see how the Pirates will deal with it. Jose Hernandez gives Lloyd McLendon some options in the infield. If Pokey Reese is able to return in mid-August as planned, the Pirates will have…well, they’ll still have a big mess on the field, but Dave Littlefield at least seems to realize it.
Zach Day has rejoined the Expos and will likely be activated in time for a weekend start. Day is coming back from a small tear in his rotator cuff, but he’s had a very successful and incident-free rehab. I’m still quite worried about the short amount of time it took him to come back, but I’ll give a lot of credit to the Expos staff–they’ve been on the ball all year long.
The received sabermetric wisdom is that the breakeven point on stolen bases is a success rate of 67%; if you’re above that, you’re adding runs; if you’re not, you’re just hurting yourself. Now, that’s a broad stroke; for one, the run environment of the early 21st century is high enough to change the relative values of the base and the out, meaning that you want to be at least in the low 70s. For another, all situations are not created equal. Sometimes, you try and steal second base with a slower runner with two outs and a singles hitter up, especially in a close game. On the other hand, there’s little sense in trying to steal with no one out and a power hitter at the plate, even with the love child of Tim Raines and Carlos Beltran edging off of first.
The general point is that you can’t evaluate stolen bases in a vacuum. You have to consider the costs of the times you get caught stealing, and that cost is about twice the benefit of the stolen base. Regardless of how you adjust the numbers, though, there’s no way that the Tigers aren’t killing themselves on the bases with their 54% success rate. Had they never attempted a steal all year, they’d be a better offensive team for it.
Now, you’ll see this a lot with bad teams, especially bad teams that can’t hit. The general notion is that if you can’t hit you might as well run, in order to “make something happen.” The Marlins are doing this with a bit more success this year: they have an MLB-leading 108 stolen bases. Because they’ve been caught 45 times, however, all their running hasn’t amounted to much on the scoreboard; maybe an extra win, total.
The Indians front office is taking management advice from Charles Nagy. Guillermo Mota has been outstanding for the Dodgers. And any way you slice it, Jeff Cirillo has been a bust in the truest sense of the word. All this and much more news from Cleveland, Los Angeles, and Seattle in your Friday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
What I thought was interesting was the reaction to the Cubs’ end of the deal.
Tuesday night, I heard Betsy Ross praise the swap on SportsCenter, lauding the addition of Lofton’s veteran
leadership. She mentioned that the Cubs hadn’t been to the
postseason since 1998, which I supposed might have had some relevance in a
world where Marvin Miller was elected to public office in 1964 instead of
getting into baseball.
That kind of “analysis” trickles down. Yesterday afternoon, my good
friend Matt called from Boston to ask what his beloved Sawks might be doing in
the trade market. In the course of the conversation, he more or less repeated
the line about Lofton’s impact on the Cubs’ clubhouse.
I think the idea that the Cubs need veteran leadership is a crock. Take a look
at their lineup. On most days, they start old people at four positions,
including two players with World Series rings (Moises Alou
and Damian Miller) and another, Sammy Sosa,
who has some occasional experience in dealing with baseball-related pressure.
Was Eric Karros sitting around wetting himself over the idea
that he might not be able to perform in August and September, desperately
hoping the Cubs would acquire someone who could teach him?
OK, so it might not have been the most controversial thing he’s said this month–even our intrepid Derek Zumsteg didn’t dare sweat out this Dusty Baker gem. But the Cubbie manager also made the claim that older players fare better in the second half.
Dusty’s claim has at least some grounding in his own experience–under his management, the veteran-laden Giants were markedly better in the second half in both 2002 and 2000, and marginally better in 2001. (Over the course of his entire tenure, the record is far more ambiguous: in Dusty’s 10 seasons at the helm, the Giants played .535 ball before the first of July, and .546 after it). While the Cubs’ second half didn’t get off to a great start with the injuries to Corey Patterson and Mark Prior, it’d sure be nice to see them still in the race come September. The acquisitions of Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton have the Wrigley faithful in a frenzy; will Baker prove to be a sage or a charlatan?
Not to ruin the fun or anything, but this is a testable claim. By comparing the first and second half performances of players of various ages, we can see which ones really perform best down the stretch.
There seems to be some sort of cosmic injury analysis karma at work some weeks; when I write a ton one night, I usually get a slow day later in the week. For every burst of writing that surrounds a flurry of injuries, there are slow nights where I can sit around watching baseball rather than staring at my phone, waiting for someone to call and give me bad news. I have a dream that one day, there are a complete complement of games and not a single injury. I don’t think that anywhere in the geometry and art of baseball there can be a way to completely avoid traumatic injuries, but my dream day is possible. It will take great medical staffs throughout baseball, well-conditioned players, a lot of education, and a bit of luck, but it’s possible.
The Diamondbacks’ Brandon Webb offers another data point in the case for home run-preventing minor league pitchers succeeding in the majors. Royals staff ace Darrell May continues the success he had in Japan. The Phillies’ Rheal Cormier was the best reliever in the National League in the first half…for rheal. These and other news and notes out of Arizona, Kansas City, and Philadelphia in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
You’ve heard it all before: “We’re comfortable with our team,” “We’re going to go to battle with what we have,” or the best one of ’em all, “We don’t want to tamper with success.”
No matter how you slice it, though, each one of those phrases translates into the same thing: “Yes, we know we’ve got some gaping holes, but we don’t want to make a trade because we’re cheap, or we don’t think we’ll make it to the playoffs anyway.”
In the last two weeks, I divided up some current (or semi-current) major league pitchers with the idea of examining their minor league statistics and how those reflected on their major league performances. Group A was the “good” group. Peopled with active luminaries like Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, and Randy Johnson, Group A comprised all current pitchers who’ve spent the majority of their careers as starters and thrown, as of the end of 2002, at last 1,000 innings in the majors, all while posting a career park-adjusted ERA+ (the pitcher’s ERA relative to the league average) of at least 110 (meaning an ERA at least 10% better than the league average). Also in the mix are a handful of quality young arms who have pitched at least 500 innings and maintained a park-adjusted ERA+ of at least 120. Group B included all active pitchers who have, as of the end of the 2002 season, pitched at least 500 innings and posted a park-adjusted ERA+ of 95 or less (at least 5% worse than the league average). In both instances, I attempted to isolate those minor league innings that are developmental in nature–i.e., not an injury rehab assignment or late-career retread work. The results were quite surprising. Group B, those pitchers manifestly inferior at the highest level, outperformed the denizens of Group A in the minors in several key indicators (K/BB ratio, K/9, BB/9). Group A fared better in HR/9 and ERA. This led me to wonder two things: is home run rate an undervalued augury of success, and does Group A show a clear advantage in hit rate?
Lots of questions about J.D. Drew coming in the Inbox with his name coming up in trade rumors. Drew is well into his career and the idea that he’s suddenly going to become a player that is healthy for a full season is not impossible, but certainly not something any team should rely on. Instead of Mickey Mantle, I think Rondell White is a more likely comparable–when healthy, quite productive. In the right situation, handled properly, not saddled with the weight of expectations, and with the proper rest and backup, Drew could help a team.
Kazuhiro Sasaki had another bullpen session, this time with two main differences–more pitches and a crouching catcher. Sasaki is making sudden, rapid progress in his return from fractured ribs and the time off can do nothing but help his balky shoulder. With Arthur Rhodes and Jeff Nelson struggling some and no trade on the horizon, the M’s would welcome back Sasaki as soon as he can be effective.
As Edgar Martinez is slowed (if that’s possible) by a calf strain, the Mariners will rest him some and remind him that running really isn’t something they expect him to do. He hasn’t been the type that could run out an infield single at any point in his career. The M’s smart usage of Martinez gives us an interesting look into what might be the perfect situation for none other than Ken Griffey Jr.. With Martinez in the twilight of his career, Griffey could slot right into the DH that doesn’t run slot. While he’s a different type of hitter than Martinez, I think many could see him excelling in that slot and in that ballpark. I have no idea how that could work financially, but as we’ve seen, no deal is impossible if it works for everyone. Maybe, for Junior, he can go home again.
The Braves are a bunch of class clowns. The Twins are still in the race, despite being thoroughly mediocre. And the Devil Rays are looking ahead to the future because they don’t really have a choice. All this and many more tid-bits from Atlanta, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay in your Wednesday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
Dave Van Horne broadcasted baseball games for the Montreal Expos for 32 years, from the club’s inception in 1969 through to the Jeffrey Loria era. Since then he’s moved on to become play-by-play man for the Florida Marlins, where a new generation of fans have heard him use his trademark “Up, Up, and Away” home run call. In Part I of BP’s chat with Van Horne, we discussed breaking into baseball, calling the game, and a few pages of Expos history.
Esteban Loaiza’s had a Cy Young-caliber first half for the White Sox. Channeling the golf gods, the Cardinals rate as sub-par–in a good way. The Rangers continue to acquire young talent to put on the field with young stars Rodriguez, Blalock, and Teixeira. These and other news and notes out of Chicago, St. Louis, and Texas in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
There are a few things that came out after Randy Johnson’s first start back. First, Johnson had only minimal swelling in his knee after the start. That’s a very good sign. Second, he had exceptional command, getting more than 70% of his pitches through the strike zone. Next, a good Tivo-enabled look at his delivery showed that his soft landing took some of his velocity. According to Tom House’s book, The Pitching Edge, a stable front base is a must for transferring energy and thereby velocity.
As Junior Spivey and Danny Bautista return from the DL after significant time out, some of the younger players that have kept the Diamondbacks in the divisional race will get squeezed out of the roster, and sent back to Tucson. There’s no team in recent memory that went so far from the intended roster construction only to return to it later in the season, so I don’t have a good point of comparison.
Larry Walker and the Rockies are debating a trip to the DL after tests on his hip were inconclusive. A hernia still hasn’t been ruled out, and he was certainly moving gingerly last week in Pac Bell (Granted, so was Barry Bonds). There’s confusing noise coming from Colorado on this one, so it seems like the trip to the DL would solve Clint Hurdle’s roster challenges and give Walker a chance to heal himself up from whatever it is that’s ailing him.