You’ll recall that for the last two weeks we’ve looked at the divergent paths, in terms of power, of two distinct groups of minor-league hitters. The first, deftly named Group A, comprised the top 25 active leaders in slugging percentage who had at least 3,000 major league ABs as of the end of the 2002 season. Group B consisted of hitters who, despite putting up strong minor league power numbers, failed to bust out the lumber at the highest level. To populate Group B, I included anyone with a career minor league SLG of at least 0.490, at least a 10% decline in their SLG in the majors and at least 1,750 ABs in the majors.
I chose those in Group B specifically for their high minor league SLGs, so it’s neither surprising nor interesting that they would outslug those in Group A. What might inspire a spit-take is the fact that they also bested Group A in every peripheral power indicator. So what gives?
Maybe it’s command of the strike zone that forecasts power better than actual power indicators. Sounds counterintuitive, but, hell, I’m running out of ideas. So to test this theory, we’ll look at the following measures:
I guess that groin is healthy. Mike Piazza’s return from an extended stay on the DL was just about as successful as possible. Two singles, a home run, and five RBI before being lifted for a pinch-runner in the seventh inning equals a very impressive first day back on the job. This is a pattern we’re likely to see for Piazza: catch seven innings, and if there’s a significant lead or deficit, he’ll be pulled. Many will anticipate that in some instances, he’ll be moved to first for the last couple innings. I’m not sure how much we’ll see that this season. The Mets will only have Cliff Floyd for a few more weeks. While I don’t have the specific date yet, Floyd’s surgery is expected to come before September 1 and perhaps as early as late next week. He’s always been something of a protégé to Mark McGwire, but something Jason Giambi doesn’t want to emulate is Big Mac’s penchant for the DL. Giambi has always been a durable player, appearing in 140 or more games in every year he’s played since 1995. Giambi is now dealing with mild patellar tendinitis, a condition that deteriorated rapidly for McGwire and ended his career. There’s some short-term concern here–Joe Torre can spot in Nick Johnson or Todd Zeile if necessary, but either one would be a downgrade, especially Zeile–but for the Yankees, this condition is one that could come back and haunt its decision to give Giambi such a long-term deal. Let me be clear: Giambi’s tendinitis is not much more than an annoyance at this stage, and with proper care, he can possibly avoid McGwire’s fate. But it’s a fact worth knowing.
The Orioles scored a windfall in their trade of Sidney Ponson. The Rockies’ pitching has shockingly been worse on the road than at home. The Mets need to get a first baseman’s mitt for Mike Piazza. These and other news and notes out of Baltimore, Colorado, and New York in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
If Pete Rose is, in fact, reinstated after the season, as previously reported, he becomes eligible to be placed on the Hall of Fame ballot. For many fans, his on-the-field qualifications are a foregone conclusion. As baseball’s all-time hits leader, 17-time All Star, the 1973 MVP, and key member of the Big Red Machine, it’s hard to deny that Rose has some impressive credentials. And indeed, baseball fans voted him onto the All-Century Team as one of the finest players of the 20th century. However, there’s been a reassessment of Rose’s value as a player over the past 15 years, as sabermetrics has advanced our understanding of how offenses work, and how teams win. As the importance of On-Base Percentage has been recognized, and measures such as OPS (On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging average) have become popular, Rose has become a poster boy for the overrated star–one whose game consisted of hitting a lot of singles, and posting a high but empty batting average. Some have gone as far as to say that Rose doesn’t deserve to be in the Hall of Fame on the merits of his playing career, even excluding any gambling controversy. But is this a revisionist history by the statheads, or an honest, updated assessment of a former star?
For the third season in a row, Barry Bonds is the best player in the National League. His overall performance is stupendous–.341/.521/.755–so good that even a peak performance by Albert Pujols–.370/.436/.686–doesn’t quite measure up. Bonds’ significant performance edge makes up for Pujols’ extra playing time, so he leads in advanced metrics like Runs Above Replacement Position (RARP) and Value Over Replacement Player (VORP).
Whether Bonds will be able to win his sixth Most Valuable Player award is yet to be seen. He is the biggest reason for the Giants’ runaway in the NL West, but he’ll be fighting some biases. In recent years, BBWAA awards have become about the best story, and Pujols is seen in many quarters to be the better story. If the Cardinals earn a playoff spot, Pujols will be perceived as the reason, despite the fact that three of his teammates (Edgar Renteria, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen) are also among the 10 best players in the league.
Ramiro Mendoza mercifully heads to the DL for the Red Sox. Sandy Alomar Jr. is a waste of space for the White Sox. The Indians and Blue Jays sort through their multiple catching options. The Twins continue to jerk around their young talent. The Giants’ big lead may get a lot smaller without their starting middle infield. These and other tidbits and Kahrlisms in this edition of Transaction Analysis.
Was J.D. Drew held out of games in anticipation of a trade? That remains unclear, but according to the Cardinals, Drew has an oblique strain that he suffered during batting practice on Saturday. Drew was not in the lineup for a fifth consecutive day when the Pirates took on the Cardinals, Tuesday. It is unclear when Drew may return to the lineup.
Reports differ on the return date for Mike Piazza, but suffice it to say it will happen soon. Adding to the intrigue are published reports that Piazza intends to ask out, in order to continue catching, and to spare himself from what he sees as a long rebuilding process. Piazza had expressed interest in extending his rehab assignment in order to make sure he’s not rusty upon his return, but the call-up could come as early as Wednesday. In Norfolk, Piazza has passed every test.
Rick Reed has had his share of injuries this season, as have most of his mates in the Twins rotation. And yet, the AL Central crown is still within reach, so each injury is of magnified importance. Joe Mays took the hill in place of Reed in Tuesday’s game and was as successful as he had been earlier in the season. The Twins are surely looking on the horizon for help from Eric Milton.
The Red Sox ended Tuesday night four games behind the Yankees in the AL East. What are the odds that they can make up that deficit to take the division? And, failing that, what are their chances to edge out the A’s for the wild card?
Seriously. Grab a pencil and a piece of paper, come up with your best guesstimate, and write it down. Harder than you thought, huh? Keep reading, and we’ll have an answer for you in a bit.
Whether they realize it or not, major league teams are making calculations like this all the time. Implicitly or explicitly, they can determine the direction that a team chooses to take: whether to move prospects for veterans at the trade deadline, whether to shut a young pitcher down for the season, or try (injury risk be damned) to get as much work out of him as they can. Wins are the currency that baseball transacts in, but for many purposes, they’re only as good as the pennants and postseason appearances that they can be redeemed for. Much as some pundits like to talk about Mystique, Aura, and Veteran Leadership, the postseason is a lottery of sorts. Winning 11 playoff games is often a lot easier than winning 90 or 95 in the regular season, and many teams consider their season a success if their postseason ticket is punched, and they get to take their chance in the playoffs.
Pete Rose and Major League Baseball have reached an agreement that would allow him to return to baseball in 2004, and includes no admission of wrongdoing by Rose, Baseball Prospectus has learned. According to several sources, Rose signed the agreement after a series of pre-season meetings between Rose, Hall of Fame member Mike Schmidt, and at different times, high-level representatives of Major League Baseball, including Bob DuPuy, Major League Baseball’s Chief Operating Officer, and Allan H. “Bud” Selig, Commissioner of Major League Baseball.
Bill Mueller caps off one of the most improbable offensive nights in history; the Reds are taking steps toward changing the direction of their club; Mark Loretta and Rod Beck are playing their ways into San Diego’s future. All this and much more news from Boston, Cincinnati, and San Diego in your Tuesday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
It only seems like the Reds spend more time in Beacon Orthopaedic Center than they do in Great American Ballpark. Austin Kearns will go under Tim Kremchek’s knife on Thursday in order to diagnose and repair the lingering injury to the young outfielder’s shoulder. This surgery will come over a month after Kearns last played, due to an unsuccessful attempt to rehabilitate the injury without surgical intervention. The results of the surgery will determine the timetable on the young star’s return, but it will be a long winter of discontent for the Reds and their fans.
Every time you think you’ve heard everything, there’s something else. Carlos Beltran missed time after hyperextending his elbow–and more time because he forgot to take his anti-inflammatories. I’d recommend one of the cool little pill reminders that I got my grandmother a couple years back from Sharper Image, but she didn’t use it. Beltran got a good lecture and will probably not forget to take his pills. Expect him back in the lineup by Friday at the latest.
The Angels are fresh out of miracles, so Troy Glaus is heading to see Lewis Yocum for an opinion on his problematic shoulder. Conservative treatment and rest hasn’t helped and continued soreness has ended a rehab assignment for the time being. Surgery is a possibility and there’s a definite chance that Glaus is done for the season.
There’s no such thing as a pitching prospect.
I probably use that phrase a couple of times a week. It comes up a lot around trade-deadline time, as teams swap known quantities for unknowns in Double-A or lower and make a big deal about how those guys will be throwing 200 innings and saving 30 games in a few years’ time. It doesn’t happen that way.
What does it mean, though? Clearly, hundreds of young men pitch for baseball teams below the level of the major leagues, and many of them have the chance to become major-league pitchers. They’re prospective ones, so literally, the phrase is untrue. Pithy, but untrue.
I’ve already ruined any number of Padres seasons by writing columns on them right as they were peaking, so I waited on the Fish. I can’t wait anymore. Even after yesterday’s 5-4 loss to the Brewers, the Marlins are at 64-53, tied with the Phillies for the NL Wild-Card lead. It’s a great story for a team that has already provided some of the more interesting individual angles in the 2003 season. Dontrelle Willis made the All-Star team and will probably be the NL Rookie of the Year, even though he won’t deserve it. Mike Lowell, cancer survivor, is having his best season. The Fish are now managed by Jack McKeon, who is 72 years old and has never been to the postseason as a manager.
In a recent article, Derek Zumsteg recounted how bothersome it is to hear constant complaining about the Yankees dominating the game, especially because, well, they aren’t dominating the game. As Derek points out, the recent collective bargaining agreement requires that the Yankees pay their competitors for the privilege of employing Aaron Boone or, for that matter, Jose Contreras. Although the CBA does not mention the Yankees by name, much of the revenue sharing provisions will likely not affect anyone but them, and no one was really fooled by what the goal was. The recent CBA is not the first attempt to stack the deck against the Bronx Bombers.
Derek Jeter doesn’t think you can measure defensive performance. Brian Buchanan isn’t too good at laying one down. Umpire Tim Welke admits he was wrong; the Rockies don’t care. Marcus Giles wants to fight the scorekeeper. And Warren Spahn thinks the DL is for wimps. All this and many more quips for yout Monday edition of The Week In Quotes.
The Marlins pitching staff has carried the team into the thick of the Wild Card race. Soriano and Jeter are heading in opposite directions for the Yankees. The Pirates’ kids are all right. These and other news and notes out of Florida, New York, and Pittsburgh in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.