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BEST AMERICAN LEAGUE MATCH-UP (Best combined records with both teams being
over .500)
Anaheim @ Boston

    In which we stumble into a matchup relevant to a wild-card race. Not only do
    these two teams have the best combined records of the 15 matchups in the early
    part of the week, they are also the two hottest squads in baseball. The Red
    Sox are 12-1 of late and the Angels are 12-2.

    Compare and contrast: among the 15 Angels players with the most playing time,
    only Jeff DaVanon and the now-activated Troy
    are drawing one walk every ten at-bats. The Red Sox, on the
    other hand, have ten of their most-active 15 over that mark. That helps
    explain how a team can lead the league in scoring in spite of a wiped-out
    Trot Nixon season and only a month’s worth of at-bats from
    Nomar Garciaparra, replacing them with a combined 500 plate
    appearances from Gabe Kapler and Pokey

    Boston has out-walked Anaheim 1.5:1. The Angels are in dead last in the
    American League in walks with 348, a number that looks even worse when you
    consider that it includes a league-high 39 intentionals. They do make up for
    this somewhat by leading the league in getting hit by pitches, an advantage
    they promptly squander by having the second-most sacrifice bunts in the
    league. The Angels also compensate with a pretty good theft record. (Oddly,
    the teams with the five best stealing rates in the AL are, in order, one
    through five in total steal attempts.)

    Come to think of it, the Angels are always up to something. In fact, let’s
    invent a new stat to measure that. We’ll call it the U2S number: U2S = Up To
    Something, acronymed in the Prince style. U2S means how often a team is doing
    something on the basepaths. It’s a little number you can quickly do yourself
    to see how busy a team is on the once they get to first base. It combines
    steals, caught stealing, sacrifice hits and sacrifice flies. Not surprisingly,
    the Angels are the busiest in the American League with 1.78 such events per
    game. Let’s see if you can guess the three least-busiest in the league…poke
    yourself in the eye with a slide rule if you didn’t say:


BEST NATIONAL LEAGUE MATCH-UP (Best combined records with both teams being
over .500)
San Diego @ St. Louis

    Looking at the same number in the National League, we find the Cardinals on
    top with 1.9 such incidents per game. Their first opponents this week, the
    Padres, are 14th, with just 1.18. This is not an especially telling number in
    terms of predicting team record in that there are good and bad teams on both
    ends of the spectrum. For one thing, the inclusion of sacrifice flies is
    probably suspect, but what I was looking for was a quick way to count post
    first-base activity without having to check score sheets for hit-and-run plays
    and runners being gunned down trying to take extra bases. It does help
    illustrate a manager’s approach.

    So, I guess what I’m saying is: don’t look for me to be winning the Best New
    Stat Award at this year’s annual Prospies (televised on the WB, Tuesday night,
    November 30).

    Most teams–even the very good ones–have an albatross in their rotation for
    at least part of the season. In 2004, of the 12 teams that still have the best
    shot to reach the playoffs, none have had to carry a bigger burden in their
    starting rotation than the Dodgers have with Hideo Nomo.
    Among pitchers with at least ten starts for contending teams, Nomo’s -16.9
    VORP is the worst. Fortunately for Los Angeles, it’s only been over the course
    of 67 innings. Conversely, the Cardinals’ most burdensome starter has not been
    that much of a burden. In spite of being the weak link in the Cardinal
    rotation, one cannot picture Matt Morris not getting a start
    come playoff time. A number of these other fellows will probably not be given
    the ball should their teams persevere, however:

    (Ten lowest VORPs among starting pitchers on contenders, minimum ten starts):

    -16.9: Hideo Nomo, Los Angeles
    -9.3: Derek Lowe, Boston
    -6.0: R.A. Dickey, Texas
    -1.7: Ismael Valdez, San Diego (now with Florida)
    0.0: Joaquin Benoit, Texas
    0.0: Jose Contreras, Yankees (now with White Sox)
    4.3: Mike Mussina, Yankees
    4.8: Kirk Rueter, San Francisco
    5.9: Kyle Lohse, Minnesota
    6.1: Brett Tomko, San Francisco
    10.2: Bartolo Colon, Anaheim

    Here are the low men from the remaining contenders:

    10.5: Mike Hampton, Atlanta
    11.1: Mark Prior, Cubs
    13.5: Matt Morris, St. Louis
    19.4: Mark Redman, Oakland

    Redman would rank third on four of the other A.L. contenders and fourth on
    Minnesota. He’d be third on the Braves and second on the Giants.

MISMATCH-UP (opponents furthest from each other in won-lost records with
the better team over .500 and the lesser team under)
: Los Angeles @

    When the 2004 season began, these teams were about equal in the consensus
    among predictors. Now, heading into September, they are 35 games apart, which
    means they could finish with a spread of 40 by the time they’re done. How did
    folks miss by so much on the Diamondbacks? Moreover, is this one of the
    biggest mass mis-predictions in history? This is a rhetorical question,
    really, as to discover the answer to that would require a library of magazines
    few have at their disposal. Fortunately, Mark Armour has a number of vintage
    Sport magazines from the ’60s that contain their annual preseason poll.

    A number of teams selected to repeat by the players did not–that’s not
    especially shocking. The biggest bomb out of the period was the 1967 Orioles,
    who fell to 76 wins and sixth place after humiliating the Dodgers in the World
    Series the year before. Even that’s only about 20 games below what was
    expected, however. (The ’68 favorite Minnesota Twins met a similar fate,
    finishing seventh, while the ’68 White Sox–picked for second–plummeted to
    ninth.) The one pick that might surprise you from this period came in 1965
    when the players anticipated the end of the Yankee dynasty and tabbed them for
    fifth, this after 15 pennants in 18 years. The Bombers nearly obliged, coming
    in sixth.

    We do know that Sports Illustrated made an infamous pick regarding the
    1987 Indians, calling them the best team in the league and putting them on the
    cover of their preseason issue. What I cannot recall is if this was an
    iconoclastic choice on their part or representative of a general feeling at
    the time. Like this year’s Diamondbacks, the Indians had gone 84-78 the year
    before. They finished with 61 wins, a number Arizona would have to play until
    November 1 to see.

    One of the more optimistic outlooks that doesn’t stand up to hindsight I could
    find belongs to the late Gil Hodges. The Dodgers let him go
    in the expansion draft, allowing the Mets to bring him back to New York for
    their inaugural season. Given that the Los Angeles Angels had just had a
    pretty decent run in their first year (70-91), it probably wasn’t considered
    too outrageous when Hodges said, “We have a chance to finish fifth. That will
    depend on the pitching, but fifth place is not a far-fetched idea – not in the
    National League.” That was in The Sporting News on February 14, 1962. Of
    course, we’re discussing media picks here, not players (at least not the ones
    who had the anonymity of the Sport poll), so we shouldn’t judge Hodges
    too harshly. After all, we expect subjectivity from players. Had Hodges said,
    “We’ll be lucky to finish in the league with this pack of bums,” eyebrows
    would have been raised on high. As Mr. Armour points out, though, Hodges’
    outlook was not a feeling shared by the media. He reminds us that Roger Angell
    had the Mets number by March of that year.

TEAMS GOING WORST MATCH-UP (worst combined records in most recent
: Pittsburgh @ Milwaukee

    A combined 2-18 over their respective last ten games as they both scramble to
    get to the level predicted for them before the season began. Actually, that’s
    not quite true of the Pirates. McClendon’s Mood Swingers have done the
    following since the start of post-All-Star break play:


    So that’s 21-22, much better than most expected of them for the year. The
    Brewers, on the other hand, have won back-to-back games only once during the
    same time period. I would equate their season to the attempts made to solve
    the Oak Island Mystery: lots of holes filling up with water and no way to bail
    quickly enough.

    As of right now, the Brewers only have a handful of players making any kind of
    headway in this thing we call reality. Lyle Overbay is the
    sole position player meriting mention, while Ben Sheets,
    Doug Davis and Dan Kolb are representing for
    the pitching corps. Brooks Kieschnick deserves a mention for
    the unique work he’s done in his combined role of reliever/pinch-hitter. It’s
    OK to admit you were pretty happy to have Kolb as the closer on your fantasy
    team back at the All-Star break. Little did you know he’d have so damn few
    opportunities in the second half. The good news is, he’s saved seven of the
    Brewers 10 wins since then; that’s above average. Usually, only about half of
    all games result in a save. So, Kolbsters, at least you have those oases in
    this desert bereft of victory.

Thank you for reading

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