keyboard_arrow_uptop
Baseball Prospectus is looking for a Public Data Services Director. Read the description here.


Advance Scouting Report

Filed by: Erich Rothmann

Player Name: Jose Bautista

Context: 4 Games; 7/17/2017 – 7/20/2017 (vs. Boston)

PA

AB

H

1st P

K

BB

TB

Hard

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

TOTALS

21

18

2

2

7

2

4

3

.111

.190

.222

.413

Sample vs. Season:

Brutal series and season numbers are clearly better; except for a 20-game stretch in May, overall production has declined significantly; walking less and striking out more; weaker and less frequent contact.

SCOUTING BREAKDOWN

Physical/Health:

Listed at 6-foot and 205 pounds; lean, muscular build; decent athlete for a 36-year-old although he has clearly lost a step or two; no reported injuries so far this season.

Hit Tool

A plus hitter during his prime; currently an average hitter at best but still has a great eye and will often make opposing pitcher work; very willing to walk; positioned at the back of the box; appears to uses bat wiggle to help with timing; leg kick as he swings; leveraged swing; nearly half of this season’s hits have been fly balls; will pull the ball about half the time although using opposite field more this year compared to 2016; above-average bat speed but no longer elite; plate coverage has also declined; turns on middle-low inside pitches very well but struggles to cover outside part of the plate and get on top of high fastballs; higher swing and miss rate on breaking balls this season. – Grade: 45

vs. LHP

Career .257 AVG and .369 OBP; nearly identical career splits; generally does not alter swing and approach against lefties; .161 AVG and .288 OBP this year (likely sample size bias – only 104 plate appearances so far).

vs. RHP

Career .252 AVG and .365 OBP; .249 AVG and .357 OBP in 311 plate appearances this year; the two batted balls’ spray charts below show similar distributions when factoring in sample size differences.

Notable At-bats

Date

Description

7/18/17

Sixth inning vs. Brian Johnson (LHP); First pitch FB 88 high and outside (ball); second pitch CB 73 low and inside (ball); third pitch SL 79 low and inside (swing and miss); fourth pitch high FB 86; fifth pitch FB 87 left up over middle but hit foul and nearly caught by RF Mookie Betts; sixth pitch foul tip on high FB 88; final pitch swinging strike three on SL 80 low and outside; displayed good plate discipline early in at-bat but also his struggles against high fastballs (even below-average velocity in this case) and breaking balls, particularly the slider (average grade).

7/19/17

First inning vs. Drew Pomeranz (LHP); First pitch high and outside FB 91 (ball); second pitch inside FB 91 (ball); final pitch inside FB 92 that he turned on and drove to left field (but directly to Benintendi); looked very comfortable and clearly kept sitting inside fastball; mistake by Pomeranz.

Power

Power is still plus but no longer elite; generates power from his pure strength, swing loft, and above-average bat speed; more effort required to drive the ball than in past seasons; pulls the vast majority of his home runs; hard contact rate has decreased significantly but will still make pitchers pay if they make mistakes. – Grade: 60

vs. LHP

Career .492 SLG; nearly identical career splits; .261 SLG this year; again likely due to sample size bias.

vs. RHP

Career .486 SLG; .449 SLG this year.

Notable At-bats

Date

Description

7/19/17

Fifth inning vs. Pomeranz; First pitch FB 92 low and inside (ball); second pitch called strike FB 91 inside; third pitch CB 80 low and inside (ball); fourth pitch CB 79 high and outside (ball); fifth pitch FB 95 inside pulled foul; sixth pitch outside FB 94 results in a sac fly to Betts; sitting fastball last two pitches; no home runs in this series yet encouraging to see him flash some opposite field power while covering the outside part of the plate; don’t expect these opposite field fly outs to become homers though.

Speed/ Baserunning and Fielding

Poor speed and acceleration; typically no threat to steal; not a very aggressive baserunner; still has a plus arm; routes are fine; limited range in right due to lack of speed and first step quickness; willing to sacrifice his body at times, such as a diving play to his left that robbed Sandy Leon of a base hit during the sixth inning of the 7/20 game. – Speed Grade: 30; Arm Grade: 60; Glove Grade: 40.

Conclusions and Means of Attack

Father time has clearly caught up with him; bat speed and plate coverage have declined; still shows good plate discipline and can take advantage of mistakes; opposing pitchers should throw to the outer half of the plate; attack with a heavy dose of breaking balls and high fastballs; FB% is indeed a career low 48.5%; also known for being a fiery and moody player.

Recommendation to Acquire?

Bautista is more of a role player at this point but can still help a contending team down the stretch; a trade may bring out the best of him as he thrives when playing with a chip on his shoulder; brings valuable playoff experience and his personality is best suited on a winning team; will need periodic rest going forward; limited defensive range but arm is still a weapon; should split time in RF and at DH going forward; buyer’s market for rental position players, so it makes sense to pursue a trade for him if the asking price does not include significant prospects.


Thank you for reading

This is a free article. If you enjoyed it, consider subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. Subscriptions support ongoing public baseball research and analysis in an increasingly proprietary environment.

Subscribe now
You need to be logged in to comment. Login or Subscribe