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Last Year’s Nationals List

The State of the System: The top half of this list stacks up with any organization in baseball, but the lack of overall system depth or close-to-the-majors bats leaves the Nats system as “merely good."

The Top Ten

  1. CF Victor Robles
  2. RHP Lucas Giolito
  3. ​RHP Reynaldo Lopez
  4. OF Juan Soto
  5. RHP Erick Fedde
  6. SS Carter Kieboom
  7. RHP Dane Dunning
  8. 3B Anderson Franco
  9. OF Andrew Stevenson
  10. IF Sheldon Neuse

The Big Question: What if Lucas Giolito is a reliever?

Since we started filing eyewitness reports at Baseball Prospectus in 2013, our prospect writers have submitted exactly five carrying an OFP 80.

All five were on Lucas Giolito.

Five reports, by four different evaluators, across thirteen months. And a few hundred words from now, we are going to amend those with: “Well, about that…”

There is a school of thought that suggests player evaluation is best approached via tabula rasa. One of my predecessors, Jason Parks, used to remark about how he loved trying to identify the best players on the backfields in Spring or instructs, with no identifying information to go on, no idea which skinny teenager got five thousand or five hundred thousand.

Meanwhile, I like to joke that I don’t really like doing much amateur coverage, because on the pro side the hard work is already done for me.

But let’s say you didn’t know anything about Lucas Giolito past the 2016 reports. A fastball that sits in the mid-nineties, a potential hammer curve, but command issues with both that allow better hitters to sit on the heater and be rewarded for it. You wouldn’t immediately be moving this prospect to the bullpen of course. The body and delivery looks like a starter, and he’s only 22 (you got that from the roster sheet in the press box). It wouldn’t be off the table though.

This is reductive, of course, and in addition requires a jaundiced eye. Context matters. Giolito has been better in the past. However, I don’t think it is a stretch to say the kid that was hitting 100 in the Area Code Games is not showing up in the majors. I guess you could even reframe the ‘big question’ as the less clickbaity “How long does prospect pedigree matter?”

It’s easier to handle a prospect who has broken out. He is showing you something new, what is now possible. Victor Robles and Juan Soto both have fallen into this category the last two summers. And I think public evaluators are more easily swayed by this kind of novelty. We live for this shit, in fact. It beats writing about Jorge Alfaro and Gary Sanchez for the umpteenth year. And yes I know, cura te ipsum.

It’s harder to deal with a prospect that is stagnating or regressing. It’s easy to default to the assumption of a y = x development path for high-end prospects even though we know that is by far the exception in player development. Giolito is a particularly confounding case because he was both better in the past, but that, even then, there were obvious developmental hurdles still to go.

If you were to imagine the road to a 25th percentile outcome for 2014 80 OFP Lucas Giolito, it wouldn’t look all that different from what actually occurred. The velocity never really popped back to where it was pre-Tommy John surgery. The fastball/curve combo which overmatched A-ball bats stagnated a bit in the upper minors. The command profile remained fringy. The change improved, but didn’t “jump.” Even the best prospects in the minors still have to get better, often a lot better. Consider Archie Bradley. It’s not a fair comp, as Bradley had injury issues and lacked Giolitio’s “first prep righty to go 1:1” pre-draft profile, but as professional prospects they got similar acclaim and similar “tippy-top-of-the-rotation” projections. This for example could have easily been written by Jason about Lucas Giolito:

“Bradley is a true frontline power arm, with size, strength, and a highly intense arsenal that already features two well above-average offerings. The delivery can lack consistency and he struggles to finish his pitches, which can leave the ball up and arm side and cause his power curve to play too high in the zone. If the command continues to refine, a number one starter is a possible outcome; a true top-of-the-rotation starter capable of a heavy innings workload and gaudy strikeout totals.”

But Archie Bradley is not Lucas Giolito’s destiny. Nor is Giolito necessarily a reliever now. Extrapolating from 2016 is just as dangerous as doing it from 2014. This has not turned into a y = b situation. This is just a snapshot in time. The picture is just a bit fuzzier now.

Lucas Giolitio is still one of the best pitching prospects in the game. That ain’t nothing. But you can’t have the same OFP forever.

Or put another way:

“Unfortunately the clock is ticking, the hours are going by. The past increases, the future recedes. Possibilities decreasing, regrets mounting.”

– Haruki Murakami, Dance, Dance, Dance

***

1. Victor Robles, CF
DOB: 5/19/1997
Height/Weight: 6’0” 185 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Signed July 2013 by Washington out of the Dominican Republic for $225,000
Previous Ranking(s): #29 (Top 101), #3 (Org) 2016
2016 Stats: .262/.354/.387, 3 HR, 18 SB in 41 games at High-A Potomac, .305/.405/.459, 5 HR, 19 SB in 64 games at Low-A Hagerstown

The Good: There are very few five-tool, up-the-middle prospects in the minors, and even fewer of them turn into five-tool players in the majors. Robles has a shot. We may be squinting a bit to get the power to average, but we can say with more certainty the he offers three potential 70-grade tools— hit, run and arm— and has made strides with his center field defense (which projects as plus) in his first year of full-season ball. His approach is advanced for a 19-year-old, and he covers all four quadrants of the zone well. The bat speed is outstanding, and the barrel control to match is coming along. And zooming out, he’s more polished than you’d expect from the “toolsy 19-year-old center fielder in A-ball” cohort.

The Bad: Robles’ game power lags behind his other skills. It may come as he physically matures, but he may "only" creep into double-digit bombs in the majors. The hit tool is still mostly projection until we see him perform against more advanced arms. He could end up as more of a speed/glove 7-hole hitter in the majors.

The Irrelevant: We often harp on minor-league player nutrition, but Robles’ potential 2017 home, Harrisburg, PA, is home to Broad Street Market, one of the oldest continuously operating farmers' markets in the U.S.

The Role:

OFP 70 — That really good Lorenzo Cain season
Likely 60 — Those other Lorenzo Cain seasons

The Risks: The usual risks for this profile. He hasn’t hit in the upper minors yet, and he wasn’t quite as spectacular in his first taste of the Carolina League. The offensive tools are far less actualized than the defensive/athletic ones. He may take a bit of time to reach his projection, past just his Major League ETA.

Major league ETA: 2019

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Let’s face it, you either already own Robles or you missed the boat on him. Such is life with young, pre-elite fantasy prospects. It’s easy to fall in love with Robles and his projection as a future OF1. Take Starling Marte as an example of what a plus-hit tool and plus-plus speed can translate to at the MLB level; a .300-plus average, 40-plus steals and a ranking as the fifth-best fantasy OF in 2016, per ESPN’s Player Rater. That’s what we could be looking at with Robles, and while the hit tool and power have a ways to go, his floor as a speed-first OF 4/5 makes him mighty attractive. Now that he’s in High-A, lead time is becoming less of an issue, too.

2. Lucas Giolito, RHP
DOB: 07/14/1994
Height/Weight: 6’6” 255 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 16th overall in the 2012 draft, Harvard-Westlake HS (Los Angeles, CA); signed for $2.925 million
Previous Ranking(s): #3 (Top 101), #1 (Org) 2016
2016 Stats: 6.75 ERA, 7.87 DRA, 21.1 IP, 26 H, 12 BB, 11 K at the major league level, 2.17 ERA, 2.42 DRA, 37.1 IP, 31 H, 10 BB, 40 K at Triple-A Syracuse, 3.17 ERA, 3.71 DRA, 71 IP, 67 H, 34 BB, 72 K at Double-A Harrisburg

The Good: Giolito’s curveball, on raw stuff alone, is one of the most promising pitches in prospectdom, a potential 80-grade offering. His fastball has touched triple-digits in the past and will sometimes comfortably sit in the mid-90s with tremendous downward plane. The change flashes as more than a show-me pitch. He has a good idea of what he wants to do on the mound. There’s a lot of past history and previous looks supporting the idea that he’s a potential ace.

The Bad: Oh command, where art thou? Command was never the strength of his profile, but it disappeared for him in 2016, leading to huge struggles in the majors. He couldn’t spot his fastball well, leading to both too many balls and too many hittable strikes. He could only throw the curve as a chase pitch, which meant that better hitters just laid off it. Early in the 2016 season, media reports indicated these struggles were the result of overworked mechanics, but it didn’t get a whole lot better after Giolito was reported to have gotten past that issue. Just to top it off a bit, his fastball velocity was noticeably down pretty much all season compared to earlier pro looks.

The Irrelevant: Giolito is still eligible for this list, but could lose his prospect status by the time his uncle’s reboot of Twin Peaks hits the air in the second quarter of 2017. Hopefully the central mystery of Season 3 won’t be his nephew’s missing fastball command.

The Role:

OFP 70 — Possible top-of-the-rotation starter
Likely 60 — Mid-rotation starter or closer

The Risks: The command might never come around, or it could take years and years and a bunch of teams and pitching coaches. The fastball/curve combination should give him a pretty good relief fallback, at least. As a Tommy John survivor, there’s always that little extra bit of risk, too. Also, he’s a pitcher. —Jarrett Seidler

Major league ETA: Debuted in 2016

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Giolito is still the top dynasty pitching prospect in my book. The aforementioned command issues are worrisome, but there simply isn’t another arm in the minors who comes close to matching Giolito’s upside and proximity to the Majors. He might kill your WHIP at first, and the whispers of a future move to the bullpen are scary, but there’s also a meaningful chance that he’s a true SP1 with 225-plus strikeouts. His median fantasy outcome is Chris Archer, which makes his ceiling pretty special.

3. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP
DOB: 1/4/1994
Height/Weight: 6’0” 185 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Signed June 2012 by Washington out of the Dominican Republic for $17,000
Previous Ranking(s): #39 (Midseason Top 50), #75 (Top 101), #4 (Org) 2016
2016 Stats: 4.91 ERA, 4.58 DRA, 44 IP, 47 H, 22 BB, 42 K at the major league level, 3.27 ERA, 7.09 DRA, 33 IP, 21 H, 10 BB, 26 K at Triple-A Syracuse, 3.18 ERA, 1.50 DRA, 76.1 IP, 69 H, 25 BB, 100 K

The Good: Lopez rode a post-April hot streak in Double-A to Triple-A and eventually an August-September Major League residency. That residency included a nine-strikeout debut performance against the Dodgers and an 11-strikeout game versus the Braves. His plus arm speed generates a plus-plus fastball, an upper-70s-to-low-80s curveball that flashes plus, and feel for a potentially average cambio.

The Bad: The walk rate spiked and strike throwing consistency diminished after the promotion. The fastball tends to stay straight. The curveball, its shape and use in the zone, is quite volatile. The changeup can get hard and lose effectiveness. The pitch inefficiency and fastball reliance could limit Lopez to a relief role.

The Irrelevant: Lopez threw his fastest pitch of the year, a 99.7 mph heater, against the Mets on September 12th.

The Role:

OFP 60 — No. 3 starter
Likely 50 — Power Reliever

The Risks: If the minor league walk rates and efficiency can follow Lopez to the majors, there’s still middle of the rotation potential to be realized. The fallback of being a power reliever who can miss bats isn’t a terrible fate either. The fate of being a pitcher though, always makes things a bit more cloudy. —Adam Hayes

Major league ETA: Debuted in 2016

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Lopez may have a fairly low chance of actualizing as a no. 3 starter thanks to his size and command issues, but his strikeout potential and MLB ETA (of, you know, now) are too good for fantasy owners to pass up. Don’t pencil Lopez into your long-term rotation plans, but hope he turns into a 200-strikeout, high-WHIP no. 4 fantasy starter. A potential future at the back of a bullpen sooner rather than later gives him a lovely additional path to fantasy value, too.

4. Juan Soto, OF
DOB: 10/25/1998
Height/Weight: 6’1” 185 lbs
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: Signed in July 2015 out of the Dominican Republic for $1.5 million.
Previous Ranking(s): N/A
2016 Stats: .361/.410/.550, 5 HR, 5 SB in 45 games with the GCL Nationals. .429/.500/.571, 0 HR, 0 SB in 6 games with Low-A Auburn

The Good: Cineastes often complain that the sequel is never as good as the original, but the Nats had another teenaged outfielder breakout in the GCL and the NYPL this Summer, and Juan Soto is more The Curse of the Cat People than Honey, I Blew Up The Kid. While the circumstances of his breakout are similar to Victor Robles’, they are very different prospects. Soto doesn’t have the same loud, up-the-middle tools, but he may have shown an even more advanced bat in the New-York-Penn League. There’s a potential plus-hit/plus-power combo here with a good approach for his age.

The Bad: As lovely as the finger lakes are in the Summer, Auburn is a long ways from the majors. The game power is mostly theoretical at this point and Soto is limited to right field. He should be fine there long term as an average runner with enough arm for the position, but he is going to have to hit a lot.

The Irrelevant: Speaking of Auburn, since he was only there a week, we doubt Soto had time to visit the William H. Seward Museum, where Seward negotiated the purchase of Alaska from the Russians as Secretary of State.

The Role:

OFP 60 — Your prototypical good everyday right fielder
Likely 50 — Solid, but unspectacular corner dude

The Risks: Soto just turned 18. He hasn’t played outside of short-season ball yet. It’s a corner outfield profile. There’s extreme risk here even accounting for the advanced bat.

Major league ETA: 2020

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: If you’re going to gamble on players who are younger than the first Harry Potter book, they better have big-time offensive potential. Fortunately Soto does, and this type of hit-tool-first profile is one I prefer to gamble on in fantasy. He’s too far away to be a top-100 prospect yet, but now is a very good time to get in on the ground floor.

5. Erick Fedde, RHP
DOB: 2/25/1993
Height/Weight: 6’4” 180 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 18th overall in the 2014 draft out of University of Nevada, Las Vegas (NV); signed for $2.5111 million
Previous Ranking(s): #6 (2016) Org
2016 Stats: 3.99 ERA, 4.09 DRA, 29.1 IP, 33 H, 10 BB, 28 K at Double-A Harrisburg, 2.85 ERA, 1.61 DRA, 91.2 IP, 85 H, 19 BB, 95 K at High-A Potomac

The Good: Fedde found more velocity this year as he got further away from his 2014 Tommy John surgery. He sat in the mid-90s and touched higher, and his slider flashed plus. The fastball has enough life to be a swing-and-miss offering in the majors and the slider has a good chance to get to that point as well. At it’s best it features violent late, two-plane break. Fedde also has close to an ideal starting pitcher’s build.

The Bad: However, there is enough effort in his delivery to make you wonder if he will have the stamina/command profile to be a 180-inning arm. The changeup is still a work in progress, but can show split-like action at times. The slider is inconsistent and can be more of a chase pitch. He was a little bit old for A-ball for whatever that matters (I don’t think all that much).

The Irrelevant: Fedde was also an all-state soccer player in high school, leading Las Vegas High School to a state title his junior season.

The Role:

OFP 60 — No. 3 starter
Likely 50 — No. 4 starter with late-inning relief fallback

The Risks: Fedde has cleared every marker on his TJ recovery, and with his potential plus fastball/slider combo, he should find a major-league role of some sort. However he is still a pitcher (with a Tommy John already on his C.V.)

Major league ETA: Early 2018

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Fedde has flown under the radar a bit for a first-rounder, but he’s emerged as a solid, if unspectacular, dynasty pitching prospect. The lack of front-of-the-rotation stuff means he’ll get lumped in with a bunch of other mid-rotation starters in the mid-minors, but that might sell short his upside as a no. 5/6 fantasy SP in the Jerad Eickhoff mold. That might not get your heart racing, but you’ve started a lot worse. It’s a bit early in the process for me to tell exactly, but Fedde should be a back-of-the-top-100 prospect.

6. Carter Kieboom, SS
DOB: 09/03/1997
Height/Weight: 6'2” 190 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 28th overall in the 2016 draft, Walton HS (GA), signed for $2 million.
Previous Ranking(s): N/A
2016 Stats: .244/.323/.452, 4 HR, 1 SB in 36 games with the GCL Nationals

The Good: While not quite on the level of Moniak or Rutherford, Kieboom featured one of the best hit tools in the 2016 prep class. Despite a very open stance, long stride, and slight hitch, he always seems to find the ball with the barrel. He has a lean, athletic frame that could add pop as he adds strength in his twenties. His arm will play at either spot on the left-side of the diamond.

The Bad: Kieboom played shortstop in complex ball, but most think his ultimate defensive home is at third base once he fills out. It takes a bit of projection to see him wringing the expected corner infield-power profile out of his swing at present, so he may end up a bit of a tweener or utility type unless he really hits or adds average game power as he ages.

The Irrelevant: Confidential to @70mphfastball: Kieboom’s pro future was always going to be at the plate, but he was also a switch-pitcher in high school.

The Role:

OFP 55 – Solid everyday third baseman
Likely 45 – Second-division starter or good fifth infielder

The Risks: High, but about what you’d expect for the profile. A future corner role will put pressure on the power to come, and the developmental time here is significant.

Major league ETA: 2020

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Kieboom isn’t one of the premier dynasty prospects from the last draft class, but his bat is decent enough that you might consider him if your league rosters 200-plus prospects. Don’t bank on using him at shortstop, but Kieboom has the potential to serve as a low-end starting third basemen or a passable CI who’ll do more for your average than he will your power stats, assuming that he’s actually a baseball player and not, as his name suggests, an adult movie star.

7. Dane Dunning, RHP
DOB: 12/20/1994
Height/Weight: 6’4” 200 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 29th overall in the 2016 draft, University of Florida (FL), signed for $2 million
Previous Ranking(s): N/A
2016 Stats: 2.14 ERA, 2.93 DRA, 33.2 IP, 26 H, 7 BB, 29 K at Low-A Auburn

The Good: Shows strikeout potential, reliable command of his low to mid-90s fastball with late life. Clean mechanics paired with a deceptive delivery created by a late break in his hands pair well with his effective changeup.

The Bad: Having pitched out of the bullpen due the Gators’ overstocked pool of arms, there are legitimate questions as to how Dunning will hold up as a starter. His 11-5 curveball hasn’t shown the promise of his other pitches, and failing to get a handle on it could force a permanent relocation to the pen.

The Irrelevant: Dunning will often pitch wearing those strange hybrid glasses/goggles. Word is still out on his bespectacled splits.

The Role:

OFP 50 — Fourth Starter or set-up man
Likely 45 — Fifth Starter or reliable middle reliever

The Risks: Without much starting experience, Dunning may have trouble pitching deep into games. Failing to command his curveball would limit him to a fastball/change repertoire that would function fine out of the bullpen but likely prevent him from starting. Also, he’s a pitcher. —Will Haines

Major league ETA: 2018

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Think of all the other things you could do with a roster spot instead of wasting it on a potential back-end starter who’s several years away. You could hold on to a sleeper closer candidate. Maybe stash a speedster who can pad your SB totals when your starters are sitting. Heck, you could get really crazy and even use it to stream a back-end starter who could help you right now, rather than one who might help you years down the line. You can pass on Dunning.

8. Anderson Franco, 3B
DOB: 8/15/1997
Height/Weight: 6’3” 190 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Signed August 2013 by Washington out of the Dominican Republic for $900,000
Previous Ranking(s): #7 (2016) Org
2016 Stats: .277/.307/.349, 1 HR, 1 SB in 24 games with the GCL Nationals

The Good: Franco is a strong kid with plus raw power he derives from length and strength. He has the arm and hands to stick at the hot corner.

The Bad: Franco lost significant developmental time this year and was limited to just 24 games in the complex due to a back injury. There are questions about how his approach will fare against higher level arms and in games he can have more of a one gear swing.

The Irrelevant: If Franco does stick at third base, he will only have to beat out Scott Brosius as best third baseman born on August 15th.

The Role:

OFP 50 — Bat-first regular at third base
Likely 40 — Corner bench bat with some pop

The Risks: Extreme. Franco has yet to play in full-season ball and there are already questions about his hit tool. He may end up at first base long term, putting a lot of pressure on the offensive profile. Back injuries are less than ideal and can linger.

Major league ETA: 2021

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: You can bury Franco deep on your sleeper list somewhere. Check in on him periodically to see if his offensive tools are starting to translate at higher levels, but there is such a thing as being too early, and you will be if you pick Franco up right now.

9. Andrew Stevenson, OF
DOB: 06/01/1994
Height/Weight: 6’0” 185 lbs
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted in the second round (58th overall) in the 2015 MLB draft, Louisiana State University (LA), signed for $750,000.
Previous Ranking(s): N/A
2016 Stats: .246/.302/.328, 2 HR, 12 SB in 65 games for Double-A Harrisburg, .304/.359/.418, 1 HR, 27 SB in 68 games for High-A Potomac

The Good: Stevenson is a gazelle in the outfield. He boasts plus-plus run times and flashes enough leather to entice Chris Berman. His speed and glove will carry the profile, though he shows the potential for a solid-average hit tool thanks to good hands and an ability to control the barrel. Pair that with a steady approach and the ability to recognize spin, and you have the makings of a high-floor player.

The Bad: High-floor players can often translate to “probably fourth outfielder” and that’s what Stevenson is. Despite the impact tools above, his game is limited by well below-average raw power that plays down in-game because he doesn’t incorporate his lower half into his swing. His value in the field is mitigated by a poor throwing arm and at-times overly aggressive routes.

The Irrelevant: Prior to his participation in the California/Carolina League All-Star Game (held on the west coast this year), Stevenson had never traveled to California.

The Role:

OFP 50 — Average outfielder
Likely 40 — Well, uh, “Probably fourth outfielder”

The Risks: While his glove and legs will carry the profile, the risk in Stevenson is that there’s not going to be anything to carry in the upper levels. Upper minors pitchers will attempt to exploit him on the inner half where he has little chance of doing any damage due to his minimal power output. If he becomes an automatic out, he won’t see the field, thus losing any chance to accrue value. —Craig Goldstein

Major league ETA: Late 2018

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Stevenson’s speed might make him somewhat interesting once he’s closer to the Majors, but his lack of other tools and distance from the show conspire to make him a fantasy non-factor for the time being.

10. Sheldon Neuse, IF
DOB: 12/10/1994
Height/Weight: 6’0” 195 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted in the second round (58th overall) in the 2016 MLB draft, University of Oklahoma (OK), signed for $900,000
Previous Ranking(s): N/A
2016 Stats: .230/.305/.341, 1 HR, 2 SB in 36 games with Low-A Auburn

The Good: Neuse was one of the better two-way college players in this year’s class, serving both as Oklahoma’s starting shortstop and closer. Arm strength is indeed his best asset, playing plus from the left side after delivering fastballs in the 93-95 range off the bump. His smooth right-handed swing is balanced and direct when he’s right, with an all-fields approach underlining an ability to turn and lift balls with average power potential. He exhibits an advanced command of the strike zone that bodes well for his on-base skills, and shows no glaring weakness in his game.

The Bad: The approach got too conservative in his pro debut, with a vast majority of his contact heading softly to the opposite field. He can be prone to over-swinging, particularly early in counts, and both the hit and playable power tools may never develop into outright assets. That may be problematic, as his mature body lacks for quickness or a ton of athleticism, and the physicality has already pushed him over to the hot corner. There are big-league tools here, just not much outside of the arm that really stands out, and it’s more of a second-division profile.

The Irrelevant: At least some of his signing bonus appears to have been invested immediately and directly in the procurement of a very large truck.

The Role:

OFP 50 – Regular third baseman
Likely 40 – Quality utility option

The Risks: Relatively low on account of collegiate polish and breadth of skillset. He didn’t exactly hit the ground like Usain Bolt at a level where he may have been expected to excel after signing, but his solid-if-unspectacular projection remains wholly intact. —Wilson Karaman

Major league ETA: Late 2018/Early 2019

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: If we ever get a Bat Signal about this guy the sender should immediately have their BP subscription revoked and should in its place receive a one-way ticket directly to the sun.

***

Others of note:

The Riser

Kelvin Gutierrez, 3B
Already 22, Gutierrez could be the next in a line of Nationals prospects who took a while to see their skills coalesce before taking off through the system. He opened eyes in 2016 while hitting .300 in Low-A Hagerstown, and his leveraged swing and ability to control the barrel pair with a still-developing body to portend future power growth. He’s got plus raw power at present, and while it doesn’t show up in-game consistently, it could once he fills out. He’s not a wizard at the hot corner but he shows the footwork to stick there, and his arm is an easy plus. Gutierrez might not boast the flashiest tools around but the entire package could be an average major-league third baseman if everything clicks. There are worse $900,000 investments to be made. —Craig Goldstein

The Factor on the Farm

Austin Voth, RHP
Voth continued to tick all the boxes on a fifth starter resume. He has sacrificed some velocity for command since college, but the trade off has worked as he has kept upper minors hitters off the fat part of the bat with his upper 80s fastball. The curve will get him enough strikeouts to keep him out of too much trouble, and his change-up is solid enough. He’s not the kind of arm you necessarily want to pencil in for 32 starts on April 1st, especially if you are the 2017 Nationals and have designs on winning the East again. But the 2017 Nats rotation has it’s fair share of injury and performance concerns heading into next season, and while he may be far from the most exciting pitching prospect in the system, Voth is a fine Plan B.

The still a bit uninspiring

Drew Ward, 3B
After battling perception in the past as an all-bat, light-glove cornerman with little chance to stick on the left side, Ward did little to change the game in a season split between the Carolina and Eastern leagues. He’s a max-effort guy on the dirt, but rigid physicality and suspect range continue to jeopardize his hot corner credentials. Scouts have long waited to see him translate his above-average raw power into games, and after showing glimpses of progress at High-A he reverted to a more linear stroke that produced far less thump after a mid-season bump to Harrisburg. His struggles against left-handed pitching have continued unabated, with vulnerability to same-handed spin an especially deadly vice. A future as a second-division platoon bat with thump off the bench looks increasingly like the best-case outcome, though with a reasonably advanced approach and time still on his side, there’s still ostensibly a chance for more. —Wilson Karaman

The Not-The-Early-90s-Noise-Rock-Band

Jesus Luzardo, LHP
The Nats have become a landing spot for amateur arms in need of Tommy John surgery, and Luzardo is the latest in a line that includes two of the top five prospects up above. He was a potential top 50 pick before the elbow woes, due to his advanced repertoire for a teenager. Luzardo showed a low 90s fastball, a potentially above-average curve, and some feel for the change before his surgery this Spring. There isn’t a ton of projection left here, as he’s physically mature and just six-foot-one, but getting an advanced arm like this in the third round is a nice coup. Luzardo could see some time on the mound towards the end of the 2017 season, but he may not, and that’s okay too. We have to assume the Nats have a pretty good idea what they are doing with these guys at this point. Once he is back on the mound, Luzardo has mid-rotation or late-inning-relief potential.

Name of Note

Mariano Rivera, Jr, RHP
The trot from the bullpen is familiar. He cuts a familiar skinny silhouette on the mound. You’ve seen the motion a million times before. He even looks similar in the face. Except you’re in an A-ball park somewhere on the east coast, and this is Mariano Rivera III, not his more famous future Hall of Fame father.

As a prospect, Mariano III is…well, not Sandman Mariano, at least not yet. He’ll sit 92-93, topping out at 95. There’s some natural cut to his four-seamer, but nothing like his pops had, and the command isn’t totally there yet. He’ll also feature a hard slider with some bite, and one could wishcast given the bloodlines those two pitches merging into a death-to-hitters cutter eventually. Yet, on a more basic level, this is basically the same “95 and a slider” future middle/setup relief profile one sees dotting all levels of the minors. Mariano III is fairly new to pitching, having come to it late in his college career, and it’s hard to forget who is father was, so maybe there’s a little more projection left than the normal fourth-round pick college reliever. —Jarrett Seidler

Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/91 or later)

  1. Bryce Harper
  2. Trea Turner
  3. Victor Robles
  4. Joe Ross
  5. Lucas Giolito
  6. Reynaldo Lopez
  7. Juan Soto
  8. Erick Fedde
  9. ​Wilmer Difo
  10. Carter Kieboom

The Nationals farm system has graduated much of its best talent lately, and the most promising pieces left are still very young. The 25-and-under list is a weird mish-mash of people who have already won MVP awards at the major-league level and kids who haven’t seen tough competition yet. It’s a reminder that the organization was supremely lucky to have a consensus no. 1 overall pick at its disposal in 2010, as many of the draft hauls since then have been more challenging. The team did not have first round picks in 2013 or 2015 because of free agent signings. Give credit to the front office for rounding out these slightly leaner years with some excellent trades and international FA signings.

To start things off, have you heard of this guy before? For the sixth year in a row, Bryce Harper makes this list for the Nats. Also, did you hear his 2016 season was a disappointment? Guess that totally-untrue-but-possibly-true rumor of a nagging neck/shoulder injury was maybe/probably true. He’ll be just fine. Only a career-ender would jeopardize his spot on the top of this list. By the time he signs with the Yankees for infinite dollars in the 2019 offseason, at least one of the outfielders below will probably be in position to help.

Contrasting Harper’s disappointment was the arrival of Trea Turner, whose outstanding overall play came in spite of him playing an unfamiliar position in center field. He’s still a shortstop at heart, and GM Mike Rizzo may choose to buy an outfielder to enable the move back. The other big question for next year: will pitchers adjust and exploit the weaker swings on breaking balls?

Actually, you know what would enable Turner to move back to short? The 2019 version of Victor Robles starting in center. Robles has a first-division future with his combination of defensive skills and offensive upside. He doesn’t need much power to carry him to higher levels, but as his body matures we’ll see for sure if he hits more home runs than triples each year.

Meanwhile, the combination of Joe Ross, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Erick Fedde is going to win plenty of games for the franchise—although a lot of development is left for the last three in that list. Giolito, in particular, could use a rebound after looking uncomfortable in his first major league outings. The fastball sat 93-94 all year—instead of the 95-96 that he flashed in the low minors and helped him offset command woes. Lopez looks very tempting in relief, and Fedde likely will get a shot to start down the line.

Difo is tough to figure. He raced through the minors in 2015 before falling flat in a brief stint in the majors. He flashes major-league tools, including the ability to stay up the middle, and was even included on the Nationals post-season roster, memorably recording the final out of the NLDS against Clayton Kershaw. Still, the rose-colored ceiling is an average regular, and his positional flexibility makes him a prime candidate for the utility man role rather than a second-division regular.

Juan Soto and Carter Kieboom have a combined $3.5 million price tag, and it’ll be a few years before we see the returns on investment. Still, the patience has a good chance of being rewarded. Soto, especially, has projection for days and could shoot up prospect lists once there’s better proof of concept against professional competition. Kieboom also has a better shot than older brother Spencer at sticking with the big league club. —Dan Rozenson

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bwe206
11/16
I am a Mets fan and I got to see Giolito pitch a few times this year. I have been following his career since he was an amateur since there was a chance of the Mets drafting him a few years back. After reading all of the glowing reports the thing that really surprised me was the lack of top end velocity. Even within this article it mentions the mid 90s velocity. According to PitchF/X his average fastball was 93.3 mph which in today's game is pretty pedestrian. Obviously you do not need to throw 99 to be successful but i think it is concerning that he seems to continually lose a few ticks off the fastball each year.
Junts1
11/16
Is his velocity something that hasn't recovered since the TJ surgery? That isn't a rare outcome, as I recall.
huztlers
11/16
Velocity usually comes back. Command is the thing that lags.
jpaternostro
11/16
His velocity actually did come back to a certain extent in 2014-15. He was down for most of this season. How much that is the mechanical tweaks throughout the year, and how much is an actual velocity dip is uncertain, and adds to the, well, uncertainty.
Shauncore
11/16
93 is pretty good I think. For a RP maybe not but 93.3 MPH would be in the top 20 among qualified starters (near Arrieta, Rodon, Bauer). For relievers it would be like 60th. And as we know, it's not just raw velo but movement too, and Giolito has that downward movement.
jarrettseidler
11/17
Sure, that's why we threw the "sometimes" in. Giolito's velocity was honestly pretty variable this season depending on where and when you saw him, and down on the whole.
Eddy5791
11/16
Couple fo things: 1) I know it's only done once or twice a list, but in the 'Role' section I really like when you guys list actual MLB'ers. Gives a much clearer picture than perhaps saying a 'No.3 Starter'. 2) If you want to go ahead and just write up Braxton Garrett and maybe Luis Castillo for the Marlins and move on, I wouldn't be mad.
TheArtfulDodger
11/16
1) Comps are exceedingly helpful in communicating what a guy might turn out to be, but they're also often misleading in terms of baselines. That said, we do use them when we feel it applies, and we can keep this in mind going forward. Sometimes there's just not all that great of a comp. 2) It's worth noting that we are going to have to deviate from our anticipated Friday schedule for the Marlins list (it'll be up next week!) but we'll run some reports from the AFL based on live looks to tide everyone over. Cheers!
MikePemulis
11/17
+1 on the Role section. The entire time I was reading the write up of Andrew Stevenson I was like, "Whoa, this is Denard Span. Only scouted by someone who really doesn't like Denard Span."
TheArtfulDodger
11/17
Denard Span is a career .284 hitter, which profiles as better than "solid-average" and is a big difference between him being a fourth starter and an MLB regular.
lonechicken
11/16
This list, particularly Robles, shows why the Nats should move Turner back to the infield. A 2 year placeholder rental to help with the CF situation would make sense. Also, there's a serious lack of left handed starters. :(
jpaternostro
11/16
Outside of the Braves and Yankees (the two best systems in baseball), I can't really think of an org loaded with left-handed pitching.
TheArtfulDodger
11/16
If you're looking for a lefty in the Nats system, Tyler Watson would be the name to watch.
huztlers
11/16
It seems really weird that there is never any concrete discussion of tools. Personally, that is what I am most interested in hearing about.
BParlette
11/16
Or to put it yet another way on Giolito, TINSTAAPP...
username49
11/16
Haruki Murakami! Reading Kafka on the shore right now.
jpaternostro
11/16
Kafka is my personal favorite of his longer works. I know it is seen as lesser Murakami, maybe because it was the point that his tropes became a bit obvious and tiresome for some. But I think it's a much better read than the ponderous Wind-Up Bird Chronicle or the bloated 1Q84.
SansRig
11/18
What grade would you put on Wind-up Bird Chronical? Also, if I had to pick a favorite, it might be Norwegian Wood, having only read 3 or 4 of his books.
aquavator44
11/19
Kafka was the first of his I read, and it mads a big impression on me. Totally agree about 1Q84 being bloated, though it did have its moments. Personal fave is probably Hard Boiled Wonderland.
JCelona34
11/18
Any reports on Pedro Avila? I saw him show some pretty decent stuff against an albeit weak Kannapolis lineup and he caught my eye. Seemed to do pretty well in the sally league for a 19 year old too.
jarrettseidler
11/20
Saw his first start in April. Nobody behind the plate had any idea who he was coming in, and he only pitched three innings, but I definitely noticed him. Here's the English language version of what's in my notebook: short and small frame but with clean mechanics, easy 92-95 with life and good command given background/level, generic mid-80s slider, curve flashed a few times.