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Coming into 2006, perhaps the most risky elite pick in fantasy baseball was Alfonso Soriano. Much was made of his 2005 home/road splits (1011 OPS at home in Texas, 639 away) and the fact that he was moving from a great hitter’s park in Ameriquest Field to a great pitcher’s park in RFK Stadium. Jose Guillen‘s own initial struggles with RFK (just three home runs there last year, as opposed to 21 on the road) were cited as corroborating evidence. In addition, Nationals GM Jim Bowden mentioned his immediate intention to move Soriano off of the keystone and out to left field, a decision that clearly displeased the second baseman. Add to that an arbitration battle the player lost, and the door was opened for a potentially sulky Soriano to underperform even beyond the unfavorable park factors as he tried to force another trade. PECOTA‘s median projection was a .258/.311/.465 line with 24 home runs; ours at here.

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