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We have reached the outfield section of our fantasy positional series, which means we’ll be looking at the deepest and most robust section of any fantasy roster. In this post, as always, we’ll be looking at the early ADP Analysis from early NFBC drafts and looking at the biggest movers compared to their standing in last year’s column. Once again, the average round is based on a 15-team draft. Without further ado, let’s get to the players.

(Early) Early Rounds

A few mainstays are joined atop the draft by a couple of fast risers…

Rank

Player

Team

Avg. Pick

Avg. Round

1

Mike Trout

LAA

1.10

1

2

Mookie Betts

BOS

2.65

1

3

Bryce Harper

WAS

10.21

1

4

Charlie Blackmon

COL

16.31

2

5

Starling Marte

PIT

24.83

2

Bryce Harper, Nationals

At this point last year, Harper was being discussed as a possible 1-1 pick. After a down 2016, at least for him, he’s moved to the bottom of the top ten. This could end up being great value for the young superstar, as there wasn’t a lot to be afraid of in his down year. His plate discipline remained as strong as ever, and his batted ball profile didn’t change too much. He did pull the ball a bit less, but I’d still expect him to get back to at least 30 home runs in 2017 and something close to a .275 AVG. If he can do that while keeping the gains in SB he made last year, he’ll be right back at the top of the draft next year.

Charlie Blackmon, Rockies

After being selected in the middle of the third round in 2016, Blackmon’s big year in Colorado has gotten him up to the top of the second round in early drafts this winter. After flirting with 20 homers in his first two full seasons, Blackmon blew by that mark with 29 in 2016. He paired that with strong contextual numbers, a .324 AVG, and 17 steals. I’m not sure he’ll be able to keep his home run total quite that high, but Coors should continue to boost that AVG and any downturn in homers could be outweighed by an uptick in steals to get closer to his 2014 and 2015 totals. Combine that with playing in Nolan Arenado’s lineup, this should be solid value for Blackmon even if he won’t exactly be a steal.

(Middle) Early Rounds)

Buy low on some of this year’s highest-profile fallers…

Rank

Player

Team

Avg. Pick

Avg. Round

6

George Springer

HOU

33.48

3

7

A.J. Pollock

ARI

35.38

3

8

Giancarlo Stanton

MIA

38.83

3

9

Nelson Cruz

SEA

42.73

3

10

J.D. Martinez

DET

50.96

4

11

Ryan Braun

MIL

51.15

4

12

Billy Hamilton

CIN

52.33

4

13

Ian Desmond

COL

55.67

4

14

Christian Yelich

MIA

56.54

4

15

Yoenis Cespedes

NYM

59.44

4

Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins

There aren’t many more high-profile fallers than Stanton, who was a top ten pick heading into last year’s drafts. The power is still very much there — as we saw in last summer’s Home Run Derby — but the rest of the game is a bit scary. His propensity for strikeouts looks like it’s here to stay at this point, so his AVG depends on a high BABIP that he hasn’t produced for two years now. Between that and his struggle to stay on the field all year, there are real red flags here. The upside is enormous and getting him in the third round could be a steal, but given the risks this seems like the right spot for the Marlins slugger.

Christian Yelich, Marlins

Just one round later, you get Stanton’s teammate who is trending in the opposite direction. Yelich has been looked at as a potential breakout for the last few years, and he made good on that potential in 2016. Unfortunately, the helium may be carrying him a bit too high, at least in roto leagues. The AVG is here to stay, but the power may have been a fluke. I don’t doubt he can stay in the double digits, but he hits far too many ground balls to really count on 20+ home runs again. Yelich is likely to be a solid fantasy asset yet again in 2017, but I’d prefer waiting at least another round on the 25-year-old.

(Late) Early Rounds

Rank

Player

Team

Avg. Pick

Avg. Round

16

Carlos Gonzalez

COL

66.02

5

17

Gregory Polanco

PIT

66.08

5

18

Andrew McCutchen

PIT

68.15

5

19

Mark Trumbo

BAL

68.62

5

20

Kyle Schwarber

CHC

74.00

5

21

Justin Upton

DET

83.29

6

22

David Dahl

COL

90.60

7

23

Matt Kemp

ATL

97.12

7

24

Khris Davis

OAK

104.02

7

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

While Stanton is surely a high-profile faller, McCutchen has him beat in that category. After being a perennial first-round pick for what seems like forever, he’s fallen all the way down to the bottom of the top 20 at his position. This may end up being one of my favorite buy-low players in the entire draft. His biggest issue last year was AVG, which fell all the way down to .256. Part of that was due to an increasing K%, which appears here to stay. On the other hand, his BABIP fell below .300 for the first time since 2011 despite a similar batted-ball profile. He won’t be a first round pick again, but if he can get his AVG up by 20-30 points, he’ll look a lot better than his current ADP.

Mark Trumbo, Orioles

At this point last year, Trumbo was being selected way down in the 13th round. Hitting 47 home runs is an easy way to get yourself up to the fifth round. In 2017, he’ll remain in Camden Yards, which should go a long way towards keeping that home run total up. I’d be surprised if he threatens 50 dingers again, but he should easily surpass 30. Baltimore’s lineup should give him just as many RBI and R opportunities again as well. You know what you’re getting from Trumbo at this point, so it’s up to you how you value that kind production.

(Early) Middle Rounds

Rank

Player

Team

Avg. Pick

Avg. Round

25

Jose Bautista

TOR

116.88

8

26

Adam Jones

BAL

117.38

8

27

Odubel Herrera

PHI

122.40

9

28

Lorenzo Cain

KC

128.04

9

29

Adam Eaton

WAS

129.83

9

30

Stephen Piscotty

STL

131.75

9

31

Andrew Benintendi

BOS

134.33

9

32

Jackie Bradley Jr.

BOS

145.62

10

33

Byron Buxton

MIN

146.10

10

34

Yasmany Tomas

ARI

147.27

10

Jose Bautista, Blue Jays

Like Stanton and McCutchen, Bautista is moving on from being a mainstay atop fantasy drafts. This difference in the case is age, as Bautista is entering his age-36 season. We mostly know what we’re getting out of the Blue Jays right fielder at this point when he’s on the field. The power is still there, as he put up a .217 ISO in a down 2016. The AVG is going to be low due to low BABIPs and an increasing K-rate, though the latter should improve a bit after coming in at a career-high in 2016. Toronto’s lineup should still be good next year and help his contextual numbers, though maybe slightly less so without Edwin Encarnacion. Given his age, it’s no guarantee he’ll be able to stay on the field, though, making this a fine draft spot for the slugger.

Jackie Bradley, Jr., Red Sox

Bradley’s draft spot figures contain one of the biggest ranges among outfielders, as he’s one of the hardest to figure out. At times, he looks like the second coming of Willie Mays. Then, just a few weeks later, he can look like a Triple-A hitter. At the end of the day, you’re likely getting something very close to what he did last year. A decent AVG that won’t help or hurt you, solid power numbers with around 20-25 home runs, and good contextual numbers thanks to a strong Red Sox lineup. You’ll have to deal with extreme hot and cold streaks, but if you ride it out Bradley should make good on his current ADP by the end of the year.

(Middle) Middle Rounds

Rank

Player

Team

Avg. Pick

Avg. Round

35

Adam Duvall

CIN

153.12

11

36

Carlos Gomez

TEX

153.44

11

37

Marcell Ozuna

MIA

179.54

12

38

Kole Calhoun

LAA

188.52

13

39

Keon Broxton

MIL

190.27

13

40

Dexter Fowler

STL

190.48

13

41

Kevin Kiermaier

TB

192.12

13

42

Jay Bruce

NYM

193.27

13

43

Ender Inciarte

ATL

194.81

13

Adam Duvall, Reds

Among players who were drafted last season, no outfielder made a bigger jump in ADP than Duvall. He surprised everyone with his performance in 2016, his first full season in the majors. He smashed 30 home runs with 103 RBI. His power is going to continue to be his calling card, and he should be able to stay in the high-20s given his home park. Unfortunately, that’s likely all he’ll be producing. The Reds won’t have a great lineup, giving him a lower floor than most power hitters in RBI and R, and he’ll be virtually no help in AVG or SB. At this point in the draft, you’ll know how much you need power, which will dictate whether or not this will be good value.

Carlos Gomez, Rangers

Gomez represents one of the best chances at a steal at this point in the draft. He was awful for most of 2016, but he really turned it around after being sent to Texas. The issue is, that turnaround came in just 130 plate appearances, calling its legitimacy into question. Like Duvall, this pick has a lot to do with the rest of your roster. If you feel like you went safe with your previous 10 picks, this could be a good time for a big upside pick like Gomez. If you need more safety, you’re not going to find that here.

(Late) Middle Rounds

Rank

Player

Team

Avg. Pick

Avg. Round

44

Hunter Pence

SF

204.12

14

45

Joc Pederson

LAD

206.48

14

46

Nomar Mazara

TEX

206.87

14

47

Rajai Davis

OAK

212.02

15

48

Carlos Beltran

HOU

216.98

15

49

Randal Grichuk

STL

217.35

15

50

Michael Brantley

CLE

217.71

15

Nomar Mazara, Rangers

One of the most hyped rookies of 2016, Mazara was solid in his first year even if he didn’t meet some’s absurdly high expectations. He launched 20 home runs, which is likely around where he’ll stay in 2017. While I wouldn’t expect him to make any improvements in steals, either, he can improve everywhere else. He hit .266 last year, thanks to an average BABIP and K-rate. There’s a good chance both of these will improve a bit in his second season, meaning he could get his AVG closer to the .280-range. Combine that with some improvements in contextual stats, that gives him a good baseline for the 14th round. And that’s without factoring in the breakout potential for one of the best-regarded young hitters in baseball. Take advantage of this ADP.

Michael Brantley, Indians

After missing basically all of 2016 with shoulder problems, fantasy owners have dropped Brantley all the way down to the 15th round. On the surface, this seems like an overreaction to me. Obviously, there is some risk that shoulder injuries can forever alter a player’s swing, but I wouldn’t mind taking that risk a few rounds earlier. Before the injury, Brantley was a huge contributer in AVG with solid HR and SB totals. Now, he’ll be in an improved Indians lineup with Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Edwin Encarnacion, giving him big opportunities to help in RBI and R. His shoulder may change everything, but if he’s the same guy he might be the best value in the entire draft.

(Early) Late Rounds

Rank

Player

Team

Avg. Pick

Avg. Round

51

Yasiel Puig

LAD

225.60

16

52

Max Kepler

MIN

232.46

16

53

Hunter Renfroe

SD

236.56

16

54

Leonys Martin

SEA

236.88

16

55

Jacoby Ellsbury

NYY

248.27

17

56

Jason Heyward

CHC

250.00

17

57

Manuel Margot

SD

253.02

17

58

Matt Holliday

NYY

258.52

18

59

Melky Cabrera

CHW

262.71

18

60

Domingo Santana

MIL

266.38

18

Jason Heyward, Cubs

Pretty much everything went right for the Cubs last year, with Heyward being the most notable exception. His first year in Chicago was forgettable, and it moved him a whopping 180 spots down the draft board from last year. In 2017, I’d expect small bounce backs in every category, though I still wouldn’t be looking for a top fantasy contributor. At this position, the risk of him falling even further is well worth it, though I’d caution anyone looking for huge upside from this pick.

(Middle) Late Rounds)

Rank

Player

Team

Avg. Pick

Avg. Round

61

David Peralta

ARI

274.40

19

62

Jarrod Dyson

SEA

276.40

19

63

Brett Gardner

NYY

280.06

19

64

Curtis Granderson

NYM

281.23

19

65

Travis Jankowski

SD

288.65

20

66

Jorge Soler

KC

288.77

20

67

Kevin Pillar

TOR

293.14

20

68

Josh Reddick

HOU

295.85

20

69

Corey Dickerson

TB

299.00

20

70

Tyler Naquin

CLE

307.80

21

71

Michael Conforto

NYM

312.76

21

David Peralta, Diamondbacks

At this time last year, Peralta was one of my favorite picks. He was being taken in the middle of the draft, and was coming off a year, which hinted big things could be in his future. The outfielder rewarded me by missing most of the season and taking a step back in production when he was on the field. If he can stay on the field, I still believe in his line drive ability that leads to high AVGs and decent home run totals. Like Heyward in the last section, I don’t know that there’s huge potential here, but his skills and a sneaky strong Diamondbacks lineup could provide good value late in the draft.

(Late) Late Rounds

Rank

Player

Team

Avg. Pick

Avg. Round

72

Alex Gordon

KC

318.00

22

73

Shin-Soo Choo

TEX

332.90

23

74

Andrew Toles

LAD

335.55

23

75

Howie Kendrick

PHI

342.08

23

76

Ben Revere

LAA

342.14

23

77

Melvin Upton Jr.

TOR

342.78

23

78

Steven Souza

TB

342.78

23

Ben Revere, Angels

Once one of the most underrated roto assets in all of baseball, Revere took a massive step back in 2016. His AVG fell by a whopping 90 (NINETY) points from 2015, and he stole fewer than 20 bases for the first time since 2010 when he played in just 13 games. The good news is he’s not particularly old, and his AVG issues look to be mostly due to BABIP fluctuation. The bad news is it wasn’t all bad luck, as he increased his fly ball rate substantially. He should get back to something around a .260-.270 AVG, but it’s unclear how much that will help. He’s not guaranteed everyday time in Los Angeles, so his SB floor is quite low. The skills are still there for him to be a big roto asset, but his current situation doesn’t help matters.

Undrafted

Rank

Player

Team

Avg. Pick

Avg. Round

79

Mallex Smith

TB

351.92

Undrafted

80

Denard Span

SF

355.86

Undrafted

81

Nick Markakis

ATL

363.94

Undrafted

82

Jayson Werth

WAS

368.37

Undrafted

83

Michael Saunders

PHI

376.26

Undrafted

84

Aaron Judge

NYY

381.86

Undrafted

85

Scott Schebler

CIN

381.86

Undrafted

86

Alex Dickerson

SD

388.58

Undrafted

87

Eddie Rosario

MIN

398.55

Undrafted

88

Charlie Tilson

CHW

398.82

Undrafted

89

Roman Quinn

PHI

402.39

Undrafted

90

Mitch Haniger

SEA

416.10

Undrafted

91

Gerardo Parra

COL

424.71

Undrafted

92

Lewis Brinson

MIL

427.37

Undrafted

93

Avisail Garcia

CHW

429.51

Undrafted

94

Aaron Altherr

PHI

434.98

Undrafted

95

Seth Smith

BAL

435.30

Undrafted

96

Hyun Soo Kim

BAL

440.55

Undrafted

97

Angel Pagan

SF

446.84

Undrafted

98

Lonnie Chisenhall

CLE

457.27

Undrafted

99

Ryan Rua

TEX

458.45

Undrafted

100

Matt Joyce

OAK

492.98

Undrafted

101

Jon Jay

CHC

497.45

Undrafted

102

Albert Almora

CHC

499.69

Undrafted

Unsurprisingly, this is a massive tier and you can find just about anything you’re looking for. Denard Span, Jayson Werth, and Michael Saunders are there for veterans. Mallex Smith is there for speed upside. Lewis Brinson is there for a draft-and-stash candidate at the end of drafts. Mitch Haniger is there if you’re looking for a player that’s gotten some substantial low-key hype (if there’s such a thing) this offseason. If you lose an outfielder early this spring, there will be plenty of options to replace them.

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huztlers
2/13
You have my blessing to still be high on David Peralta. He was awfully unhealthy last year and I am sure it impacted his production. A bad wrist and back sound terrible for hitting. I have zero certainty that he will be healthy this year, but the skill-set could be in tact...