Fantasy Freestyle: Positioning Your Team for Success

Last week, I put together my valuation update for AL- and NL-only leagues. A reader noticed that middle infielders seem to have earned more this year than they have in past seasons. With this in mind, I thought I would take a look at what players at each position have done the last three years and see if it is possible to glean any potential trends from these data (spoiler alert, it probably is not possible).

The values in these charts are from last week’s article for 2016 player valuations and from the season-end articles for 2014 and 2015. All values are for 5×5 mono leagues (NL or AL-only). Hitters are grouped in blocs of 12 since most standard mono leagues use 12 teams.

Table 1: Catcher

There are different stories to be told in the AL and the NL. For the most part, value at catcher has maintained in the NL. Meanwhile, AL catcher – already a weak position – has sunk further and further into a valuation cesspool. The 12 best AL catchers averaged $13 in earnings in 2014. In 2016, the top catcher (Salvador Perez) is on pace to earn $13. Sandy Leon ($11) and Gary Sanchez ($10) are third and fourth among AL catchers, despite having just a shade over 350 plate appearances combined.

It is possible that with the emphasis increasing on pitch framing the last few years, there are a growing number of catchers who can survive mostly if not entirely on their defensive contributions. This drop in offensive output has not quite carried over to the National League. With the pitcher hitting, it is more difficult to carry two weak links in the lineup in the Senior Circuit.

Table 2: Corner Infield

For the AL, 2016 dropped somewhat from 2015 but saw a slight improvement from 2014, particularly in the middle and bottom tiers at first and third. Corner infield is a little bit stronger in the NL at the top, but there is a bigger drop between the elite and non-elite options.

The two biggest surprises for me at corner infield were:

1) Third basemen rule the roost
There was a time when you wanted your primary corner infielder to be a first baseman. While there are still more than a few elite first basemen, the two best corners in both the NL and AL year-to-date have been third basemen. Kris Bryant ($37), Nolan Arenado ($35), Josh Donaldson ($33), and Manny Machado ($29) have earned more than any first baseman. Not only have all four done well, but all of them have lived up to their pre-season draft position/ADP. In terms of ROI from a first round pick, this is significant.

2) The bottom of the pool is bad
There was a time when you could feel fairly confident about stocking your third corner infield slot with someone fairly decent, even in a mono format. These players were not especially exciting, but they were guys who could hit .250, sock 10-12 home runs, drive in 50, and perhaps steal a few bases. These were not “glue” guys but were safe enough to plug onto your team and not worry.

Those days are long gone, especially in the National League. David Wright and Lucas Duda were almost complete washouts this season (sorry, Mets fans) and yet managed to finish among the top 36 corner infielders in the NL this season. It used to be that you could easily find a replacement talent lurking to replace poor corner infielders, but this time has long passed. Hernan Perez (third base eligible entering 2016) was the only truly impactful corner in the NL who was a (fantasy) free agent at the beginning of the season. In the AL, the best free talent at corner was Cheslor Cuthbert and Travis Shaw. These players helped their fantasy teams to some degree, but not nearly enough to offset a $20-25 investment that went under.

Table 3: Middle Infield

Without a doubt, middle infield is where the value is this year. This is particularly true in the AL. Among second basemen, every player exceeded his auction value with the exception of Brett Lawrie and Ryan Goins. Include shortstops and you can add Carlos Correa, Troy Tulowitzki, and Ketel Marte to this short list. $30 of earnings per player for the top 12 middle infielders in the AL is robust by any standard. Jose Altuve and his $47 in earnings are a significant driver, but Ian Desmond ($33; eligible based on 2015), Xander Bogaerts ($31), and Francisco Lindor ($31) are no slouches. This is a strong crop of young players, and it is likely that Correa bounces back somewhat next season. 2016 is less of an anomaly and far more likely the beginning of a trend. The gap between the top of the position and the bottom in the AL makes it imperative that you grab an elite middle infielder in 2017, or failing that someone in the next tier.

The NL has also seen a bump since 2015, although not nearly as dynamic as the one in the AL. A large part of this is that stolen bases have not been nearly as prevalent among NL middle infielders as they have been in the AL. Four of the top 12 middle infielders in the NL have stolen 10 or more bases; in the AL everyone in the top 12 except for Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia has double-digit steals. While there are some young and talented middle infielders at the top in the NL, it isn’t quite the same dynamic crop. Daniel Murphy and Ben Zobrist have been great this year, but neither is the kind of player who will influence long-term trends at second.

Table 4: Outfield

Outfielders in both leagues continue to provide a good portion of value for their fantasy owners. However, earnings have dropped across-the-board at the position in both leagues. Some of this can be tied to specific players like A.J. Pollock, but much of it is simply a dip in production on a larger level. It is too early to say whether this is the beginning of a trend or a one-year anomaly.

As was the case with corner infielders, the bottom of the barrel outfielders in mono leagues are not very productive. I noticed this by accident in Tout Wars due to the league’s quirky rule that allows teams to carry only four outfielders, with a “swingman” replacing the fifth outfielder. It isn’t particularly common in Tout for a team to carry an outfielder in the “swingman” slot, and the lack of production at the back end of the outfield pool is the common reason. The notion that corners and outfielders are automatically stronger than middle infielders is out of date. As long as this level of production continues up the middle, fantasy teams can consider carrying four middle infielders an appropriate and useful strategy, especially in deeper formats.