Lies, Damned Lies

Lies, Damned Lies: Neighborly Baseball

by Nate Silver 4/12

Nate wonders about an overflow effect in two-team markets, and finds some surprising results.

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Breaks Hearts

by Nate Silver 3/29

PECOTA projects the standings for the upcoming season, and Nate chimes in on where he thinks it has erred.

Lies, Damned Lies: Rethinking Replacement Level

by Nate Silver 3/22

Nate wonders if there's still more to be learned when it comes to considering replacement level talent.

Lies, Damned Lies: Another Look at Plate Discipline

by Nate Silver 3/15

Nate takes a closer look at plate discipline, wondering how to best measure and describe it.

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Prospects, Wrap-up

by Nate Silver 3/08

Nate finishes up his PECOTA-driven look at prospects with a few rankings, and some final thoughts.

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Prospects, Part Four

by Nate Silver 3/03

Nate turns to PECOTA's analysis of young pitchers.

Lies, Damned Lies: Any Such Thing?

by Nate Silver 2/24

A closer look at the validity of one of BP's best-known theories.

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes On Prospects, Part Three

by Nate Silver 2/22

PECOTA now turns its attention to the best infield prospects in the game.

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes On Prospects, Part Two

by Nate Silver 2/15

Nate continues his PECOTA-based prospect evaluation by looking at young first basemen and outfielders.

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes On Prospects, Part One

by Nate Silver 2/08

Nate introduces a method of evaluating prospects with PECOTA, and begins his tour around the minors by examining the most promising young catchers.

Lies, Damned Lies: Defending Jeffrey

by Nate Silver 11/22

The Marlins are undertaking another fire sale, but as Nate argues, this one can be justified by the numbers.

Lies, Damned Lies: Running the Odds

by Nate Silver 10/19

Where does Monday's NLCS Game Five rank among recent postseason comebacks?

Lies, Damned Lies: A Mulligan on Guzman

by Nate Silver 10/12

Nate revisits his earlier thoughts on Cristian Guzman being an offseason bargain.

Lies, Damned Lies: Beaten Down by PECOTA

by Nate Silver 9/28

Nate takes a look at those players who outperformed their PECOTAs by the most, and those who didn't come close to their projections.

Lies, Damned Lies: A New Look at Aging

by Nate Silver 9/22

Nate uses Joe Crede and poker as points of departure to investigate when position players peak.

Lies, Damned Lies: The Hometown Discount

by Nate Silver 9/15

Legitimate small-market teams are at a disadvantage when it comes to competitive bidding for players. Here's one way to even the playing field when it comes to the ones they develop.