I’ve written before about the outrageous potential of Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez. Well, he didn’t turn 18 until April, and he’s already in Double-A. He made his high-minors debut last week against Frisco and in six innings fanned eight, walked two and surrendered only a single run.
How Hernandez fares the rest of the season in the Texas League will be more one of the more engaging subplots to be found in 2004. With a high-90s fastball, a hammer curve that’s easily the best breaking pitch in the system and a staggering record of performance, Hernandez is a deeply special talent. Here’s hoping he doesn’t succumb to the panoply of hazards that await young pitchers.
It’s hard for me to deal with pitchers like Josh Beckett. They are the most frustrating type of talent. It’s not the pitch counts, the mechanics, or anything in the normal realm of sports medicine that could keep his gift on the mound. I only hope he ends up closer to fellow Texans Nolan Ryan and Kerry Wood than to someone like David Clyde. Beckett has what is being called a skin tear. Rather than the normal pocket of skin that fills with fluid, the skin just came right off. Beckett reported that this is the worst problem he’s had and the first time he’s bled from blister-related problems. Expect this DL stint to be long, along the lines of Jeremy Affeldt last season.
Speaking of Kerry Wood, his rehab start in Triple-A Iowa went extremely well. He combined with Sergio Mitre, who got an odd four-inning save, for an Iowa win. Wood went five innings, striking out four, and giving up two singles. Wood now heads back to Wrigley and seems ready to start on Sunday. Ryan Dempster will make his second rehab start in Iowa tomorrow.
On Thursday night, the Yankees and Red Sox played an epochal extra-inning game, possibly the most compelling contest of the season to date. This was the game in which Derek Jeter flew like a deranged Superman into the third row of seats in short left field. A consequence of If Jeter Had Wings was that Jeter had to leave the game and the Yankees were out of infielders. Alex Rodriguez slid over to shortstop and Gary Sheffield, who had last played third base in 1993, was called upon to take A-Rod’s place at the hot corner.
Sheffield’s first chance came on a Kevin Millar grounder. The outfielder looped the throw over first base for an error; it was clear that he had forgotten both the range and the mechanics of playing the position. The Red Sox, already up by a run, had Dave McCarty and Cesar Crespo due to bat. An obvious strategic question presented itself: could the Red Sox run up the score by bunting the ball at Sheffield?
When they brought him on as an instructor, Cashman said that Sojo wouldn’t play for the team–he played anyway. When rosters expanded and Derek Jeter injured his ribs, they signed Sojo to a minor league deal and suited him up for real against the Blue Jays on Sept. 1.
After the season, Sojo signed on to become the Yankees’ third-base coach where, I have no doubt, he’s looking at Enrique Wilson and thinking he could outplay that kid if given the chance.
Though it rarely occurs, this could theoretically happen again, and not just on the Yankees (“Distributing championship rings to the undeserving since 1996!”). Many once-excellent players are hanging around currently-bad teams in coaching capacities, and it’s easy to imagine that in a moment of weakness, a GM might consider a conversion.
I got an e-mail from Yankees.com today imploring me to vote for Hideki Matsui for the final slot on the American League team. First of all, I’m a little shocked that I’m even on the Yankees.com mailing list. Second, I’m even more shocked that the Yankees are actively campaigning to get one of their own onto the squad. How utterly undignified. It’s like those ads movie companies run in the trade publications promoting their pathetic offerings for Academy Awards. “Members of the Academy, for your consideration: Ben Affleck in Gigli…” Campaigning is for dog catchers and county aldermen, not the most successful, storied and–allegedly–classy franchise in American sport.
Perhaps I doth protest too much. After all, the All-Star Game voting and selection is so completely bescrewed that it’s much too late to bring any sanity to the proceedings now. If you would like to take a stab at doing so, however, you wouldn’t be voting for Matsui.
Indians’ GM Mark Shapiro likes picking up Colorado retreads, for whatever reason. The Expos have a number of hitters–including Orlando Cabrera–who could fetch some value on the trade market. And the Mariners, following their excellent pick-up of Jeremy Reed and Miguel Olivo for Freddy Garcia, seem unwilling to part with other usable parts like Jamie Moyer. All this and much more news from Cleveland, Montreal, and Seattle in your Tuesday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
I’ve been trying and I can’t find anyone that has a career path like Phil Nevin’s. He’s gone from first-round pick to first-round bust to journeyman to star to injury-prone in the space of a decade. He’s been traded three times for a collection of warm bodies. Even PECOTA’s comps list can’t find anything quite like Nevin.
He’s down, once again, and headed for surgery. This time, it’s a torn meniscus, the second such surgery he’s had. Nevin should be out until mid-August, but it’s a straightforward procedure. The injury shouldn’t affect his hitting, and Nevin wasn’t exactly tearing up the basepaths anyway, so this shouldn’t change his game upon return. This does give me a chance to point at the attrition and drop rates that PECOTA has for Nevin. If you’re in a keeper league or are Kevin
Towers, take note.
Eric Chavez is not only a fast healer, he appears to be rust-resistant. In his start at Triple-A, Chavez came back with two singles and a
walk. He started at DH, but his fielding isn’t expected to be a problem. The rehab assignment is not expected to be a long one, so Chavez could be back later this week.
McKeon chose Larkin over Bobby Abreu, a reasonable MVP candidate in a world that just gives Barry Bonds the lifetime achievement award. He chose Larkin over J.D. Drew, who’s one of the only reasons to watch the Braves this year. Lyle Overbay appears on a lot of “snubbed” lists, and although I can forgive McKeon for not adding a fourth first baseman or third Brewer, Overbay clearly belongs ahead of Larkin.
As does Beltre. Regardless of whether I’d rather see the veteran I like over
the disappointment I have no attachment to, choosing Barry Larkin over any or
all of these players is a mistake. Based on the established criteria, and even
giving Larkin credit for his long and distinguished career, I can’t see snubbing players like Beltre and Abreu in favor of Larkin.
Still, the All-Star selection process has become a paint-by-numbers one, as the player selections and the various roster requirements fill out the teams without requiring much input from the managers. Maybe we should be thankful to
McKeon for adding some spice to the process.
Billy Wagner isn’t happy that 11-game winner Eric Milton was “snubbed” by Jack McKeon for the NL All-Star squad. Then again, he also doesn’t think ERA should factor into the decision-making process, so whatever. Gary Sheffield wants what may or may not be contractually his. Some current- and former-players talk about pitch counts, and there is shockingly some disagreement on the subject. Mariners president Chuck Armstrong is convinced that women and children care more about bright, shiny objects than on-field success, which is somehow supposed to justify giving Dan Wilson $3.5 million. Billy Beane is mad at Cal St. Fullerton coach George Horton. And Ozzie Guillen hates Wrigley field, and probably kicks puppies in his free time as well (Just kidding!). All this and many more quips in your Tuesday edition of The Week In Quotes.
Biggest Mismatchups (Largest disparity in records with one team over .500 and the other under .500): Minnesota @ Arizona
This is the time I make a confession and beg forgiveness. I come to you with hat in hand, although I don’t really own a hat, so that leads to another confession: I stole the hat in my hand so that I might come to you with hat in hand. In any case, back to my original confession: I picked the Diamondbacks to win the National League West. What was I thinking? I don’t even remember. I think I was trying to be “different.” Most folks were picking the Giants with a few renegades going for broke on a Padres upswing. Another tiny minority had the Dodgers. I guess I took all this in and decided I needed to be iconoclastic. Where did it get me? Coming to you with a stolen hat looking for absolution–that’s where.
Why should the Diamondbacks trade Randy Johnson? Because George Steinbrenner wants them to? What is this madness that has beset baseball wherein a team goes south for a year and is suddenly expected to offload every manjack on the team who has the talent to stick his head above replacement level? Arizona plays in a division built on a sandy loam. The Diamondbacks could very easily reload in the offseason and come back and cop this thing in 2005. Having Randy Johnson still in the fold would certainly help in that regard. In modern baseball it seems, we have come to expect that both babies and bathwater must both be drained to the sea.
The Red Sox take a gamble on Pedro Astacio. Andy Pettitte comes off the DL again for the Astros, while Wade Miller replaces him. The Indians bullpen will give erstwhile closer Bobby Howry a chance. And the Padres engage in some micromanagement that Chris finds absolutely maddening. All this amd much more news from around the league in your Friday edition of Transaction Analysis.
Kyle Lohse got no help last Sunday. The Minnesota starter was fairly effective in his outing against the Brewers, surrendering three runs through 6 2/3 innings, and leaving a bases-loaded, two-out situation for Aaron Fultz to deal with. If Fultz could retire Brady Clark, Lohse would have a Quality Start on his ledger, and the Twins would still be in the game. Instead, Fultz and successor Joe Roa surrendered a single and two walks, the game got out of hand, and Lohse was blamed for three extra runs that he only played a small part in allowing.
A few months ago, I talked about one side of this story–measuring how well relievers handle their inherited runners. But what about the starters? How much can bullpen support distort their numbers during the course of a season or a career? One way of measuring this is to compare the expected outcome of those inherited runners to the actual outcome. For example, those three runners Lohse left for his relievers with two outs would be expected to score 0.7 runs on average. That’s based on this year’s league scoring numbers, as well as the impact the Metrodome has on scoring. Since all three runners actually scored, Lohse’s relievers cost him 2.3 runs for that particular outing. Add those numbers up for a starter, and you have a measure of the season- or career-long bullpen support he received.