The Twins fritter away two live, young arms. The Mets get to mix and match in the outfield with Cliff Floyd and Karim Garcia missing time. The over/under on Jeffrey Hammonds hitting the DL again is the end of this sentence. These and other happenings in today’s Transaction Analysis.
The Red Sox won’t be using David McCarty on the mound again any time soon. The Reds hope their hot pitching can continue. The Padres’ bizarre Ryan Klesko usage patterns continue. These and other news and notes out of Boston, Cincinnati, and San Diego in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
The daily Mark Prior report is simple: unchanged. The Cubs laughed off Lawrence Rocca’s suggestion that Prior’s injury was really to his elbow and that he was headed for Tommy John surgery. Dusty Baker did everything but call Rocca a liar in comments after the game, so let’s try and put this to rest: Prior’s arm is simply not game-ready, as it would be for a typical pitcher starting spring training. It will take him between four and six weeks to get ready once the Achilles tendon is asymptomatic. If Prior had a bum elbow, he wouldn’t have played long toss in front of Christian Ruzich this winter and he wouldn’t be doing towel drills. The Cubs will be without Mark Grudzielanek for at least three weeks after an MRI showed fraying of his Achilles tendon. As with Prior, an Achilles is very difficult to get under control once tendinitis has set in. The acquisition of Todd Walker is looking very smart. The Cubs are also on the lookout for a shortstop with Alex Gonzalez struggling and Dusty Baker reportedly lacking confidence in Ramon Martinez in a starting role. While Orlando Cabrera’s name comes up in rumors, Craig Counsell is a likelier target.
No one wants to print out a batch of Prospectus statistical reports and take them to the game. So like MacGyver, we take some mental stats and make some ugly improvised devices. My goal is to make every step something I can do while drinking a beer–a quick bit of easy mental division and a comparison, for instance. And as a friend of mine was once advised by a fortune cookie: “If you want to find an easier way to do something, ask a lazy man.”
The term “luck” is actually shorthand for a more difficult concept, that when two playoff-caliber teams square off in a best-of-five or best-of-seven series, any result is reasonably likely. Just because a particular one occurs doesn’t reflect anything other than the events that made up that series: one player’s hot week, or one pitcher’s inability to throw his curve for strikes, or a baserunner’s ill-fated decision to take an extra base. These events do not, despite the mythology of October, enlighten us about the character or fortitude of people any more than Nate Robertson’s huge last week out of the bullpen does. Those things aren’t luck, they’re performance, and using the former word to describe them isn’t helping us make the larger concept accessible to more people.
This week’s grades are based on getaways, fast, slow, or N/A, with a healthy allowance for the biases that a small sample size encourages. In other words, we can call Victor Zambrano the Cy Young award winner after just three starts and excuse it as a moment of vernally-inspired hormonal exuberance. Still, with just one week in the bag every team on this list has been possessed by Chicken Little-style paranoia or Pollyannaish optimism, and their plans are being altered accordingly. Maybe you can’t trust TEAMS this week, but you can’t trust teams either. Caveat lector, caveat emptor, and laissez les bon temps rouler!
After the 1991 season, Commissioner Fay Vincent used his annual State of the Game address to declare: “The present salary situation is out of hand and small-market franchises cannot compete in this environment.” This in a year when the Minnesota Twins won the World Series, the Pittsburgh Pirates won their second of three consecutive NL East titles, and the Yankees finished 20 games under .500! In fact, of the four division winners, only Pittsburgh had even the third-highest payroll in its division. Toronto and Minnesota ranked fourth, while Atlanta ranked fifth.
He still had a fantastic career–you can make an argument that Mantle was the most valuable player in the American League for at least 10 years (he was first or second in runs created/game in 1952-1958, 1960-1962, and 1964, while playing a key defensive position), but many, including Stengel, were left wondering what the boy with the power of Ruth and the speed of Cobb would have done had he been completely healthy for even one season. His 1957-1958 performance, 358/.487/.686 in a league that hit .266/.343./.404, seemed only to scratch the surface. No one will ever know if their expectations were too high. Once Mantle’s knee was damaged the opportunity to find out vanished. Earlier this week, 20-year-old Twins rookie catcher Joe Mauer tore medial meniscus cartilage in his left knee sliding after a foul ball on the hard Metrodome turf. It is said to be a minor injury, though it still required surgery to repair. The catcher will be back on the field in about a month, and there are not expected to be any lingering consequences to Mauer’s assumedly glorious future. Yet, any sudden disruption of a young player’s career can have unanticipated consequences.
Stan Conte sounds like a politician when he discusses timeframes and prognosis for Robb Nen. Could be this week, could be this month, who knows? Could be fine, could be terrible, who knows? Actually, Stan’s simply being cautious and doing the job of getting Nen back right. While uncertainty is never fun, no one really knows until the task–in this case, pitching in the big leagues–is actually performed. My guess? We’ll know in the next two weeks, but seeing him throwing off the mound before Sunday’s game has to be a good sign. The Giants should get Jason Schmidt back late this week, but a final determination will be made after he throws a bullpen session Monday. A rehab start at Visalia went extremely well, as Schmidt lasted five innings and struck out seven high-A hitters.
Bud Selig is singing the same old tune. Mike Mussina is just happy to get a win. Chuck LaMar is happy to be employed. And everyone in Queens is expecting great things from Kazuo Matsui. All this and many more quips in your Monday edition of The Week In Quotes.
The Marlins’ Hee Seop Choi is a burgeoning star. Paul DePodesta made his biggest pick-up of the year in Milton Bradley. Mike Mussina finally won No. 200. And the Pirates have tied themselves to Lloyd McClendon and Dave Littlefield, despite a lack of on-field success. All this and much more news from Florida, Los Angeles, New York, and Pittsburgh in your Monday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
The lone major trade of DePo’s young tenure is one that made horse sense for both teams. The Tribe endeavored earnestly to ignore and address Bradley’s mounting peccadilloes, but even a forward-thinking organization can’t entirely discount matters of personality. Somewhat counterintuitively, the Indians were wise to deal with a GM as smart as DePodesta, who, despite Bradley’s waning credibility, still realized what a talent he was and, if pressed, was prepared to barter fairly for him. That’s what happened. Tribe GM Mark Shapiro walks away with the whiff of the earnest disciplinarian about him and a top-shelf power prospect in Gutierrez (who, at the age of 20, slugged an impressive .513 in the hurler-philic FSL) to boot. If the PTBN is anyone of consequence, it’s an even better deal for the Indians. As for the Dodgers, they get a genuine middle-of-the-order hitter who happens to capably man a key defensive position. Back in his native SoCal, Bradley can convalesce his rep, enjoy the charms of troop-friendly Jim Tracy and get back to wielding his considerable talents on the diamond. Everybody wins.