It’s not quite a Phil Nevin thing, in that you’ll have to take my word for it, but earlier today I was reading this article where Roy Oswalt was discussing his new adjustment to his pitching motion, a slight turn of his right (push) foot. My immediate thought was “Angle? Man, he’s going to hurt himself.” I won’t try to explain the mechanics of it in this short space, but stand up and try it yourself. Push off an invisible rubber with your foot both parallel and at an angle. Make sure you drive your leg and get a good hip rotation. Feel that? Yeah, so did Oswalt.
No determination has been made, but comments Oswalt made after the game seem to indicate that he’s headed back to the DL. Remember that red light? This clearly wasn’t what I was expecting, but longer term, the groin injury could take some of the stress off his arm. The Astros obviously have a great bullpen, but with their ace down again, that bullpen and the back of the rotation will be taxed. The extra workload could be a big factor in September.
While the Mariners are certainly one of the more creative teams when it comes to dealing with the DL, this latest tale surrounding Kaz Sasaki is perhaps too strange to be anything but true. If the suitcase story holds, then Sasaki should miss near the minimum. If not, and this is some cover for the back injury–or shoulder injury that many think Sasaki is dealing with–then it’s all up in the air. As in his last stint, we’ll know nothing from the normal channels on how to assess this.
It’s a cliché to say that the great thing about baseball is that you can always see something you’ve never seen before. Of course, comments like that reach the point of cliche because they’re true.
Last night, the Houston Astros lost their ace starter, Roy Oswalt, in the second inning to a groin injury. This messed them up so much that they went on to use five relievers in completing the first no-hitter against the Yankees in almost 45 years. Peter Munro, Kirk Saarloos, Brad Lidge, Octavio Dotel, and Billy Wagner combined to strike out 11 batters in tossing the first six-pitcher no-no in MLB history.
I’m a Yankee fan, and while I’m frustrated by this team’s lack of depth and its terrible problems scoring runs, this was just cool. There’s not a ton of analysis to be done here. No-hitters happen, and while the Astros’ bullpen is probably more likely to do it than your average starting pitcher–getting lots of strikeouts helps, and the five relievers who threw average 10.1 Ks per nine innings–it’s not like you can predict something like this. It was just one of those great baseball events, the kind of game that makes memories for the faithful and turns the uninitiated into fans.
As one might expect, the success of Michael Lewis’s great new book, Moneyball, has led to a number criticisms of Oakland Athletics’ GM Billy Beane, his staff, and their entire organizational philosophy. These criticisms should not have come as a surprise: Lewis presents Beane as a brilliant visionary operating in an antiquated system peopled, for the most part, with morons. There may be a great deal of truth to this, but the idea that some of Beane’s competitors would be defensive is understandable.
The most interesting criticism of the Athletics’ success is that as impressive as their regular season results have been, their style of play cannot succeed in the playoffs against quality competition. Sure, the Athletics win 100 games every year with one of the lowest payrolls in the game, but if they can’t win in the post-season, what good is it? This turns out to be a convenient critique since the A’s have lost in the first round of the playoffs for the past three seasons.
This criticism is not new, of course. Joe Morgan has been saying similar things for the last year or so: The A’s offense, which has relied mainly on reaching base and hitting home runs, is not effective in the post-season facing quality pitching. A team needs to be able to “manufacture runs”–steal bases, bunt, hit behind the runner, etc. The A’s do not, or cannot, do these things, so they are doomed to fall short in the playoffs. Or so the argument goes.
Continuing his series on the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, Doug Pappas looks at the ins and outs of MLB scheduling.
Don’t tell anyone, but I really enjoy watching Randall Simon hit. The loose, goofy motion in his stance as the ball approaches the plate; the flyswatter swing; the big-stepping follow through, his blubber, after half a second in gelatin-like suspension, mimicking the motion of his bat. It’s a lot of fun to watch, especially when Simon manages to make contact, which happens more often than you’d ever expect.
I’ve had the occasion, however, to watch Simon against Kerry Wood a couple of times this year, and from Randall’s point of view, the results have been disastrous: zero-for-six with four strikeouts. Not just any kind of strikeouts, mind you, but ugly, pirouetting, breeze-generating, no-chance-in-hell strikeouts, the sort that make you think that Simon could face Wood 500 times and go oh-fer.
I didn’t mind this, really; Wood is one of my favorite pitchers. But this particular matchup was interesting to watch because Simon and Wood are such an odd couple: Simon swings at everything, and never draws any walks, but by virtue of his superior hand-eye coordination, manages to keep his strikeout rate very low. Wood, on the other hand, is one of the toughest pitchers in the league to make contact against–though sometimes that’s because he isn’t throwing the ball anywhere near the strike zone. In any event, Simon’s performance against Wood looked so bad than I began to wonder whether the batter isn’t at some sort of systematic disadvantage in pairings of these types of players.
To study the question, I’ll leverage from a technique that Gary Huckabay and I introduced last month in a 6-4-3 column, comparing the actual performance observed when certain types of batter-pitcher pairings occur against the results predicted by Bill James’ log5 formula. Instead of dividing players up based on groundball and flyball rates, this time we’ll look at a quick-and-dirty index of plate discipline.
Some have noted that Mike Mussina appears to be running into trouble in the fifth or sixth innings and have asked if the Velocity Project is showing anything. The answer is no. It appears more that as he begins to tire, he throws more strikes and becomes more hittable. More hittable is bad, no matter what theory you believe in. Is it an indicator of an injury? No, I don’t think so. I’m less sure that it’s not simple aging. Ask me the same question about Al Leiter and you’ll get a similar answer.
After noticing a lack of muscle tone and getting Ellis Burks to admit to both pain and numbness in his hand, a series of tests were run to try and find a cause. It turns out that his ulnar nerve was impinged and caused all the problems. It will likely need to be surgically released and could cost Burks a good portion of the remaining season. With his career near its last legs, this trip to the DL could be the one that leads off into the sunset. The Indians brought up another piece of the future, Coco Crisp, to replace Burks. Some combination of Crisp, Jody Gerut, and Milton Bradley would be one heck of a young outfield.
If you thought Jermaine Dye still didn’t look right, you’re right. His knee is still acting up and needed draining tonight between BP and the game. It’s the legs that drain power when they’re injured, so don’t expect Dye to look like the masher he has been until he fully recovers the strength in his legs. Even with that bad wheel, Dye was able to make some nice defensive plays behind Tim Hudson.
Greg Maddux is acting like a flake; the Twins are absolutely hack-tastic; and the Devil Rays’ problems aren’t just at the major-league level. All this and much more on the Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins, and Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
Does Edgar Martinez belong in the Hall of Fame?
Edgar, in conventional terms, is a weird case. His career is outstanding, but limited by organizational incompetence at the early end, and his own desire to hang out with his family on the late end. He’s fragile, earlier injured badly too often in the field, dogged as he aged with hamstring injuries that slowed him. Because of this, his counting stats fall short, while his rate stats remain amazing (Edgar could easily finish this season in the top-10 hitters all time for his career on-base percentage, and top-20 all-time for his career slugging percentage).
A friend of mine who is smart and frequently argues for the intangibles, momentum, and chemistry aspects of baseball says that his ultimate Hall of Fame standard is that a player must transcend the sport for a period of time, to almost rise above the game, and that no player should even be considered unless they have dominated and changed the game around them. I like that standard, because it means Will Clark gets in while Rafael Palmeiro doesn’t.
The Cardinals summoned Jason Isringhausen from his rehab assignment to Boston on Monday. While the assumption is that he will be activated and available when they resume play in Fenway on Tuesday, the Cardinals aren’t yet committing to the move. By the time you read this, the Cardinals will have made the move, but waiting and evaluating is the smart thing to do in this case. The usage patterns of Isringhausen will remain an open question even after he is activated. I remain unconvinced that Izzy is anything more than an injury time bomb, waiting to explode inside an unsuspecting bullpen.
While A.J. Burnett sits and waits for his elbow to heal enough to just play catch again, Josh Beckett is hoping to avoid the same fate. The Marlins appear to be cautious with the comeback of their young potential ace, but if you try and figure out what the Marlins have in mind, you’ll often find yourself grabbing nothing but smoke. Beckett was back on a mound for the first time, throwing occasional breaking balls in a 50-pitch workout. (Odd how the Marlins learn to count during rehabilitation work.) Beckett remains on target for a July 1 return, but the caution could push him back to the All-Star break or further.
Mike Hampton’s injured groin will only cause one missed start for him. For the Braves, the interleague schedule and the extra off days should help Cox and Mazzone juggle the rotation without taxing the staff. Hampton will likely be back on the mound by the weekend.
Esteban Loaiza remains a shining light in a dim White Sox season. Woody Williams has been well worth the Cardinals’ money. The Rangers’ defense remains the worst in baseball. Plus other Prospectus Triple Play news and notes from Chicago, St. Louis, and Texas.
Joe Sheehan checks in on the 2003 Mariners, and sees a lot of similarities to the 116-win powerhouse of 2001. Can Stand Pat Gillick help push this year’s club over the top?
On Saturday, Roger Clemens missed again in his third try for career win
No. 300. Clemens pitched well for 6 2/3 innings, but was forced out of the game
by an upper respiratory infection having thrown just 84 pitches. In his wake,
Juan Acevedo surrendered a monster three-run home run to Eric
Karros–not easy for a right-handed pitcher–that was the crushing blow in
a 5-2 loss.
Clemens, of course, is going to get No. 300. He’s still a very good pitcher, and there’s no reason to expect that this will turn into a chase like Early
Wynn’s. Wynn notched career win No. 297 in July of 1962, then had just two
wins in his final 11 starts that season. He returned in 1963 to win No. 300–and only No. 300, in 20 appearances–before hanging them up for good.
The interesting thing about this mini-chase is that by struggling to reach his
landmark number, Clemens is illustrating the problem with pitcher wins as a
performance metric.
Sammy Sosa explains why his bat was a little lighter than usual; Professor Robert Adair explains why it doesn’t matter; George Steinbrenner thinks the world is out to get him; Bobby Kielty reads from the gospel according to Earl Weaver; and Scott Elarton reminds us why Colorado is such a unique environment. All this and much more in the newest edition of The Week In Quotes.
Brad Ausmus has been a huge drag on the Astros’ season. The Brewers’ Richie Sexson is the best first baseman in the NL right now. The A’s are thrilled that Brad Sullivan fell into their laps. Plus other Prospectus Triple Play news and notes out of Houston, Milwaukee, and Oakland.
The good news is that Hee Seop Choi will be OK and shouldn’t have any lasting effects from his concussion Saturday. It’s a scary sight for people to see someone unconscious and “locked” as Choi was after his head whipped into the hard Wrigley dirt. After being unconscious for more than two minutes, being taken off with all precautions, and following each step the situation called for, including a night in the hospital, Choi should return in about two weeks, no worse for the wear. Concussions are an interesting beast and everyone will react differently, but it is not a football-type situation where Choi is a recurrence risk. He has as much chance of falling and hitting his head like that as you or I do–probably less. Several sources are pointing to insurance as the reason for the DL posting and this is quite likely the case. The treatment of Choi was textbook concussion management and there’s no reason that should stop when Choi left the field of play and entered the field of lawyers and actuaries. If nothing else, this is a great showcase for David Kelton…and one that could finally lead to a trade for the Cubs.
Joe Sheehan’s analysis of Joe Garagiola Jr.’s trade history included a challenge to keep an open mind. I’m trying to, especially in the case of the acquisition of Shea Hillenbrand. No trade should be analyzed by any one measure. By my favorite measure, MLVr, the Diamondbacks made out like bandits. By injury analysis, Hillenbrand’s oblique injury would cloud things, but Kim’s earlier DL stint would be ignored since it was a freak, traumatic occurrence. Trades probably can’t even be analyzed properly for three years or more, but their very nature demands that they be dissected in every column, blog, and toilet stall from Roxbury to Mesa. All we can tell in this moment is that the severity of Hillenbrand’s injury won’t decide the fate of the 2003 season for the Diamondbacks. That fate was probably sealed long ago.
B.J. Surhoff and Deivi Cruz have compormising pictures of Orioles management. Darren Dreifort’s latest injury has the Dodgers pondering his future yet again. The Brewers may have grasped the concept of sunk costs. The Phillies’ bullpen is a mess. News, notes, and Kahrlisms from 25 major league teams in the latest edition of Transaction Analysis.